The Length of time between cruises in the US in the Covid era?

[nocl]

19 hours ago, Hlitner said:

It is interesting to see what other cruise lines are doing about longer cruises.  For example, MSC is routinely booking 14 day back to backs for the Fall of 2021.    As some other posts have mentioned, the CDC Guidelines are subject to change or cancellation at any time.  Those Guidelines were developed prior to the approval of any vaccines and vaccines are a true game changer.  At this time nobody knows how the CDC will deal with the changes related to vaccines but my own strong suspicion is that a mandatory vaccination policy will likely replace many of the current Guidelines.  This could certainly happen by the third quarter of 2021 (perhaps sooner).

 

As to the current 7 day limit, it makes very little sense.  I could make a good argument that shorter cruises (i.e. 7 days) are much more risky then longer cruises.  Why?  Two 7 day cruises mean twice as many souls moving to and from cruise ports as a single 14 day cruise.  The more cruisers that are traveling to and fro the more risk of COVID and spread.  

 

Hank 

I expect that the CDC will maintain the current rules until either expiration or until the incidence data convinces them to do something different.  I doubt you will see the CDC put a vaccine requirement on the cruise lines. If they were to do so (unlikely) it would not be until most of the population is vaccinated (probably after the November expiration date.

 

If there is a vaccine requirement you will most likely see it from the cruise lines themselves and they might propose it as an alternative to the CDC. It might also be driven by some countries requiring it before allowing passengers to enter their country.

 

The CDC has information on propagation on cruise ships.  From what I recall all of those that had outbreaks were on cruises longer than 7 days or were the results of infected crew members infected during a previous cruise or involved passengers doing B2B cruises. I would expect that the 7 day limit is driven by that data.

 

Also the crew must retest every 7 days.  The passengers must test when getting on board and must test before getting off.  So no one (crew or passengers) are going to go for a period longer than 7 days without being tested.

Edited December 28, 2020 by nocl

[Hlitner]

6 minutes ago, nocl said:

I expect that the CDC will maintain the current rules until either expiration or until the incidence data convinces them to do something different.  I doubt you will see the CDC put a vaccine requirement on the cruise lines. If they were to do so (unlikely) it would not be until most of the population is vaccinated (probably after the November expiration date.

 

If there is a vaccine requirement you will most likely see it from the cruise lines themselves and they might propose it as an alternative to the CDC. It might also be driven by some countries requiring it before allowing passengers to enter their country.

 

The CDC has information on propagation on cruise ships.  From what I recall all of those that had outbreaks were on cruises longer than 7 days or were the results of infected crew members infected during a previous cruise or involved passengers doing B2B cruises. I would expect that the 7 day limit is driven by that data.

 

Also the crew must retest every 7 days.  The passengers must test when getting on board and must test before getting off.  So no one (crew or passengers) are going to go for a period longer than 7 days without being tested.

I disagree with your analysis.  The CDC may not change their guidelines but if you carefully read the document it gives the CDC the final word on which ships get the necessary certification to cruise.  And that certification could be withdrawn at any time so if the ship has even a single case of COVID they would likely find themselves sitting in port for the next few weeks.   There is also the issue of cruise ports which will very likely insist on everyone being vaccinated.  The alternative on some Caribbean islands would be to have tests (within a few days of arrival) and perhaps need to quarantine for 10 days to 2 weeks which does not work well for a cruise ship.

 

There is also the issue of getting Canada to lift their cruise line restrictions (or there will be no Alaskan cruise season) not to mention Europe and Asia.  The cruise lines are not in a position where they can gamble so they will adopt mandatory vaccination policies for multiple proactive reasons.   As to the CDC (which only impacts ships embarking, debarking or visiting US Ports) a 100% mandatory vaccination policy will likely go a long way to a ship getting the necessary clearance.  Keep in mind that the current CDC Guidelines are just that...guidelines.  The cruise ship must still demonstrate (to the CDC's satisfaction) that they have appropriately dealt with the COVID risk and have all the required backup plans, transfer agreements, hospital agreements, etc.  Mandatory vaccination just makes everything else fall into place.

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

15 minutes ago, nocl said:

I expect that the CDC will maintain the current rules until either expiration or until the incidence data convinces them to do something different.  I doubt you will see the CDC put a vaccine requirement on the cruise lines. If they were to do so (unlikely) it would not be until most of the population is vaccinated (probably after the November expiration date.

 

If there is a vaccine requirement you will most likely see it from the cruise lines themselves and they might propose it as an alternative to the CDC. It might also be driven by some countries requiring it before allowing passengers to enter their country.

