Curve beginning to flatten ,good news for the cruise industry

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, JoeTec said:

I'm in New Jersey it's no where near flattening around here no matter what the news it reporting.

I work at Home Depot & we are limiting customers to 100 at a time & the amount of people that are shopping for non essentials are ridiculous. Families are coming in with their kids, walking around the store & then buying one gallon of paint! 

it will take a few weeks or more, the stores are still going to be on high precaution,  this only means the cases being reported has slowed down. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by seaman11

[seaman11]

2 hours ago, Fartlek said:

It is great that curve is getting flattened.  However the area under the curve is the same.  Basically the same number of people get the virus but over a longer period.  With a flattened curve the icu’s can handle the sick.   
 

it will be a very long time before anyone cruises again 

that seems to be what many think, but i think they are wrong. there will be some cruises starting up in late may or june, imo. especially with the curve flattening out in april.  

[PTC DAWG]

5 hours ago, Laszlo said:

Until there's a vaccine, we're either going to need to continue doing what we're doing now, or, we'll see the rate of increase resume shortly after businesses reopen. Can't have it both ways. We won't see "normal" until there's a vaccine. No MLB, NHL, or NFL seasons this year. No sports period. No concerts. No bars, No restaurants, No cruises. Nothing that involves a group gathering. People will need to continue to wear masks. Only hope between now and when a vaccine is readily available is that there are treatments available so fewer people will die from the coronavirus. But until there's a vaccine, the virus is in control

We all gonna die...

 

Did cruising shut down during the swine flu outbreak?  How many did that kill? 

Edited April 7, 2020 by PTC DAWG

[ColeThornton]

1 minute ago, PTC DAWG said:

We all gonna die...

 

 

My doctor told me I had four months to live then he found out I still had ten months on my health insurance so he changed my diagnosis.

[Lupush]

2 hours ago, Fartlek said:

Cruises were one of the first to feel the impact of the virus and I believe will be the vVERY last to get up and running. A vaccine is 18-24 months away and my guess is cruising will be another 6.  My guess is late 2022

Every cruise line will be out of business if this is the case.  

[beerman2]

38 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

that seems to be what many think, but i think they are wrong. there will be some cruises starting up in late may or june, imo. especially with the curve flattening out in april.  

Just listenening to the Dr. that is head of Ohio health care, and she said even though the curves may flatten at end of April beginning of May if people get that false sense of security that we are out of the woods are clearly mistaken.

 

Within 2 weeks we could be right back to where we are now.

 

Are those projections absolutely, people just need to be patient.

 

Even when we are able to get out, bars/Restaurants allowed to open there will be strict guidelines on their operations. It will be gradual.

 

 

I'm pretty sure cruise lines will be gradually getting back to sailing with strict guidelines.

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by beerman2

[Laszlo]

7 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

'm pretty sure cruise lines will be gradually getting back to sailing with strict guidelines.

 

Once the quick test start rolling I can see them being given before you are allowed to board. After that I can see you needing a doctors note or a certificate saying you were vaccinated to board

Edited April 7, 2020 by Laszlo

[Petoonya]

I have a very stupid question and I'm sure someone can point out the flaw in my thinking in short order. My brain is flat lining today.

 

My Alaska cruise is May 17 from Seattle and made final in January. Of course I do not wish to cruise then, or anytime in 2020 unless a miracle vaccine is effective. So waiting for NCL to cancel.

 

My question is this. Is it reasonable that NCL would proceed with the cruise, even doing coastal WA, OR and Calif with no stop but one in Ensenada? That is if Seattle opens, but no Canada available? They have a lot of people's money. Now Feb 1 there were few cabins available, yet  it's certain a lot have cancelled since. But if NCL has enough of people's money to say the cruise shall operate, and not have to return those fares, couldn't they substitute a coastal cruise with one stop in Mexico?

 

A riot for sure, but would it be possible?

[kwokpot]

3 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

I have a very stupid question and I'm sure someone can point out the flaw in my thinking in short order. My brain is flat lining today.

 

My Alaska cruise is May 17 from Seattle and made final in January. Of course I do not wish to cruise then, or anytime in 2020 unless a miracle vaccine is effective. So waiting for NCL to cancel.

 

My question is this. Is it reasonable that NCL would proceed with the cruise, even doing coastal WA, OR and Calif with no stop but one in Ensenada? That is if Seattle opens, but no Canada available? They have a lot of people's money. Now Feb 1 there were few cabins available, yet  it's certain a lot have cancelled since. But if NCL has enough of people's money to say the cruise shall operate, and not have to return those fares, couldn't they substitute a coastal cruise with one stop in Mexico?

 

A riot for sure, but would it be possible?

