Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[Gregoryfo]

On 3/5/2020 at 2:11 PM, Daniel A said:

If it drops off too much further, they'll probably suspend the Stockholder's OBC and dividends.  So why buy it at that point?

 

Unless my memory is failing me I do not think they suspended the OBC benefit in 2008/09, but the dividend did get cut up pretty good.  They want people to sail so I would think the OBC will be safer than the dividend going forward.  As a stock holder I would want them to cut the dividend temporarily.  Not good business to pay over 7% dividend in a financial environment where 10 year bonds are paying under 1%, and the dividend should be based on earnings and sustainable.  I got to believe the earnings are going to take a hit over the next couple of quarters.    

[Gregoryfo]

4 minutes ago, danah33 said:

Questions from a newbie who had never heard of OBC for stock owners before:

 

1. How much OBC do you get per cruise if you own 100 shares?

2. How do you prove you own the stock so that you get the credit?

3. Can you get double credit by owning 100 shares in your own name and 100 more shares in your spouse's name?

 

Thanks!

Cruise critic did a pretty good article about it a few months back:

https://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=3251

 

This is directly from carnival and how to apply and what documentation is needed:

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

 

You do not get double or any additional benefit for having more than 100 shares.  It is one OBC per cabin so you and your spouse both owning does not help if you cruise together in the same room.  We have 100 shares in each of our name because sometimes she cruises without me and also our kids are teens and if we want to start booking two rooms (one for us and one for our kids) we can book one room in my name and get the OBC and another in her name to get additional OBC.  I do not think it is wise for people to just buy for OBC perks, but it is a nice bonus if you like the stock overall.  

 

If you expand into other cruise companies stock, I am looking at you Royal, just know they play some games to make it harder to get the OBC.  Carnival has been great thus far and will usually only get you if they (not your travel agent but carnival directly) is giving an OBC already.  Hope this helps and happy cruising and investing!    

 

[The Beaver]

17 minutes ago, danah33 said:

Questions from a newbie who had never heard of OBC for stock owners before:

 

1. How much OBC do you get per cruise if you own 100 shares?

2. How do you prove you own the stock so that you get the credit?

3. Can you get double credit by owning 100 shares in your own name and 100 more shares in your spouse's name?

 

Thanks!

 

Hello

 

You will have all the information on this site:

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

 

1. depends on the length of the cruise

2. You will have to fax or mail your proof of ownership 3 weeks prior to your scheduled cruise 

3. The answer is negative 

 

ETA: Oops , someone was quicker than I was :-)

Edited March 7, 2020 by The Beaver
someone else answered first

[Daniel A]

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2020 at 1:34 PM, jacksonx said:

No reason to think it won't drop further. Hold off buying!

 

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2020 at 2:11 PM, Daniel A said:

If it drops off too much further, they'll probably suspend the Stockholder's OBC and dividends.  So why buy it at that point?

 

4 hours ago, Gregoryfo said:

 

Unless my memory is failing me I do not think they suspended the OBC benefit in 2008/09, but the dividend did get cut up pretty good.  They want people to sail so I would think the OBC will be safer than the dividend going forward.  As a stock holder I would want them to cut the dividend temporarily.  Not good business to pay over 7% dividend in a financial environment where 10 year bonds are paying under 1%, and the dividend should be based on earnings and sustainable.  I got to believe the earnings are going to take a hit over the next couple of quarters.    

A fault of CC is that when replying to another reply post without quoting the original post being replied to , the second post ends up being out of context.  My post that you were replying to wasn't a prediction, it was a response to somebody saying wait until the stock is almost without value to buy it.  My point was that if it becomes so undervalued then Carnival would have to do some cutbacks.

[rkacruiser]

6 hours ago, Gregoryfo said:

 

Unless my memory is failing me I do not think they suspended the OBC benefit in 2008/09, but the dividend did get cut up pretty good.  They want people to sail so I would think the OBC will be safer than the dividend going forward.  As a stock holder I would want them to cut the dividend temporarily.  Not good business to pay over 7% dividend in a financial environment where 10 year bonds are paying under 1%, and the dividend should be based on earnings and sustainable.  I got to believe the earnings are going to take a hit over the next couple of quarters.    

