Curve beginning to flatten ,good news for the cruise industry

[OceanBlueWaters]

1 minute ago, Greenpea2 said:

Glad to hear it--as am I. Just seems like so often when someone asks an optimistic question, way too many replies are like slaps. Optimism is just generally in the nature of some, and not in others.

 

Hang tight Greenpea2...we are essentially neighbors.  Crazy times. Be safe!!! 🙂

[Greenpea2]

2 minutes ago, OceanBlueWaters said:

Hang tight Greenpea2...we are essentially neighbors.  Crazy times. Be safe!!! 🙂

You hang in there too--stay safe! 

[OceanBlueWaters]

Just now, Greenpea2 said:

You hang in there too--stay safe! 

👍🙂🙂

[JoeTec]

27 minutes ago, OceanBlueWaters said:

Did you not understand the post?  NJ has been ordered to stay at home and only 1 person is (recommended) to venture out to get NECESSARY supplies (i.e. groceries, medicine).

Families going on SHOPPING TRIPS to purchase PAINT during this time, confirms my already belief that people are knuckleheads and self centered and they feel rules don't apply to them.  I have seen this behavior over and over again during this crisis...
Simply sad...

 

Closing store(s) = not necessary.  Lots of folks need their jobs and give services to TRUE essentials.

Banning knuckleheads from stores = DEFINITELY!  But who has the logistical capacity to ban knuckleheads at this time...

Be safe everyone and use common sense 🙂

 

Good grief...

 

JMO

Thank You @OceanBlueWaters!! Its exactly what I was trying to say. All stores in the USA are still allowing customers into the stores but its supposed to be only to buy essentials. Groups of people & families with little kids are coming in & socializing because there isn't many places open. 

[beerman2]

31 minutes ago, Greenpea2 said:

Glad to hear it--as am I. Just seems like so often when someone asks an optimistic question, way too many replies are like slaps. Optimism is just generally in the nature of some, and not in others.

 

Optimism is great, but you also have to be a little realistic. I'm not sure people are using common sense right now.

 

Then you have those that think cruise lines will be able to sail at the drop of a hat. Optimism says that might be possible, being  realistic says no way.  

 

I've already cancelled a late April land vacation and on the verge of missing granddaughters National Dance Competition. Just being realistic that travel isn't essential right now.

[Greenpea2]

Totally agree that you need common sense too. We had a Bed and Breakfast booked since last August for the end of this month. I called and asked if, instead of cancelling, can we just move it a couple months later? She was happy to. So now we are booked for mid June. Hoping it will be a go but well aware we might have to move it again. 

[pokerpro5]

19 minutes ago, Greenpea2 said:

Totally agree that you need common sense too. We had a Bed and Breakfast booked since last August for the end of this month. I called and asked if, instead of cancelling, can we just move it a couple months later? She was happy to. So now we are booked for mid June. Hoping it will be a go but well aware we might have to move it again. 

 

Good luck, but I doubt traveling will be safe in June.

Edited April 8, 2020 by pokerpro5

[beerman2]

9 minutes ago, Greenpea2 said:

Totally agree that you need common sense too. We had a Bed and Breakfast booked since last August for the end of this month. I called and asked if, instead of cancelling, can we just move it a couple months later? She was happy to. So now we are booked for mid June. Hoping it will be a go but well aware we might have to move it again. 

Just doing a fake booking on Carnival , the earliest dates available are June 27th and 28th. That speaks volumes as to the timeline.

 

That was Both Miami and Port Canaveral. However you can bet someone will come on here and ask if they are cruising in May.

[pokerpro5]

Cruising will not be deemed safe until it is near-certain that the coronavirus is not a threat.

 

This will either be via an effective vaccine (sometime in 2021) or very reliable test (both antibody and regular).

 

Cruise ships are EXTREMELY susceptible to spreading viruses.  "Flattening" does not mean we're close to past the pandemic.  It means that daily cases aren't increasing, meaning that hospitals can better handle the influx.

 

I cannot see cruise ships going at any time in 2020, and if it does happen, it will be late 2020.

 

There is also a fair chance NCL and other lines will collapse  You should NOT book any new cruises now, and you should NOT take FCCs instead of refunds.

[seaman11]

3 hours ago, david_sobe said:

I love your love of cruising seaman11.   You would sail directly into a hurricane and be fearless.   If I'm ever on the Titanic, I want you in my group.  No matter what you are determined to start sailing again 🙂

the funny thing is i have, on the liberty of seas during harvey. 😝

[seaman11]

10 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

Just doing a fake booking on Carnival , the earliest dates available are June 27th and 28th. That speaks volumes as to the timeline.

