Coronavirus

[HappyInVan]

 

Deleted

Edited February 15, 2020 by HappyInVan

[CruisinCrow]

The Diamond Princess numbers are up to 285 now, according to the map. 😷😲

[nikkiw60]

From the Guardian.

[nikkiw60]

Owner and his dog in Beijing, this is from a Chinese newspaper.

[BermudaBound2014]

I fear the Westerdam situation will be made a movie one day. Let me see if I can recap:

 

1. Westerdam made a stop Hong Kong late January. Because of this, they were refused entry to Vietnam, Japan, Guam (few others)

2. The cruise ended up being an extended cruise to no where as no countries would allow debarkation. 

3.During this cruise to no-where time, there was NO quarantine on the ship. Everyone went about their business as usual. 

4. No one reported any sickness on Westerdam

5. Eventually, Cambodia accepted the Westerdam passengers. They were bused to near airport where Malaysia Air was chartered to transport them to Malaysia to get on connecting flights home.

6. A passenger left Westerdam, boarded the bus, boarded the plane to Malaysia and THEN tested positive. Meaning, it is likely she was positive during her time on WEsterdam without quarantine.

7. Malaysia air immediately halted all charters of passengers leaving 5-6 busloads of Westerdam guests stranded in Cambodia airport.

8. HAL moved the passengers in the Cambodia airport to a hotel  where they could spend the night while waiting for confirmation that the sick lady in #6 was in fact NCoV.

9. The lady in #6 test has been confirmed. She does have NCov

10. Those in the hotel in Cambodia are being asked to remain in their rooms until they can be tested.

 

In the meantime, a few hundred guests remain on the Westerdam (didn't have time to remove them before the sick patient stopped the debarkation process). Those first off Westerdam were able to make their connections out of Malaysia. Some are in the Netherlands. (and who knows where else). Some passengers are stuck in Malaysia. Some in Cambodia, and some still on the ship.

 

In theory, everyone on the ship has been exposed. 

 

Edited February 16, 2020 by BermudaBound2014

[sidari]

5 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I fear the Westerdam situation will be made a movie one day. Let me see if I can recap:

 

1. Westerdam made a stop Hong Kong late January. Because of this, they were refused entry to Vietnam, Japan, Guam (few others)

2. The cruise ended up being an extended cruise to no where as no countries would allow debarkation. 

3.During this cruise to no-where time, there was NO quarantine on the ship. Everyone went about their business as usual. 

4. No one reported any sickness on Westerdam

5. Eventually, Cambodia accepted the Westerdam passengers. They were bused to near airport where Malaysia Air was chartered to transport them to Malaysia to get on connecting flights home.

6. A passenger left Westerdam, boarded the bus, boarded the plane to Malaysia and THEN tested positive. Meaning, it is likely she was positive during her time on WEsterdam without quarantine.

7. Malaysia air immediately halted all charters of passengers leaving 5-6 busloads of Westerdam guests stranded in Cambodia airport.

8. HAL moved the passengers in the Cambodia airport to a hotel  where they could spend the night while waiting for confirmation that the sick lady in #6 was in fact NCoV.

9. The lady in #6 test has been confirmed. She does have NCov

10. Those in the hotel in Cambodia are being asked to remain in their rooms until they can be tested.

 

In the meantime, a few hundred guests remain on the Westerdam (didn't have time to remove them before the sick patient stopped the debarkation process). Those first off Westerdam were able to make their connections out of Malaysia. Some are in the Netherlands. (and who knows where else). Some passengers are stuck in Malaysia. Some in Cambodia, and some still on the ship.

 

In theory, everyone on the ship has been exposed. 

 

BB ... Along with anyone else who has come into contact with all those who left the ship!

[HappyInVan]

8 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

In theory, everyone on the ship has been exposed. 

 

 

AFAIK, respiratory diseases have to expel the bacteria/virus in order to infect new hosts. Therefore, infected persons are not contagious until they show symptoms like sneezing or dripping nose.

 

Here, we need to differentiate between the classic asymptomatic carrier and infected persons who are simply not yet at the symptomatic stage.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptomatic_carrier

 

 

An asymptomatic carrier like Typhoid Mary was healthy, but was contagious. In the old days, she was dangerous because no one would have guessed that she was the source of the contagion.

 

Fortunately, 19th Century science was able to identify her by detective work. She was the common factor.

