Curve beginning to flatten ,good news for the cruise industry

[jskinsd]

25 minutes ago, eileeshb said:

There is a long way to go yet.. China hit their peak almost 4 weeks after their start of lockdown and they’re only Starting lifting the restriction in the first province affected now, 2.5months after lockdown started. 
Until everywhere has gotten to zero new cases for a few weeks there’s always a risk of an outbreak reoccurring. There does seem to be some light on the horizon in terms of a possible stopgap vaccine for something else which is reducing infection and death rates. But any covid-19 specific vaccine is still a long way away. 

How do you know China hit there peak?    From what source?

[ziggyuk]

9 minutes ago, jskinsd said:

How do you know China hit there peak?    From what source?

 

The fact you can even ask that question shows you have no grasp of the situation, do research and find your links.

China had a party and lightshow last night to celebrate the reopening of Wuhan.

Edited April 8, 2020 by ziggyuk

[seaman11]

14 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

The fact you can even ask that question shows you have no grasp of the situation, do research and find your links.

China had a party and lightshow last night to celebrate the reopening of Wuhan.

its ok some are not going to sail for a year or till they know there are 0 cases left and a super vaccine cure all .  We will get better deals and perks, I will send clips of me sipping my drink in my speedos soaking in the sun of the tropics  while they are huddled up in their bed with a note from matron. 

[kwokpot]

14 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

its ok some are not going to sail for a year or till they know there are 0 cases left and a super vaccine cure all .  We will get better deals and perks, I will send clips of me sipping my drink in my speedos soaking in the sun of the tropics  while they are huddled up in their bed with a note from matron. 

Do you actually wear speedo type bathing suits? If so I'll let you know my favorite brands!

[ziggyuk]

I will leave you budgie smuggler fans to it.

 

[jaapie]

8 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

I will leave you budgie smuggler fans to it.

 

LMAO (but not sure most in the US will understand your comment)

[ColeThornton]

5 minutes ago, jaapie said:

LMAO (but not sure most in the US will understand your comment)

 

 

Oh, I for one got it alright..wish I hadn't though.  lol

[gmbhardy]

3 hours ago, seaman11 said:

im not going to be taking any vaccine . however no one is saying stop the social distancing and go about as normal.  continue to follow the guidelines as it is working . im simply saying there is light at the end of the tunnel , enough doom and gloom ppl. 

 

You bits of kids don’t know the meaning of rough times . You should have been with me on the Russian convoys. One night it was so cold the flame on my lighter froze.

 

Chances are you won’t be cruising until a vaccine is deloped and my guess is that you won’t be allowed on the ship without proof that you’ve been vaccinated.

[ziggyuk]

19 minutes ago, jaapie said:

LMAO (but not sure most in the US will understand your comment)

 

13 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

Oh, I for one got it alright..wish I hadn't though.  lol

 

Sorry for that.

It started in Australia, we followed in Europe years ago and I assumed everyone called them budgie smugglers now, my bad.

[mynameisvlad]

2 hours ago, Corliss said:

I think the majority of you are way too pessimistic and are in for a bit of a surprise.  As you may remember President Trump was originally looking to begin opening the country up at Easter.  When the original "15 days to slow the curve" was about to end Drs. Fauci and Birx showed him their "models" which projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths with continuing complete mitigation and talked him into extending the shut down for an additional 30 days.

 

I don't think there is any chance he will delay the "opening" (gradual though it may be) again.  Now the "models" show dramatically lower deaths and much earlier peaks in all the states than previously predicted and they are down to 60,000 total deaths nationally (which will likely ALSO be too high.)  Even so called new "hot spots" aren't really hot spots.  Michigan is projected to hit its "peak" tomorrow and the "curve" doesn't "flatten" there: it begins an immediate decline.  They (the model) expect daily death rates to half in the following week.

 

Louisiana, the other supposed "hot spot" reached its projected peak yesterday with a death rate of 70 and like Michigan is expected to half the death rate 10 days later.

 

Earlier today I posted some articles about European countries announced plans to reopen various parts of their economies now.  I think our reopening will begin by the end of the month.

 

This is literally exactly what I meant to detract against by posting my warning, did you read it? 

 

The projections you posted and are talking about explicitly assume a shelter-in-place order until the end of May. Anything earlier than that will cause another spike in cases. Period. Even beyond that, scientists strongly believe that there would be spikes if all restrictions were lifted.

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, Corliss said:

I think the majority of you are way too pessimistic and are in for a bit of a surprise.  As you may remember President Trump was originally looking to begin opening the country up at Easter.  When the original "15 days to slow the curve" was about to end Drs. Fauci and Birx showed him their "models" which projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths with continuing complete mitigation and talked him into extending the shut down for an additional 30 days.

