Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[TeeRick]

9 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

I concur as a layperson, using the internet, I haven't found and data that calls for spacing vaccinations, but I personally know physicians that advocate spacing.   I know that when I got some vaccinations for our safari to Africa that was postponed until next year, getting Hepatitis A and B, we had to get two shots, spaced out.  Not sure why that was the case.

Actually there are schedules for certain vaccines to maximize the acquired immunity.  Some schedules for adults where more than one dose required like HepB.  But the spacing of different unrelated vaccines is different than schedules for the same vaccine.  I'm sure some physicians do this for a variety of reasons one being to save your sore arm.  

[markeb]

17 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

I will. I have read a couple of opinion pieces and editorials from people with the knowledge to make educated guesses, that cell-mediated would turn out to be the major immune mechanism. But that doesn’t preclude making a vaccine when you find the right target? Just means it’s much harder to make a vaccine that prevents infection, vs preventing disease.

 

Interesting question. You'd think the humoral response would block cell entry, and the CMI would deal with infected cells.A mix from a vaccine would be good, but I don't think the SPIKE is expressed on the surface of an infected cell, so you'd need at least one more antigenic target in the mix.

 

The biggest question in the vaccine trials will probably be how well antibody response correlates to protection. If it's a good correlation, you can use titres to predict vaccine intervals, booster schedules, etc. 

[edgekid]

I agree with a mandated vaccine at least as it pertains to cruising... However my possible scenario is a little different.. regardless of whether we get a vaccine or not if we cruise and ONE person gets the virus aren't we in the same exact situation where all passengers will be quarantined? We have a cruise booked for September 2021 and honestly I can't see any scenario where we will be 100% comfortable regarding a possible quarantine situation.

Really hope I'm wrong about that.

 

 

Edited July 11, 2020 by edgekid

[Ken the cruiser]

5 minutes ago, edgekid said:

I agree with a mandated vaccine at least as it pertains to cruising... However my possible scenario is a little different.. regardless of whether we get a vaccine or not if we cruise and ONE person gets the virus aren't we in the same exact situation where all passengers will be quarantined? We have a cruise booked for September 2021 and honestly I can't see any scenario where we will be 100% comfortable regarding a possible quarantine situation.

Really hope I'm wrong about that.

 

 

One would think by Sep 2021, if a multitude of vaccines and treatments are available around the world, life should be relatively safe on a cruise. In addition my guess is most cruisers will be a lot more health conscious than they ever were prior to the pandemic. But of course for now that’s all just wishful thinking. 
 

[phoenix_dream]

2 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

I concur as a layperson, using the internet, I haven't found and data that calls for spacing vaccinations, but I personally know physicians that advocate spacing.   I know that when I got some vaccinations for our safari to Africa that was postponed until next year, getting Hepatitis A and B, we had to get two shots, spaced out.  Not sure why that was the case.

I am neither a scientist nor a doctor.  But I can tell you about my experience a couple of years ago getting a pneumonia vaccine and a flu vaccine at the same time.  NEVER again!!  Arm pain, fever, headache, body aches, etc..  Never had any of that with the flu vaccine alone (even the higher dosage one I get now).  Am I 100% positive the pneumonia shot wouldn't have caused those symptoms anyway?  No, but doing some online research it didn't sound like those were common symptoms so I believe it was due to having them both the same day.

[Fouremco]

1 minute ago, phoenix_dream said:

I am neither a scientist nor a doctor.  But I can tell you about my experience a couple of years ago getting a pneumonia vaccine and a flu vaccine at the same time.  NEVER again!!  Arm pain, fever, headache, body aches, etc..  Never had any of that with the flu vaccine alone (even the higher dosage one I get now).  Am I 100% positive the pneumonia shot wouldn't have caused those symptoms anyway?  No, but doing some online research it didn't sound like those were common symptoms so I believe it was due to having them both the same day.

DW and I both had our annual flu shots (seniors version) and our pneumonia shots on the same day with no untoward reaction. I guess we all react differently. 

