Next Week's Caribbean Cruising Could Be Messy

[Colorado Buffalo]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

 

May 24th -29th especially looks like problems for Western Caribbean itineraries, however if this tracks further east the messier things get. 

 

What would happen to sailings in theses areas? 

[ReneeFLL]

The itinerary would change to avoid it if necessary.

[OCSC Mike]

23 minutes ago, Colorado Buffalo said:

What would happen to sailings in theses areas? 

 

They would get re-routed to avoid the storm.

[orville99]

38 minutes ago, Colorado Buffalo said:

What would happen to sailings in theses areas? 

Liquid sunshine. You'd get wet, but your cruise would likely not be affected otherwise. These rain events happen all year long in the Caribbean.

[island lady]

Safer to be on a large ship that can move your living quarters away from the storm...then being a sitting duck at home in front of a hurricane coming my way.  😉 

[smplybcause]

It's called hurricane season. Nothing new. I've only ever seen cruises get canceled if the home ports are closed - and that's only happened once in recent times. 

[Colorado Buffalo]

I'm thinking the eastern Caribbean could be a busy place in that timespan.  

[LeeW]

Models are designed to mimic behaviors that the designers want.  Using them for actual predictions is risky, but people forget quickly when they are wrong.  The hurricane models are designed to predict tracks of an active storm a few days ahead.  Not very good at predicting if a storm will form, especially more than a week away.

[OCSC Mike]

1 minute ago, LeeW said:

Models are designed to mimic behaviors that the designers want.  Using them for actual predictions is risky, but people forget quickly when they are wrong.  The hurricane models are designed to predict tracks of an active storm a few days ahead.  Not very good at predicting if a storm will form, especially more than a week away.

 

The models don't do a good job predicting thunderstorms here within 24 hours, lol, let alone bigger storms a week away.

[leaveitallbehind]

1 hour ago, smplybcause said:

It's called hurricane season. Nothing new. I've only ever seen cruises get canceled if the home ports are closed - and that's only happened once in recent times. 

Actually the hurricane season is June 1- November 30, so just a bit early for that. 🙂 But your point is of course correct.  If at sea, the ships will just adjust their itinerary as mentioned and avoid the storms as much as possible.  This, however, just looks like a rain event - not likely there will be any changes to itineraries.

Edited May 17, 2022 by leaveitallbehind

[twangster]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN

[island lady]

We are celebrating our 26th anniversary out in the Carib on June 1st on Harmony....official start of hurricane season...but our "local storm" is quite mild between us.   🥰

[firefly333]

Lol my 4th leg on grandeur starts tomorrow and already people are worried about rain in ports and looking. 3 legs of perfect sunshine and now the 4th people say might have some rain. I hope it misses us for their sakes. People have looked forward to this for a while. 

 

We will know soon as the forecast firms up. 

[smokeybandit]

Still way too early to be projecting models into forecasts, especially at this point in the calendar.

 

Monitor this thread. There's been 2 posts in the last 12 hours. If there was something to this (at this point in time) there'd be  a ton of discussion

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56704-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-6525351

Edited May 17, 2022 by smokeybandit

[xtremegk]

A 970 mb hurricane (Cat 5) hitting the Gulf coast in May. That'd be something.

[Blauelini]

16 minutes ago, xtremegk said:

A 970 mb hurricane (Cat 5) hitting the Gulf coast in May. That'd be something.

The GFS model is drunk, ignore. 

[firefly333]

30 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Still way too early to be projecting models into forecasts, especially at this point in the calendar.

 

Monitor this thread. There's been 2 posts in the last 12 hours. If there was something to this (at this point in time) there'd be  a ton of discussion

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56704-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-6525351

Even rain is a disappointment if it's your day in port. 

[smokeybandit]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

Even rain is a disappointment if it's your day in port. 

Rain in port means your ship docked in port, so the weather can't be that bad.

[Oceansaway17]

don't worry the RCI weatherman will take good care and help the ship make plans.

[PTC DAWG]

1 hour ago, twangster said:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN

Agree, I have no idea what the OP was trying to say. A little rain never hurt anyone. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by PTC DAWG

[CruisinNole]

1 hour ago, leaveitallbehind said:

Actually the hurricane season is June 1- November 30, so just a bit early for that. 🙂 But your point is of course correct.  If at sea, the ships will just adjust their itinerary as mentioned and avoid the storms as much as possible.  This, however, just looks like a rain event - not likely there will be any changes to itineraries.

I live in south Florida and our local news meteorologist reported last night that a change to hurricane season may be made to have it begin in May. We've learned to not get too hung up on that June 1st start date.

[Diver2014]

Here we go again.......just like every year.  Hurricane season gives the weather guys something to talk about.  No one else seems to care.  Ships find someplace to go.  We're sailing on June 5 and I wouldn't give the weather a second thought.  Now maybe the end of September might be a different story which is why we don't sail during that time.

[ssb]

I would rather be on a cruise ship in the rain

than at home in the rain ..

[twangster]

Breaking news - it will rain in Alaska this week and get a bit messy.  

 

In other news, rain is also expected elsewhere.  

[orville99]

1 hour ago, CruisinNole said:

I live in south Florida and our local news meteorologist reported last night that a change to hurricane season may be made to have it begin in May. We've learned to not get too hung up on that June 1st start date.

What they call it and when they start it is relative. The reality is that there have been Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms in every month of the year. It just gets more frisky between June and December.