Hurricane chances/cruise effects

[Biker19]

Like the hurricane season, isn't it a bit early for these types of threads?

[time4u2go]

Probably referring to tropicaltidbits.com that James Van Fleet (RCI’s chief meteorologist) shared. It’s the GFS model and, yes, up until today it showed a tropical depression coming up through the western Caribbean. Latest model shows it weaker but still slinging precipitation throughout the islands. Also an increase in wave height. Keep in mind this is mostly in the Western Caribbean...and our itinerary is Eastern.

 

I’m on the same cruise and I’m not worried about it. [emoji6]

 

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Isn't he the same guy that thought some magical portal would open during Harvey that would allow Royal's ship to dock in Galveston?

[kenrad]

Eh, using the GFS. Good luck with that one on out of season tropical development. At least it's better than the Canadian.

[VillaHappy]

I've lived right on the gulf coast for over 30 years so I'm well aware of how hurricane season works. Tropical weather doesn't have to start on the African coast to be a threat. What I wasn't familiar with is how cruises avoid the weather when possible and what determined cancellation. The prediction I saw for the coming weather was just that. However, that is what prompted this post so I could be as prepared as possible cruise protocols-wise. Thank you to those who actually answered the question.

 

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And thanks for your advice to not book a cruise during hurricane season. Not helpful at all!

[Biker19]

Isn't he the same guy that thought some magical portal would open during Harvey that would allow Royal's ship to dock in Galveston?

 

 

 

Yes.

[MyNameIsGermy]

We live Orlando and this is complete nonsense; a "very real possibility", based on what? Do you have a time machine? Been through many of these living in Miami (Andrew) and 2004/2017 here. You have little to nothing to worry about in May...

 

Before you rudely dismiss another community member, maybe they saw the same model that we saw earlier in the week showing the potential formation of a TD/TS in the Gulf. I've attached a screenshot for you.

 

In the future, it might be more helpful to let them know that you're a Floridian (as am I) and that these things rarely turn out to be much of anything. That might be more constructive than your snippy and dismissive response.

 

To the OP: Weather in Florida tends to change quite a bit. I wouldn't worry about it too much... plan on having a great time on board and if inclement weather is present, trust that the Captain will do everything they can to avoid it.

 

[Bkchero]

Exactly. 20+ foot waves out at sea makes for a bumpy ride, those waves docked could mean half your boat falls over into land. *

 

 

*ok honestly don't know ships that big, but hurricanes have tossed 100ft boats pretty far from sea if bad enough.

 

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What I was thinking of was the possibility of mooring lines snapping and a ship drifting in the port/harbor where it can potentially bang into anything and everything indiscriminately, thus causing lots of damage. Plus when at sea a ship can steer away from the storm.

[Fancypants!]

So this popped up today...40% chance of a Tropical Storm in the gulf this week. Let’s hope they are wrong.

 

https://usat.ly/2rDjbUa

 

 

 

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[Milwaukee Eight]

So this popped up today...40% chance of a Tropical Storm in the gulf this week. Let’s hope they are wrong.

 

https://usat.ly/2rDjbUa

 

 

 

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And a 60% chance of nothing. It says Tropical or Sub Tropical, not a Hurricane. I wouldn’t be too concerned that either of these two storms where to form in the Gulf, it would have much of an impact to sailings anywhere in the Region.

 

 

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[lbjen]

Isn't he the same guy that thought some magical portal would open during Harvey that would allow Royal's ship to dock in Galveston?

 

Haha exactly what I was thinking!

 

They were putting out civil alerts here in Houston to tell people to get on their roofs to be rescued by helicopter and JVF is all ‘the port will be open and we’ll be sailing’.

[BirdTravels]

So, we are on Oasis out of Port Canaveral for eastern Caribbean on 5/20-5/27. There is a very real possibility there will be a tropical storm/hurricane coming through the area 5/22-25. At what point does the cruise line make the call to cancel?

Cruises almost never, ever cancel. Last year when all of the ports were closed due to hurricanes was the first time we have ever seen mass cancellation of cruises.

 

We were on the Anthem last September out of Cape Liberty. Two days before our cruise, we got an email saying that we weren't going to Bermuda, but headed north to Halifax. At that point, the cruise line owed us absolutely nothing. In fact, we made more port calls going north than going to Bermuda. But, RCCL did something very generous and provided is with 50% of our our fare as OBC. We have been on several reroutes, and never were compensated that well.

[Bob Bob]

Last Sept we sailed out of Miami just after the Storms went though & sailed but rumor had it due to airport issues that Carnival let some people rebook for another cruise later in time.

 

Are ports changed 3 time due to the storm that went though & the one building off shore. Had no issues with rain or high seas.

[.manu.]

