Must Read ... Extension and Modification of CDC CSO dated 10/25/21

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, SonuvaBeach said:

Quite true. I came down with a very bad sinus infection in September while on the Celebrity Equinox... tiredness, congestion, runny nose, incessant dry cough, fever,  etc.. I woke up at 1AM one night and could not stop coughing for over an hour. I  called the Medical Center, and they took me in at 2AM. After a very thorough exam by a VERY professional nurse and Doctor, a Covid PCR test, and a $305 bill later, I was told NO COVID, just a very severe sinus infection that was not even contagious.  Did i do the right thing going for the test with the possibility of my wife and i being quarantined for the whole trip just for a sinus infection? I have no doubt I did, even though it cost  $305 to find out I was not infected with Covid. I could not bear the thought of infecting someone with COVID and then finding out died because of ME!

I hope you had travel insurance that would pay that $305. or at least most of it after a deductible.

[SonuvaBeach]

13 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I hope you had travel insurance that would pay that $305. or at least most of it after a deductible.

yes. and medicare.

[vicd1969]

Didn't Nieuw Amsterdam first sail on July 24? If so, then it may have been Cruise ship A or B, since the CDC report has July 24 as the start date for its discussion on those ships. Not saying NA is likely to be A or B, just that you can't rule it out. It's less likely to have been Ship C or D given their later starting date range.

[NavArch64]

The first post-pandemic sailing of Nieuw Amsterdam was on July 24. 2021. I sailed on voyage 2 on July 31, 2021.

Edited October 26, 2021 by NavArch64

[KroozNut]

9 hours ago, grest said:

we owe it to everyone on the ship to be honest, and to be careful and considerate.

 

Unfortunately, a very tall order in today's world..

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, SonuvaBeach said:

yes. and medicare.

👍

[igraf]

5 hours ago, Caribbean Chris said:

 

The CDC advises that vaccines are "effective at preventing most infections" and uses the terminology "breakthrough":

• COVID-19 vaccines protect people from getting infected and severely ill, and significantly reduce the likelihood of hospitalization and death.
• Getting vaccinated is the best way to slow the spread of COVID-19 and to prevent infection by Delta or other variants.
• A vaccine breakthrough infection happens when a fully vaccinated person gets infected with COVID-19. People with vaccine breakthrough infections may spread COVID-19 to others. etc.....
• Vaccine breakthrough infections are expected. COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing most infections. However, like other vaccines, they are not 100% effective. etc.....

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

 

 

The first bullet has it right  It does not say not getting infected, it says not getting infected AND severely ill.  The other bullets are just sloppy public relations.  Yes, this can happen from the CDC.  They have to get the message quickly across to frightened people with no medical knowledge.

 

It comes down to definitions.  If a virus enters my body and my boosted immune system immediately destroys the virus, then I was infected but did not get sick.  If I beat off the virus more slowly and feel sick during the process then this is a "breakthrough" infection.  If I am forever protected inside a plastic bubble or live alone on an island, then and only then will I never get infected.

 

igraf

 

 

 

[nocl]

10 hours ago, igraf said:

 

A common misconception that will probably never go away.   Vaccines do not prevent infections.  There is no protective shield around one's body.   Rather, a vaccine will boost one's immune system so that the infection can be effectively fought off without serious illness.

 

It is sad, but there is nothing new about passengers dying on cruise ships.

 

igraf

 

 

 

According to the studies the vaccines prevent infection in a high percentage of cases depending upon the exact vaccine. you can break the vaccinated population into 3 categories when they receive an infectious of the virus. A those that are not infected. B those that are infected but have asymptomatic.mild symptomatic illness and group C those that develop serious illness. For example with Pfizer and Delta the numbers are around A 60% B 30% and C 10%.

 

So while vaccines do energize the bodies immune system in a large percentage of cases that works well enough to prevent virus replication and infection.

 

The medical definition of infection is entry and growth. So if the immune system prevents reproduction they are not infected and will not become infectious.

Edited October 27, 2021 by nocl

[zgscl]

16 hours ago, NavArch64 said:

Very revealing ... 1359 COVID19 cases on cruise ships in restart in US ... now we know why so many ships were/are YELLOW.

Has anyone seen the number of passengers that have traveled on US sailings?  Difficult to compare to what is happening on land without it. 

[12cruise2]

To the best of my knowledge and experience, Medicare does not cover reimbursements for illnesses and care on board a cruise ship--they deny claims saying that if you are on a ship, you are in international waters.  My point in mentioning this is so that folks don't think for sure that Medicare covers onboard illnesses and that they get travel insurance to be sure their medical claims will be covered.  Please, please do your research before you assume whatever medical insurance you have will cover you on your cruise so you are fully informed.

