KnowTheScore Posted February 9, 2020 #201 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Useful thread here that covers all the main cruise lines and lists the changes they are all making to various cruises. It's 4 days old though so some data will now be out of date. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/04/coronavirus-latest-cruise-line-cancellations-and-policy-updates/4657856002/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnowTheScore Posted February 9, 2020 #202 Share Posted February 9, 2020 The Youtube clip below confirms that the Cunard - QM2 is missing Singapore and going to Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toofarfromthesea Posted February 9, 2020 #203 Share Posted February 9, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:45 PM, navybankerteacher said: That 57,000 is the whole year’s toll in a population of 300 million plus. The Corona virus is just over a month old - and the 300 plus deaths were in a population of just over 10 million. It may not spread, and fatalities may not continue to grow - but for a virus which, apparently in the last six weeks, jumped from one species to another, it seems to be thriving — and even if it’s death rate is 1/3 that of the flu - if it’s infection rate turns out to be more than six times that of the flu (not inconceivable - as there seems to be no natural immunity and no vaccine) there will be greater impact. I am not predicting any such thing - but people who take comfort in partial statistics should look at the whole picture. It works the other way, as well - people panicking over partial statistics should look at a more complete picture. No one ever gets to look at the whole picture because we never have the whole picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted February 9, 2020 #204 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said: It works the other way, as well - people panicking over partial statistics should look at a more complete picture. No one ever gets to look at the whole picture because we never have the whole picture. True enough - but at any given point in time, ALL the available data THEN available does give “the whole picture” as it then stands. That picture continually evolves and grows - right now it seems to portray a fairly contagious, previously unknown virus with a troublesome fatality rate. Yes, “only” a few hundred have died of it so far - out of a localized population of millions - hardly worth panicking over - but only a damn fool would ignore a new cause of death which is not yet understood. Taking steps to contain its spread seems to be a rational approach — especially when those steps seem primarily to largely impact recreational, non-essential, travel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnowTheScore Posted February 9, 2020 #205 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I'm reading articles that say the virus has spread over into Korea but they are not widely reporting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilikeanswers Posted February 10, 2020 #206 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, KnowTheScore said: I'm reading articles that say the virus has spread over into Korea but they are not widely reporting it Which Korea? I doubt we would not know if the South had infections. People there are very media savvy, they would be posting things online. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aplmac Posted February 10, 2020 #207 Share Posted February 10, 2020 10 hours ago, ilikeanswers said: Which Korea? I doubt we would not know if the South had infections. People there are very media savvy, they would be posting things online. North Korea shares a land border with China so it's reasonably safe to assume it's N. Korea. And we'll never know how many die, or are infected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilikeanswers Posted February 10, 2020 #208 Share Posted February 10, 2020 49 minutes ago, Aplmac said: North Korea shares a land border with China so it's reasonably safe to assume it's N. Korea. And we'll never know how many die, or are infected I figured that as South Korea has reported a handful of confirmed cases (I think the number was 18 last I heard) so you can't say they are hiding anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chengkp75 Posted February 10, 2020 #209 Share Posted February 10, 2020 This is all supposition. I have seen articles that say, "well, since N. Korea borders China, then statistically, they should have some cases", but are not reporting them. This assumes that N. Korea has it's borders open to China, and that N. Korea has not instituted even more draconian isolation measures than China. But, yes, if there are cases in N. Korea, we will never know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted February 10, 2020 #210 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, ilikeanswers said: I figured that as South Korea has reported a handful of confirmed cases (I think the number was 18 last I heard) so you can't say they are hiding anything. South Korea is a fairly open society - meaning open to travel as well as to reporting news. It does appear that there are some cases there. North Korea is a closed society across the board - there is very little cross-border interaction with mainland China - due in part to China’s reluctance to accept refugees as well as North Korea’s attitude about keeping their population. Finally, there is strong press control, so even if there were cases of infection, reporting would be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnowTheScore Posted February 10, 2020 #211 Share Posted February 10, 2020 This appears to be a link/article that some are discussing in regards to North Korea https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-korea-secret-coronavirus-crisis-182030954.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilikeanswers Posted February 10, 2020 #212 Share Posted February 10, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said: there is very little cross-border interaction with mainland China - due in part to China’s reluctance to accept refugees as well as North Korea’s attitude about keeping their population. Actually the border between North Korea and China is susprisingly porous. In the border towns North Koreans and Chinese they have a sort of zone where they can interact and there is a lot of interaction between the locals. In fact there is a fear of what will happen economically to the North Korean towns with closed borders since they are pretty much dependant on trade with their fellow Chinese. The fact some of these towns are in infection hot zones is why the International community is suspicious of their zero infection rate claim. The reality is North Korea probably has some infections the only question is did they close their borders in time. Edited February 10, 2020 by ilikeanswers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLAHAM Posted February 10, 2020 #213 Share Posted February 10, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/opinion/coronavirus-china-research.