[cangelmd]

11 hours ago, MMastell said:

I have a definite underlying condition, a heart transplant and I am on immunosuppressant medications. I will wait a few months before taking the vaccine. I remember the "mandated" vaccine for the flu of 1976. It was a fiasco. The rush for a vaccine culminated in using a live virus and causing a number of health problems including Guillain-Barre  syndrome in hundreds of people. 

 

Take care,

Mike

The best to you, you are blessed to be alive, and I presume enjoying life.

 We should all get vaccinated so that people in your position don’t have to worry so much!

 

 I too remember the vaccine fiasco of 1976, I missed getting the shot by a hair. I was a college freshman and a group of us got together to go get the vaccine, but I had a bad cold and Student Health wouldn’t give me the vaccine, the second wave of vaccination never happened.

 

i think we’ve made some improvements since then, but you are wise to wait. Hope you have more future cruise memories

[cangelmd]

4 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

I wish there is more focus on blood types as the few studies studies seem to suggest that those with A blood types have the worst symptoms while those with O blood types seems to have the least symptoms.  B tends to be neutral and AB, which is the most rare, greatly varies by study.  No study has pointed out whether the blood type is negative or positive if that makes any difference.

They are working on that, but from what I’ve seen published, this may not lead to any treatment or vaccine, so the research is a little more on the back burner

[Fogfog]

On 7/9/2020 at 7:14 PM, Ken the cruiser said:

We sure hope so. We are in our late 60s, and had the measles and mumps when we were little, but we just got a MMR vaccine at our local pharmacy because everything we read was really positive towards reducing the affects of COVID if we get it, which so far we've been able to avoid. But we figure it's going to take a readily available vaccine before cruising will start up again.

 

So far we've heard positive things about AstraZenica and now Pfizer, who are both hoping to start distributing a vaccine in the October time frame if all goes well in their stage 3 testing starting later this month and, of course for US folks, CDC subsequently gives them the go ahead. Here's hoping to their success as we really miss going on cruises!!!

Surprising

Had not heard anything about MMR vaccine being of any help re covid

 

No interest in vaccine at this time.

 

According to Mayo MDs we spoke with-- they aren't even excited about the "antibodies" testing as  being reliable

...and there is no knowledge of "for how long" or if those antibodies really do protect one.

 

I have wondered if those who normally don't get a flu vaccine (or the pneumonia one if one is age-eligible) will get them. Less than half those who can get a flu vax do so

Have wondered how many get the shingles vax

[NutsAboutGolf]

11 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

They are working on that, but from what I’ve seen published, this may not lead to any treatment or vaccine, so the research is a little more on the back burner

 

It's could determine a way to determine how at risk you are.  We don't need vaccine medical experts stop their vaccine developments, just need an average Joe to compile blood type data.

[Fouremco]

19 minutes ago, Fogfog said:

I have wondered if those who normally don't get a flu vaccine (or the pneumonia one if one is age-eligible) will get them. Less than half those who can get a flu vax do so

Have wondered how many get the shingles vax

We get them all. Costs us nothing and we have protection, even if less than 100% in some cases. We will get the COVID-19 vaccination too as soon as it becomes available to us.

[neilrr]

24 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

We get them all. Costs us nothing and we have protection, even if less than 100% in some cases. We will get the COVID-19 vaccination too as soon as it becomes available to us.

Hi there... I would wait just a bit to make sure there are no major side effects.  As a business person and not a scientist -- I like to be on the"leading edge" and not the "bleeding edge."  I definitely want the vaccine, BUT I do not want to be the first one in the door to get it... 😁

   

Edited July 11, 2020 by neilrr

[Fouremco]

2 minutes ago, neilrr said:

Hi there... I would wait just a bit to make sure there are no major side effects.  As a business person and not a scientist -- I like to be on the"leading edge" and not the "bleeding edge."  I definitely want the vaccine, BUT I do not want to be the first one in the door to get it... 😁

   

Good point, but I think that by time the vaccine is actually made available for the average person, it will have been out there for some time, administered to high-priority recipients. Also, I would hope that the whole development and testing process leading up to approval by national health authorities would ensure that there are no major side effects, although I sadly recognize that there have been some serious mistakes made in the past. Hopefully the haste to develop the vaccine won't result in shortcuts being taken at any level.