 

Today, there is some fear in the States that even non-symptomatic respiratory patients may be infectious. At this stage. The evidence is not conclusive.

 

The WHO is still of the opinion that adequate screening and detective work is enough to prevent uncontrollable infection worldwide. Medical testing only for those in close contact with known infected persons. Therefore, they do not favor a blanket ban on travelers.

 

That said, symptoms can range from mild (like a cold) to pneumonia. The problem with COVID 19 is that 80% of the infected show minor symptoms.

 

So, it is possible to fail to identify (using thermal scans and self-reporting) those with mild symptoms. However, they are infectious as long as they expel body fluids and particles.

 

The Westerdam case is a failure of containment. The pax were released (without quarantine) after just 14 days, without a laboratory test for everyone.

 

The single confirmed case was likely self-medicating to suppress flu symptoms. However, she was eventually detected by a thermal scan(?), and confirmed with two laboratory tests.

 

The upside is that if she was able to suppress her symptoms throughout the 14 days, then no one else may be infected.

 

Of course, she would have been detected before disembarkation if a sample was tested at a laboratory. How much would it cost? Does anyone know?

 

Let's assume a cost of $500 per test. A single round of tests for the Westerdam would cost $1.2 million. Poor governments like Cambodia are not willing to spend the money.

 

In the future, cruise companies and their insurance companies need to finance the tests in order to disembark their pax. Don't place the burden on governments like Cambodia, Guam, Fiji etc. Containment will fail.

[Pebbels]

Does anyone know how the quarantine works, are the doors locked automaticcly, or are they just asked to stay in their cabin? Are they forced to do so,  or might one refuse? 

[emmas gran]

59 minutes ago, Pebbels said:

Does anyone know how the quarantine works, are the doors locked automaticcly, or are they just asked to stay in their cabin? Are they forced to do so,  or might one refuse? 

Why would you refuse, it’s like having Norovirus and refusing to stay in your room just go and spread it around.

I believe it’s a matter of trust, but security can monitor the hallways as there are cameras 

Edited February 17, 2020 by emmas gran
Addition

[8420PR]

I wonder if MSC will keep MSC Bellissima in Asia this summer (predominantly China and Japan) or if they will send her back to Europe.  I guess a decision will be made mid-March, but if I was a betting man I would say unlikely she will make it to Asia this year.   

 

 

[emmas gran]

14 minutes ago, 8420PR said:

I wonder if MSC will keep MSC Bellissima in Asia this summer (predominantly China and Japan) or if they will send her back to Europe.  I guess a decision will be made mid-March, but if I was a betting man I would say unlikely she will make it to Asia this year.   

 

 

We are on Bellissima at the moment and being told they do not have a definite answer yet, so they are very much in the dark

[Liviucostin]

15 minutes ago, 8420PR said:

I wonder if MSC will keep MSC Bellissima in Asia this summer (predominantly China and Japan) or if they will send her back to Europe.  I guess a decision will be made mid-March, but if I was a betting man I would say unlikely she will make it to Asia this year.   

 

 

I'm on the repo cruise starting March 21 Dubai to Yokohama. I'm waiting for the news. Hopefully they wont wait until mid March!

[Liviucostin]

1 minute ago, emmas gran said:

We are on Bellissima at the moment and being told they do not have a definite answer yet, so they are very much in the dark

I hope they will have an answer very soon!

[Beardface]

10 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

AFAIK, respiratory diseases have to expel the bacteria/virus in order to infect new hosts. Therefore, infected persons are not contagious until they show symptoms like sneezing or dripping nose.

 

Here, we need to differentiate between the classic asymptomatic carrier and infected persons who are simply not yet at the symptomatic stage.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptomatic_carrier

 

 

An asymptomatic carrier like Typhoid Mary was healthy, but was contagious. In the old days, she was dangerous because no one would have guessed that she was the source of the contagion.

 

Fortunately, 19th Century science was able to identify her by detective work. She was the common factor.

 

Today, there is some fear in the States that even non-symptomatic respiratory patients may be infectious. At this stage. The evidence is not conclusive.

 

The WHO is still of the opinion that adequate screening and detective work is enough to prevent uncontrollable infection worldwide. Medical testing only for those in close contact with known infected persons. Therefore, they do not favor a blanket ban on travelers.