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Journey99999 Posted February 10, 2020 #214 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I see another ship is denied entry. That is a LOT of money wasted for a trip. The ship is carrying 4,196 passengers and crew members. All guests will receive a 50% refund and a future cruise credit valued at 50% of their cruise due to the change in schedule. As Princess Cruises grapples with concerns of coronavirus onboard a ship in Japan, another one of its ships, the Caribbean Princess, was forced to turn around due to a norovirus outbreak. At least 299 passengers and 22 crew members onboard the ship operated by California-based Princess Cruise Lines Ltd. have become sick, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Health Ministry of Trinidad & Tobago said in a statement it denied the ship entry as a precautionary measure given the outbreak. Norovirus is a stomach bug that hits about 19 million to 21 million Americans each year, according to the CDC. Symptoms include vomiting, diarrhea and stomach cramping.https://www.yahoo.com/news/princess-cruise-ship-forced-turn-205401767.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnowTheScore Posted February 10, 2020 #215 Share Posted February 10, 2020 (edited) 8 cases of Coronavirus in the UK now. From the Telegraph newspaper: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/10/british-government-would-do-coronavirus-spreads/ "Scientific modelling estimates that the UK “could experience up to 750,000 additional deaths over the course of a pandemic”, say the government’s planning documents. “These figures might be expected to be reduced by the impact of countermeasures, but the effectiveness of such mitigation is not certain”, it adds. Taking account of this, local planners have been set the target of preparing to extend capacity on a “precautionary but reasonably practicable basis”, and aim to cope with a population mortality rate of up to 210,000 to 315,000 additional deaths, possibly over as little as a 15-week period and perhaps half of these over 3 weeks at the height of the outbreak." Edited February 10, 2020 by KnowTheScore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine13020 Posted February 10, 2020 #216 Share Posted February 10, 2020 23 hours ago, navybankerteacher said: True enough - but at any given point in time, ALL the available data THEN available does give “the whole picture” as it then stands. That picture continually evolves and grows - right now it seems to portray a fairly contagious, previously unknown virus with a troublesome fatality rate. Yes, “only” a few hundred have died of it so far - out of a localized population of millions - hardly worth panicking over - but only a damn fool would ignore a new cause of death which is not yet understood. Taking steps to contain its spread seems to be a rational approach — especially when those steps seem primarily to largely impact recreational, non-essential, travel. We will not have the whole picture for a while and I doubt that Chinese government is telling us the whole truth. For instance, why are theY refusing help from US CDC? Why would they be afraid to share info? Fear of negative economic impact? Fear of creating massive panic? somethings seem fishy here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfaaa Posted February 10, 2020 #217 Share Posted February 10, 2020 (edited) Many N Koreans are poor, malnourished and have low resistance to diseases due to ongoing starvation in that country. Their health care system is substandard and inadequate. Being right next door to China, it's only a matter of time for coronavirus to reach N Korea and multiply rapidly under such poor living conditions. So yes, it will happen if not already happening. Edited February 10, 2020 by sfaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aplmac Posted February 11, 2020 #218 Share Posted February 11, 2020 10 hours ago, ilikeanswers said: Actually the border between North Korea and China is suprisingly porous. In fact, there is a fear of what will happen economically to the North Korean towns with closed borders since they are pretty much dependent on trade with their fellow Chinese! The fact some of these towns are in infection hot zones is why the International community is suspicious of their zero infection rate claim. The reality is North Korea probably has some infections - the only question is did they close their borders in time? Luckily the two-mile-wide DMZ De-Militarized Zone between North and South Korea's -should prove to be a fairly decent geo-barrier given that very little crosses that DMZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilikeanswers Posted February 11, 2020 #219 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Aplmac said: Luckily the two-mile-wide DMZ De-Militarized Zone between North and South Korea's -should prove to be a fairly decent geo-barrier given that very little crosses that DMZ Overall South Korea isn't doing to badly with only 27 confirmed, no deaths and 3 recovered. Novel Coronavirus Infection Map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted February 11, 2020 #220 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Aplmac said: Luckily the two-mile-wide DMZ De-Militarized Zone between North and South Korea's -should prove to be a fairly decent geo-barrier given that very little crosses that DMZ Interestingly, as it is largely free of human activity, the Korean Peninsula DMZ has become something of a wildlife preserve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare mom says Posted February 11, 2020 #221 Share Posted February 11, 2020 37 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said: Interestingly, as it is largely free of human activity, the Korean Peninsula DMZ has become something of a wildlife preserve. Well let's hope it isn't teeming with bats and pangolins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilikeanswers Posted February 11, 2020 #222 Share Posted February 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, mom says said: Well let's hope it isn't teeming with bats and pangolins Considering Pangolins are the most trafficked animal in the world the DMZ would probably be the safest place for them😂. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clo Posted February 12, 2020 #223 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/6/2020 at 4:37 AM, Harry Peterson said: No right and wrong answers, because nobody has a crystal ball, but I’m mightily glad my 2020 cruises in Europe have been cancelled. What line(s) and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Peterson Posted February 12, 2020 #224 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 hours ago, clo said: What line(s) and why? P&O - and because this is spreading far faster than I'm comfortable with. Cruise ships are notorious for the transmission of infections (Norovirus being the classic) and it's one of the last places in the world I'd want to be this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clo Posted February 12, 2020 #225 Share Posted February 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said: P&O - and because this is spreading far faster than I'm comfortable with. Cruise ships are notorious for the transmission of infections (Norovirus being the classic) and it's one of the last places in the world I'd want to be this year. So the cruise line has canceled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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