 

The CDC has information on propagation on cruise ships.  From what I recall all of those that had outbreaks were on cruises longer than 7 days or were the results of infected crew members infected during a previous cruise or involved passengers doing B2B cruises. I would expect that the 7 day limit is driven by that data.

 

Also the crew must retest every 7 days.  The passengers must test when getting on board and must test before getting off.  So no one (crew or passengers) are going to go for a period longer than 7 days without being tested.

Actually that 7 day propagation standard quickly fell with the resumption of 7 day cruises in Europe.  Costa, Aida, MSC, Hurtigruten and others all have COVID cases aboard.  As you would likely surmise, some of these folks likely brought the virus onboard with them at embarkation since none of the tests are effective at detecting recent exposure.   Any passenger exposed to COVID during their travels to the embarkation port will likely test negative until a few days after they board the ship.  IMHO the alternative to a no vaccination policy is NO CRUISE.

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

Just now, Hlitner said:

Actually that 7 day propagation standard quickly fell with the resumption of 7 day cruises in Europe.  Costa, Aida, MSC, Hurtigruten and others all have COVID cases aboard.  As you would likely surmise, some of these folks likely brought the virus onboard with them at embarkation since none of the tests are effective at detecting recent exposure.   Any passenger exposed to COVID during their travels to the embarkation port will likely test negative until a few days after they board the ship.  IMHO the alternative to a no vaccination policy is NO CRUISE.  It is interesting that at least two cruise line CEOS (Richard Fein and Frank del Rio) have said they will require all their crew to be vaccinated.  While that is good it does nothing to avoid issues with the passengers.  Those same CEOs said they were considering passenger vaccination policies.  I would be willing to bet a few drinks (if we both have a drink package) that the eventual policy will be mandatory vaccination for everyone.  Eventually, if COVID becomes less of a problem that policy could be eased.

 

Hank

 

[nocl]

42 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I disagree with your analysis.  The CDC may not change their guidelines but if you carefully read the document it gives the CDC the final word on which ships get the necessary certification to cruise.  And that certification could be withdrawn at any time so if the ship has even a single case of COVID they would likely find themselves sitting in port for the next few weeks.   There is also the issue of cruise ports which will very likely insist on everyone being vaccinated.  The alternative on some Caribbean islands would be to have tests (within a few days of arrival) and perhaps need to quarantine for 10 days to 2 weeks which does not work well for a cruise ship.

 

There is also the issue of getting Canada to lift their cruise line restrictions (or there will be no Alaskan cruise season) not to mention Europe and Asia.  The cruise lines are not in a position where they can gamble so they will adopt mandatory vaccination policies for multiple proactive reasons.   As to the CDC (which only impacts ships embarking, debarking or visiting US Ports) a 100% mandatory vaccination policy will likely go a long way to a ship getting the necessary clearance.  Keep in mind that the current CDC Guidelines are just that...guidelines.  The cruise ship must still demonstrate (to the CDC's satisfaction) that they have appropriately dealt with the COVID risk and have all the required backup plans, transfer agreements, hospital agreements, etc.  Mandatory vaccination just makes everything else fall into place.

 

Hank

You notice that I said unlikely that the CDC mandates vaccination for cruise lines.  That does not mean that vaccinations will not be required for cruising.  As I mentioned either because other countries require it (your Canada example) or because as I said in my post that the cruise lines decide to implement it themselves.

 

What makes you think that the CDC will mandate vaccination for cruise ships?  

 

While the CDC has managed the US vaccination program (largely by issuing grants) the requirements for mandatory vaccines have been generated by the states not by the CDC.  There is a list of vaccinations required for someone to immigrate to the US, but not for someone to visit. 

 

So for the CDC to mandate that cruise lines require vaccinations is counter to normal agency process and history.  Much more likely for the cruise lines to implement themselves.  If the CDC were to mandate I suspect that you would already see the states passing laws to mandate the vaccine first.

[nocl]

53 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Actually that 7 day propagation standard quickly fell with the resumption of 7 day cruises in Europe.  Costa, Aida, MSC, Hurtigruten and others all have COVID cases aboard.  As you would likely surmise, some of these folks likely brought the virus onboard with them at embarkation since none of the tests are effective at detecting recent exposure.   Any passenger exposed to COVID during their travels to the embarkation port will likely test negative until a few days after they board the ship.  IMHO the alternative to a no vaccination policy is NO CRUISE.

