Which Ships with new orders?

[orville99]

18 hours ago, ssb said:

If cruise lines can initially just cover their variable  costs of the specific sailing and make enough to pay on some on the fixed company overhead costs , they are ahead by sailing. 

True, except that the fixed costs extend across the entire fleet, so even if a particular sailing covers its variable costs and its own slice of the corporation's fixed costs (covers its "opportunity costs"), if only 20% of the fleet sails, 80% of the corporation's fixed costs remain uncovered.

[ssb]

YES I agree,  a rational concept !

By sailing on a temporary short term basis though, they are  better off , if any fixed costs are covered and lower.   But eventually they have to return to the profitable relevant range of a long term going concern basis.    

[Milwaukee Eight]

3 hours ago, yogimax said:

But would they have access to the SL?

Absolutely not. 

[Domino D]

4 hours ago, yogimax said:

But would they have access to the SL?

 

30 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Absolutely not. 

Unless they are also having to work as Lounge Concierge as part of their fare.  Joking of course.

 

On a serious note.  A number of hotels are testing "no clean" rates, where you don't get housekeeping and pay less.  I wonder if this will make it to the cruise lines?  I know it seems like now more than ever they would want to clean the rooms (cabins) more, but the logic at the hotels is, people won't want an employee touching things in the room everyday.  

[SeaHunt]

On 11/3/2020 at 9:01 AM, alfaeric said:

it made me wonder what ships will be the first to go out and sail.

 

I don't know if "Industry Sources" are correct, but this article says "they" expect Mariner and Navigator 😉

 

"Freed said that the first cruises to be offered in 2021 may be short sailings to CocoCay, which would allow the company to operate in a bubble on its own private island.

 

Industry sources expect the Mariner and Navigator of the Seas, the company's recently-refurbished "short Caribbean" ships, to be the vessels pressed into service.

 

“It is going to require a lot of work to restart operations," Freed said. "It is complicated to go through this entire CDC recommendation and we are going to do it.”

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23817-royal-caribbean-may-need-volunteers-for-trial-cruises.html

[Sunshine3601]

3 hours ago, Domino D said:

 

Unless they are also having to work as Lounge Concierge as part of their fare.  Joking of course.

 

On a serious note.  A number of hotels are testing "no clean" rates, where you don't get housekeeping and pay less.  I wonder if this will make it to the cruise lines?  I know it seems like now more than ever they would want to clean the rooms (cabins) more, but the logic at the hotels is, people won't want an employee touching things in the room everyday.  

We recently traveled and when we arrived at the resort (our booking was for 6 days) we were told they were doing limited housekeeping for safety of their workers and guests.  They said housekeeping would come in on day 3 , if we wanted or we could simply place our used towels in bags provided in a drawer of the kitchenette and put them outside our door and they would leave us every day a bag with clean towels, coffee, etc.       

As we were at a beach resort and our entrance door was outside.   It worked out very nice.     

When we checked out they gave us a $10 credit for everyday we didn't have housekeeping.      They hadn't told us that at check in.    so that was nice to get money back.     

Sure, I would do the same on a cruise.    I don't need someone to make my bed or turn down my sheets.   

Although I would truly miss their towel creatures!    

 

[alfaeric]

13 hours ago, SeaHunt said:

 

I don't know if "Industry Sources" are correct, but this article says "they" expect Mariner and Navigator 😉

 

"Freed said that the first cruises to be offered in 2021 may be short sailings to CocoCay, which would allow the company to operate in a bubble on its own private island.

 

Industry sources expect the Mariner and Navigator of the Seas, the company's recently-refurbished "short Caribbean" ships, to be the vessels pressed into service.

 

“It is going to require a lot of work to restart operations," Freed said. "It is complicated to go through this entire CDC recommendation and we are going to do it.”

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23817-royal-caribbean-may-need-volunteers-for-trial-cruises.html

Nice find!  

 

I'll be honest and all of my info is pure speculation.  

 

Given the two ships are the short 3 night ships, it does make a lot of sense that they would be prepared to run a similar thing to learn how to do this.   I wonder with their short itineraries, they have really low fuel costs already....  The Bahamas are not far from Florida.

 

And I'm sure there's a lot more to decide which ships vs. what I'm thinking.

[Ourusualbeach]

My own personal opinion is that they will start out with the 3/4 day cruises as it gets them a lot if practice with procedures and allows then to refine toes procedures. I also feel that it won’t take them long to get the 7 day cruises back up and going on the OA class ships with the only thing holding them back on those is how quickly they can get the crew back and through the quarantine and testing that’s now required.  
 

Since the CDC has allowed 7 day cruises I don’t think Royal is going to stick with the 3/4 day sailings fir very long. 

[Crazy planning mom]

On 11/3/2020 at 2:59 PM, Hoopster95 said:

 

So much intelligence and common sense in this thread... well done gents! 😝

 

Alfaeric, agree with your posts.... issues getting started, spacing, timing, all of it.

