Cruising Without a Vaccination

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, ziggyuk said:

 

Of those hospitalised 12 have actually had two shots of vaccine, what we are seeing is much less hospitalisation and significantly less deaths due to the vaccine.

The Delta variant is thought to be 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant.

 

Are you experiencing much less hospitalization (yet more transmission) due to the vaccine or due to the way viruses naturally evolve?

 

Over the course of time, viruses typically become more contagious but less deadly in an attempt at basic survival. Making the claim this is due solely to the vaccine may prove incorrect. I suspect the reaction you are seeing in the UK is a result of both the vaccine and natural immunity.

[ziggyuk]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Are you experiencing much less hospitalization (yet more transmission) due to the vaccine or due to the way viruses naturally evolve?

 

Over the course of time, viruses typically become more contagious but less deadly in an attempt at basic survival. Making the claim this is due solely to the vaccine may prove incorrect. I suspect the reaction you are seeing in the UK is a result of both the vaccine and natural immunity.

 

We have vaccinated mostly by age, what we are finding is the transmission is 60% higher in the unvaccinated but as most of the unvaccinated are younger now, this tends to mean there are lower hospitalisations and therefore lower deaths.

 

It really is down to the age of those catching it.

 

Incidentally, they are also finding it much more transmissible in children.

 

This was publish yesterday:

The Delta variant: 5% of all hospitalisations with the variant had been fully vaccinated, whereas 75% were unvaccinated and 20% had been partially vaccinated.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, ziggyuk said:

 

We have vaccinated mostly by age, what we are finding is the transmission is 60% higher in the unvaccinated but as most of the unvaccinated are younger now, this tends to mean there are lower hospitalisations and therefore lower deaths.

 

It really is down to the age of those catching it.

 

Incidentally, they are also finding it much more transmissible in children.

 

This was publish yesterday:

The Delta variant: 5% of all hospitalisations with the variant had been fully vaccinated, whereas 75% were unvaccinated and 20% had been partially vaccinated.

 

 

 

I can't get to the link (was the blue part supposed to be a live link?). I need to know the raw numbers of those hospitalized to draw any type of conclusion from the statement.

[KennyFla]

2 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

 

This was publish yesterday:

The Delta variant: 5% of all hospitalisations with the variant had been fully vaccinated, whereas 75% were unvaccinated and 20% had been partially vaccinated.

 

 

5% of people hospitalized were fully vaccinated?

[ziggyuk]

1 minute ago, KennyFla said:

5% of people hospitalized were fully vaccinated?

 

Yes, that is the takeaway, fully vaccinated does not make you 100% safe as some think.
It's NOT 5% catching the Delta variant, it's 5% of all hospitalisations are full vaccinated (excuse my British spelling).

But for those unvaccinated that 75% is a big number.

[spanishguy1970]

On 6/9/2021 at 12:31 AM, CaptainWoody said:

I thought that the consensus was to NOT laminate due to potential degradation of inks and inability to add a future booster?

I was told that too by the nurse who gave me the vaccine. In fact, she advised me to take a pic of the card and keep it in my files, which i did.

[ziggyuk]

21 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I can't get to the link (was the blue part supposed to be a live link?). I need to know the raw numbers of those hospitalized to draw any type of conclusion from the statement.

 

It wasn't a link but here is a link. In this particular link they suggest 50% more transmissibility, reports range between 50-60%

 

As well as the link above you can see it here too.

This guardian article says:
One shining light however is that vaccination still appears to be making an impact on spread,” she said, noting 73% of Delta cases are in unvaccinated people and only 3.7% Delta cases are in people who’ve had both doses, while only 5% of people hospitalised with this variant have had both jabs.

 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by ziggyuk

[JamieLogical]

2 minutes ago, spanishguy1970 said:

I was told that too by the nurse who gave me the vaccine. In fact, she advised me to take a pic of the card and keep it in my files, which i did.

 

Anyone looking for a safe way to transport/store their CDC card, I got these passport covers off of Amazon and the back pocket is the perfect size for the card:

 

https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B07VF53P8C?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details

 

We had taken a trip to Cancun and just tucked our CDC cards into our passports and they would fall out constantly, so when we got home, I ordered these right away to keep our passport and CDC cards together for future travel.

