If not from the US. Where?

[Hlitner]

56 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

Pandemic has to do with widespread infectious disease (geographical).  You seem to be discussing the time/temporal element.

Why don't I like the word "pandemic?"  Because it has taken on political ramifications more then its medical definition.  If a widespread epidemic, which spreads to many countries, is a pandemic then the annual flu would always be a pandemic.  But that does not serve the widespread political agenda since the world prefers to look the other way when we have the flu (which can easily kill 500,000 in a single year).  There are about 100 countries that have malaria but few would call it a pandemic.  Why?  But yet malaria likely kills more then 1/2 million per year although political groups prefer to accept a lower number of around 400,000!  You can draw your own conclusions why a disease that kills that many year after year is not called a pandemic   Once upon a time we had the means to cheaply eradicate malaria but the means (DDT) became very unpopular with some political groups.  So  those same groups do not want to call malaria a "pandemic" because it does not fit their agenda.  By the way, some experts think that malaria will kill more people in 2020-21 then COVID!

 

Will COVID last?  Well, I guess one could read the words of Dr. Fauci

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/dr-anthony-fauci-warns-the-coronavirus-wont-ever-be-totally-eradicated.html

 

I have no clue as to whether this virus will last (smallpox lasted over 1000 years and was finally eradicated by a vaccine).  But thinking that it will suddenly end on November 1 (so cruise lines can restart) or anytime soon is probably a crazier prediction then saying it will last for many years.  We simply do not know what we do not know.  So my original question still remains unanswered by many.  If COVID does last a few years (or longer) will folks continue to shelter in place and will the world remain closed?   The question is reasonable, but the answer might be frightening.

 

As to the future of the cruise industry we are now in the camp of those that think the only savior for the cruise industry will be a safe/effective COVID vaccine.

 

Hank

 

 

 

 

 

[DaveSJ711]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

I am not a big fan of the word "pandemic."

 

On March 11, the W.H.O. first characterized the virus outbreak as a pandemic.  The Organization's Director-General said in remarks to the media:  "Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly.  It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death."  He added:  "There's been so much attention on one word.  Let me give you some other words that matter much more, and that are much more actionable:  Prevention.  Preparedness.  Public Health.  Political leadership.  And most of all, people."  

 

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020

[cruisemom42]

34 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Why don't I like the word "pandemic?"  Because it has taken on political ramifications more then its medical definition. 

 

 

That's not a good reason to dislike the word. When used correctly, it precisely conveys what is happening with COVID-19.  

 

Blame those who use it incorrectly, not the word -- which is a good and clearly understood term in epidemiology.

[DaveSJ711]

7 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

That's not a good reason to dislike the word. When used correctly, it precisely conveys what is happening with COVID-19.  

 

Blame those who use it incorrectly, not the word -- which is a good and clearly understood term in epidemiology.

 

Our friend has every right to dislike the word.  He didn't say the word is used incorrectly within the epidemiology community.  He said he doesn't like the word because, in the context of this particular outbreak, he believes it's taken on political as well as medical ramifications.  I don't happen to share his dislike or his underlying concern.  Still, I see and respect his position.  

[cruisemom42]

11 minutes ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

Our friend has every right to dislike the word.  He didn't say the word is used incorrectly within the epidemiology community.  He said he doesn't like the word because, in the context of this particular outbreak, he believes it's taken on political as well as medical ramifications.  I don't happen to share his dislike or his underlying concern.  Still, I see and respect his position.  

 

But the word can't misuse itself. It's people who twist and misuse language.

 

I do understand his meaning.  But as an editor, I think we should be precise in how we speak and use words. 

[DaveSJ711]

26 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

But the word can't misuse itself. It's people who twist and misuse language.

 

I do understand his meaning.  But as an editor, I think we should be precise in how we speak and use words. 

 

Now you're being pedantic.  But just as our friend has the right to dislike a word, so too do you have the right to be a pedant.  It's a big tent after all.     

Edited August 9, 2020 by DaveSJ711

[ilikeanswers]

I guess if you are not starting from the USA then cruise lines could finally have those cruises to nowhere🤔. Who knows how the market will change.

[JRG]

10 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

But as an editor, I think we should be precise in how we speak and use words. 

 

But, in fairness to the poster,  you are not the editor of CC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cruisemom42]

51 minutes ago, JRG said:

 

But, in fairness to the poster,  you are not the editor of CC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't follow you. I'm just expressing an opinion, same as the OP.  I didn't say the post should be deleted. 

 

If every post where someone disagreed with another on CC was deleted, we'd have very little conversation on this site. 

[evandbob]

13 hours ago, Donald said:

Back to the original question. “Where”??

The big mass market ships that carry thousands of mostly Americans who are looking for the cheapest possible vacation experience are really in trouble. No matter what they try to do, it will not be easy.

However the smaller ships, carrying travelers - rather than tourists - will be able to re-start soon. 
Where?

