Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[npcl]

1 hour ago, Daniel A said:

I don't think any state can stop flights in or out of the state as airspace is regulated by the federal government only. 

I am pretty sure if the Governor of Hawaii requested it, the Feds would grant it.  Especially since there have already been comments about the potential for transportation inside the US being subject to stoppage, if the outbreak makes it necessary.

 

Also with the exception of Honolulu where the airport is shared use with the military, the others are owned by the state and technically the state could shutdown individual airports.  No open airports, no flights.  The governor could also order the airports quarantined.  No one in or out.  Etc. lots of ways they could shut down air travel in/out of the state.

[HappyInVan]

Is this science fiction? Is this the end of the cruise industry?

 

"... Sixty percent of the British population is just under 40 million people. Even if Britain experiences a low mortality rate from the virus, that would lead to an expected 300,000 deaths. If the mortality rate is higher, such as in Italy, it’s not unthinkable that the number of deaths rises over a million.

While the strategy has its supporters in the scientific community, many have reacted with sheer horror. Anthony Costello, a pediatrician and former World Health Organization director, wrote that it’s not even clear yet that catching the coronavirus will result in immunity. Costello urged the U.K. to change course, asking: “Is it ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of an uncertain future benefit?”

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/boris-johnson-turned-britain-petri-130300274.html

 

 

[Daniel A]

9 hours ago, npcl said:

I am pretty sure if the Governor of Hawaii requested it, the Feds would grant it.  Especially since there have already been comments about the potential for transportation inside the US being subject to stoppage, if the outbreak makes it necessary.

 

Also with the exception of Honolulu where the airport is shared use with the military, the others are owned by the state and technically the state could shutdown individual airports.  No open airports, no flights.  The governor could also order the airports quarantined.  No one in or out.  Etc. lots of ways they could shut down air travel in/out of the state.

You raise some interesting points.  I think the Interstate Commerce Clause of the US Constitution would prohibit any state from closing its borders with any other state or states.  In other words, such a ban would likely be unconstitutional.  As far as state owned airports are concerned, that would also close all air travel between the islands of Hawaii in effect shutting down intrastate air travel.  I would imagine that governor would have a very hard time come time for his re-election.

[VMax1700]

On 3/14/2020 at 1:33 AM, Lovely other said:

Thank you for your help ... not sure why I couldn’t work that out myself tbh but as it currently feels like there is an elephant 🐘 sat on my chest I’ll blame him 😆 

Now to pass the time learning the basics of buying shares online ... 

Don't worry about exchange rates, buy Carnival PLC on London Stock Exchange in pound stg.

Closing price Friday was 1161.00p per share so 100 shares is £1161 + fees (then allow for movement on Monday).

You can't buy the shares directly and you need a bank, stock broker or on line broker to purchase. (look at DeGiro.co.uk).  

Edited March 15, 2020 by VMax1700

[npcl]

5 hours ago, Daniel A said:

You raise some interesting points.  I think the Interstate Commerce Clause of the US Constitution would prohibit any state from closing its borders with any other state or states.  In other words, such a ban would likely be unconstitutional.  As far as state owned airports are concerned, that would also close all air travel between the islands of Hawaii in effect shutting down intrastate air travel.  I would imagine that governor would have a very hard time come time for his re-election.

so someone could try and take the state to court, but such a case would take a while. I suspect the feds would support it if they did, so no case.

 

 

so far the cases in Hawaii are from people flying  in. Talked with some friends of ours on Maui that we are supposed to be visiting soon. They indicate that the attitude towards visitors to the islands is one of pulling in the welcome mats.

 

So action by the Gov to keep the virus out may do more to help in reelection not hurt it.

 

People need to keep in mind this is a lives first, economics second, and vacations way down the list.

 

Hawaii has an a lot of retirees, and limited medical capacity for its population.

[dockman]

4 minutes ago, npcl said:

so someone could try and take the state to court, but such a case would take a while. I suspect the feds would support it if they did, so no case.

