Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[markeb]

3 minutes ago, Lady Chew said:

Where did you get your shot?  We were told that physician/hospital practices would no longer be able to give the vaccine.  And the Virginia registration system has been a complete failure.  We are very frustrated.  1B, both of us.

 

Military Healthcare System. Separate pool of vaccines (like Veteran's Healthcare) from the state. Yes to all for Virginia. I think it's going to get better, but the decentralized county level process was a mess. We'll see how the new single registration process works. Pharmacies are coming online, but they're also overwhelmed.

[Lady Chew]

Oh, that's right, you had earlier mentioned your military eligibility!!  Very glad you got your shot ... and very jealous!  Our county was really ramping things up, and then the state said, uh, no, now you have to use our registration system, and that's really screwed everything.  We're also checking the pharmacies (CVS, etc) but nothing popping yet.  We're still trying to be patient ... but the mess with the state system is almost the last straw!  

[highway180]

10 hours ago, Lady Chew said:

Oh, that's right, you had earlier mentioned your military eligibility!!  Very glad you got your shot ... and very jealous!  Our county was really ramping things up, and then the state said, uh, no, now you have to use our registration system, and that's really screwed everything.  We're also checking the pharmacies (CVS, etc) but nothing popping yet.  We're still trying to be patient ... but the mess with the state system is almost the last straw!  

i feel your pain. Here is Ma the central booking site, vaxfinder, has literally been a joke. the system crashes, kicks you while waiting. Yesterday while trying to schedule an appointment for a relative, the site went from 2 hour wait to 1 hour , then to 2256 hours!!

not a fun experience.

i ended up booking directly on the CVS website, much easier to navigate, no system crashing

 

[Homosassa]

There was a recent TV news update form a local epidemiologist at the University of South Florida. The gentleman has been spot on in all his forecasts about Covid 19 here in Florida.

 

His report was mixed. While vaccinations are ongoing in Florida for those 65 and over and new case numbers appear to be dropping, he feels that Florida will have a new surge in cases by the middle of March.

 

This is due to several factors:

 

1. The ongoing lack of consistent state wide controls on social distancing and mask wearing.

2. Florida is still a prime destination for those looking for warmer temperatures and the lack of controls on social interactions.

3. Most new cases and spread is occurring among  those below the elderly population (20 - 50 years old).

4. Florida is the hot spot for the more transmissible strains of Covid 19.

5. We have had recent super spreader events in Florida that has bought in even larger numbers of out of state visitors. We are also going into spring break season.

 

As a result, he sees numbers here in the state surging back up and those out of state visitors spreading those new strains across the country.

 

This is not good news for any of us hoping that cruising will start any time  from Florida ports. 

 

I will be cancelling our July 2021 cruise from Miami. I don't see any cruiseline sailing from Florida this summer.

 

(Side note: I wonder if history books will have Florida state labeled as the "Covid Mary" of the pandemic in the USA).

[cangelmd]

Major news outlets are reporting a possible plateauing of cases,?beginning of the next surge?

In our state data I think it is too early to tell - the unusually bad weather last week I think has skewed the data for that week and this week - I bet since the cold was so widespread that it affected national data as well. The decline during the cold wasn’t as large as reported. In Alabama early this week there was a big one day jump up then back down - my guess is that it was weather related.

[markeb]

2 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Major news outlets are reporting a possible plateauing of cases,?beginning of the next surge?

In our state data I think it is too early to tell - the unusually bad weather last week I think has skewed the data for that week and this week - I bet since the cold was so widespread that it affected national data as well. The decline during the cold wasn’t as large as reported. In Alabama early this week there was a big one day jump up then back down - my guess is that it was weather related.

 

Virginia reported what looks like some aberrantly high death counts a week or so ago, but it's now looking like a lot of that was weather and holiday related delays in processing death certificates. Could be you're seeing some of that as well, especially from areas hit by the cold so hard last week.

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

A question and a comment or two.

 

There are some 2.5B children.  Will there be an attempt to vaccinate them?  If so how far into the future?

 

As to full vaccination - seems that countries such as China and Russia where choice is not a word used often will be first.

 

For poorer countries the logistics of getting the people and vaccine seem to be the big task.  As production ramps up into the billions of doses the costs drop significantly and wealthier countries have already promised large sums for vaccines and syringes.  Years ago spent time in Paraguay.  When there was an outbreak of some type of jungle fever the military simply mobilized and the entire country was vaccinated in a week.

Do children in very poor countries who suffer from malnutrition and other poverty related diseases become more susceptible to COVID?  Here is an interesting article in Lancet.

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)31647-0/fulltext

 

[TeeRick]

22 hours ago, nocl said:

2.8 billion out of the 6.8 billion outside of the rich countries still leaves 4 billion without the resources of India and China.  As I mentioned above even with the manufacturing capability that India (1%) and China (3%) has their rate of vaccination indicates that it will be a long time before their populations can be considered to be fully vaccinated.