 

Hank

In the case of Hurtigruten the original infection occurred on the previous cruise, which resulted in crew members being infected.

 

While in the other cases you mentioned there have been some Covid cases on board, the numbers have been very small and contained.  

 

The 7 days cruises have not resulted in major outbreak events such as the Diamond, the Grand, the Ruby, the Coral, and several more.  All of those with major spread occurring on board involved cruises longer than 7 days or infection on a previous cruise (Hurtigruten)  or both.

 

So where have there been any major outbreaks on a 7 day cruise where the infection originated on that cruise?

 

Again the crew now must get tested every 7 days.  The passengers must get tested while boarding and prior to disembarkation.

 

The purposes of the testing is not to absolutely guarantee that Covid does not make it on board (while any identification of cases prior to boarding is a plus), but is aimed at identifying if there is a problem and to contain it.

 

That containment is done by canceling follow on cruises, restricting passenger departures if a case occurs on board, etc.

 

The testing is a trip wir.e

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

In the case of Hurtigruten the original infection occurred on the previous cruise, which resulted in crew members being infected.

 

While in the other cases you mentioned there have been some Covid cases on board, the numbers have been very small and contained.  

 

The 7 days cruises have not resulted in major outbreak events such as the Diamond, the Grand, the Ruby, the Coral, and several more.  All of those with major spread occurring on board involved cruises longer than 7 days or infection on a previous cruise (Hurtigruten)  or both.

 

So where have there been any major outbreaks on a 7 day cruise where the infection originated on that cruise?

 

Again the crew now must get tested every 7 days.  The passengers must get tested while boarding and prior to disembarkation.

 

The purposes of the testing is not to absolutely guarantee that Covid does not make it on board (while any identification of cases prior to boarding is a plus), but is aimed at identifying if there is a problem and to contain it.

 

That containment is done by canceling follow on cruises, restricting passenger departures if a case occurs on board, etc.

 

The testing is a trip wir.e

First off, we do not know if the COVID cases were contained since folks scattered home and apparently the government (primarily in Italy and Germany) did not seem eager to announce any tracing since they were the same officials that allowed the cruising in the first place.  As to Hurtigruten, they quickly shut down their entire operation once they had those cases.  MSC also had a case which stopped passengers from going ashore in Malta.  As to Costa they actually tossed one passenger off their ship who later died of COVID.   In Germany the situation was worse on some river cruises.  But none of that really matters as even a single case was one too many.  

 

But what you suggest about restricting departures and cancelling follow on cruises (after most would already be on their way to a port) are a big problem.  Who pays to get those folks home?  Who pays for cancelled cruises?  Would you book a cruise and your air with all that hanging in the air?   How many would book a cruise if they were running the risk of being delayed for days or even weeks because somebody else got COVID?  Would a ship need to be quarantined for an additional 2 weeks to make sure there were no cases on the crew?  Etc etc etc.

 

As to the CDC mandating vaccinations keep in mind that the CDC does not normally get involved in State matters (although they effective banned all the States from allowing evictions because of COVID).   You also need to consider that the incoming administration believes in a strong central government and would likely give the CDC even more power...not less.  The CDC does have power over the cruise industry (until the courts rule otherwise).  It is the CDC that effectively shut down the cruise industry in the USA.  Also consider that unless the CDC green lights cruises there is not an insurance company on earth that will insure the cruise line or the passengers.

 

But the enemy of the cruise lines is "uncertainty.  Cruises need to become a reliable vacation without unexpected delays, cancellations, etc.  Otherwise most folks will not take the chance on a cruise vacation.  The first time there is a problem or delay it will add to the woes of the industry as they get killed by negative publicity ("remember the Diamond Princess?").

 

Now compare all this to somebody simply jumping on a flight and flying to Mexico for a week vacation.  There is no need for testing, lots of options for dining, beaches, etc.  without having to take a mandatory excursion.  Islands in the Caribbean are gradually reopening for business with relatively few restrictions.  Travel is a competitive industry and folks will look for some degree of certainty and freedom.   

 

Hank

[gmjc2]

We are all for mandatory vaccinations before cruising. It is the only way we will get back to cruising this year. Those that choose not to vaccinate are welcome to stay home. Just as we feel the non- mask wearers need to stay home. Do what is right for the whole population and not be selfish ,that's our motto.

As for the folks who claim medical reasons for not vaccinating, those that have genuine conditions will most likely find that they will be able to vaccinate soon as more is known about reactions. ( According to my Doc)

[gmjc2]

Happy New Year!

