Oceania Health Safety and Wellness at Sea Protocols (Phase one)

[pinotlover]

2 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Because the economic model of a cruise ship won't work at 50% capacity unless they double fares.  Plus the 50% you are referring to is in restaurants, stores etc not in a home or hotel room.  I do believe they will do some measures in "spread people out" in public places.

I also believe that we are only in Month 3. A month ago most everything was shut down. Now we’re at 50%. Come back in 3 more months when sailing begins 75-80%, perhaps more, will probably be in effect. 
 

If one projects current conditions ahead indefinitely, they quickly look foolish.

[clo]

16 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Because the economic model of a cruise ship won't work at 50% capacity unless they double fares.  Plus the 50% you are referring to is in restaurants, stores etc not in a home or hotel room.  I do believe they will do some measures in "spread people out" in public places.

I'm on a food site and no one expects restaurants to survive at 50%. 

[KirkNC]

13 minutes ago, clo said:

I'm on a food site and no one expects restaurants to survive at 50%. 

I agree, many in our area are not even reopening with that restriction.

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

Because the economic model of a cruise ship won't work at 50% capacity unless they double fares.  Plus the 50% you are referring to is in restaurants, stores etc not in a home or hotel room.  I do believe they will do some measures in "spread people out" in public places.

Right now, the cruiselines are bleeding cash.  Their cash flow is negative because there is no revenue coming in and they still have to pay their workers and they have to pay off their loans.  Being profitable is requirement for all business if they do not have any kind of subsidies.  In this current situation they know they will likely be profitable again when a vaccine is available or, by some miracle, the virus melts away like the SARS virus.  Cruiselines may not be profitable at 50% capacity, but their cashflow may be positive at that point with a little help from the creditors.  Cruiselines only assets are the cruiseships themselves and perhaps a Caribbean island.  Creditors really can't do anything with those ships if they repossess them because who is going to buy them?  They can't convert them to other services (floating hotels might be possible, but it is a rather limited market too).  The only other option is scrap metal which is probably the worst option.  Both cruiselines and its creditors are in the same sinking ship, pardon the pun.  For now, every cruise line need to manage their cash flow in order to stay afloat until the vaccine is available.

[KirkNC]

14 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Right now, the cruiselines are bleeding cash.  Their cash flow is negative because there is no revenue coming in and they still have to pay their workers and they have to pay off their loans.  Being profitable is requirement for all business if they do not have any kind of subsidies.  In this current situation they know they will likely be profitable again when a vaccine is available or, by some miracle, the virus melts away like the SARS virus.  Cruiselines may not be profitable at 50% capacity, but their cashflow may be positive at that point with a little help from the creditors.  Cruiselines only assets are the cruiseships themselves and perhaps a Caribbean island.  Creditors really can't do anything with those ships if they repossess them because who is going to buy them?  They can't convert them to other services (floating hotels might be possible, but it is a rather limited market too).  The only other option is scrap metal which is probably the worst option.  Both cruiselines and its creditors are in the same sinking ship, pardon the pun.  For now, every cruise line need to manage their cash flow in order to stay afloat until the vaccine is available.

I agree but remember to sail a ship requires more cash outflow (more crew, fuel etc) then just floating around.  Also the first few sailings probably will be much less then capacity if not for virus reason, due to a lack of customers.  My 50% comment was meant as a response to 50% being the normal OP, it won’t work for long.  Also on the vaccine.  I think too many think it’s a silver bullet, I don’t.  First they have to develop it (usually an 18 month process though in this case it maybe shorter, like a year).  Then they have to make and distribute enough for it to work in a herd immunity mode.  China’s leading vaccine company stated they maybe able to produce 100 million doses a year, that means 14 years just to cover China.  Also I have read a lot about smallpox, the last virus to be eradicated.  It took several hundred years from the time the vaccine was developed.  The US began a intensive campaign in the 1940’s to get everyone vaccinated but it still took until 1980 before it was eradicated. 

