US State Department to designate most countries with "Do Not Travel" advisory do to the pandemic

[K.T.B.]

Has anyone looked at the criteria as to what constitutes a "level 4"?  28 cases per 100,000.  The US is in the thousands per 100,000.

 

Here are the current incidence rates around the world:  LINK

[AstoriaPreppy]

31 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Has anyone looked at the criteria as to what constitutes a "level 4"?  28 cases per 100,000.  The US is in the thousands per 100,000.

Here's a better explainer from Forbes: 

"As you might expect, the State Department and CDC have different systems for assessing risk in a given country. The CDC’s Travel Health Notices system is strictly based on the health risks faced by travelers, while health is just one of many factors the State Department considers when determining its Travel Advisories. Other considerations include widespread violent or organized crime, terrorism threats, kidnapping threats, civil unrest, a natural disaster or a short-term event such as an election."

Full story here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/04/20/why-level-4-at-the-state-department-is-about-to-look-more-like-level-4-at-the-cdc/?sh=57e97acc4d94

[TeeRick]

34 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Has anyone looked at the criteria as to what constitutes a "level 4"?  28 cases per 100,000.  The US is in the thousands per 100,000.

 

Here are the current incidence rates around the world:  LINK

Thanks.  It is actually nice to see that the US is not near the very top of this list anymore for 7-day incidence rates.  Or the UK.  So vaccinations overall are making progress.  Or previous infections.

 

Here is the vaccine info per country.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

[paulh84]

32 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Has anyone looked at the criteria as to what constitutes a "level 4"?  28 cases per 100,000.  The US is in the thousands per 100,000.

 

Here are the current incidence rates around the world:  LINK

 

The CDC criteria, not State Dept (although the two are more aligned now) is partially based on a 28 day cumulative count, not 28 cases total. There is a sliding scale but a level 4 would be anything over 100 per 100,000 along with new case trajectory. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/how-level-is-determined.html

 

 

[sofietucker]

3 minutes ago, AstoriaPreppy said:

Here's a better explainer from Forbes: 

"As you might expect, the State Department and CDC have different systems for assessing risk in a given country. The CDC’s Travel Health Notices system is strictly based on the health risks faced by travelers, while health is just one of many factors the State Department considers when determining its Travel Advisories. Other considerations include widespread violent or organized crime, terrorism threats, kidnapping threats, civil unrest, a natural disaster or a short-term event such as an election."

Full story here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/04/20/why-level-4-at-the-state-department-is-about-to-look-more-like-level-4-at-the-cdc/?sh=57e97acc4d94

Right. And last year, a number of countries ranked the US as "Do Not Travel," for other reasons than simply the very high covid rates. Though our BFF Canada still doesn't want us, for those...

 

Elections: We stayed a few blocks from the Louvre--in fact, were at the museum just hours before Macron was there to claim the election--and the whole city was on high alert, swarming with police vans on the Champs-Elysee (where LePen was poised to accept the win). Very scary day. Our concierge urged us to stay in and watch TV.  Went back out a few hours after the announcement and everything was back to normal, no police in view.

[Oceangoer2]

8 minutes ago, sofietucker said:

Right. And last year, a number of countries ranked the US as "Do Not Travel," for other reasons than simply the very high covid rates. Though our BFF Canada still doesn't want us, for those...

 

Elections: We stayed a few blocks from the Louvre--in fact, were at the museum just hours before Macron was there to claim the election--and the whole city was on high alert, swarming with police vans on the Champs-Elysee (where LePen was poised to accept the win). Very scary day. Our concierge urged us to stay in and watch TV.  Went back out a few hours after the announcement and everything was back to normal, no police in view.