Our Hurricane cruise (Adventure out of San Juan) last year was scheduled on September 23rd. On September 15th we got notice that they will alter the itinerary from St. Thomas to Bonaire due to Hurricane Irma. On September 21st they informed us that it will be a 3-night cruise from 27.-30. September. And on September 24th they cancelled the cruise finally.

 

They will wait quite long to make any decisions. The weather is unpredictable, and they hope that the cruise can depart as planned. We left home without knowing if we would go on a cruise or not.

 

We are on Oasis the week after you. Arriving in Florida this Saturday. So, I’m watching the weather news too…

[yuvraj]

This is what I have learnt from 30 yrs of cruising ...

 

Cruises rarely cancel. It has to be something really major which affects embarkation port or safety at sea.

 

Captain will take the initiative if you are already on board the ship to avoid the storm and hurricane. Even if it means changing the itinerary. I believe this is done more for safety reasons than for the comfort of passengers.

 

If one or ports are affected by a major storm then the port stops may be cancelled. You might go to an alternative port or spend extra days at sea. One of the factors under consideration is whether it is safe to dock.

 

You can get caught up in a storm and find that on majority of the days the sea is rough, it is raining all the time and it is too windy to go outside. I have come to accept that it is chance you have to take when you go on a cruise. No guarantees of good weather.

 

I don't believe it is a case of standard protocols which are followed. I believe it is mainly in the hands of the captain to make the right judgements.

[Grandma Dazzles]

This is what I have learnt from 30 yrs of cruising ...

 

Cruises rarely cancel. It has to be something really major which affects embarkation port or safety at sea.

 

Captain will take the initiative if you are already on board the ship to avoid the storm and hurricane. Even if it means changing the itinerary. I believe this is done more for safety reasons than for the comfort of passengers.

 

If one or ports are affected by a major storm then the port stops may be cancelled. You might go to an alternative port or spend extra days at sea. One of the factors under consideration is whether it is safe to dock.

 

You can get caught up in a storm and find that on majority of the days the sea is rough, it is raining all the time and it is too windy to go outside. I have come to accept that it is chance you have to take when you go on a cruise. No guarantees of good weather.

 

I don't believe it is a case of standard protocols which are followed. I believe it is mainly in the hands of the captain to make the right judgements.

 

Another long-time cruiser and totally agree with the above post.

 

Many years ago took our kids on an early spring cruise. Rained and choppy seas every day. Captain kept saying he was trying - tomorrow would be better! Said they were trying to find new ports and routes.

 

Never happened! Very wet the whole week! Gift shops ran out of sweatshirts and people were taking comforters and blankets from their beds up on deck to relax with. Not to mention a lot of seasick passengers.

 

Too many people assume a cruise means beaches and sun - usually does - but rain does happen, plus cold weather and rough seas. No guarantees.

[Homosassa]

So, we are on Oasis out of Port Canaveral for eastern Caribbean on 5/20-5/27. There is a very real possibility there will be a tropical storm/hurricane coming through the area 5/22-25. At what point does the cruise line make the call to cancel?

 

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We have a strong low that is sitting off our gulf coast. It has been bring lines of heavy rains and thunderstorms across the state since Mother's Day and is predicted to stay in place until the beginning of next week.

 

I hope that you are flying in a day early as lines of thunderstorms typical will cause a cascade effort across the state at the airports as they are temporarily closed due to lighting strikes close to runaways.. This results in diverted flights, flight delays and flight cancellations.

[Straughn]

This is what I have learnt from 30 yrs of cruising ...

 

Cruises rarely cancel. It has to be something really major which affects embarkation port or safety at sea.

 

Captain will take the initiative if you are already on board the ship to avoid the storm and hurricane. Even if it means changing the itinerary. I believe this is done more for safety reasons than for the comfort of passengers.

 

If one or ports are affected by a major storm then the port stops may be cancelled. You might go to an alternative port or spend extra days at sea. One of the factors under consideration is whether it is safe to dock.

 

You can get caught up in a storm and find that on majority of the days the sea is rough, it is raining all the time and it is too windy to go outside. I have come to accept that it is chance you have to take when you go on a cruise. No guarantees of good weather.

 

I don't believe it is a case of standard protocols which are followed. I believe it is mainly in the hands of the captain to make the right judgements.

 

 

This is absolutely accurate. In addition, it is far better for the ships to be out at sea than in port if a direct hurricane hit is expected. Years ago, we were to sail out of Baltimore for a nine night cruise. The Port of Baltimore and the Chesapeake Bay were not in the storm’s path. However, the cruise before us gained a day and we lost one, because of the storm going up the coast. The ship stayed out to sea until the storm had cleared the mouth of the Bay and they could safely enter. We were notified of the change in the schedule about 24 hours before we were to sail.

 

Last September, we were on Equinox during Hurricane Irma. We lost three Eastern Caribbean ports, gained two Southern Caribbean ports and a sea day. They took us so far south, that all we could say was “Hurricane, what hurricane?”