 

That was Both Miami and Port Canaveral. However you can bet someone will come on here and ask if they are cruising in May.

Ncl is still selling late may cruises.  and no one is saying they will start up at the drop of a hat.  im saying they will see how the situation is in 20-30 days , the curve flattening is good news , these may cruises may not happen though, i agree.  But some are acting like they will not start up again this summer or year .  i disagree. i think many including yourself underestimate the demand for it and the the need for the companies to get going again. 

 

 just as some are saying they will never cruise again till a vaccine comes out there are thousands thinking this virus was nothing more than a flu.  there are also many like me in the middle. being cautious but also not panicking. 

[mking8288]

Flattening the curve is just one of the 4 markers, according to another group panel of expert scientists - to reopen the country, on a state-by-state basis ... 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8198051/The-four-markers-needs-life-normal-amid-pandemic.html

 

Statistics can be easily skewed to change & shape the curves as presented - https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/07/nyc-death-toll-coronavirus-fears-of-undercount-at-home-deaths

 

Cruiselines will be at the end of the long line in the recovery process, after mass transit, buses & rails, and airlines gradually come back to life and restore to a new "normal" status quo.  

 

Being optimistic and realistic, the odds of getting behind the wheels and embarking on a nice road trip this Fall is looking more & more practical and reasonable to plan ahead vs. cruising anytime soon.  I was on the frontline then during SARS, Swine Flu then - we flew, travel & cruised then ... and outbreaks like Ebola & Measles also didn't dampen our readiness to pack our rollerboards.  But, this time around, feel free to rush ahead & roll the dices.  

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by mking8288

[K_e_short]

Another thing to mention is that every government body, business, company, etc. is only making predictions one month out.

 

I"m sure its to make sure that people don't freak out but people are already freaking out.

 

I"m in Ontario, Canada, and for example day cares fall under a different regulation then schools. The minister was able to close schools for a month at a time but only daycares for two weeks. 

 

In May they will announce June and then continue that trend.

[Corliss]

Europe is already planning the first stage of their reopening.

 

How Europe is planning to lift the lockdown: Austria will open small shops next week, Denmark wants 'staggered' return to work and Germany could re-open schools if infection rate stays low

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191185/Austria-Denmark-plan-lift-lockdown-restrictions-week.html

 

Norway cleared to gradually reopen

https://www.newsinenglish.no/2020/04/07/norway-cleared-to-gradually-reopen/

[mugtech]

4 hours ago, beerman2 said:

Just doing a fake booking on Carnival , the earliest dates available are June 27th and 28th. That speaks volumes as to the timeline.

 

That was Both Miami and Port Canaveral. However you can bet someone will come on here and ask if they are cruising in May.

Probably because all the cruises before June 27 are booked solid, everyone so eager to get back on a ship.  There is no charge for being quarantined, great way to relax.

[CroozFanatic]

15 hours ago, mking8288 said:

Here in NYC, epic center/C19 ground zero for USA - at the moment - I don't think anyone is calling the limited data a flattening of the high curves or even plateauing of the daily deaths - reported officially - for the first wave of this global epidemic, being tracked (and, due to lack of full testing as cited by medical examiners, coroners and funeral directors where C19 deaths might be a secondary factor).  

 

States like Louisiana are definitely not at/near the apex and racing toward the top of the hill, and other states in the US are not projected to reach the peak and/or flatten these dynmanic curves until later in April and May for this first wave of season 1 - medical experts, not politicians, around the globe are predicting and warning of a secondary waves and subsequent seasonal return of C19, until vaccine and proven clinical interventions are found - and/or enough of the world's population are infected & managed to recover & have immunity (and, quite a few - in large numbers - has and will die.)  

 

Hong Kong authorities, across the border from China launched very strict measures to slow & stop the pandemic from spreading, flatten their curves for its 7 million residents with low numbers for infections and deaths.  Measures were eased up last month, and, then it spiked up again due to "imported" cases & additional community infection, some blaming it on repatriated cruise ship passengers and stranded oversea travelers that came "home" & remained asymptomatic and were not detected by infra-red temperature scans and/or testing.  HK has now returned to stricter measures including mandatory quarantined and virtually shut its borders to visitors & tourists.  

 

Within our extended families are those on the healthcare frontline in nursing, pharmacy, air travel and air cargo, I.T. and busy in the repurposed supply chains - making PPE gowns - they would love to know that the country as a whole has this deadly pandemic under control, and not losing another friend or co-worker, etc. to this virus.  Hope and aspiration is not a proven strategy except for the minds.  We would love to get back to normal and start doing vacations again ... and easy cruising.  