[Iamcruzin]

On 12/28/2020 at 10:01 PM, Hlitner said:

 

 

Now compare all this to somebody simply jumping on a flight and flying to Mexico for a week vacation.  There is no need for testing, lots of options for dining, beaches, etc.  without having to take a mandatory excursion.  Islands in the Caribbean are gradually reopening for business with relatively few restrictions.  Travel is a competitive industry and folks will look for some degree of certainty and freedom.   

 

Hank

This^  There is no way I'm booking a cruise with all of the uncertainty.  Itinerary changes and cancellations due to charters or weather happen on  a good day. I can't imagine flying to port and not being able to board a ship or having the cruise end midway because of Covid.  We will be taking land trips and booking AirBnB until cruising becomes a more reliable source of travel.  

[Hlitner]

2 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

This^  There is no way I'm booking a cruise with all of the uncertainty.  Itinerary changes and cancellations due to charters or weather happen on  a good day. I can't imagine flying to port and not being able to board a ship or having the cruise end midway because of Covid.  We will be taking land trips and booking AirBnB until cruising becomes a more reliable source of travel.  

Another reason (of many) while the only solution for the cruise industry is to adopt a 100% mandatory vaccination policy.  Anything less leaves the continued uncertainty that will drive away many customers.  Those that doubt what I say should take a look at what happened to recent Cruise to Nowhere done by the Quantum of the Seas our of Singapore in early December.  

 

Hank

[Iamcruzin]

34 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Another reason (of many) while the only solution for the cruise industry is to adopt a 100% mandatory vaccination policy.  Anything less leaves the continued uncertainty that will drive away many customers.  Those that doubt what I say should take a look at what happened to recent Cruise to Nowhere done by the Quantum of the Seas our of Singapore in early December.  

 

Hank

Yes and a false positive test ended that 4 day cruise on day 3. 

[Hlitner]

9 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Yes and a false positive test ended that 4 day cruise on day 3. 

Yep but consider that there are always false positive and false negatives (a big problem when you rely on testing).  A false positive is essentially the same as a real positive since the protocols are the same.  There is more to that Quantum case.  RCI had implemented a pretty sophisticated tracking system (with wrist bands) so they were able to run computer programs to determine which passengers had been in close proximity to the one positive (false) gentleman.  Those that had been near that man were required to quarantine (I think for 14 days).  The other passengers were permitted to return home but had to take a test before debarking and take another test at a later date.  Since all these folks are from Singapore, and that country has a very strong government, it was possible to impose these rules on the passengers without protest (protest is generally not permitted in Singapore).    Now consider how that could possibly work here in the USA.  As one can imagine it would not work at all!   It is likely that under a similar scenario the CDC would mandate that everyone quarantine for at least 10 days and nobody would be allowed to use any public transit (such as airlines) during that quarantine period.  So all the thousands on a cruise would be stuck in Florida (or at any port) for at least 10 days after having their cruise cut short.  Who is going to pay for that.  And how many can gamble on booking cruises knowing that they may be delayed getting home for up to 2 weeks?

 

Hank

[Iamcruzin]

2 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Yep but consider that there are always false positive and false negatives (a big problem when you rely on testing).  A false positive is essentially the same as a real positive since the protocols are the same.  There is more to that Quantum case.  RCI had implemented a pretty sophisticated tracking system (with wrist bands) so they were able to run computer programs to determine which passengers had been in close proximity to the one positive (false) gentleman.  Those that had been near that man were required to quarantine (I think for 14 days).  The other passengers were permitted to return home but had to take a test before debarking and take another test at a later date.  Since all these folks are from Singapore, and that country has a very strong government, it was possible to impose these rules on the passengers without protest (protest is generally not permitted in Singapore).    Now consider how that could possibly work here in the USA.  As one can imagine it would not work at all!   It is likely that under a similar scenario the CDC would mandate that everyone quarantine for at least 10 days and nobody would be allowed to use any public transit (such as airlines) during that quarantine period.  So all the thousands on a cruise would be stuck in Florida (or at any port) for at least 10 days after having their cruise cut short.  Who is going to pay for that.  And how many can gamble on booking cruises knowing that they may be delayed getting home for up to 2 weeks?

 

Hank

Maybe by 2022 I can start to seriously consider a cruise for 2023.  There was a 10 day itinerary that I would have jumped on that included the Best sale Ever but it's for November 2021. Who knows when itineraries longer than 7 days will sail.  There is no sign for start up and cruises keep getting canceled further and further out.