Tahiti and South Pacific

South Asia

Central America

South America

Mediterranean

Baltic

 

The passenger demographic will be changing; fewer Americans, and more Europeans and Asians. Some of the lines are already upgrading their onboard product to better appeal to the new mix of passengers.

 

 

I would love to return to the Tahitian Islands and revisit the overwater bungalows we stayed in several times in the past.  It would be a great place to ride out the pandemic!  Ahhh, I fantasize......

 

South America cruising has some downside.  Events in SA (and CA as well) haven't gotten much attention, but there are several COVID hot spots.  We have a 14 day Buenos Aries to Santiago Chile booked for March 2021 that will probably get cancelled by the Coronavirus in the ports.

[cruisemom42]

23 minutes ago, evandbob said:

We have a 14 day Buenos Aries to Santiago Chile booked for March 2021 that will probably get cancelled by the Coronavirus in the ports.

 

A long time ago I had booked a trip that was Santiago to Buenos Aires with Antarctic cruising for January 2021. A couple of months ago I moved that to January 2022. I agree the situation in some parts of SA aren't great and I can't see a cruise like this going forward in January 2021 -- too long, too much risk.

[ldubs]

On 8/8/2020 at 5:48 PM, Hlitner said:

  The so-called Spanish flu existed in a world where it took weeks to get from point A to point B and there was no such thing as an airplane. 

 

 

 

Weeks to get from point A to point B?  No such thing as an airplane?  

 

When do you think the Spanish flu happened?  

[ilikeanswers]

2 hours ago, ldubs said:

Weeks to get from point A to point B?  No such thing as an airplane?  

 

When do you think the Spanish flu happened?  

 

There were no commercial flights. Very few people had the privilege to fly, flying was basically in its infancy and it was not like you could fly direct. Going from one side of the world to the other could take a week and you had to stop multiple times to refuel and people would overnight at these stops. A cruise liner from Europe to Australia took about 40 days so that would count as weeks of travel. It would depend on the journey but there were routes that took a few weeks to complete. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by ilikeanswers

[Hlitner]

7 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

Weeks to get from point A to point B?  No such thing as an airplane?  

 

When do you think the Spanish flu happened?  

1918!  First commercial airship (not a plane) was about 1928.  Commercial transatlantic airplanes did not even start until 1939.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Hlitner

[navybankerteacher]

On 8/8/2020 at 11:07 PM, DaveSJ711 said:

 

Now you're being pedantic.  But just as our friend has the right to dislike a word, so too do you have the right to be a pedant.  It's a big tent after all.     

The only reason “a big tent” has value is if people can share ideas - which necessitates communicating - which necessitates having words with which to communicate.  If you are dealing with a world-wide epidemic which grows at an increasing rate (at least now in the US) you have a PANDEMIC.

 

Of course, some people are afraid of thinking about, or discussing, bad problems - so I imagine they take comfort in making it difficult to think about or discuss - by rejecting the words necessary to think or discuss.

 

A “big tent” does not have to be a lunatic asylum - where people take comfort in ignoring what they do not like to think about.

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

1918!  First commercial airship (not a plane) was about 1928.  Commercial transatlantic airplanes did not even start until 1939.

Not quite right - scheduled flights from London to Paris (international) started in 1919.

KLM started operations in 1919 and Qantas in 1921 - a number of others about then - but those two are still in existence.

[evandbob]

We like to think of America as the leader of the free world, the best in technology, health care, education, manufacturing, and lifestyle.

 

The virus numbers refute our assumptions.  We lead the world in the number of cases and deaths, even as the posted numbers seem to miss unreported cases.  How can "the best country" in so many categories be doing such a poor job with this virus?

 

Even many third world countries that we Americans sometimes look down on are doing a better job of containment and recovery.

[DaveSJ711]

46 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

The only reason “a big tent” has value is if people can share ideas - which necessitates communicating - which necessitates having words with which to communicate.  If you are dealing with a world-wide epidemic which grows at an increasing rate (at least now in the US) you have a PANDEMIC.

 

Of course, some people are afraid of thinking about, or discussing, bad problems - so I imagine they take comfort in making it difficult to think about or discuss - by rejecting the words necessary to think or discuss.

 

A “big tent” does not have to be a lunatic asylum - where people take comfort in ignoring what they do not like to think about.

 

No reason to use all caps -- I know what a pandemic is.  You don't have to yell.

 

I'm surprised you called our well-traveled Pennsylvania friend a "lunatic" simply for expressing his dislike for a word that, in his opinion, has taken on political overtones.  That's perilously close to ad hominem.  You really should avoid that.

[ilikeanswers]

31 minutes ago, evandbob said:

Even many third world countries that we Americans sometimes look down on are doing a better job of containment and recovery.

 

To be fair it is not just USA. Europe was certainly not as well prepared as they thought. The EU was so sure Greece and Portugal would be hardest hit and completely fall apart instead it was the big five that took the hit while those two countries managed to get themselves organised. France probably looks at its former colonies of Tunisa and Vietnam thinking how the heck are they doing a better job than highly advanced France😄. Any developed nation doing worst than Ethiopia should be humbled. That country is controlling the spread with a fraction of the resources. This pandemic is still not finished so who knows how things will turn out but I think most developed nations in the world would be pretty silly if they didn't take a good long hard look at themselves when this is over.