A bit more on this topic.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covax-why-biden-s-billions-won-t-fix-covid-vaccine-n1258816

[jagoffee]

1 hour ago, Homosassa said:

There was a recent TV news update form a local epidemiologist at the University of South Florida. The gentleman has been spot on in all his forecasts about Covid 19 here in Florida.

 

His report was mixed. While vaccinations are ongoing in Florida for those 65 and over and new case numbers appear to be dropping, he feels that Florida will have a new surge in cases by the middle of March.

 

This is due to several factors:

 

1. The ongoing lack of consistent state wide controls on social distancing and mask wearing.

2. Florida is still a prime destination for those looking for warmer temperatures and the lack of controls on social interactions.

3. Most new cases and spread is occurring among  those below the elderly population (20 - 50 years old).

4. Florida is the hot spot for the more transmissible strains of Covid 19.

5. We have had recent super spreader events in Florida that has bought in even larger numbers of out of state visitors. We are also going into spring break season.

 

As a result, he sees numbers here in the state surging back up and those out of state visitors spreading those new strains across the country.

 

This is not good news for any of us hoping that cruising will start any time  from Florida ports. 

 

I will be cancelling our July 2021 cruise from Miami. I don't see any cruiseline sailing from Florida this summer.

 

(Side note: I wonder if history books will have Florida state labeled as the "Covid Mary" of the pandemic in the USA).

Since 75% of the vaccine shots administered in FL have been to those 65 years and older, it would make sense that the younger people will continue to have more positive test results.  Since the deaths are statistically among the elderly, the death rate/numbers should drop.  
We will see in April whether the projection you posted will be correct and what impact more cases with the young people will have.  

[CRUISEFAN0001]

On 2/17/2021 at 2:01 PM, nocl said:

WAs not talking about the 4 cases in Oregon which has nothing to do with what I was talking about.  The Oregon cases are merely those that the vaccine was not efficacious for, which in a million immunized would be about 50,000.

 

I was referring to those that have not been vaccinated, but have been previously infected.  Data is now showing that previous infection from the original strain will not protect one from at least 1 of the new strains.

Data also shows that even 1 shot provides 60% of the protect of 2. So once more folks get their 2 shots...the world will be a different place.

[eas2225]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

A bit more on this topic.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covax-why-biden-s-billions-won-t-fix-covid-vaccine-n1258816

Hi, I just wanted to update you on the vaccine distribution in Montgomery County.  I pre-registered my husband on Jan. 13, 2021, and today I got an email offering an appointment for him to get it.  When you open the email, you will be given a token to click on to see the appt. schedule.  I notified the Montco website that he had already gotten the vaccine.

 

There were a lot of appointments available.

 

Good luck.

[TeeRick]

44 minutes ago, eas2225 said:

Hi, I just wanted to update you on the vaccine distribution in Montgomery County.  I pre-registered my husband on Jan. 13, 2021, and today I got an email offering an appointment for him to get it.  When you open the email, you will be given a token to click on to see the appt. schedule.  I notified the Montco website that he had already gotten the vaccine.

 

There were a lot of appointments available.

 

Good luck.

Thank you.  We pre-registered the next day Jan 14.  Hopefully soon for us too!

[nocl]

3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

A bit more on this topic.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covax-why-biden-s-billions-won-t-fix-covid-vaccine-n1258816

Yep.  If I was Biden I would donate the entire US supply of the AZ vaccine.  I would also use the Defense Production Act to fund additional manufacturing capacity inside the US with the intent of production to supply poorer countries (of course it will also reduce the incentive of US pharmaceutical companies to build their capacity over seas.).

[nocl]

3 hours ago, jagoffee said:

Since 75% of the vaccine shots administered in FL have been to those 65 years and older, it would make sense that the younger people will continue to have more positive test results.  Since the deaths are statistically among the elderly, the death rate/numbers should drop.  
We will see in April whether the projection you posted will be correct and what impact more cases with the young people will have.  

However long haul syndrome effects all ages.  Just doesn't get tracked like hospitalizations and deaths.

[hcat]

4 hours ago, jagoffee said:

Since 75% of the vaccine shots administered in FL have been to those 65 years and older, it would make sense that the younger people will continue to have more positive test results.  Since the deaths are statistically among the elderly, the death rate/numbers should drop.  
We will see in April whether the projection you posted will be correct and what impact more cases with the young people will have.  

We'll be following this as well. Hoping to be back to Fla by May.

Most folks we observed take precautions, but the "invincibles"  are worrisome!

[hcat]

Slightly off topic.

Hearing  about the  consistent failures of so many state  and county appoinment and distribution systems, I  just wonder WHY??? Have we no experts capable of these systems tasks,,,yet we can get concert and sports  tickets at  private websites. Seems U,S needs to upgrade education, training and hardware for gov operations,,, all around! Or am I missing something`?

 

Makes Celeb it team look good!