 

I don't think there is any chance he will delay the "opening" (gradual though it may be) again.  Now the "models" show dramatically lower deaths and much earlier peaks in all the states than previously predicted and they are down to 60,000 total deaths nationally (which will likely ALSO be too high.)  Even so called new "hot spots" aren't really hot spots.  Michigan is projected to hit its "peak" tomorrow and the "curve" doesn't "flatten" there: it begins an immediate decline.  They (the model) expect daily death rates to half in the following week.

 

Louisiana, the other supposed "hot spot" reached its projected peak yesterday with a death rate of 70 and like Michigan is expected to half the death rate 10 days later.

 

Earlier today I posted some articles about European countries announced plans to reopen various parts of their economies now.  I think our reopening will begin by the end of the month.

 

There are areas of science that obey clear physical laws and math, for those simulations and predictions are often spot on accurate.

 

For pandemics and biology models are based on many many assumptions and predictions of dates and magnitudes are like weather prediction.   You can with great accuracy and precision say with confidence what will happen tomorrow, but two weeks or two months out, good luck.

 

Lets see where things are in three weeks, there will be places that are far better and some far worse, sadly the virus will still be transmitting around the world and next fall w/o a robust vaccine again requiring both containment and mitigation.

 

I am happy to see the curve is bending but saddened deeply that the same freedom, resolve, and independence that made this country so great ( USA that is ) was totally failed being directed to bend that curve earlier, it clearly was an opportunity squandered!

Edited April 9, 2020 by chipmaster

[seaman11]

28 minutes ago, gmbhardy said:

 

Chances are you won’t be cruising until a vaccine is deloped and my guess is that you won’t be allowed on the ship without proof that you’ve been vaccinated.

i dont think so, the cruise lines are not regulated by the govt to order such a thing. they may have a new health questionnaire and perhaps take temperatures . 

Edited April 9, 2020 by seaman11

[Ms BumbleBee]

I have been stalking my 5/16 Joy inventory and it has stayed basically the same for a month plus and today every category is available (at really inflated prices).  Up to a few weeks ago the Haven was sold out except for a small handful of rooms and now every category is open.  So either they were hiding inventory or there was a mass exodus into FCC in the last few days.

 

I doubt we will know the truth but I am hanging on to get a refund vs FCC

[npcl]

37 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

There are areas of science that obey clear physical laws and math, for those simulations and predictions are often spot on accurate.

 

For pandemics and biology models are based on many many assumptions and predictions of dates and magnitudes are like weather prediction.   You can with great accuracy and precision say with confidence what will happen tomorrow, but two weeks or two months out, good luck.

 

Lets see where things are in three weeks, there will be places that are far better and some far worse, sadly the virus will still be transmitting around the world and next fall w/o a robust vaccine again requiring both containment and mitigation.

 

I am happy to see the curve is bending but saddened deeply that the same freedom, resolve, and independence that made this country so great ( USA that is ) was totally failed being directed to bend that curve earlier, it clearly was an opportunity squandered!

 

The problem comes down to the power to put the controls on rest with each state Governor. The power at the Fed level deals with quarantine upon entry into the US (even there during the Ebola outbreak a few years ago a nurse returning from Africa took the Federal government to court when they tried to quarantine her and lost.  There is supposedly some power to limit interstate movement, but it has never been tested in court.

 

The same thing with public health, the execution capabilities are in the states.  The Feds are pretty much advise (CDC) and HHS, regulatory,  send money and supplies and use the military (an over simplification but basically the scope).

 

Some states moved pretty quickly  California, Oregon, Washington for example and have flattened the curve pretty well.  New York could have moved a bit earlier, but even when they did moved a lot of people said it was too early.  Once they moved they did so aggressively. Others not so much.

Edited April 9, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

33 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

i dont think so, the cruise lines are not regulated by the govt to order such a thing. they may have a new health questionnaire and perhaps take temperatures . 

But the Ports like Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Seattle, etc. can certainly define under what circumstances they will let cruise ships leave and return to their ports.  They certainly have the power to mandate it.

 

[seaman11]

4 hours ago, beerman2 said:

Everybody is getting ahead of themselves with the flattening curve. Our head of Ohio Health Department warns us everyday that if we don't continue to Social distance within 2 weeks there could be a major upswing in Covid-19 cases.

 

Lets not get a false sense of security. As much as we would all like to get to normal , it isn't happening soon. 

 

It will be a gradual a climb back to normalcy.

here check this out,  carnival plans to limit pax on may and june voyages.  see this is what i was thinking, start slow. select cruises. maybe restrict 70 and older im not sure. 