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

I agree but remember to sail a ship requires more cash outflow (more crew, fuel etc) then just floating around.  Also the first few sailings probably will be much less then capacity if not for virus reason, due to a lack of customers.  My 50% comment was meant as a response to 50% being the normal OP, it won’t work for long.  Also on the vaccine.  I think too many think it’s a silver bullet, I don’t.  First they have to develop it (usually an 18 month process though in this case it maybe shorter, like a year).  Then they have to make and distribute enough for it to work in a herd immunity mode.  China’s leading vaccine company stated they maybe able to produce 100 million doses a year, that means 14 years just to cover China.  Also I have read a lot about smallpox, the last virus to be eradicated.  It took several hundred years from the time the vaccine was developed.  The US began a intensive campaign in the 1940’s to get everyone vaccinated but it still took until 1980 before it was eradicated. 

Obviously, you don't have a positive outlook in the future, perhaps too realistic??  Anyway, to be a CEO of a cruiseline, do you want to want wait for a vaccine while your company is bleeding cash?  will there even be a vaccine?  if so, when will it be available?  Right now, there doesn't seem to be an obvious path for a cruise line to take.  Every decision that they take is probably risky.  Will it be the brave that survive or the timid?  Que sera sera!

[clo]

2 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

they still have to pay their workers

I didn't know that.

[clo]

23 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Que sera sera!

Are there industries that have entirely or mostly gone extinct?

[ORV]

17 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Because the economic model of a cruise ship won't work at 50% capacity unless they double fares.  

Yet every forum here is full of people who think the prices are going to be bargain basement. Not sure of the logic on that one. 

[Paulchili]

24 minutes ago, ORV said:

Yet every forum here is full of people who think the prices are going to be bargain basement. Not sure of the logic on that one. 

They just may be at first to get started. They might operate with some losses (as they are now) but people will get braver - or there will be a vaccine - and then they can start making up for the losses (hopefully slowly & a little at a time rather than doubling the fares)

[KirkNC]

28 minutes ago, ORV said:

Yet every forum here is full of people who think the prices are going to be bargain basement. Not sure of the logic on that one. 

It will be an interesting push pull on pricing.  Obviously it is going to be driven by demand.  My best guess is lower prices initially.  Once things pick up and if they pick up enough, I would expect higher prices to pay for lower guest count, interest on debt,  more staff and ship layout changes like hepa filters and such.

Edited June 6, 2020 by KirkNC

[ORV]

Another school of thought I see here is that there is already a high demand due to the amount of FCC's that have been issued is the last few months, causing a backlog of bookings, which will get them past the initial re starting period. Lots of factors in this. 

[deadzone1003]

20 hours ago, susiesan said:

I am in the air filter business, have been for 36 years. The filters Oceania is using are not true HEPA filters. This is a marketing gimmick, it is a false claim. But it will make people feel better. MERV 13 filters are an upgrade and won't hurt anything but they won't really do much for any of the larger rooms/venues. A lot of these kind of protocols are nothing but pandemic theater, set dressing. They give the illusion of doing something but really don't.

HEPA 13 or MERV 13 filters only remove bacteria as far as the internet tells me.  You need a rating of 15 to 20 for viruses.  Susiesan, maybe you should start a new thread on the topic.  How much of a price difference between a filter with a rating of 13 to one of 15?    

[susiesan]

3 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

HEPA 13 or MERV 13 filters only remove bacteria as far as the internet tells me.  You need a rating of 15 to 20 for viruses.  Susiesan, maybe you should start a new thread on the topic.  How much of a price difference between a filter with a rating of 13 to one of 15?    

it's not about the price difference, it's about system design. You can't just put a HEPA filter in where a lower rated filter was. HEPA filters are actually MERV !6. You would need to completely retrofit and overhaul your air handling system and this is not possible on a cruise ship. This is a very complicated and technical subject. If Oceania is putting in MERV 13 rated filters in place of whatever they have been using, It is not a bad thing. But it will not result in hospital level indoor air quality.

[deadzone1003]

25 minutes ago, susiesan said:

it's not about the price difference, it's about system design. You can't just put a HEPA filter in where a lower rated filter was. HEPA filters are actually MERV !6. You would need to completely retrofit and overhaul your air handling system and this is not possible on a cruise ship. This is a very complicated and technical subject. If Oceania is putting in MERV 13 rated filters in place of whatever they have been using, It is not a bad thing. But it will not roesult ino hospitalo leveooooooooooooooooooooooooool indoor air quality.