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

No reason to use all caps -- I know what a pandemic is.  You don't have to yell.

 

I'm surprised you called our well-traveled Pennsylvania friend a "lunatic" simply for expressing his dislike for a word that, in his opinion, has taken on political overtones.  That's perilously close to ad hominem.  You really should avoid that.

Capitalizing one word is not “all caps”.

 

In what conceivable way has “pandemic” obtained political overtones?  The word is what it is - that fact that some people, for their own political agendas might be denying the existence of a pandemic does not change the word.

 

In no way did I suggest any individual was a lunatic - I simply nentioned that a “big tent” (presumably an environment welcoming different points of view) did not necessarily have to include absurdity.  Avoiding the use of the word which best describes the matter under discussion simply because some people may have politicized the discussion is appropriately seen as an absurdity.

 

If you are genuinely opposed to ad hominem argument, you might consider avoiding making one part of your post.

 

 

[DaveSJ711]

3 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Capitalizing one word is not “all caps”.

 

In what conceivable way has “pandemic” obtained political overtones?  The word is what it is - that fact that some people, for their own political agendas might be denying the existence of a pandemic does not change the word.

 

In no way did I suggest any individual was a lunatic - I simply nentioned that a “big tent” (presumably an environment welcoming different points of view) did not necessarily have to include absurdity.  Avoiding the use of the word which best describes the matter under discussion simply because some people may have politicized the discussion is appropriately seen as an absurdity.

 

If you are genuinely opposed to ad hominem argument, you might consider avoiding making one part of your post.

 

 

 

In reference to our friend's position, you said the big CC tent doesn't have to be a lunatic asylum.  Your words, not mine. 

 

I have no problem with you disagreeing with our friend on whether the word "pandemic" has acquired political overtones.  As I said in an earlier post, I don't share his underlying concern, nor do I share his sensitivity about the word itself.  But I can see his position and I respect it.  Unlike you, I don't insult that position by ascribing it to inmates of a lunatic asylum.

[SelectSys]

On 8/8/2020 at 6:23 PM, Donald said:

Back to the original question. “Where”??

The big mass market ships that carry thousands of mostly Americans who are looking for the cheapest possible vacation experience are really in trouble...

 

Don't think of people from the US as only those looking for cheap deals and that everyone in Europe are luxury travelers.  MSC and Costa provide super cheap deals to the European market.  Same with the now defunct Pullmantur cruises - proving your point about low price providers.  Remember, the largest airline in Europe by passengers carried is Ryanair and easyJet and Wizzair are in the top 10.  

 

Note that MSC is the best positioned to thrive and grow given their private ownership and huge cargo business to subsidize cruising for a while.

[navybankerteacher]

29 minutes ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

In reference to our friend's position, you said the big CC tent doesn't have to be a lunatic asylum.  Your words, not mine. 

 

I have no problem with you disagreeing with our friend on whether the word "pandemic" has acquired political overtones.  As I said in an earlier post, I don't share his underlying concern, nor do I share his sensitivity about the word itself.  But I can see his position and I respect it.  Unlike you, I don't insult that position by ascribing it to inmates of a lunatic asylum.

OK - we stop using “pandemic” because some people for their own purposes want to pretend it is what it isn’t - or would you say it isn’t what it is?

 

How would you discuss what is killing tens, and now hundreds, of thousands of our fellow citizens because it is spreading at a growing rate?  Shall we call it “that bad thing”?

 

Normal, sane people tend to use commonly understood terms to discuss real problems.

Edited August 13, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[DaveSJ711]

33 minutes ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

In reference to our friend's position, you said the big CC tent doesn't have to be a lunatic asylum.  Your words, not mine. 

 

I have no problem with you disagreeing with our friend on whether the word "pandemic" has acquired political overtones.  As I said in an earlier post, I don't share his underlying concern, nor do I share his sensitivity about the word itself.  But I can see his position and I respect it.  Unlike you, I don't insult that position by ascribing it to inmates of a lunatic asylum.

 

4 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

How would you discuss what is killing tens, and now hundreds, of thousands of our fellow citizens because it is spreading at a growing rate?  Shall we call it “that bad thing”?

 

Read my second paragraph.

 

[ldubs]

12 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

There were no commercial flights. Very few people had the privilege to fly, flying was basically in its infancy and it was not like you could fly direct. Going from one side of the world to the other could take a week and you had to stop multiple times to refuel and people would overnight at these stops. A cruise liner from Europe to Australia took about 40 days so that would count as weeks of travel. It would depend on the journey but there were routes that took a few weeks to complete. 

 

I'm not sure point A Europe to point B Australia was a primary route for the spread of the spanish flu.  But, yes that would take weeks.