In my mind, Canada/US closed the border under the mutual understanding it was best for both countries due to the virus transmission.  Impression in the US for some was it was a Canadian request....maybe so...who knows what other factors may have entered into it when we're not in the discussion.  Having said that, the US has now determined Canada be a 'no travel' zone.  In both cases the closure was due to high covid numbers...yours came down, ours went sky high.  Why get political when most of us urgently want this border reopened for Cdn/US economic/travel reasons.  We can still be BFF's if we respect each other and understand the reasons why some approaches have nothing to do with 'friendship' and everything to do with citizens well-being.

[K.T.B.]

3 hours ago, paulh84 said:

 

The CDC criteria, not State Dept (although the two are more aligned now) is partially based on a 28 day cumulative count, not 28 cases total. There is a sliding scale but a level 4 would be anything over 100 per 100,000 along with new case trajectory. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/how-level-is-determined.html

 

 

 

Thanks for the correct, I obviously misread the article earlier.  Be that as it may, the US is in level 4.  The LOWEST state is Hawaii at about 2,300.  The average in the US is nearly 9,600.

 

Where's the CDC recommendation that we don't go to, say, North Dakota?  ND is the highest per 100,000, by the way, at nearly 14,000.

 

This DNT just doesn't make sense to me.... not while people are getting vaccinated.

[paulh84]

12 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Thanks for the correct, I obviously misread the article earlier.  Be that as it may, the US is in level 4.  The LOWEST state is Hawaii at about 2,300.  The average in the US is nearly 9,600.

 

Where's the CDC recommendation that we don't go to, say, North Dakota?  ND is the highest per 100,000, by the way, at nearly 14,000.

 

This DNT just doesn't make sense to me.... not while people are getting vaccinated.

 

I didn't look closely but that 14k per 100k figure for ND appears to be all time cumulative cases, not past 28 days like the State Dept is looking at. ND's current daily average rate is 19 per 100k. 

 

To be honest I think the State Dept would issue warning on a state level if reported on that level. Their travel warnings are always very conservative in nature. They do provide more granular information than I remember them doing so in the past. Simply put....don't travel to hot spots. 

 

On the surface it doesn't make a lot of since that COVID numbers continue to increase in the US as vaccinations have increased so rapidly but that's not the reality. Sure, you can argue hospitalizations, death rate, etc. but until metrics are met that significantly reduce overall incidence, it's still a battle. Then there's the next element of insulating the US from the rest of the world that is struggling so badly. That's where many people just refuse to wrap their mind around what is happening in other parts of the world.

[Ride-The-Waves]

20 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Thanks for the correct, I obviously misread the article earlier.  Be that as it may, the US is in level 4.  The LOWEST state is Hawaii at about 2,300.  The average in the US is nearly 9,600.

 

Where's the CDC recommendation that we don't go to, say, North Dakota?  ND is the highest per 100,000, by the way, at nearly 14,000.

 

This DNT just doesn't make sense to me.... not while people are getting vaccinated.

The rate of vaccinations in the US is decreasing.  There are countries where the infection rate is extremely high and counties which have not even begun to vaccinate.  Having the vaccination doesn't imply one cannot get COVID-19 - the efficacy rate is 95 present after two inoculations and drops with time.  New strains are also on the rise.  It's till very dangerous to travel.

[AstoriaPreppy]

4 hours ago, K.T.B. said:

Where's the CDC recommendation that we don't go to, say, North Dakota?  ND is the highest per 100,000, by the way, at nearly 14,000.

The CDC has had extensive guidance on travel domestically throughout the pandemic, that is updated regularly. Currently, this guidance is being broken out between fully vaccinated/unvaccinated people. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/travel-during-covid19.html

 

 

[cruiserchuck]

So it looks like Bhutan is the only country in the world still at level 1.  If it were not landlocked, we could take a cruise there.  

[Host Jazzbeau]

On 4/22/2021 at 6:14 PM, cruiserchuck said:

So it looks like Bhutan is the only country in the world still at level 1.  If it were not landlocked, we could take a cruise there.  