[Ken the cruiser]

With the addition of AstraZeneca's vaccine to go along with the current Pfizer and Moderna ones, it looks like there is going to be a huge uptick in vaccines coming to Canada by the end of March!

 

“This is very encouraging news. It means more people vaccinated, and sooner," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, adding that the nation of 38 million people will now get 6.5 million vaccines in total before the end of March, 500,000 more now with the new approval.

 

Canadian regulator authorizes AstraZeneca vaccine (yahoo.com)

 

According to the information provided at the following website if I'm reading it correctly, it appears Canada locations have only dispensed 1.75 million shots so far.

 

COVID-19 Tracker Canada

 

[markeb]

12 minutes ago, hcat said:

Slightly off topic.

Hearing  about the  consistent failures of so many state  and county appoinment and distribution systems, I  just wonder WHY??? Have we no experts capable of these systems tasks,,,yet we can get concert and sports  tickets at  private websites. Seems U,S needs to upgrade education, training and hardware for gov operations,,, all around! Or am I missing something`?

 

Makes Celeb it team look good!

We haven’t done this in a generation, honestly. Public health is notoriously underfunded in the US. We’re pretty much dependent on private entities, such as pharmacies, for a relatively steady state of demand. 
 

And have you ever tried to buy Hamilton tickets or Springsteen tickets?  I think I spent 12 hours in the waiting room for Hamilton at the Kennedy Center. No tickets...

[wrk2cruise]

J&J vote just taken for FDA approval of EAU.   All votes were to approve.  18 years of age and older.

[cangelmd]

8 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Virginia reported what looks like some aberrantly high death counts a week or so ago, but it's now looking like a lot of that was weather and holiday related delays in processing death certificates. Could be you're seeing some of that as well, especially from areas hit by the cold so hard last week.

Yep that's what I think - this was the new case statistic, not hospitalizations or deaths. I think that the numbers during the deep freeze were underreported and this one day spike was the catching up. Could be a combination of public health people not being able to report and people with minor cases of Covid looking at the icy streets and not going out to get tested.

The nationwide numbers that CNN was getting concerned about were week over week averages - as bad as the weather was last week, I think we need to see stalled or rising cases over a couple of weeks to be certain that the increases are real.

[D C]

On 2/25/2021 at 12:41 PM, nocl said:

However even with producing their own vaccines they have vaccinated very small percentages of their population (less than 3%). Another large country with production capability is India (1%). Both China and Russia started before the US approval of Pfizer.  At the rate they are vaccinating it will take quite a while for them to even get to a substantial percentage of their populations.

Not to be political, but I have low expectations that either country would have full vaccination as a goal.  Some classes, yes. Others, no. 

[Lady Chew]

13 hours ago, highway180 said:

i feel your pain. Here is Ma the central booking site, vaxfinder, has literally been a joke. the system crashes, kicks you while waiting. Yesterday while trying to schedule an appointment for a relative, the site went from 2 hour wait to 1 hour , then to 2256 hours!!

not a fun experience.

i ended up booking directly on the CVS website, much easier to navigate, no system crashing

 

 

They're still making excuses for the non-functioning web registration system here in Virginia.  Govt in Richmond says one thing, county says another, Congressional rep says a third.  What a joke.  Or it would be a joke if this whole situation wasn't so serious.

 

BUT - I've been checking CVS/etc several times a day, and today while I was on, appointments opened up!  So we're scheduled for Monday, with follow up scheduled in 4 weeks.  But two different pharmacies!  At least neither of them is very far away.

 

Color us relieved!

[K.T.B.]

17 hours ago, BOLOCRUISE said:

We don't get flu shots and we won't get the COVID vaccine.  We have traveled by airplane four times during the "pandemic", including internationally.  The protocols by airlines, all-inclusive resorts and condo rentals are fantastic.  None of these entities have ever been so clean and sanitized.  The fact that cruise ships are not sailing is quite ridiculous, with all of the cleaning, sanitizing, and distancing protocols available.  I have never felt so safe from contaminants on airplanes and in resorts/lodging as I do now. 

 

It's not ridiculous, it's about safety.  Also if (when?) cruise lines require passengers to be vaccinated, what will you do?

[TeeRick]

17 hours ago, nocl said:

Yep.  If I was Biden I would donate the entire US supply of the AZ vaccine.  I would also use the Defense Production Act to fund additional manufacturing capacity inside the US with the intent of production to supply poorer countries (of course it will also reduce the incentive of US pharmaceutical companies to build their capacity over seas.).

There are multiple millions of people in the US who would sign up to get any vaccine including the AZ vaccine (if/when approved) now and in the foreseeable future.  Until there is truly excess vaccine in the US, I really do not see President Biden donating any outside the US.  But funding programs like COVAX and others is a way to do it without becoming politically unpopular at home.

[TeeRick]

An article from an MD on virus transmission in the context of vaccines.  

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/post-vaccination-risk-is-a-false-dilemma/618149/