[ipeeinthepool]

5 hours ago, edgekid said:

I agree with a mandated vaccine at least as it pertains to cruising... However my possible scenario is a little different.. regardless of whether we get a vaccine or not if we cruise and ONE person gets the virus aren't we in the same exact situation where all passengers will be quarantined?

 

 

 

I don't think so.  I'll suggest that passengers or crew that can show that they have been vaccinated or have antibodies would be allowed to leave the ship. 

[edgekid]

2 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I don't think so.  I'll suggest that passengers or crew that can show that they have been vaccinated or have antibodies would be allowed to leave the ship. 

So, to be clear you are suggesting that if someone gets sick on the second day the cruise continues as planned ; the sick people stay quarantined and we can just continue as if everything is okay..??

 

 

[ipeeinthepool]

Just now, edgekid said:

So, to be clear you are suggesting that if someone gets sick on the second day the cruise continues as planned ; the sick people stay quarantined and we can just continue as if everything is okay..??

 

 

 

Yep.  I'll suggest that the sick person is quarantined and cared for on the ship or is evacuated by the cruise line and the rest of the cruise continues.  A common theme among several proposals is that the cruise line has to care for the person without involving the local resources.

[edgekid]

2 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Yep.  I'll suggest that the sick person is quarantined and cared for on the ship or is evacuated by the cruise line and the rest of the cruise continues.  A common theme among several proposals is that the cruise line has to care for the person without involving the local resources.

Well I hope you're right.. that would be an ideal scenario to cruise again

Edited July 11, 2020 by edgekid

[ipeeinthepool]

1 minute ago, edgekid said:

Well I hope you're right.. that would be an ideal scenario to cruise again

 

At sometime in the future everyone will need to accept that there are no perfect solutions.  Countries can't shutdown their countries from tourism forever and tourists will also need to accept some risk that the vaccine may not be 100% effective.  Everyone will need to find a way to live with the virus.  Vaccines and improved treatment methods will reduce the occurrence of the virus and reduced mortality rates.  

[edgekid]

13 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

At sometime in the future everyone will need to accept that there are no perfect solutions.  Countries can't shutdown their countries from tourism forever and tourists will also need to accept some risk that the vaccine may not be 100% effective.  Everyone will need to find a way to live with the virus.  Vaccines and improved treatment methods will reduce the occurrence of the virus and reduced mortality rates.  

Agreed.

I would hope that by the time we are cruising, September 2021, we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect...

[NantahalaCruiser]

17 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

2)  If a somewhat effective vaccine is created, it will go to the venerable first, healthy folks will be last, will take some time, probably at least two years

 

While I agree that 1st responders and those in senior adult care facilities will undoubtedly be the first to receive vaccines, I seriously doubt that it will take at least two years to provide vaccines to anyone that wishes them.

 

As an example AstraZenica announced last May that they had already signed agreements to produce 400 million doses with initial deliveries in September 2020.  They also announced that they had secured manufacturing capacity to produce "one billion doses through 2020 and into 2021" and that they had received support of more than $1 billion from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for the development, production and delivery of the vaccine, starting in the fall.  My guess is that other vaccine developers are doing something similar - producing mass quantities of the proposed vaccine prior to its approval.

 

So if and when a vaccine is approved, it will very likely be made available to most that wish to take advantage of it in a matter of months rather than years.

[Fouremco]

23 minutes ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

While I agree that 1st responders and those in senior adult care facilities will undoubtedly be the first to receive vaccines, I seriously doubt that it will take at least two years to provide vaccines to anyone that wishes them.