[spanishguy1970]

1 minute ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Anyone looking for a safe way to transport/store their CDC card, I got these passport covers off of Amazon and the back pocket is the perfect size for the card:

 

https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B07VF53P8C?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details

 

We had taken a trip to Cancun and just tucked our CDC cards into our passports and they would fall out constantly, so when we got home, I ordered these right away to keep our passport and CDC cards together for future travel.

 I completely agree. My vaccine card is already inside an RFID protected passport cover.

[latebloomer56]

I don't want the vaccine, I don't even get the flu shot. That said I will need this to cruise period so guess it needs to be done. I do not want anybody to get sick because of me and just as important to me personally I don't want to go through what is left of my life without cruising :).

I won't use any app but will have the proof, agree fake cards are dangerous and if I have to get it so does everybody else. Totally agree with all passengers and crew to be vaccinated for everyone's sake on and off the ship.

Happy sailing stay safe.

[Oxo]

FYI - Just found this Covid19 news article regarding ports of call. As we know this could change at anytime. 

So far, seems positive.

Stay Safe! 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ceciliarodriguez/2021/06/08/europe-hotspots-opening-france-spain-greece-portugal-italy-ready-for-tourists-travel-pass-and-rules-for-entry/

 

https://9to5mac.com/2021/06/10/iata-travel-pass-app/

Edited June 10, 2021 by Oxo

[julig22]

4 hours ago, KennyFla said:

More and more research is showing that recovered immunity is very comparable to vaccine immunity:

 

According to the researchers, 11.3% of the patients who tested positive for antibodies also had a positive diagnostic test for the coronavirus within 30 days, 2.7% had a positive diagnostic test result within days 31 to 60, 1.1% had a positive result within days 61 to 90, and 0.3% had a positive result at more than 90 days.

In comparison, among the 2.9 million patients who had tested negative for coronavirus antibodies at the outset, 3.9% had a positive diagnostic test for the coronavirus within 30 days. According to the researchers, "That proportion remained relatively consistent at approximately 3.0% over all subsequent periods of observation, including after 90 days."

 

https://www.advisory.com/en/daily-briefing/2021/03/02/reinfection

 

 

And just shortly after the date on  your "immunity" research link (which would be data collected months earlier and says nothing about natural vs vaccine-induced immunity), here is what happened https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y

Real life.  And nowhere is there any indication that natural immunity to a single strain provides immunity to the variants which was my original statement.

[YankeeFan4Ever]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Information about covid is so fluid it's hard to tell, but over the course of history, a virus has one job: to live. In order to accomplish this task, two things happen. It becomes more contagious and less deadly. In other words, it needs to infect as many people as possible but benefits most when it does not kill it's host. I suspect that is what is happening with variants. Time will tell. 

 

Unfortunately, what has happened in America is a tremendous lack of confidence in the CDC. Some of it unfairly, but some of it justly (imo). Unfortunately, many people read an article and take it for fact and do not allow for changing information.  Hence many people on this forum repeatedly stating vaccines supplied better immunity. Truth is, we just don't know yet. I suspect, when it's all sorted, natural immunity will prove better than vaccines especially when dealing with variants, but I'm basing that on the history of virus behavior. I may be wrong, but what I do know is that we don't know yet. Even the scientists who are making the claim that the vaccine is more efficient do so with the disclaimer that this is still under study. Unfortunately, it gets presented by regular 'folk' in forums like this as fact. 

 

Here's another example of information evolving from the CDC. It has been stated over and over how the vaccines are perfectly safe. To the best of our knowledge, they are overall very safe. BUT information is evolving. The CDC published information countering the data from Israel warning of a cardiac reaction to mRNA vaccines mid may. Stating there was no evidence of connection between mRNA and myrocarditis (heart problems after receiving the vaccine). They published this mid may.  Just two weeks later, the CDC backtracked, acknowledging there is likely a connection between the mRNA vaccine and myrocarditis. This is relevant for anyone under 30 considering the vaccine.

 

"The advisers' statement, posted June 1 on the CDC website, strikes a different note from their statement about two weeks earlier, which said that the rates of myocarditis -- inflammation of the heart muscle -- were not higher among vaccinated people than among unvaccinated people."