 

 

so far the cases in Hawaii are from people flying  in. Talked with some friends of ours on Maui that we are supposed to be visiting soon. They indicate that the attitude towards visitors to the islands is one of pulling in the welcome mats.

 

So action by the Gov to keep the virus out may do more to help in reelection not hurt it.

 

People need to keep in mind this is a lives first, economics second, and vacations way down the list.

 

Hawaii has an a lot of retirees, and limited medical capacity for its population.

The gov of hawaii can NOT run for reelection as he has served the limit of two terms.

[HappyInVan]

5 hours ago, Daniel A said:

 I would imagine that governor would have a very hard time come time for his re-election.

 

I would imagine that the public would be grateful that he is more decisive than other leaders, if the islands are safe relative to the mainland.

[XLVIII]

On 3/13/2020 at 9:09 PM, dockman said:

 

so if NCL did indeed go bankrupt somebody will end up with their ships...i don't think the banks want them so who is most likely candidates to own them?  the chinese?  i still suggest it would be CCL and/or RCCL....NCL for all their faults have managed to fill a lot of ships and their monopoly in hawaii is worth some serious bucks....but it may all be speculation as perhaps they will survive....guess we will find out in six months to a year.

 

Extremely unlikely that once all this is over CCL or RCCL are going to be in any position to take on more debt. Nor would the banks be interested in owning or getting rid of NCL assets at fire sale prices (and who would be in a position to buy anyway?). Most likely debt is reorganized (with or without bankruptcy) and NCL continues to operate as NCL. Shareholders may or may not get wiped out in the process.

[dockman]

1 hour ago, XLVIII said:

 

Extremely unlikely that once all this is over CCL or RCCL are going to be in any position to take on more debt. Nor would the banks be interested in owning or getting rid of NCL assets at fire sale prices (and who would be in a position to buy anyway?). Most likely debt is reorganized (with or without bankruptcy) and NCL continues to operate as NCL. Shareholders may or may not get wiped out in the process.

 

Yep i agree probably would keep operating is most likely scenario.

 

  Seems CCL could sell off some older ships or perhaps even an entire brand if push comes to shove.  If the price is right I imagine that there would be a variety of buyers interested.

 

Nobody knows but I will be amazed if the cruise industry is not back to a growing industry in the not toooo distant future.  Maybe they will invest more in new air filtration systems or come up with some new high tech ways of killing off nasty bugs.  That would sure be nice.

[cruiserchuck]

20 minutes ago, dockman said:

Nobody knows but I will be amazed if the cruise industry is not back to a growing industry in the not toooo distant future.  Maybe they will invest more in new air filtration systems or come up with some new high tech ways of killing off nasty bugs.  That would sure be nice.

 

I agree, assuming the virus dies out soon, and does not become a yearly seasonal occurrence.

 

Some of us would probably cruise more, now that we know the end of the world might be in sight.  🤒

[npcl]

3 hours ago, dockman said:

The gov of hawaii can NOT run for reelection as he has served the limit of two terms.

That is certainly true.

[HappyInVan]

Back on topic.

 

I'm keeping an eye on Boeing. Airline and cruise companies are the first casualties. When a manufacturer gets sold off, it signals capitulation.

 

Currently @$170, the 52-week low is 1/3 of the all-time high. This is a critical technical level. Investors should be defending this level but they're waiting for the light at the end of the tunnel. Fund managers may be forced to sell through this level if there's a lot of fund withdrawals.

 

So, watch Boeing. 
 

[HappyInVan]

Breaking News...

 

"CDC recommends canceling events with 50 or more people for the next eight weeks throughout US"

[JeffElizabeth]

I just voted my Carnival shares.  They are asking stockholders for permission to buyback shares. Currently the Fed is loaning out money at 0%. Maybe CCL will buy back those cheap shares for pennies on the dollar.  

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Currently the Fed is loaning out money at 0%. Maybe CCL will buy back those cheap shares for pennies on the dollar.  