[SargassoPirate]

9 hours ago, nocl said:

According to the studies the vaccines prevent infection in a high percentage of cases depending upon the exact vaccine. you can break the vaccinated population into 3 categories when they receive an infectious of the virus. A those that are not infected. B those that are infected but have asymptomatic.mild symptomatic illness and group C those that develop serious illness. For example with Pfizer and Delta the numbers are around A 60% B 30% and C 10%.

 

So while vaccines do energize the bodies immune system in a large percentage of cases that works well enough to prevent virus replication and infection.

 

The medical definition of infection is entry and growth. So if the immune system prevents reproduction they are not infected and will not become infectious.

Did you ever take a look at the CDC data for breakthrough transmission?

[nocl]

1 hour ago, SargassoPirate said:

Did you ever take a look at the CDC data for breakthrough transmission?

yes.

 

Keep in mind that the CDC also announced back in early summer thT they were only looking at serious break through cases.   And even those were a subset from a few different sources (depending upon data set and purpose of the data)

 

 There is not a comprehensive source tracking all breakthrough infections in the US. On the other hand if you look at Israel, who uses the same vaccines, they have done some studies tracking break through cases. It is where some of the recent vaccine efficacy data comes from.

 

 

[SargassoPirate]

3 minutes ago, nocl said:

yes.

 

Keep in mind that the CDC also announced back in early summer thT they were only looking at serious break through cases.   And even those were a subset from a few different sources (depending upon data set and purpose of the data)

 

 There is not a comprehensive source tracking all breakthrough infections in the US. On the other hand if you look at Israel, who uses the same vaccines, they have done some studies tracking break through cases. It is where some of the recent vaccine efficacy data comes from.

 

 

Thanks.  

 

I tend to try to drill down to actual infection, hospitalization, and death rates as percentages of the whole. 

 

In Statistics 101 many years ago, the mantra was "figures don't lie, but liars figure".

 

It makes me wonder why the CSO cited numbers of cases within the cruise industry, but failed to include the number of passengers and crew on those sailings.

 

 

[nocl]

2 minutes ago, SargassoPirate said:

Thanks.  

 

I tend to try to drill down to actual infection, hospitalization, and death rates as percentages of the whole. 

 

In Statistics 101 many years ago, the mantra was "figures don't lie, but liars figure".

 

It makes me wonder why the CSO cited numbers of cases within the cruise industry, but failed to include the number of passengers and crew on those sailings.

 

 

Probably because in the report the combined number wad important to make their point along with the descriptions of passengers ignoring symptoms.

 

A freedom of information request could probably be filed (I expect the Miami Herald will do a story at some point) to get the detailed information. However FOI requests can get expensive since agencies can charge for the cost of answering the request.

 

 

[SonuvaBeach]

On the Equinox in September, the ship's Captain and the Cruise Director addressed the question of  Covid cases on Celebrity Cruises. They claimed that, at that time, Celebrity ships had entertained over 500,00 passengers so far in 2021 and had only had 150 positive cases of Covid on their ships. That would be a VERY small percentile.

[cbr663]

9 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Back on topic. Clearly, covid is a problem even for cruise ships following CDC guidelines. There's the case of Cruise Ship F, with mass outbreaks on consecutive cruises. Crew and pax 100% vaccinated.

 

Let's look at the CDC rating of cruise ships servicing the USA (Cruise Ship Color Status - thanks to NavArch64)...

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/cruise-ship-color-status.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Ftravelers%2Fcrew-disembarkations-commercial-travel.html

 

Of the 90+ ships, 22 are being investigated or monitored. That's a quarter of cruise ships with cases detected on board. Sailing at 1/4 to a third capacity. With crew and passengers >95% fully vax.

 

That is the reality today.

 

 

 

A couple of statements stood out to me from the Order:

 

"The Director continues to find evidence to support a reasonable belief that cruise ships are or 
may be infected or contaminated with a quarantinable communicable disease.41" pg. 26

 

"Multiple studies have confirmed that COVID-19 transmission rates onboard cruise ships are higher than in other settings." Pg 26 Footnote 42

 

"Overall, it was shown that cruise ships are closed environments with confined public rooms and accommodations, shared sanitary facilities, joint water and food provisions accommodating a high population density of persons from different countries [75]. Other challenges resulted from the displayed age structure on the cruise ships accommodating a high number of older and often above average multi-morbid people which were exposed to an increased risk of complications due to COVID-19".  https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/10/5195/htm from footnote 42 Pg 26

 

[Daniel A]

20 hours ago, *Miss G* said:

 

Many medical conditions mirror the same symptoms so it’s possible some aren’t intentionally lying.

