RCL Stock

[Mark_UK]

65.01 USD −0.77 (1.17%)

Closed: 9 Mar, 04:12 GMT-4 · Disclaimer

Pre-market 58.25 −6.76 (10.40%)

 

 

Pre-market price shows -10%.

 

How low will it go?

[xcell]

If we only knew...

 

If it goes to $50 I'd buy but now, I think it might go even lower.

[rimmit]

43 minutes ago, xcell said:

If we only knew...

 

If it goes to $50 I'd buy but now, I think it might go even lower.

No way to know....  but if I was a betting man it would go lower.  I have stated this in multiple stock threads so I apologize if this seems repetitive,  but in the Great Recession it hit $5 despite there being no real basis for it to justify that price.  But when people panic all bets are off.

 

For those looking for a real bargain checkout out Norwegian Air.  Not on the NYSE as been delisted but down to 1.41.  Main concerns here is bankruptcy as there were concerns before corona, and with corona not sure they could survive,  but down from 4.50 a month ago.  If you have a couple grand to lose could win big. Year high was around 26 or so. I personally don’t have the balls to buy that one.
 

The cruise lines are a much safer bet.  Albeit there is no true safe bet in the market.

Edited March 9, 2020 by rimmit

[iWillSailAway]

Well, let’s hope no bankruptcy. 

[Tony O]

8 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Definitely lower.  20% hit stock at $52

Pre market opening price is $58.22

[A&L_Ont]

COVID tests have come back negative for the Regal Princess off of Florida so that might help to keep cruise stocks near the same level today.  I think the stop won’t be as steep.

Edited March 9, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[rimmit]

29 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

COVID tests have come back negative for the Regal Princess off of Florida so that might help to keep cruise stocks near the same level today.  I think the stop won’t be as steep.

That may help some.   Sadly the CDC recs telling people to NOT cruise is not gonna help the situation much.

[PatMunits]

On 3/5/2020 at 11:37 PM, yogimax said:

No panic?

 

On February 19th, about two weeks ago, the DJIA was at 29.348.  Today, it sits at 26,121.  That's over 3000 points in two weeks!  Most individual investors have probably done much worse than the averages.  I'd call that a panic!

As I said. There was no panic on Wall Street last week. Repeatedly triggered circuit breakers, halted stocks, layman neighbours all of sudden starting talking about their lost retirement savings - that's signs of a panic on the market. First there's panic. It's starting. Then there's capitulation. I don't see capitulation yet. It will be marked by numerous people abandoning their fully-paid cruises and swearing off sailing ever again, selling all their funds and switching to GICs below the rate of inflation.

[rimmit]

12 minutes ago, PatMunits said:

As I said. There was no panic on Wall Street last week. Repeatedly triggered circuit breakers, halted stocks, layman neighbours all of sudden starting talking about their lost retirement savings - that's signs of a panic on the market. First there's panic. It's starting. Then there's capitulation. I don't see capitulation yet. It will be marked by numerous people abandoning their fully-paid cruises and swearing off sailing ever again, selling all their funds and switching to GICs below the rate of inflation.

Agree.  Last week Wall Street was just confused given the wild swings.   This is hitting panic mode now.  Last week the average person was kinda paying attention but not really from my observation when I would bring up the market in conversation.  Over the weekend people started becoming concerned about retirement.  

Edited March 9, 2020 by rimmit

[yogimax]

11 hours ago, ticketsunlimited said:

Word of a potential vaccine would definitely do the job. We can only hope

Experts are pretty clear... the earliest a vaccine could be ready is 1 -  1 1/2 years from now.

[rimmit]

Woah.   Down 20 percent.... I can’t remember the last time I saw a stock drop 20 percent in a day

Edited March 9, 2020 by rimmit

[A&L_Ont]

30 minutes ago, rimmit said:

Woah.   Down 20 percent.... I can’t remember the last time I saw a stock drop 20 percent in a day

 

 

And the day is far from over. 😱

[marci22]

4 hours ago, xcell said:

If it goes to $50 I'd buy but now, I think it might go even lower.

Get out your checkbook!

[xcell]

2 minutes ago, marci22 said:

Get out your checkbook!

 

 

LOL -- I just saw.  Now I think it's going to hit lower than $40 -- this fear is going to stick around, especially if more cruiselines get hit -- at present, it seems to be mainly Princess -- haven't heard of any case on NCL or RCCL.

 

 

[A&L_Ont]

7 minutes ago, xcell said:

this fear is going to stick around, especially if more cruiselines get hit -- at present, it seems to be mainly Princess -- haven't heard of any case on NCL or RCCL.

 

Down 22% so far today.  If, or more likely when, it hits RC it will get worse.

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[Bearsfan82]

Down to 48.1 now

[baileymouse]

Oh boy

[A&L_Ont]

I think the realization that this is a true reality is now being acknowledged in NA.

Edited March 9, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[cmukid87]

10 minutes ago, xcell said:

 

 

LOL -- I just saw.  Now I think it's going to hit lower than $40 -- this fear is going to stick around, especially if more cruiselines get hit -- at present, it seems to be mainly Princess -- haven't heard of any case on NCL or RCCL.

 

 

I don't think the stock is a direct correlation to a certain ship having someone infected.  These huge drops in stock are based on secondary factors to the virus.  The CDC telling people to not cruise is a bombshell.  That impacts ALL domestic voyages from the US, not just a certain cruise line.  This is frightening for the cruise lines, their employees, the travel industry, the countries where ships call on and those who love to cruise.

[josh.vincent.180]

$40ish is next support level

Edited March 9, 2020 by josh.vincent.180

[LMaxwell]

15 minutes ago, josh.vincent.180 said:

$40ish is next support level

Not ready to buy at 40.  

 

FCC's allow Royal to still hold on to money, for now.  The next problem is going to be cash flow and future bookings.  If Med season is a washout they are going to have to return a ton of cash. 

[A&L_Ont]

16 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

The next problem is going to be cash flow and future bookings

 

Exactly.  I think this is when cruises prices will drop, especially if the market is stagnant.

[LMaxwell]

Just now, A&L_Ont said:

 

Exactly.  I think this is when cruises prices will drop, especially if the market is stagnant.

Capacity is another issue.  

 

10 years ago RC had total capacity around 90K berths across all brands and sister companies. 

 

Today RC has total capacity of around 145K berths across all brands and sister companies.  Should demand lessen or things like Asian and Med seasons get wiped out Royal could be faced with wet docking some of their capacity.  And a ship is like a horse, it eats every day.  Those ships will still have some crew and staff aboard for maintenance, there is the cost of the maintenance materials, the cost of the docking...and the mortgages don't stop.  There's only so many ports and so much capacity other regions can absorb.  

 

I wouldn't say Doomsday is here for RC by any measure, but the horizon looks tough.  

 

Next up; dividend cuts and debt restructuring.  

[Billy Baltic]

I read that RC has $11.8bn in debt and they have very little cash. How are they going to service that debt? A big chuck of the European business departs from a country which is a no-go area. I don’t hold stock but I’d be concerned for the future of the company. 

[mac_tlc]

12 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

I read that RC has $11.8bn in debt and they have very little cash. How are they going to service that debt? A big chuck of the European business departs from a country which is a no-go area. I don’t hold stock but I’d be concerned for the future of the company. 

According to 2019 YE Balance Sheet, debt is $8.4B, cash on hand is about $250M.

 

mac_tlc