A link between Covid-19 vaccination and a cardiac illness may be getting clearer | News | wfsb.com

 

I mention this 'flip flop' by the CDC not because I think the vaccine is "bad" or that I think myrocarditis is deadly.  Quite the contrary.  But I do not believe we know the long term effects (and effectiveness) of the vaccine.

 

The information is fluid. 

 

Great post, however I have to disagree with one point: In certain viruses, natural immunity is short lived. Influenza is one example. The flu virus mutates quickly and often, making it difficult for our immune system to keep up. This results in many people getting severe symptomatic flu infections on a yearly basis. An annual flu vaccine greatly reduces the severity and duration of disease. We could therefore conclude that as COVID-19 keeps evolving and mutating, our best bet to limit severe disease outcome would be through vaccines, not natural immunity.

 

Just my opinion.

[KennyFla]

21 minutes ago, julig22 said:

And just shortly after the date on  your "immunity" research link (which would be data collected months earlier and says nothing about natural vs vaccine-induced immunity), here is what happened https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y

Real life.  And nowhere is there any indication that natural immunity to a single strain provides immunity to the variants which was my original statement.

Nothing in that article is about re-infection, just that the new variants are more contagious.   I think that is true.

 

One explanation might be that the first wave primarily hit the urban poor. Antibody studies might not have been representative of the entire population and potentially overestimated exposure in other groups, he says.

The antibody data did not reflect the uneven spread of the virus, agrees Gagandeep Kang, a virologist at the Christian Medical College in Vellore, India. “The virus may be getting into populations that were previously able to protect themselves,” she says. That could include wealthier urban communities, in which people isolated during the first wave but had started mingling by the second.

 

 

[CaptainWoody]

3 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Anyone looking for a safe way to transport/store their CDC card, I got these passport covers off of Amazon and the back pocket is the perfect size for the card:

 

https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B07VF53P8C?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details

 

We had taken a trip to Cancun and just tucked our CDC cards into our passports and they would fall out constantly, so when we got home, I ordered these right away to keep our passport and CDC cards together for future travel.

Good suggesting @JamieLogical.  We bought these:

 

Amazon.com | Passport Holder Cover Wallet RFID Blocking Leather Card Case Travel Document Organizer (Coffee Grey) | Passport Covers

 

Black one for me and dark gray for DW.  That way we know which passport is which without opening them up.

[julig22]

1 hour ago, YankeeFan4Ever said:

Great post, however I have to disagree with one point: In certain viruses, natural immunity is short lived. Influenza is one example. The flu virus mutates quickly and often, making it difficult for our immune system to keep up. This results in many people getting severe symptomatic flu infections on a yearly basis. An annual flu vaccine greatly reduces the severity and duration of disease. We could therefore conclude that as COVID-19 keeps evolving and mutating, our best bet to limit severe disease outcome would be through vaccines, not natural immunity.

 

Just my opinion.

Exactly.  Generally speaking, natural immunity does not afford immunity against mutations.  But unlike flu, the mRNA vaccines are  effective against mutations simply because they recognize similar viruses and dont require an exact match.

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, latebloomer56 said:

I don't want the vaccine, I don't even get the flu shot. That said I will need this to cruise period so guess it needs to be done. I do not want anybody to get sick because of me and just as important to me personally I don't want to go through what is left of my life without cruising :).

I won't use any app but will have the proof, agree fake cards are dangerous and if I have to get it so does everybody else. Totally agree with all passengers and crew to be vaccinated for everyone's sake on and off the ship.

Happy sailing stay safe.

I don’t think everyone will need the vaccine to cruise “period”. There is a gray area. Forever banning unvaccinated likely can’t  hold up long term from a business model. 
 

I do think those who remain unvaccinated will

need to be patient. But I believe that as we learn more, respond better, and reach herd immunity those who are unvaccinated will be welcomed aboard with open arms.

 

The industry is in a precarious position. They risk survival if we don’t get the return to cruising correct, but they also risk survival if they alienate a large percentage of their customer base.

 

My prediction- cruises resume requiring 95% vaccination (per cdc). This figure will evolve as we learn more about how to respond  to the virus. In the absence of another surge, i suspect it won’t take long.

