Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[cruisemom42]

I have never purchased CCL stock but am thinking that I might purchase the 100 shares needed to receive OBC should the price reach a sweet spot for me. In contemplating retirement in a few years, I anticipate more cruises annually on the horizon.

 

I do not have an online trading account. Is it possible to purchase direct from Carnival? I know this can be done for some stocks.  Anything else I need to know in making this purchase?

[*Miss G*]

Just a random thought but, if it hits the sweet spot, it might be a good idea to double up on the amount purchased.  I can see where they may rethink the minimal amount for OBC to help offset current economics.

[Crazy For Cats]

24 minutes ago, *Miss G* said:

Just a random thought but, if it hits the sweet spot, it might be a good idea to double up on the amount purchased.  I can see where they may rethink the minimal amount for OBC to help offset current economics.

I’ve had that thought and over the past year made it to 200 shares.  Now waiting for a nice spot to buy shares.

[lvz2cruz]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

I have never purchased CCL stock but am thinking that I might purchase the 100 shares needed to receive OBC should the price reach a sweet spot for me. In contemplating retirement in a few years, I anticipate more cruises annually on the horizon.

 

I do not have an online trading account. Is it possible to purchase direct from Carnival? I know this can be done for some stocks.  Anything else I need to know in making this purchase?

I set up an  online account with TD Ameritrade easily this week and bought 200 shares—will keep 100 for the OBC and sell the rest when the price goes back up. TD was easy and quick to set up. We had an account with Fidelity when we owned before and to reactivate I had to go into the office where TD lets you do everything online and fund through Ach which is immediate. 

[npcl]

4 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

I have never purchased CCL stock but am thinking that I might purchase the 100 shares needed to receive OBC should the price reach a sweet spot for me. In contemplating retirement in a few years, I anticipate more cruises annually on the horizon.

 

I do not have an online trading account. Is it possible to purchase direct from Carnival? I know this can be done for some stocks.  Anything else I need to know in making this purchase?

Easy enough to set up an online account.  I use both Schwab and Vanguard

[ski ww]

This morning it was at $14.75 a share, don't know how much lower it can go.

[rkacruiser]

9 hours ago, *Miss G* said:

if it hits the sweet spot, it might be a good idea to double up on the amount purchased

 

If one has the "stomach" to do so and is a long term investor, this is a decent idea.  This is what I did in 2008-2009 with my RCL holdings.  I sold my 100 shares as the price dropped, took a loss.  Avoiding the wash sale rules, as the stock began to rise off its low, doubled my share purchase.  Why did I not buy more than 200?  Could have done so.  But, didn't. 

[Lovely other]

I’m no doubt being a bit dense here or just over-tired in my sad enforced isolated world right now,  but can anyone tell me what would be the purchase price of 100 shares at the current price in GBP ? Thought I  Might as well do something positive with the situation but I’ve never bought shares before 

thanks 

[dockman]

If NCL goes bankrupt I suspect that CCL and RCCL will divvy up the carcass and add those ships to their fleet. 

 

Somebody somewhere will loan them  $$ to do it as people will eventually come back to cruising.

 

Remember after 9/11 all the experts oh my people will never want to fly again for years....lasted about six months at most then record numbers of airline seats and passengers.

 

This too will pass.

 

[SedNabokos]

10 minutes ago, Lovely other said:

can anyone tell me what would be the purchase price of 100 shares at the current price in GBP ?

 

The closing price per share (Friday afternoon New York time) was $17.58, though it reached $18.12 in "after hours trading"

 

If the share price is similar next week then 100 shares will cost around USD$1800 which is GBP£1466

 

But the actual exchange rate you get from your bank or broker will be worse, so I would budget £1500-£1550

 

Of course with the announcement that cruises are suspended for 30 days the share price may plummet further, or it may rise (as it did in the after-hours session) now that there's "a plan" - the market isn't rational.

[npcl]

15 minutes ago, dockman said:

If NCL goes bankrupt I suspect that CCL and RCCL will divvy up the carcass and add those ships to their fleet. 

 

Somebody somewhere will loan them  $$ to do it as people will eventually come back to cruising.

 

Remember after 9/11 all the experts oh my people will never want to fly again for years....lasted about six months at most then record numbers of airline seats and passengers.

 

This too will pass.