 

That said, symptoms can range from mild (like a cold) to pneumonia. The problem with COVID 19 is that 80% of the infected show minor symptoms.

 

So, it is possible to fail to identify (using thermal scans and self-reporting) those with mild symptoms. However, they are infectious as long as they expel body fluids and particles.

 

The Westerdam case is a failure of containment. The pax were released (without quarantine) after just 14 days, without a laboratory test for everyone.

 

The single confirmed case was likely self-medicating to suppress flu symptoms. However, she was eventually detected by a thermal scan(?), and confirmed with two laboratory tests.

 

The upside is that if she was able to suppress her symptoms throughout the 14 days, then no one else may be infected.

 

Of course, she would have been detected before disembarkation if a sample was tested at a laboratory. How much would it cost? Does anyone know?

 

Let's assume a cost of $500 per test. A single round of tests for the Westerdam would cost $1.2 million. Poor governments like Cambodia are not willing to spend the money.

 

In the future, cruise companies and their insurance companies need to finance the tests in order to disembark their pax. Don't place the burden on governments like Cambodia, Guam, Fiji etc. Containment will fail.

 

Just thinking about it, this has to be correct or else we would have seen infected numbers outside Asia start to balloon last week.  The fact those numbers remained fairly stagnant shows the quarantine measures in place are working to contain spread to within the quarantine.

Edited February 17, 2020 by Beardface

[CruisinCrow]

6 minutes ago, Beardface said:

 

Just thinking about it, this has to be correct or else we would have seen infected numbers outside Asia start to balloon last week.  The fact those numbers remained fairly stagnant shows the quarantine measures in place are working to contain spread to within the quarantine.

 

The map is showing a jump up in cases outside mainland China from 800 to 1300 this morning.  But when you add up the country numbers on the left-hand side, they don't add up to 1300 yet.  And I heard on the news that the number of confirmed passengers is 450, although the map is showing 369.  There seems to be bit of a lag.

 

1300 is still pretty low compared to 70,000 though so I hope you are right!  Regardless, we leave tomorrow on MSC Divina to the Bahamas.  Wish us luck!  I haven't heard any more about Caribbean cruises being affected since Anthem.

Edited February 17, 2020 by CruisinCrow

[yorkshirephil]

3 hours ago, Liviucostin said:

I'm on the repo cruise starting March 21 Dubai to Yokohama. I'm waiting for the news. Hopefully they wont wait until mid March!

We are also on this one, so just a waiting game. Hopefully we will get some news soon and can get on with organising tours etc.

Personally it is not the virus that worries me it is the actions of the various governments and whether we would end up being confined to cabin.

[Liviucostin]

Costa just canceled all cruises in Asia through mid march. They have 4 ships based there. So maybe we will find out soon about Bellissima.

[nikkiw60]

Reply from our TA re 11th April cruise.

[HappyInVan]

So far, only the American woman from the Westerdam has been confirmed. Her husband has pneumonia but has tested negative. From HALrunner's post (1059) ...

 

"This update from HAL an hour ago on FB:

Westerdam Update: Westerdam remains alongside in Sihanoukville, Cambodia, where officials from the Cambodian Health Ministry are on board today to complete testing for COVID-19 on the 255 guests and 747 crew that are awaiting clearance. We anticipate this will take several days and greatly appreciate the thoroughness of all authorities involved in resolving this situation.

Guests at a hotel in Phnom Penh have all completed the COVID-19 screening. Results are being returned when completed, with the first batch of 406 all being negative. Cleared guests may travel home, and arrangements are being made for those guests..."

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2731085-news-on-the-westerdam/page/43/#comments

 

I've monitored this table for two weeks....

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

The number of infected outside China/HK and the Diamond Princess (International Conveyance) is just 400+. I've watched it increase from 300+ last week. Most of the increase from Singapore.

 

Most of the infected were travelers from China/HK and those they were visiting. AFAIK, the number of infected further down the chain are very small, since health authorities and travelers were on alert.

 

 

[SirWolf]

56 minutes ago, nikkiw60 said:

Reply from our TA re 11th April cruise.

Thank you for the information. Would you mind posting this in the Roll Call forum  for the MSC Bellissima March 21st repo cruise ?

Fellow passengers are gathering information.

I am booked on the repo cruise and hoping that MSC will make a reasonable decision by skipping some ports (China, Hong Kong & Taiwan) , for the safety of passengers and crew.