[JamieLogical]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I don’t think everyone will need the vaccine to cruise “period”. There is a gray area. Forever banning unvaccinated likely can’t  hold up long term from a business model. 
 

I do think those who remain unvaccinated will

need to be patient. But I believe that as we learn more, respond better, and reach herd immunity those who are unvaccinated will be welcomed aboard with open arms.

 

The industry is in a precarious position. They risk survival if we don’t get the return to cruising correct, but they also risk survival if they alienate a large percentage of their customer base.

 

My prediction- cruises resume requiring 95% vaccination (per cdc). This figure will evolve as we learn more about how to respond  to the virus. In the absence of another surge, i suspect it won’t take long.

 

While I agree that there will likely, eventually be an end to COVID requirements for cruising, I don't think it will be very soon. Remember, cruises are international travel, carrying passengers and crew from all over the world. While we might be reaching herd immunity in places like the US, UK, Canada, and EU by the end of 2021, I read an article today that the hope to have just 10% of Africa vaccinated by the end of the year may be overly ambitious.

[cscurlock]

4 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

While I agree that there will likely, eventually be an end to COVID requirements for cruising, I don't think it will be very soon. Remember, cruises are international travel, carrying passengers and crew from all over the world. While we might be reaching herd immunity in places like the US, UK, Canada, and EU by the end of 2021, I read an article today that the hope to have just 10% of Africa vaccinated by the end of the year may be overly ambitious.

I think some protocols will be around for a couple years.  Not all of them but some of them.

[WarfRatWA]

12 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I don’t think everyone will need the vaccine to cruise “period”. There is a gray area. Forever banning unvaccinated likely can’t  hold up long term from a business model. 
 

I do think those who remain unvaccinated will

need to be patient. But I believe that as we learn more, respond better, and reach herd immunity those who are unvaccinated will be welcomed aboard with open arms.

 

The industry is in a precarious position. They risk survival if we don’t get the return to cruising correct, but they also risk survival if they alienate a large percentage of their customer base.

 

My prediction- cruises resume requiring 95% vaccination (per cdc). This figure will evolve as we learn more about how to respond  to the virus. In the absence of another surge, i suspect it won’t take long.

As Jamie mentioned, US herd immunity really means nothing given the international aspect to cruising.  The biggest risk to the cruise industry, is a COVID outbreak during a cruise.  The dollars the unvaccinated  bring to the table won't/can't make up for an outbreak at sea.  The smart move is to have 100% vaccinated cruises.  IMO. 

[BermudaBound2014]

9 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

While I agree that there will likely, eventually be an end to COVID requirements for cruising, I don't think it will be very soon. Remember, cruises are international travel, carrying passengers and crew from all over the world. While we might be reaching herd immunity in places like the US, UK, Canada, and EU by the end of 2021, I read an article today that the hope to have just 10% of Africa vaccinated by the end of the year may be overly ambitious.

 

I do respect what you are saying. I am well aware of how the rest of the world is managing covid. I have been tracking both South America and Africa because we have an Antarctica trip (Jan 2022) and African trip (Jan 2023) reserved. No doubt you bring up valid points. I suspect that at this time we agree overall, but could have a friendly debate regarding how the industry will eventually quantify 'very soon'. 

 

I think the timeline is months not years. I'm giving it until Q122 before cruise lines decide to accept unvaccinated passengers from areas that have reached stability. It is likely that not all areas of the world will be welcomed back to cruising simultaneously.

 

One variable unaccounted for is pent up FCC's floating around among vaccinated passengers. I believe cruise lines will only hold out as long as the pent up demand of vaccinated customers allows. Once that cash stream dries up, I think the unvaccinated will be welcomed. Right or wrong, I see this as a business decision.

 

Of course, this is all just my opinion. I know that typically goes without saying on a message board, but I realize that my views of how the industry will respond are in the minority so I like to add the disclaimer 🙂

[BermudaBound2014]

10 minutes ago, WarfRatWA said:

As Jamie mentioned, US herd immunity really means nothing given the international aspect to cruising.  The biggest risk to the cruise industry, is a COVID outbreak during a cruise.  The dollars the unvaccinated  bring to the table won't/can't make up for an outbreak at sea.  The smart move is to have 100% vaccinated cruises.  IMO. 