 

17 hours ago, Caribbean Chris said:

You are right. There's no way to know from that report from "Cruise ship F" whether this person's denial that he had symptoms of Covid was intended to deceive anyone during check-in. The list of possible symptoms is pretty long. He could have told himself it was travel fatigue, an allergy, upset stomach from dinner the night before, and so on.

I think the main issue is that one is not asked if they have "Covid symptoms" they are asked if you have any symptoms at all.  If you have a headache and a runny nose but you think it's just allergies, you still are not telling the truth if you say you don't have any symptoms at all.  At the pier, you will get seen by a medical person who will determine whether of not the symptoms are from Covid.  Often, people do not want to believe they have an illness so they choose to overlook the indicators of disease and end up spreading their cold, flu or strep to others around them.  It's the same with Covid.

 

If you have any symptoms at all, report them at check-in.  You're better off on land if you come down with Covid illness than on that ship.

[CruiserBruce]

36 minutes ago, SonuvaBeach said:

On the Equinox in September, the ship's Captain and the Cruise Director addressed the question of  Covid cases on Celebrity Cruises. They claimed that, at that time, Celebrity ships had entertained over 500,00 passengers so far in 2021 and had only had 150 positive cases of Covid on their ships. That would be a VERY small percentile.

50,000? Certainly not 500,000.

[mcrcruiser]

This is all so confusing .Does this really mean that we are not safe   even being vaccinated ,wear masks  KN-95 types & social distance  ? what about being outdoors by the pool areas with out masks ie  .Seems to us   that we must consider future cruises as doubtful   & we even booked into Dec 2022 & Jan & April 2023   .Also seems no matter what  vaccines are given there will now always be a element of getting sick   until or if this virus is put down in the world .We really hate this virus

[SonuvaBeach]

2 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

50,000? Certainly not 500,000.

I am just telling you what they said..they said 500,000.

Edited October 27, 2021 by SonuvaBeach

[cbr663]

2 hours ago, SonuvaBeach said:

On the Equinox in September, the ship's Captain and the Cruise Director addressed the question of  Covid cases on Celebrity Cruises. They claimed that, at that time, Celebrity ships had entertained over 500,00 passengers so far in 2021 and had only had 150 positive cases of Covid on their ships. That would be a VERY small percentile.

 

For me, that is a useless number.  

 

I want to know what the cases per voyage is.  For me, there is a difference between 1 case on 150 voyages, 3 cases on 50 voyages, 10 cases on 15 voyages or 30 cases on 5 voyages.

[SonuvaBeach]

56 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

 

For me, that is a useless number.  

 

I want to know what the cases per voyage is.  For me, there is a difference between 1 case on 150 voyages, 3 cases on 50 voyages, 10 cases on 15 voyages or 30 cases on 5 voyages.

Okay....

[nocl]

4 hours ago, SonuvaBeach said:

On the Equinox in September, the ship's Captain and the Cruise Director addressed the question of  Covid cases on Celebrity Cruises. They claimed that, at that time, Celebrity ships had entertained over 500,00 passengers so far in 2021 and had only had 150 positive cases of Covid on their ships. That would be a VERY small percentile.

of course most of were from cruises outside of the US, such as the very short round trips with no ports such as the ship out of Singapore.  That was one of the first to start up. Very few cases there and that ship alone has probably done in excess of 50,000 by itself so a atleast a 10th from a pretty safe port.

 

Many of the others are also on 7 day or less. Not much time to incubate and spread on short cruises and a lot of cruises have been short.  Unless one develops symptoms on board or need a test to travel most passenger cases would not be caught if they got by the pre cruise test.

 

Crew on the other hand are tested weekly and I expect would represent the majority. 

 

It will be interesting to see as more longer cruises start occurring.

Edited October 27, 2021 by nocl

[OlsSalt]

4 hours ago, SonuvaBeach said:

On the Equinox in September, the ship's Captain and the Cruise Director addressed the question of  Covid cases on Celebrity Cruises. They claimed that, at that time, Celebrity ships had entertained over 500,00 passengers so far in 2021 and had only had 150 positive cases of Covid on their ships. That would be a VERY small percentile.

 

 

Using your figures, that would be 0.0003% - "case" incidence, which tell nothing about degree of symptoms or even if asymptomatic but merely a test result, of dubious accuracy.  A very murky situation.

 

Agree,  reported half a million passengers might well be a misstatement. So that would drop the "case" incident it town to 0.003% . Now let's see if we can drill down the status of "cases"- beyond a mere test result. 

[CruiserBruce]

2 hours ago, SonuvaBeach said:

I am just telling you what they said..they said 500,000.

That would be 166 cruises at 3000 people per cruise. I don't know any cruise line that has sailed 166 cruises this year, or at that capacity. They would have to count the crew to even start to see 3000 people on a cruise ship. But that doesn't get them to 166 cruises.