Thank you.

[Beardface]

42 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

So far, only the American woman from the Westerdam has been confirmed. Her husband has pneumonia but has tested negative. From HALrunner's post (1059) ...

 

"This update from HAL an hour ago on FB:

Westerdam Update: Westerdam remains alongside in Sihanoukville, Cambodia, where officials from the Cambodian Health Ministry are on board today to complete testing for COVID-19 on the 255 guests and 747 crew that are awaiting clearance. We anticipate this will take several days and greatly appreciate the thoroughness of all authorities involved in resolving this situation.

Guests at a hotel in Phnom Penh have all completed the COVID-19 screening. Results are being returned when completed, with the first batch of 406 all being negative. Cleared guests may travel home, and arrangements are being made for those guests..."

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2731085-news-on-the-westerdam/page/43/#comments

 

I've monitored this table for two weeks....

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

The number of infected outside China/HK and the Diamond Princess (International Conveyance) is just 400+. I've watched it increase from 300+ last week. Most of the increase from Singapore.

 

Most of the infected were travelers from China/HK and those they were visiting. AFAIK, the number of infected further down the chain are very small, since health authorities and travelers were on alert.

 

 

 

I'm seriously wondering whether this case on the Westerdam is a result of a false-positive.  There have been postings on here that the results of that test aren't exactly the most reliable.  Its curious that her husband had pneumonia but also tested negative, despite her supposedly being infected.

[Markanddonna]

I am on a MSC shop in the Caribbean. While the ship generally seems healthy, there are some passengers with that wet, cruise cough and they seem to be the type who make no effort to contain their germs. I am watching a little kid lick her fingers at the buffet and see that it is relatively easy to spread germs and you need just one superspreader. I am taking a break from cruising for a while after these two weeks. I appreciated the thermal scan upon embarkation and banning specific populations from travel to our ports/country. 

Edited February 17, 2020 by Markanddonna

[aprilF]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

So far, only the American woman from the Westerdam has been confirmed. Her husband has pneumonia but has tested negative. From HALrunner's post (1059) ...

 

"This update from HAL an hour ago on FB:

Westerdam Update: Westerdam remains alongside in Sihanoukville, Cambodia, where officials from the Cambodian Health Ministry are on board today to complete testing for COVID-19 on the 255 guests and 747 crew that are awaiting clearance. We anticipate this will take several days and greatly appreciate the thoroughness of all authorities involved in resolving this situation.

Guests at a hotel in Phnom Penh have all completed the COVID-19 screening. Results are being returned when completed, with the first batch of 406 all being negative. Cleared guests may travel home, and arrangements are being made for those guests..."

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2731085-news-on-the-westerdam/page/43/#comments

 

I've monitored this table for two weeks....

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

The number of infected outside China/HK and the Diamond Princess (International Conveyance) is just 400+. I've watched it increase from 300+ last week. Most of the increase from Singapore.

 

Most of the infected were travelers from China/HK and those they were visiting. AFAIK, the number of infected further down the chain are very small, since health authorities and travelers were on alert.

 

 

That wiki table is interesting, looking at the clinically diagnosed portion.  And I am taking from that there were no clinical diagnoses yesterday, all those are true test positives?

[BermudaBound2014]

Looks like they have renamed 'others' to be Diamnd Princess and it's 454 cases. They added nearly 100 cases just yesterday.

[HappyInVan]

28 minutes ago, aprilF said:

That wiki table is interesting, looking at the clinically diagnosed portion.  And I am taking from that there were no clinical diagnoses yesterday, all those are true test positives?

 

 

The definitive test for COVID 19 is through a genetic testing technique utilizing PCR ...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction

 

I'm not an expert, but it should be pretty reliable. However, it takes many hours for the test to return a result. As a shortcut, a clinical tool (CT scan) is used to detect early pneumonia (the deadly phase of COVID 19). It just takes minutes to complete a digital image. 

 

Therefore, the Chinese government has included the results of clinical screening. It is unclear to me whether the clinical numbers are adjusted for negative laboratory tests. 

 

The infected woman from the Westerdam has a husband who has pneumonia, but has tested negative (so far). There is a theory that COVID 19 can cause pneumonia before laboratory test can show positive. So, the hospital will be testing samples from this patient continually.

 

COVID 19 is a new disease. The scientists will analyze the case histories to understand its tricks and pitfalls.