[voljeep]

11 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

.  And how many can gamble on booking cruises knowing that they may be delayed getting home for up to 2 weeks?

that provision MUST be removed before we will cruise again - yep, a total deal killer for us

[reeinaz]

John Heald said that in the upcoming days, Carnival should be announcing news on protocols, b2b cruises, 8 day cruises, and more. If so, this should be an interesting week on these boards.

[clo]

On 12/28/2020 at 7:01 PM, Hlitner said:

Now compare all this to somebody simply jumping on a flight and flying to Mexico for a week vacation.  There is no need for testing, lots of options for dining, beaches, etc.  without having to take a mandatory excursion.  Islands in the Caribbean are gradually reopening for business with relatively few restrictions.  Travel is a competitive industry and folks will look for some degree of certainty and freedom.   

 

Except Mexico and the Caribbean hold no appeal for us. Now if Canada would let us in...

[ontheweb]

28 minutes ago, clo said:

Except Mexico and the Caribbean hold no appeal for us. Now if Canada would let us in...

Canada in the winter does not seem to be a big vacation alternative.😉

 

We did post cruise have a wonderful time in Montreal a few years back, but that was in the summer. I guess it would still be a fascinating city in the winter.

[clo]

2 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Canada in the winter does not seem to be a big vacation alternative.😉

 

We did post cruise have a wonderful time in Montreal a few years back, but that was in the summer. I guess it would still be a fascinating city in the winter.

I HATE the heat, sun, humidity. Yuckers 🙂 We have a small RV and when/if Canada opens its borders to us, we're heading there for a month or so. And won't watch any 'American' tv 🙂

[ontheweb]

1 minute ago, clo said:

I HATE the heat, sun, humidity. Yuckers 🙂 We have a small RV and when/if Canada opens its borders to us, we're heading there for a month or so. And won't watch any 'American' tv 🙂

I bet the news on Canadian tv is also full of coronavirus stores and grim statistics.

 

We once did a winter vacation in Lake Placid, NY. It was so COLD.

[gmjc2]

We visited San Francisco one SUMMER and it was sooo cold!!!  Wish the same could be said for Florida. The summers are no less hot but our winters are much cooler than they used to be.   BURR!!!

[clo]

2 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I bet the news on Canadian tv is also full of coronavirus stores and grim statistics.

 

I was alluding to a different issue here (but politics aren't allowed).

 

Here's where we used to live There's a six foot tall redwood fence that you can't see 🙂

 

[Hlitner]

11 hours ago, clo said:

Except Mexico and the Caribbean hold no appeal for us. Now if Canada would let us in...

Funny thing about Mexico.  For decades both DW and I had no interest in Mexico.  We had done the usual port stops in Cozumel and been to an AI near Cancun but that was it!  One year we took a Mexican Riviera cruise to Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta, Cabo, etc.  No biggie.  After we retired we wanted to find a place to spend a month (in the winter) that was on the sea, pretty inexpensive, and had decent food.  I stumbled on a Condo that was for rent in Puerto Vallarta where we had only spent one port day.  We booked a month in that PV condo not having a clue.  Within the first 10 minutes in our Condo building we made friends with two couples (Canadian and American) and after 2 weeks DW woke up one morning to the sounds of the crashing waves (we are ocean front) and said, "I like this place."  Now, more then 15 years later and having spent over 2 years of our lives in Puerto Vallarta we consider it our 2nd home.  We could live anywhere in the world in our winter months but PV is where we choose to be.  Why?  I cannot explain it but there are many other "gringos" who live part time and full time in the Bay of Bandaras area and most would tell you the same thing about loving this area and not being able to fully explain the feeling.  But it is like a bond among those that live here.  

 

Hank

[clo]

25 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

But it is like a bond among those that live here.

Bless your hearts. I'll take Canada over Mexico any day 🙂

[Hlitner]

5 minutes ago, clo said:

Bless your hearts. I'll take Canada over Mexico any day 🙂

Ahh, but will Canada take you?  Today we flew into Mexico with no hassles, no required testing, etc.  The only thing we had to do, COVID related, was fill out a very short health form which nobody even bothered to collect.   We normally drive up to Canada a couple of times a year for short vacations/wine tasting.  But since last Spring we are no longer welcome in Canada.  By the way, here in Puerto Vallarta nearly half the gringo tourists and expats are from Canada.  So, while you are trying to get into Canada many Canadians are spending their winters in Mexico in places like Puerto Vallarta, Cabo and Lake Chapala.  

 

Hank