 

P.S.  NYS just reported 731 new C19 deaths w/i last 24 hours and expected to continue with those high numbers for the near future.  NJ's numbers aren't looking any better.  Beginning of flattening of the curves are meaningless to those hurting and lying in ICU, 25% of them intubated.  

 

 

I don't like cruisecritic, but I love all of your posts! Thank you.

[Corliss]

Actually today is the "projected" day of peak resource use in New York according to the "models" the medical experts have been using and tomorrow is the projected peak death rate for New York.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

 

Over the last week the "models" have been reducing most of their expectations for most states.  Their past numbers have been very inaccurate which is a good thing.

 

And the New York/New Jersey area is responsible for approximately half of all the cases of infection and half of the death rates in the whole country.  And, even so, over the last several days hospitializations, ICU beds being used and intubations in New York have all gone down.

 

Some states are even starting to return some of the equipment the administration had provided because they have determined they have more than they will need.

[hamrag]

12 hours ago, seaman11 said:

it may not happen in may, but im thinking late june is a real possibility. 

So when do you start the new thread? After this one gets locked by the mods, like the previous thread you started? 😏😷

[david_sobe]

I was shocked to see this morning there are still cruise ships at sea.  There is a ship off Uruguay with 40% of passengers sick.  I think they were going to Antarctica.  Why in the world are these ships still leaving port?   This is why cruising cant resume.  These passengers and cruise line thought with the smaller amount of passengers and sailing from an country without a huge outbreak would be safe.  Now they are stuck with nowhere to go.

[Corliss]

IHME (the group that prepares the "models" the government is using) just updated their projections.  They have lowered all their expectations AGAIN dramatically.  Now expecting national peak in 3 days and have lowered total deaths to 60,415.  Similar number of reported flu deaths in 2017-2018.  WOW!

 

Last week it was 100,000-200,000.  Three days ago it was 81,000.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[beerman2]

4 hours ago, Corliss said:

Actually today is the "projected" day of peak resource use in New York according to the "models" the medical experts have been using and tomorrow is the projected peak death rate for New York.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

 

Over the last week the "models" have been reducing most of their expectations for most states.  Their past numbers have been very inaccurate which is a good thing.

 

And the New York/New Jersey area is responsible for approximately half of all the cases of infection and half of the death rates in the whole country.  And, even so, over the last several days hospitializations, ICU beds being used and intubations in New York have all gone down.

 

Some states are even starting to return some of the equipment the administration had provided because they have determined they have more than they will need.

But yet New York had their highest one day total of deaths yesterday. That's what's bad about projections/flattening.

 

Dr. Acton who is head of Ohio Health Dept. has repeatedly said even when the curve flattens if we think the situation in on the upswing, if we let our excitement get the best of us within 2 weeks we could most likely be right back at square one.

 

Can this virus mutate faster than the fall projection, absolutely, that's why we need to proceed with caution.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by beerman2

[Trimone]

Wonder where The World is? People live on it🤧

[Corliss]

Deaths are a lagging indicator as Dr. Fauci has pointed out.  The people who are dying right now contracted the virus 2 to 3 weeks ago in many cases before social distancing mitigation was wide spread.  New hospitalizations are where you have to look for indications that the worst is over and we are beginning to see some of those indications.

 

As far as the virus coming right back so long as mitigation has been long enough to have brought about virus resolution in almost all the cases (and one month should do that) there will be very few infected people left to spread the virus again.  Many experts are starting to believe the this virus was already spreading in New York all the way back to November which may partially explain why New York has had such astronomical numbers.  Tests have been positive in 28% of New Yorkers; but only 8% of the rest of the country.

[bouhunter]

18 hours ago, seaman11 said:

that seems to be what many think, but i think they are wrong. there will be some cruises starting up in late may or june, imo. especially with the curve flattening out in april.  

Of 2021?

[4774Papa]

Here is Coastal Georgia our county of 85,000 population has 30 cases and most are not serious and those people are quarantined at home.

 

Everything is shut down except restaurants for takeout, grocery stores, seafood markets (selling local fish and shrimp), pharmacies and hardware stores.

 

My mailbox collapsed due to rust, so I had to replace it.  I went to Lowe's and there was a control to keep a smaller number from going in the store.  You waited in line separated by more than six feet.   I went in the store, did my business, never came closer than 6 ft from anyone (there was a plexiglass partition protecting the sales clerk on checkout.  I wore my mask and gloves.  

Don't see a problem with that.