Susiesan,

Thanks for the info.  I am aware of the virus traveling through the air by respiratory droplets or aerosol.  The droplets are too big and heavy to even make up to the vents, much less make it to the filter.  Aerosol can make it up to the vents.  I guess the question is "Are the aerosol particles too big to make it through the HEPA 13 filter?  I haven't been able to find any info in that regard.  

[Paulchili]

Here is my guess.

Maybe MERV 13 may not be sufficient as a mask to stop the virus but as it is estimated that droplets travel about 6 ft or so, I can't imagine them traveling through the filtration system of the ship from cabin to cabin?

[Redtravel]

  Cleaning the ship is a good start. Each time the ship docks, guests could introduce the virus when they reboard. 

[njhorseman]

4 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Here is my guess.

Maybe MERV 13 may not be sufficient as a mask to stop the virus but as it is estimated that droplets travel about 6 ft or so, I can't imagine them traveling through the filtration system of the ship from cabin to cabin?

If I understand what Cruise  Critic's resident chief engineer, chengkp75, has said in numerous posts, air is not shared among cabins anyway. 

[clo]

4 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

If I understand what Cruise  Critic's resident chief engineer, chengkp75, has said in numerous posts, air is not shared among cabins anyway. 

I thought I remembered that also. That the air comes from outside?

[njhorseman]

1 minute ago, clo said:

I thought I remembered that also. That the air comes from outside?

Yes...it comes from the outside.

[clo]

12 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Yes...it comes from the outside.

Cool. I wasn't nuts. Well, not about that anyway.

[susiesan]

The filter ratings refer to the size of particles that may be in droplets that make it to a filter. A filter rated MERV 13 will stop 55% of particles in the size range of 1 to 3 microns. The best way to keep particles in the air down is to bring in 100% outside air. There will be no virus particles in the air. If some return air is being mixed with outside air that is where the filters would come in. I do not know where on a cruise ship air system the filters are located. If each cabin has its own air handling system bringing in outside air and exhausting it back out then the filters are just for show as far as trapping virus particles goes. The primary purposel of an air filter is to protect the equipment. Secondary it to provide an acceptable level of indoor air quality based on the needs of the space.

BTW, thee is no such thing as a MERV 13 HEPA. 

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

If I understand what Cruise  Critic's resident chief engineer, chengkp75, has said in numerous posts, air is not shared among cabins anyway. 

That may well be - I don't remember reading that.

In that case what air is being filtered - air in common spaces?

[deadzone1003]

Don't most a/c units use some new air from the outside and reuse mostly re-circulated air?  If you use all outside air, the fuel cost would be astronomical, especially in the tropics.  If there is no shared air in the passenger cabins, there is really no need for filters in the cabins.  I suspect the filters are used for the public areas and hallways.  Are there a/c for the elevators?  That is one area where they really need the filters, maybe MERV 15.

[njhorseman]

38 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

That may well be - I don't remember reading that.

In that case what air is being filtered - air in common spaces?

Yes, the air in common spaces.

 

Here's an explanation of how a ship's cabin AC system works that he posted on May 6 on the Holland America board:

 

"Nope.  There are two AC systems.  One system takes fresh outside air, cools it, and delivers it to blocks of cabins (no mixing of air, straight from outside to cabin).  This system is balanced by the bathroom exhaust, which takes air from a bank of cabins, and delivers it outside (again, no mixing between cabins, straight from cabins to outside).  The other system recirculates air within a cabin, sending it over a separate cooler, controlled by the cabin thermostat.  

 

Now, the fresh air supply system delivers slightly more air to the cabin than the bathroom exhaust takes away, keeping the cabin under a slight positive pressure, with regards to outside and the passageway, in order to keep smoke from migrating into cabins during a fire.  When you prop open the balcony door, creating a large opening, the pressure in that cabin drops to outside pressure, and the fresh air delivery system all flows to that cabin (since every other cabin is at a higher pressure, the air flows in the path of least resistance, to the one place where the pressure is lowest, the cabin with the open balcony door).  This means that all the remaining cabins receive less cool fresh air, and they start to warm up.  That is the interrelationship between cabins, but again, there is no ducting that takes air from multiple cabins and recirculates it back to multiple cabins."