 

You think there will be 100% vaccinated cruises indefinitely? Not a chance.

 

Mind you, I absolutely agree that we must avoid an outbreak at all cost as we resume cruising. The news will be ready to pounce. But the way an outbreak is handled will be significantly different than the diamond princess. You do realize that A MSC ship had covid aboard last week? They didn't quarantine everyone in their cabins. It hardly made the news.

 

Covid will happen onboard. It's unavoidable. But if we can get multiple successful voyages under our belt first and rebuild consumer confidence, a covid case onboard won't be an issue. After all, the best estimates are that approximately 60-75% of passengers will be vaccinated. Another group will have some level of natural immunity. The chance of 700 infections and 14 people dying onboard (like the diamond princess) is miniscule. 

[WarfRatWA]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

You think there will be 100% vaccinated cruises indefinitely? Not a chance.

 

Mind you, I absolutely agree that we must avoid an outbreak at all cost as we resume cruising. The news will be ready to pounce. But the way an outbreak is handled will be significantly different than the diamond princess. You do realize that A MSC ship had covid aboard last week? They didn't quarantine everyone in their cabins. It hardly made the news.

 

Covid will happen onboard. It's unavoidable. But if we can get multiple successful voyages under our belt first and rebuild consumer confidence, a covid case onboard won't be an issue. After all, the best estimates are that approximately 60-75% of passengers will be vaccinated. Another group will have some level of natural immunity. The chance of 700 infections and 14 people dying onboard (like the diamond princess) is miniscule. 

I don't think its indefinite....but it will continue into the near future.  USA Today reported the Seaside event.  That's making the news I think.  BTW, that was only 2 people, not an outbreak, nor would that situation be indicative of an outbreak.  The minute 50-100+ people come up hot AND have symptoms, the paradigm changes. 

 

My point was the smart move is to have 100% vaccinated cruises....the cruise industry isn't really about the smart move...its about numbers and filling ships.

 

My hope is that there will be the option of 100% vaccinated cruises regardless of cruise line.  BTW, do you think they will have 100% vaccinated passengers on the inaugural run of the PRIMA? 

[DCGuy64]

22 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

The chance of 700 infections and 14 people dying onboard (like the diamond princess) is miniscule. 

I'm just excerpting this part, @BermudaBound2014, but I agree with 100% of what you said above.

I refuse to believe that the nightmare scenario some envision will take place, for many reasons, but mainly because there's too much riding on getting things right. The way some people continually go on about "it'll only take one outbreak," I'm beginning to think people have got money riding on this. I'm with you, I think the Diamond Princess incident is a thing of the past. Not that there will be no outbreaks whatsoever, but as you alluded to, the Seaside "incident" went largely unnoticed. (and the cruise didn't grind to a halt as many predicted)

[BermudaBound2014]

9 minutes ago, WarfRatWA said:

I don't think its indefinite....but it will continue into the near future.  USA Today reported the Seaside event.  That's making the news I think.  BTW, that was only 2 people, not an outbreak, nor would that situation be indicative of an outbreak.  The minute 50-100+ people come up hot AND have symptoms, the paradigm changes. 

 

My point was the smart move is to have 100% vaccinated cruises....the cruise industry isn't really about the smart move...its about numbers and filling ships.

 

My hope is that there will be the option of 100% vaccinated cruises regardless of cruise line.  BTW, do you think they will have 100% vaccinated passengers on the inaugural run of the PRIMA? 

 

I think we are agreeing on all the important things. We appear to disagree on the time line for when cruises will welcome back the unvaccinated. But that's just a matter of time (literally) :).

 

And I would agree that 50-100 cases onboard would be a game changer. I believe those numbers are highly unlikely now. We know so much more about covid than we did with the Diamond Princess and there are many more safe guards that will remain in place. But I agree that should an outbreak of that magnitude occur it's a major problem for the industry. 

 

You are asking my opinion of the Prima? My opinion is that NCL keeps 100% vaccinated through October 31, 2021 at the latest. Heck, I think there is a chance the NCL policy might actually change prior to its expiration.

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by BermudaBound2014