 

I agree with your post as well as your memory from 2008/2009.  

[Gregoryfo]

3 hours ago, Daniel A said:

 

 

A fault of CC is that when replying to another reply post without quoting the original post being replied to , the second post ends up being out of context.  My post that you were replying to wasn't a prediction, it was a response to somebody saying wait until the stock is almost without value to buy it.  My point was that if it becomes so undervalued then Carnival would have to do some cutbacks.

I agree with you Daniel I think there may be some cuts until things settle.  What I really wonder about is if any of the large cruise companies is bold enough to go the other way and there will be some consolidation in the industry.  The combination of super low interest rates and depressed market cap could be too much to resist.  Norwegian's market cap is now below $6 billion.  They might be becoming attractive to Carnival, or even MSC buying them and taking them private.    

[VermeulT]

On 3/5/2020 at 2:11 PM, Daniel A said:

If it drops off too much further, they'll probably suspend the Stockholder's OBC and dividends.  So why buy it at that point?

 

The cruise industry is hurting and it going to hurt.  They are already giving people (stockholder or not) OBC just for taking the cruise they already bought.   It's unlikely that they would take away anything from people that will cruise, especially investors.

[Daniel A]

8 hours ago, VermeulT said:

 

The cruise industry is hurting and it going to hurt.  They are already giving people (stockholder or not) OBC just for taking the cruise they already bought.   It's unlikely that they would take away anything from people that will cruise, especially investors.

I like to hear that - I hope you're right about that. 

[Boatdrill]

On 3/7/2020 at 7:08 AM, Gregoryfo said:

 

 

 Carnival has been great thus far and will usually only get you if they (not your travel agent but carnival directly) is giving an OBC already.   

 

Sorry...what does this mean ?  

[VermeulT]

Stock dropped another 15% just after trading started this morning.  I'm sure the taken out of context warning that noone should cruise will only help it drop further.

 

Do we want to place bets on how low it will go?

[S&B]

A questions for the professionals out there even though I know no one can predict what will happen.

 

Will there be a place where CCL will stop and cease all trading for the stock.  Maybe at 20?  I don't know but was wondering for those that might want to wait for it to go lower.  Is there that chance that could happen?   I know anything can happen.  Just picking your brains!!   Thanks to those that have been contributing to this CCL market slide.  I have found it helpful.

 

 

[VermeulT]

7 minutes ago, S&B said:

A questions for the professionals out there even though I know no one can predict what will happen.

 

Will there be a place where CCL will stop and cease all trading for the stock.  Maybe at 20?  I don't know but was wondering for those that might want to wait for it to go lower.  Is there that chance that could happen?   I know anything can happen.  Just picking your brains!!   Thanks to those that have been contributing to this CCL market slide.  I have found it helpful.

 

 

I'm no stock expert but I don't think that can be done.

 

I had set my buy threshold at $20 but now I'm thinking it might go lower.

 

And for anyone that thinks I wish any ill towards CCL, no I do not.  I do hope I can capitalize on this.  The company & the industry will come back - it's all just a matter of time.

 

[kazu]

22 minutes ago, S&B said:

A questions for the professionals out there even though I know no one can predict what will happen.

 

Will there be a place where CCL will stop and cease all trading for the stock.  Maybe at 20?  I don't know but was wondering for those that might want to wait for it to go lower.  Is there that chance that could happen?   I know anything can happen.  Just picking your brains!!   Thanks to those that have been contributing to this CCL market slide.  I have found it helpful.

 

 

 

The stock exchange will halt trading if the overall market drops too much.

 

It has already happened twice today.

 

I’m not sure if a public company has the right to halt trading of just it’s own stock.

[Crazy For Cats]

1 hour ago, VermeulT said:

I'm no stock expert but I don't think that can be done.

 

I had set my buy threshold at $20 but now I'm thinking it might go lower.

 

And for anyone that thinks I wish any ill towards CCL, no I do not.  I do hope I can capitalize on this.  The company & the industry will come back - it's all just a matter of time.