 

Speculative. They should be conserving cash. BTW, the Fed is lending money to the banks at 0%. CCL will be paying a lot more. Only a matter of time before their credit rating is downgraded.

 

 

[npcl]

2 hours ago, JeffElizabeth said:

I just voted my Carnival shares.  They are asking stockholders for permission to buyback shares. Currently the Fed is loaning out money at 0%. Maybe CCL will buy back those cheap shares for pennies on the dollar.  

You are dealing with a proxy statement that was generated prior to the current crisis in preparation for the April 6 Corporate Annual Meeting.  A bit out of date considering their current problems.

 

They certainly won't be hitting their bonus numbers for this year.

[Torquer]

We just bought 100 shares of CCL at $15.74 to get the OBC on future cruises.  Although it is quite possible the share price will sink even lower, I am totally confident that one year from now, the price will be significantly higher than what we paid today.  As a bonus, the dividend yield is outstanding at current share prices.

[JeremyTexas]

I don't think they will be paying dividends again for a long while....

55 minutes ago, Torquer said:

We just bought 100 shares of CCL at $15.74 to get the OBC on future cruises.  Although it is quite possible the share price will sink even lower, I am totally confident that one year from now, the price will be significantly higher than what we paid today.  As a bonus, the dividend yield is outstanding at current share prices.

 

[mcrcruiser]

 Personally , we would not buy any stock  until we see  a definite change in the direction of this virus  because of  possible lack of workers ,lack of high debt on big corporation books from the past low interest rate environments  & lack of cash flows  & decreasing markets & supply lines 

 When to comes to any cruise line stock  , they  could be in the penny stock arena (pink sheets ) should this go on for more than 2 or 3 months 

 Forget about dividends as they must be cut or eliminated for corporations to pay debt  interest rates 

[richwmn]

1 hour ago, JeremyTexas said:

I don't think they will be paying dividends again for a long while....

 

8 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

 Forget about dividends as they must be cut or eliminated for corporations to pay debt  interest rates 

 

Many companies have paid dividends even though they were "cash poor" in order to keep investors happy. If the board of directors feels that the situation is temporary they may continue the dividends. One financial page stated that Carnival Corp has already used some of its credit line.

[rkacruiser]

2 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

When to comes to any cruise line stock  , they  could be in the penny stock arena

 

It's too early to buy most any company's stock, in my opinion.  

 

Penny stock category?  RCL?   Doubtful.  CCL?  Unlikely.  NCLH?  The most likely of the 3 companies, unfortunately.  Have not bought it and am pleased with that decision.  (Please understand my crystal ball has been known to be wrong.)

[npcl]

2 hours ago, richwmn said:

 

 

Many companies have paid dividends even though they were "cash poor" in order to keep investors happy. If the board of directors feels that the situation is temporary they may continue the dividends. One financial page stated that Carnival Corp has already used some of its credit line.

CCL announced today that they were drawing down their 3 billion revolving line of credit.

[rkacruiser]

Unless my memory is incorrect, isn't this the time of March when there are analysts conference calls by CCL about the past Quarter with a look ahead for the year?

 

I keep checking CCL's web site and don't see anything scheduled.  Are they waiting until closer to the Annual Meeting date in early April?

[npcl]

6 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

Unless my memory is incorrect, isn't this the time of March when there are analysts conference calls by CCL about the past Quarter with a look ahead for the year?

 

I keep checking CCL's web site and don't see anything scheduled.  Are they waiting until closer to the Annual Meeting date in early April?

Usually it is late March/early April when the next results come out, 10Q filed and the next quarterly results call.  Last yeat it was April 9. in 2018 it was March 22, in 2017 March 30.  I don't expect them to be in any hurry. Probably will be released just before the annual meeting (if it is held) on April 6.

Edited March 16, 2020 by npcl

[Reagan0712]

CCL closed at $14.57 today.  Debating if I should continue to wait, buy just 50 shares and hope it drops further for the remaining 50, or just go all in.