Edited May 15, 2018 by Straughn

[waterbug123]

I'd like to point out that, technically, the hurricane season does not begin until June 1. Even with that, the real action doesn't usually show up until late August into September.

 

Greater chance in Aug-Sept, yes, but as they say, it only takes 1. And it is not unheard of for storms to form outside of the "official" hurricane season. A couple of years ago there was one in January.

 

 

You're not dreaming, I saw a couple people on flhurricane talking about the GFS modeling something around Tampa on the 25th, but the consensus was "nope" .

(

 

I live on the coast in SC and local news channels thrive on instilling hurricane angst. You can bet money that in the days leading up to June 1, they will all have air some story along the lines of how to be prepared for hurricane season, the "experts" predictions for the upcoming season, etc. Often they'll lead into these with teasers that say something like, "are we in for a tropical storm next week? tune in tonight at 6" which gets everyone wondering and of course, gets folks "tuning in" to find out no, there is no real chance of a storm next week, they are just hyping the upcoming season for ratings purposes. Even when a storm has made a clear change in course and there is virtually no risk to us, they will continue to talk about the chance, however slight, that it could turn again, the possibility of future storms, hurricane preparedness in general, local officials' plans for evacuation etc.... anything to keep the subject of hurricanes in the forefront and keep people watching the news.

[mafig]

Meg, we live in SW Florida and know all about the weather hyping.

 

Our local news channel used to have a guy who retired to New England, but was brought in whenever there was a threat. He always said, "find the place where they say the storm will hit 5 days from now. Go there. It'lll never hit that place."

[Havingfun2010]

I'd like to point out that, technically, the hurricane season does not begin until June 1. Even with that, the real action doesn't usually show up until late August into September.

 

I would like to point out "Christmas Season" starts on Black Friday, but 2 months before, you see decorations go up in stores. Same for Hurricanes. No one told the hurricane that it wasn't the season for it, but they do happen. Now, living in Florida, there is a disturbance that is being watched, which has nothing to do with the coast of Africa, because they can form in the Gulf, and this disturbance, is currently not expected to form into a named storm. This is what the poster saw. Also, Sunny Florida is not very Sunny this week.

[tonyweir]

So, we are on Oasis out of Port Canaveral for eastern Caribbean on 5/20-5/27. There is a very real possibility there will be a tropical storm/hurricane coming through the area 5/22-25. At what point does the cruise line make the call to cancel?

 

We were on Liberty in July 2016, Hurricane Earl was forecasted to hit Belize the same day we were scheduled to arrive. The captain made a decision to head East instead so we went to the Bahamas.

 

We ended up losing one port and gaining one sea day.

 

It turned out to be an awesome cruise with absolutely perfect weather and a great time. They won't put you In harm's way and will still make sure you have a great time!

[CP3o]

Omg, too funny. Can’t really look that far out at all. Two days before last hurricane hit FL it was headed right to our house, middle line dead on, people gassing up and leaving. Shifted west and Cuba mountains left us with strong winds. If nervous now never book during Hurricane season but May should be very safe, maybe rain.

 

 

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[Straughn]

Greater chance in Aug-Sept, yes, but as they say, it only takes 1. And it is not unheard of for storms to form outside of the "official" hurricane season. A couple of years ago there was one in January.

 

 

 

 

I live on the coast in SC and local news channels thrive on instilling hurricane angst. You can bet money that in the days leading up to June 1, they will all have air some story along the lines of how to be prepared for hurricane season, the "experts" predictions for the upcoming season, etc. Often they'll lead into these with teasers that say something like, "are we in for a tropical storm next week? tune in tonight at 6" which gets everyone wondering and of course, gets folks "tuning in" to find out no, there is no real chance of a storm next week, they are just hyping the upcoming season for ratings purposes. Even when a storm has made a clear change in course and there is virtually no risk to us, they will continue to talk about the chance, however slight, that it could turn again, the possibility of future storms, hurricane preparedness in general, local officials' plans for evacuation etc.... anything to keep the subject of hurricanes in the forefront and keep people watching the news.

 

 

They do the same thing with snowstorms. We used to live in Northern Virgina. The hype stared about a week ahead of time. Every weather person had dire predictions. Schools announced, the night before, that they would be closed in anticipation of a blizzard, grocery stores and home improvement stores had many empty shelves. After all that, we got, maybe, an inch.

 

Weather forecasting, the only job where you can be wrong 90% of the time and still keep your job.

[davy jones]

The historical data should ease your concerns.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori10

[molly361]

I kind of liked last year's hurricane cruise season. Our 7 days Oasis sailing turned into a 4 day one and all we paid were taxes and port fees. Got 50% back as refundable OBC and 50% in a future cruise certificate.

 

We are driving distance to PC

 

AND the ship only had around 2500 passengers out of a possible 6000 It was VERY nice