 

I'm with you on this one. I thought that the bottom was found last week for CCL price.  Boy was I wrong.  I'm waiting until I feel comfortable and plan on buying what I can afford.

[HappyInVan]

On 3/5/2020 at 12:11 PM, dockman said:

It would be interesting to review this thread in a couple of years and see how you would have done on CCL stock.

Lots of predictions based on speculation and short term timing.

 

 

Would you but at $20 this week?

[dockman]

12 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 

Would you but at $20 this week?

 

yes and maybe more at $15 next week.

[The Beaver]

2 hours ago, kazu said:

 

The stock exchange will halt trading if the overall market drops too much.

 

It has already happened twice today.

 

I’m not sure if a public company has the right to halt trading of just it’s own stock.

Possible only for these situations:

1. regulatory reasons

2.  significant news that may or could impact the stock price 

3. when there are excess of buy or sell orders for the security involved.

 

What we have been witnessing this morning is based on:

https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-bulletins/investor-alerts-circuitbreakersbulletinhtm.html

 

"

Revised Market-Wide Circuit Breakers – The securities and futures exchanges have procedures for coordinated cross-market trading halts if a severe market price decline reaches levels that may exhaust market liquidity.  These procedures, known as market-wide circuit breakers, may halt trading temporarily or, under extreme circumstances, close the markets before the normal close of the trading session.

Market-wide circuit breakers provide for cross-market trading halts during a severe market decline as measured by a single-day decrease in the S&P 500 Index.  A cross-market trading halt can be triggered at three circuit breaker thresholds—7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2), and 20% (Level 3).  These triggers are set by the markets at point levels that are calculated daily based on the prior day’s closing price of the S&P 500 Index."

 

[rkacruiser]

8 hours ago, VermeulT said:

I had set my buy threshold at $20 but now I'm thinking it might go lower.

 

CCL closed at just under $22 today.  My crystal ball--which has been notably cloudy at times--says "the shoe has yet to drop to hit the floor".  There's going to be some "ups", I think.  I don't think any of the cruise line stocks have yet found the bottom.  

 

I think this statement is correct.  CCL, from a percentage price perspective, has weathered this storm better than NCLH and RCL.    If I am incorrect in what I am thinking, I would really appreciate being corrected!

[VMax1700]

Just as an indicator, CCL.L  (Carnival PLC on London Stock Exchange) is showing +9% this morning.

[richwmn]

CCL pre-market at 9:19

400,475

$ 25.25 (06:08:16 AM)

$ 22.85 (04:21:33 AM)

[Himself]

16 minutes ago, richwmn said:

CCL pre-market at 9:19

400,475

$ 25.25 (06:08:16 AM)

$ 22.85 (04:21:33 AM)

If it goes low enough I might be able to buy some CCL stock.

[HappyInVan]

37 minutes ago, Himself said:

If it goes low enough I might be able to buy some CCL stock.

 How low is low?

[Daniel A]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 How low is low?

Below the limbo pole silly!!!

[sansterre]

I understand price rose yesterday (we are cruising so information sketchy).  Thinking that the Economic Plan in DC is responsible.....but perhaps it is also based on oil $.  

Wondering if it reached it's low point.  Any crystal balls working out there?

 

[SedNabokos]

I took a gamble yesterday and bought my first 100 shares @ $22.15
Primary motivation is the shareholder OBC, which I didn't even realise was a thing until I saw this thread.

 

I figure in the long term either CCL goes bankrupt and I've lost my money, or it'll bounce back to the $50+ range and start paying dividends again - assuming of course they stop dividends this year, which I think is likely but not a given.

 

And in the meantime will hopefully get some of those sweet tax-free OBC "dividends"

 

I'm no expert trader, so I don't know what the risk vs reward is - but I never bet (invest) more than I'm prepared to lose and figured it was a worthwhile punt.

 

When I first saw this thread - and the stock was at $30 - I decided USD$3000 was more than I was willing to spend, but that I would jump in if it got to the low $20s. 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by SedNabokos
share price typo