Vision and Radiance will be extremely difficult to run until C19 gone (0% chance of this) or mitigated (vaccine? tough call), or the CDC requirements are reduced.

 

Twangster, totally agree with your thoughts on current ship positions.... $250,000,000 bleeding per month lends to the belief RCG will leave ships in their current regions for some time. Anyone even slightly thinking their current booked ship and exact itinerary will be cruising in the next few months is totally in denial to the truths of the situation and conditions at hand.

 

The example I've used in other threads is Serenade... I've seen several posts regarding Alaska sailings and Hawaii/Sydney TP's and I just shake my head. No way in hell RCG sails Serenade through the Panama Canal (no passengers on sailing over 7 days), at a price tag of $400,000 + fuel + staff + etc , just to  provide half occupancy (so about 1200 people) sailings to Alaska.... let alone the 2 week TP's. Also it's been said that Radiance only breaks even at about 50% occupancy, so why even bother sailing her?

 

Ships and itineraries are going to change a lot in the coming months with redployments, ports opening up/closing up, islands allowing cruise ships/not allowing, CDC  changing requirements/not changing, new USA administration/same one, good economy/bad economy, etc etc. Nothing, absolutely nothing, can be relied upon at this time for anyone who has a current booking.

Ok, so would you say that assuming Canada reopens, only Quantum and Ovation sail in Alaska this summer?  I have a booking on the Radiance but also have a backup land trip planned.  So, would you say I should expect to do the land trip and not the cruise?

[Domino D]

34 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Ok, so would you say that assuming Canada reopens, only Quantum and Ovation sail in Alaska this summer?  I have a booking on the Radiance but also have a backup land trip planned.  So, would you say I should expect to do the land trip and not the cruise?

It is 100% certain, that no one on these forums can tell you with 100% certainty what the cruise lines will do.  Most of the speculation is based on profit margins (which makes sense), the problem is that depending  customer demand, the cost of cruising will likely be effected.  The comment about the Radiance sailing at 50% capacity, was at normal fares.  If the fares increase, the math changes.  Likewise, there are some expenses that will drop with less people.

 

When we look at vacations now, we use likelihood.  Your land trip is 90% likely to go through uninterrupted or at the least minimally changed.  The cruise right now is at best 60% likely to go, just too many questions you can't know. 

 

If you want to be true to your account name, the land vacation is the clear solution.  If you can handle the uncertainty, then hold out.  I'm the planner in my family and can't book a cruise for anything before summer right now. It is to uncertain and that drives me nuts.  Do I book excursions?  Do I book a hotel for presail?  Do I book flights?  Can't do anything when: It might not go at all.  It might be different ports.  It might be a different ship. What will be operating when I get on?  What will excursions be like when I get there?

 

Less variables in a land vacation.  Still just one strangers opinion.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Domino D

[FionaMG]

57 minutes ago, Domino D said:

I'm the planner in my family and can't book a cruise for anything before summer right now. It is to uncertain and that drives me nuts.  Do I book excursions?  Do I book a hotel for presail?  Do I book flights?  Can't do anything when: It might not go at all.  It might be different ports.  It might be a different ship. What will be operating when I get on?  What will excursions be like when I get there?

I can so relate to this @Domino D. I love researching trips and travel and my fingers are itching to be able to click a "Book Now" button and know that the trip is more likely to happen than to end up falling foul of the C-word.  

[HBE4]

 

I wonder if number of passengers willing to sail will enter into the equation of which ship to restart with?  All figures below assume 50% capacity at double occupancy.

 

Let's say only 1,500 people want to sail each week?  In that case, Navigator or Mariner will be a much better fit than Oasis which could fit 2,700.  

 

Or maybe Royal wants to limit the first couple of months to 1,500 or 2,000 passenger per sailing. Again, Voyager or Freedom class would be a better fit than Oasis.

 

As for Anthem, I don't see any of the "cold weather" ships doing short sailings from Florida anytime soon.

[Biker19]

Mariner has been docked in Miami for at least 2 days now - seems like more than a simple resupply run.

[smokeybandit]

On 11/19/2020 at 4:21 AM, Biker19 said:

Mariner has been docked in Miami for at least 2 days now - seems like more than a simple resupply run.

With the various crew trainings and enhanced sanitation/medical stuff they need to install before getting approval for the test cruises, this makes sense.

[Spif Barwunkel]

If you are keeping track, Adventure has just docked at the Port of Miami.

[Biker19]

16 hours ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

If you are keeping track, Adventure has just docked at the Port of Miami.

That didn't seem to be anything more than a simple resupply run, unlike Mariner and Navigator which both spent 2+ days docked. It will be interesting to see how much time Liberty spends there when she arrives in a couple of days.