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5259/

[seaman11]

Just now, npcl said:

But the Ports like Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Seattle, etc. can certainly define under what circumstances they will let cruise ships leave and return to their ports.  They certainly have the power to mandate it.

 

why would they not mandate it for airlines then?   we shall see but i highly doubt they will do that.   i dont think they have control over that, they could close a port and deny entry,. that is true. 

[InDaPast]

33 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

here check this out,  carnival plans to limit pax on may and june voyages.  see this is what i was thinking, start slow. select cruises. maybe restrict 70 and older im not sure. 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5259/

 

May & June, eh?.......yea, right....dream on Carney.

[cruisinmeme]

5 hours ago, ray98 said:

Flattening the curve has nothing to do with putting this in the past.  Until it starts dropping all a flat curve means is you have just as many die today as you did yesterday.

 

Absolutely!! I have listened to several YouTube videos by dr. Duc Vuong and he explains it very simply.  Made easy once we see the curve going down all it means is rather than 100,000 new cases a day we only have 90,000 new cases. So it isn’t going away over night.

i do not believe the cruise lines want a repeat of the ships full of dead or sick passengers and no place that will allow them to dock. I’d they start back up in 2 months that will be the case.  No way will this be history by then.

 

[UnorigionalName]

46 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

why would they not mandate it for airlines then?   we shall see but i highly doubt they will do that.   i dont think they have control over that, they could close a port and deny entry,. that is true. 

 

Because airlines you are at most flying with a couple hundred people for at most like 15 hours.  The experience from other epidemics is that you won't actually infect too many people.  So with those number of people, if you are under surveillance mode, once one person who tests positive who was on a flight during their infectious period, it's not that technically difficult to go send people and track down all couple hundred of people on that flight and test them all and see if they have symptoms and try to control the spread.  It may or may not be possible to have flights while having surveillance.  HK, Taiwan, SK, singapore shows it may be possible.

 

Now on a cruise ship if you have even one person sick, with cruises that are many days/weeks long, who you don't find out was sick till after the cruise ends, experience shows that with thousands of pax, you can end up with hundreds infected, and if you want to do containment you will have to monitor all the thousands of people, and then who knows how many flights those thousands of people were on, probably increase to tracking tens of thousands of people to see if they were infected, and if just one gets through for a couple weeks infecting a community, it means back to quarantine again.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, seaman11 said:

why would they not mandate it for airlines then?   we shall see but i highly doubt they will do that.   i dont think they have control over that, they could close a port and deny entry,. that is true. 

They established specific rules for allowing the Zaandam and the Coral Princess to dock.  They can very easily set whatever port rules that they want as dictated by the appropriate county or state health departments.

 

 

[npcl]

1 hour ago, seaman11 said:

here check this out,  carnival plans to limit pax on may and june voyages.  see this is what i was thinking, start slow. select cruises. maybe restrict 70 and older im not sure. 

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5259/

All it will take is for one of these cruise to end up with Covid-19 on board and it could kill off the industry.

[mianmike]

1 hour ago, seaman11 said:

here check this out,  carnival plans to limit pax on may and june voyages.  see this is what i was thinking, start slow. select cruises. maybe restrict 70 and older im not sure. 

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5259/

 

Interesting, thanks for sharing.  

 

If Carnival can find ports to sail from and to, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if NCL followed suit.  NCL is much more cash strapped and thus has that motivation.  On the latest quarterly investor conference call Del Rio was emphasizing there was only one cruise line (at the time of the call) that had a Covid outbreak and it wasn't NCL. Would he be willing to risk a potential PR nightmare if there's a covid outbreak?  The other difficulty is finding ports AND nearby airports willing to accept an influx of passengers.  It will be interesting to see if Carnival pulls it off.     

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, mianmike said:

 

Interesting, thanks for sharing.  

 

If Carnival can find ports to sail from and to, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if NCL followed suit.  NCL is much more cash strapped and thus has that motivation.  On the latest quarterly investor conference call Del Rio was emphasizing there was only one cruise line (at the time of the call) that had a Covid outbreak and it wasn't NCL. Would he be willing to risk a potential PR nightmare if there's a covid outbreak?  The other difficulty is finding ports AND nearby airports willing to accept an influx of passengers.  It will be interesting to see if Carnival pulls it off.     

I agree, guess what they also already sold out till july .   lol there goes that theory that who would cruise so soon.  

[sverigecruiser]

7 hours ago, ziggyuk said:

 

This is what I was reading about the tightening up.

Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures

 

 

As I read it there are no plans to tightening up but they are preparing to be able to tightening up if they feel that they need to.

 

We can just wait and see what happens.