 

As an example AstraZenica announced last May that they had already signed agreements to produce 400 million doses with initial deliveries in September 2020.  They also announced that they had secured manufacturing capacity to produce "one billion doses through 2020 and into 2021" and that they had received support of more than $1 billion from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for the development, production and delivery of the vaccine, starting in the fall.  My guess is that other vaccine developers are doing something similar - producing mass quantities of the proposed vaccine prior to its approval.

 

So if and when a vaccine is approved, it will very likely be made available to most that wish to take advantage of it in a matter of months rather than years.

Another factor to take into consideration when forecasting the time that will be required to vaccinate any significant number of people are the human resources required to actually administer the vaccine. If healthcare workers continue to be pushed to their limits dealing with infected patients,  even without a potential double whammy of a second wave during flu season, the problem may not be a lack of vaccine but a lack of qualified people to give the vaccinations. 

[Ken the cruiser]

25 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Another factor to take into consideration when forecasting the time that will be required to vaccinate any significant number of people are the human resources required to actually administer the vaccine. If healthcare workers continue to be pushed to their limits dealing with infected patients,  even without a potential double whammy of a second wave during flu season, the problem may not be a lack of vaccine but a lack of qualified people to give the vaccinations. 

You would think there would be plenty of pharmacies in any town or city that would be able to accommodate the demand for the vaccine. After all, it only takes, including the paperwork, 5-10 minutes to administer. 

[Ride-The-Waves]

10 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I do not think that at least in the US anyway that a successful COVID vaccine will be mandatory.  And it would be regulated at the state health department level.  Not the Federal level.  A Federal mandatory vaccine would be unprecedented and not easy to monitor and enforce.  And what about non-US citizens in the US,  Visa holders and dare I say the large non-legal population in the US many who will be afraid to register for any vaccination effort? A good portion of our population will not even wear masks even if mandated by some state governors so I would not expect everybody to comply with vaccine mandates.  It will become another Bill of Rights thing.  It is very possible that public schools and public universities could require it to attend.  Other vaccines have these requirements but a portion of the population still refuse to vaccinate and home school.  So we can only make our own decisions and choose to protect ourselves and our families (or not). 

 

For travel, cruising, port entry there may in fact be mandates by individual countries.  But then people can make their own decision about those things.  If important enough to them they will get vaccinated.  In any scenario, initial doses of a vaccine will likely go to people most at risk, first responders and health care workers.  Maybe also to people required to travel for employment purposes.  It will not be likely that we casual cruisers will be near the top of the list.  Also the vaccine might need to be in multiple shots with a priming period and a boosting period (or two).  Even with a vaccine it might take a year or more to be fully protected in that scenario.  So there is a very long way to go.

At this time (CDC and State) vaccines for these diseases are currently required for U.S. immigration:

• Mumps
• Measles
• Rubella
• Polio
• Tetanus and diphtheria
• Pertussis
• Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib)
• Hepatitis A
• Hepatitis B
• Rotavirus
• Meningococcal disease
• Varicella
• Pneumococcal disease
• Seasonal influenza

[Fouremco]

5 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

You would think there would be plenty of pharmacies in any town or city that would be able to accommodate the demand for the vaccine. After all, it only takes, including the paperwork, 5-10 minutes to administer. 

That may or may not be true in the US, but bear in mind that there were only 13 countries in the world that allowed pharmacists to give vaccinations as of 2017, although that number may have since increased, and not all jurisdictions within all of these countries allow pharmacists to administer vaccines.

[hcat]

6 hours ago, Fouremco said:

DW and I both had our annual flu shots (seniors version) and our pneumonia shots on the same day with no untoward reaction. I guess we all react differently. 

2 yrs ago the flu shot knocked both me and dh on our butts... never had any issue before or since..guess  it all depends!

 

  Now we have to get the upgraded shingles vaccines.( 2 sep doses).. but we will wait til we get back to Fla when we are not watching our grandchildren..just in case!