 

Don't think so.  RCL and CCL will have their own issues. Also it will be concern how fast demand for cruising comes back and how fast.  Why should they pick up NCL ships, when they have plenty of new capacity being built.

 

 

[Lovely other]

38 minutes ago, SedNabokos said:

 

The closing price per share (Friday afternoon New York time) was $17.58, though it reached $18.12 in "after hours trading"

 

If the share price is similar next week then 100 shares will cost around USD$1800 which is GBP£1466

 

But the actual exchange rate you get from your bank or broker will be worse, so I would budget £1500-£1550

 

Of course with the announcement that cruises are suspended for 30 days the share price may plummet further, or it may rise (as it did in the after-hours session) now that there's "a plan" - the market isn't rational.

Thank you for your help ... not sure why I couldn’t work that out myself tbh but as it currently feels like there is an elephant 🐘 sat on my chest I’ll blame him 😆 

Now to pass the time learning the basics of buying shares online ... 

[dockman]

37 minutes ago, npcl said:

Don't think so.  RCL and CCL will have their own issues. Also it will be concern how fast demand for cruising comes back and how fast.  Why should they pick up NCL ships, when they have plenty of new capacity being built.

 

 

because ncl ships would / could be sold off at super bargain prices...

[npcl]

49 minutes ago, dockman said:

because ncl ships would / could be sold off at super bargain prices...

maybe the secondary European lines, but not the US majors. Expect the majors to accelerate retirement of some of their older ships.

 

No need for NCL ships. Might be a market for all of Oceania.

[HappyInVan]

The 30=days suspension will not be enough. It will be renewed for another 30 days for as long as the epidemic rages.

 

It's just an administrative way of closing their bookings in an orderly way. Pax can now sit back and wait for their sailing to be cancelled.

 

IMO, we should look to how the Canadian government is handling it. They have already suspended cruise ships (of more than 500 pax) from our ports till July 1st. It might be possible to salvage part of the summer season.

 

 

[cruisemom42]

2 hours ago, dockman said:

 

Remember after 9/11 all the experts oh my people will never want to fly again for years....lasted about six months at most then record numbers of airline seats and passengers.

 

 

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, air passenger travel did not equal its pre-9/11 peak until July 2004.

 

https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/special_reports_and_issue_briefs/issue_briefs/number_13/entire

[dockman]

11 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, air passenger travel did not equal its pre-9/11 peak until July 2004.

 

https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/special_reports_and_issue_briefs/issue_briefs/number_13/entire

thanks i stand corrected...but if cruises are back to pre virus levels in 3 years i will be a happy ccl stock owner

[dockman]

32 minutes ago, npcl said:

maybe the secondary European lines, but not the US majors. Expect the majors to accelerate retirement of some of their older ships.

 

No need for NCL ships. Might be a market for all of Oceania.

 

so if NCL did indeed go bankrupt somebody will end up with their ships...i don't think the banks want them so who is most likely candidates to own them?  the chinese?  i still suggest it would be CCL and/or RCCL....NCL for all their faults have managed to fill a lot of ships and their monopoly in hawaii is worth some serious bucks....but it may all be speculation as perhaps they will survive....guess we will find out in six months to a year.

[npcl]

2 hours ago, dockman said:

 

so if NCL did indeed go bankrupt somebody will end up with their ships...i don't think the banks want them so who is most likely candidates to own them?  the chinese?  i still suggest it would be CCL and/or RCCL....NCL for all their faults have managed to fill a lot of ships and their monopoly in hawaii is worth some serious bucks....but it may all be speculation as perhaps they will survive....guess we will find out in six months to a year.

There monopoly is Hawaii is worth so much that they are now down to one ship from the original 3 that was planned.  Not worth that much. I suspect the only reason they continue with it is the political price they paid for original approval.

 

The cruise industry took a major hit from Covid-19.  The amount of bad press is large.  The issues many customers have gone through with canceled cruises, getting dropped off is unexpected ports, the realization that ships and URIs do not get along. The comments that cruise ships are petri dishes will stay in people minds for quite a while.

 

Even once the outbreak ends it will take time to get cruise populations back to current levels. There will be concerns for a while if the outbreak has really ended.  There will also be a lot of FCC's to be used up.  The cruise lines are tapping lines of credit as we speak, with existing high levels of debt and cash flow dropping through the floor.  They have new builds scheduled that they are contracted to complete.  At this point the economics of the entire industry in somewhat in doubt.