I only go there when I need to refill my Bhutan lighter 🤣

[ipeeinthepool]

9 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

The rate of vaccinations in the US is decreasing.  There are countries where the infection rate is extremely high and counties which have not even begun to vaccinate.  Having the vaccination doesn't imply one cannot get COVID-19 - the efficacy rate is 95 present after two inoculations and drops with time.  New strains are also on the rise.  It's till very dangerous to travel.

 

Everything but your last sentence is true.

[Ride-The-Waves]

12 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Everything but your last sentence is true.

Is that an official US Department of State perspective?  DoS lists only Bhutan as "exercise normal precautions" while traveling and Bhutan is not COVID-19 free.  The country has reported 1,008 cases and one death.  Additionally, the US presence in Bhutan is via the US Embassy New Delhi.  India is a "Do Not Travel" country and is experiencing some of the worst incidents of yet of the pandemic.  You likely will not get any US assistance in Bhutan, if needed.

Edited April 23, 2021 by Ride-The-Waves

[ipeeinthepool]

22 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Is that an official US Department of State perspective?  DoS lists only Bhutan as "exercise normal precautions" while traveling and Bhutan is not COVID-19 free.  The country has reported 1,008 cases and one death.  Additionally, the US presence in Bhutan is via the US Embassy New Delhi.  India is a "Do Not Travel" country and is experiencing some of the worst incidents of yet of the pandemic.  You likely will not get any US assistance in Bhutan, if needed.

 

I'm sorry but it is not very dangerous to travel.  I and most of the world do not care about Bhutan.  I'll take my chances with a 95% efficacy of contracting some form of Covid and nearly 100% effectiveness against serious illness.  Take some reasonable precautions against and it will be even safer.

[iancal]

On 4/22/2021 at 6:49 AM, K.T.B. said:

Has anyone looked at the criteria as to what constitutes a "level 4"?  28 cases per 100,000.  The US is in the thousands per 100,000.

 

Here are the current incidence rates around the world:  LINK

These are the numbers (and the trends) that we look at for a various  countries.   They give us a much better understanding of our chances to travel than does the incredible amount of conflicting rhetoric from self serving  politicians and industry types.   Numbers tell the real story.

[Host Jazzbeau]

On 4/22/2021 at 8:49 AM, K.T.B. said:

Has anyone looked at the criteria as to what constitutes a "level 4"?  28 cases per 100,000.  The US is in the thousands per 100,000.

 

Here are the current incidence rates around the world:  LINK

Thanks for posting this link.  I notice that the charge is continually updated, which is also a good thing.

 

Does anybody know why Diamond Princess and MS Zaandam are listed [at the bottom]?  Are further, how is it possible that their number is minus 1 [-1]?

[cruiselvr04]

If we are concerned about every variant we may stay locked up forever.  The DH and I are fortunate to be fully immunized.  We are starting to go out on patios to eat, going into stores as needed and getting on with life.  We still mask and wash/sanitize.  We are tired of take out ( still dishes), only doing on line order or pick up for everything else and not traveling.   Life is short, too short to keep up with the isolation etc.  Hopefully if we pick up a new variant the vaccines will give us some protection. 

[markeb]

21 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Does anybody know why Diamond Princess and MS Zaandam are listed [at the bottom]?  Are further, how is it possible that their number is minus 1 [-1]?

 

I don't "know", but a couple of educated guesses.

 

Probably they were in the original datasets, and have just carried through. This is an open source dataset, and there's probably a reluctance to delete something once it's there.

 

Never was good at programming languages, but if you look at the individual tables for the two ships (not the overall summary), they both show "NaN", or not a number, probably created by dividing by zero. I'm assuming there's a substitution in their code that replaces infinity with -1 as a convention. There's some explanation when you go clicking around, and they do generally show their code, but I'm not good enough to recognize that in the code.

[mom says]

39 minutes ago, cruiselvr04 said:

 Hopefully if we pick up a new variant the vaccines will give us some protection. 