 

So why would RCL or CCL spend to get in some cases dated NCL ships, when they have debt and occupancy issues of their -own that they will be working through.  If NCL had failed pre-Covid-19 then maybe RCL and CCL might have been interested in ships less than 5 years old.  With the current situation not so much.  After all the NCL ships would needed to be refitted to fit either lines existing brands.  Not worth the cash.  You might get someone in Europe to pick up the ships (since they do buy many of the ships the big 3 sell)

 

On the other had the smaller ships of Oceania. Someone, maybe Azamara might be interested since they play in that segment with very similar ships with a good brand fit.  

[rkacruiser]

18 hours ago, dockman said:

 

so if NCL did indeed go bankrupt somebody will end up with their ships...i don't think the banks want them so who is most likely candidates to own them?  the chinese?  i still suggest it would be CCL and/or RCCL....NCL for all their faults have managed to fill a lot of ships and their monopoly in hawaii is worth some serious bucks....but it may all be speculation as perhaps they will survive....guess we will find out in six months to a year.

 

RCL/CCL buying the NCL ships and them selling/chartering them to European lines or Chinese companies (what about Japan) is an interesting thought.  Doing so with many of these mega sized ships will then reduce RCL/CCL's ability to fill their ships during the European season.  Wouldn't it?  The Chinese cruising market seems to be much slower to develop than was expected.  I think the situation has somewhat improved due to changes in the marketing/selling of the cruises.  Norwegian Joy was designed for that market and that sized ship did not work.

 

Utilizing ships in the Hawaiian market is great.  But some changes are going to need to be made to United States Maritime Laws for foreign flagged vessels for that to happen.  Plus, as guests on a Hawaiian cruise, do we really want to be part of the possible thousands of other cruise guests on a Hawaiian beach?  Honolulu is strained now.  Hilo?  Kona?  Lahaina?  I'm not sure that deploying even US flagged ships (somehow if that could be done) is a world class idea.

[dockman]

Right now numbers to Hawaii are dropping quickly.  Not only from China but Korea and Japan.  In the last few days the arrivals from US mainland and Canada and downunder are also starting to fall and airlines are cutting service.

I just now walked down kalakaua avenue one hour ago and it is noticeably quieter than it was two weeks ago.

 

Hawaii like elsewhere is cancelling all kinds of events.  Thus far as of yesterday there are two confirmed cases yet only 36 people have been tested so no real idea of how many may or may not be infected.  Hoping not many but there are thousands of people arriving everyday from all over the world on flights with limited or no screening.

 

It is still a beautiful place to live and/or visit and I look forward to return to normal asap.

[npcl]

17 minutes ago, dockman said:

Right now numbers to Hawaii are dropping quickly.  Not only from China but Korea and Japan.  In the last few days the arrivals from US mainland and Canada and downunder are also starting to fall and airlines are cutting service.

I just now walked down kalakaua avenue one hour ago and it is noticeably quieter than it was two weeks ago.

 

Hawaii like elsewhere is cancelling all kinds of events.  Thus far as of yesterday there are two confirmed cases yet only 36 people have been tested so no real idea of how many may or may not be infected.  Hoping not many but there are thousands of people arriving everyday from all over the world on flights with limited or no screening.

 

It is still a beautiful place to live and/or visit and I look forward to return to normal asap.

We currently have a trip scheduled to Hawaii in April.  I expect the odds of actually doing the trip to be 50/50.  Would not be surprised if Hawaii stops flights with the mainland in light of the increasing numbers California and Washington.

[dockman]

good luck with your april hawaii trip.  I have the opposite concern as i am supposed to fly to east coast on april 8 and fingers crossed no problems getting flights out...

[npcl]

8 minutes ago, dockman said:

good luck with your april hawaii trip.  I have the opposite concern as i am supposed to fly to east coast on april 8 and fingers crossed no problems getting flights out...

Good luck.  We have all seen just how fast things can change.

[Daniel A]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

 Would not be surprised if Hawaii stops flights with the mainland in light of the increasing numbers California and Washington.

I don't think any state can stop flights in or out of the state as airspace is regulated by the federal government only.