Well if hopefully is good enough for you, then carry on. BTW, do you have any loved ones, friends, acquaintances, or co workers at home? You would have no qualms about bringing that variant home with you and spreading it around? Because you know that everyone will be vaccinated and have achieved the maximum possible immunity? 

[cruiselvr04]

I’m not near anyone except my spouse without a mask on.  He is also willing to take the risk.  And I’m not talking about going to a bar without a mask.  I’m speaking of going to eat on patios, brief encounters at a store,  all socially distanced, with a mask, things that some have been doing for months.  You are right in that it is personal responsibility to watch for those at risk, which we both do.  But for us, it is time to re-enter life with care. 
 

Today I saw a video of an elderly couple in a nursing home who had been kept apart for a year.  It broke my heart when they were reunited.  Sure it kept them safe.  They have so little time left in life and a year of that was forced to be kept apart “for their own good”.  As a cancer patient I have considered quality of life vs quantity.  Food for thought....
 

29 minutes ago, mom says said:

 

29 minutes ago, mom says said:

Well if hopefully is good enough for you, then carry on. BTW, do you have any loved ones, friends, acquaintances, or co workers at home? You would have no qualms about bringing that variant home with you and spreading it around? Because you know that everyone will be vaccinated and have achieved the maximum possible immunity? 

 

[ipeeinthepool]

36 minutes ago, mom says said:

Well if hopefully is good enough for you, then carry on. BTW, do you have any loved ones, friends, acquaintances, or co workers at home? You would have no qualms about bringing that variant home with you and spreading it around? Because you know that everyone will be vaccinated and have achieved the maximum possible immunity? 

 

Everyone should have the opportunity to get vaccinated very soon.  If someone chooses not to get vaccinated then they need to deal with the consequences.  We cannot continue the shutdown to protect people that choose not to get vaccinated.  If someone cannot take the vaccine, they need to protect themselves from everyone, including me.

[LGW59]

51 minutes ago, mom says said:

Well if hopefully is good enough for you, then carry on. BTW, do you have any loved ones, friends, acquaintances, or co workers at home? You would have no qualms about bringing that variant home with you and spreading it around? Because you know that everyone will be vaccinated and have achieved the maximum possible immunity? 

We cannot stay inside forever, once we are vaccinated, we have made our contribution to our own health and the ones who decide to not get the vaccine.  They then need to take ownership.   

[mom says]

Let me try this one more time. Since the topic was the State Dept. travel advisories, my previous comment was about traveling, not going to your neighbourhood bar or bistro. And the likelihood of picking up a variant and bringing it home. Look past your own self interest. The more this happens, the more the variants spread. Why? Because not everyone is vaccinated (either by choice or medical necessity) or do not have a high degree if conferred immunity. The more variants, the greater the likelihood of a resistant mutation. Guess what happens if a resistant variant runs rampant, as some of the new variants are right now. It's great if your locale has now achieved herd immunity and you can freely go about your life at home. But the rest of the world isn't nearly there yet. Consider that before hopping on a jet to your next vacation.

[LGW59]

4 minutes ago, mom says said:

Let me try this one more time. Since the topic was the State Dept. travel advisories, my previous comment was about traveling, not going to your neighbourhood bar or bistro. And the likelihood of picking up a variant and bringing it home. Look past your own self interest. The more this happens, the more the variants spread. Why? Because not everyone is vaccinated (either by choice or medical necessity) or do not have a high degree if conferred immunity. The more variants, the greater the likelihood of a resistant mutation. Guess what happens if a resistant variant runs rampant, as some of the new variants are right now. It's great if your locale has now achieved herd immunity and you can freely go about your life at home. But the rest of the world isn't nearly there yet. Consider that before hopping on a jet to your next vacation.

Just back from a fantastic vacation in Mexico, was very cautious, followed all protocols, including wearing a mask indoors, prior to being seated, but never wore it on the beach and when walking around it was generally around my chin, until I approached anyone at which time I masked up.  Like I said, I am vaxed up, felt totally safe to be somewhat normal again.