I don't see that as an option in 5 weeks. 

[Petoonya]

5 minutes ago, kwokpot said:

I don't see that as an option in 5 weeks. 

Realize that many will not see it as a reasonable option.

But the question is- would it be possible?  Could they get away with it would be a better question. I mean there would be an uproar for sure. But to save resources and since most have paid, (and I assume doing the same as me waiting for cancellation), wouldn't it be in NCL's best financial interest to say WE'RE GONNA GO- to heck with you- we have your money!

?

Edited April 7, 2020 by Petoonya

[iamaqt2]

9 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

Realize that many will not see it as a reasonable option.

But the question is- would it be possible?  Could they get away with it would be a better question. I mean there would be an uproar for sure. But to save resources and since most have paid, (and I assume doing the same as me waiting for cancellation), wouldn't it be in NCL's best financial interest to say WE'RE GONNA GO- to heck with you- we have your money!

?

More likely is that there isn't a single port that will let passengers off anywhere in the near future.  My guess is that your sailing will be cancelled.

[Petoonya]

3 minutes ago, iamaqt2 said:

More likely is that there isn't a single port that will let passengers off anywhere in the near future.  My guess is that your sailing will be cancelled.

Well......Mexico opens April 21. And who knows might be later- yet there is HUGE financial incentive for opening Mexico ASAP. All NCL needs is one foreign port. Ensenada could be it.

[Laszlo]

27 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

I have a very stupid question and I'm sure someone can point out the flaw in my thinking in short order. My brain is flat lining today.

 

My Alaska cruise is May 17 from Seattle and made final in January. Of course I do not wish to cruise then, or anytime in 2020 unless a miracle vaccine is effective. So waiting for NCL to cancel.

 

My question is this. Is it reasonable that NCL would proceed with the cruise, even doing coastal WA, OR and Calif with no stop but one in Ensenada? That is if Seattle opens, but no Canada available? They have a lot of people's money. Now Feb 1 there were few cabins available, yet  it's certain a lot have cancelled since. But if NCL has enough of people's money to say the cruise shall operate, and not have to return those fares, couldn't they substitute a coastal cruise with one stop in Mexico?

 

A riot for sure, but would it be possible?

 

 

I don't see that as an Option at all. This is not about the destination. Its about cramming 5000 plus people on ship.....it only takes one sick person. 

 

 

.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Laszlo

[Petoonya]

Just now, Laszlo said:

I don't see that as an Option at all. This is not about the destination. Its about cramming 5000 plus people on ship.....it only takes one sick person. 

I forget about PR. Not the best option for NCL to have even one sick person. Quite correct.

[Laszlo]

4 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

I forget about PR. Not the best option for NCL to have even one sick person. Quite correct.

Yea it sucks, my wife and I had a great 11 day cruise planned on the Jade for February 2021. Thats not happening....or should I say you couldn't pay me to go Lol

 

Keep in mind, this is only round / wave one.....think about that

Edited April 7, 2020 by Laszlo

[jskinsd]

3 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

Well......Mexico opens April 21. And who knows might be later- yet there is HUGE financial incentive for opening Mexico ASAP. All NCL needs is one foreign port. Ensenada could be it.

Even if the ship sails, what guarantee the ship will not be quarantined on its way back to port.  What's another two weeks.✌️

[Petoonya]

12 minutes ago, Laszlo said:

Yea it sucks, my wife and I had a great 11 day cruise planned on the Jade for February 2021. Thats not happening....or should I say you couldn't pay me to go Lol

Oh jeez- well my cruise on Oceania Regatta, Tahiti-Hawaii-SF, that was to take place on this Easter Sunday was of course cancelled. We've done the cruise before and loved it. So we booked it again April 2021! And hoping for a miracle, maybe a vaccine? Final is due in November so we'll decide then.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Petoonya

[beerman2]

2 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

I forget about PR. Not the best option for NCL to have even one sick person. Quite correct.

Not only the bad PR, but I don't believe NCL or any cruise lines have enough workers left in US to make it a go.

 

Many have been sent home. Getting them back will be a process. Coming back means 2 weeks quarantine.

 

Then you have the pax , what kind of test is available to clear everyone?

 

I don't believe it is possible.

 

I will say here also , the Dr. who heads Ohio Health Dept. said just because the curves are flattened doesn't mean people should have a false sense of security. If we don't continue to Social distance within 2 weeks the curve would  take a huge hit/increase.

[Petoonya]

8 minutes ago, Laszlo said:

Yea it sucks, my wife and I had a great 11 day cruise planned on the Jade for February 2021. Thats not happening....or should I say you couldn't pay me to go Lol

 

Keep in mind, this is only round / wave one.....think about that

 

Oh quite realize this is wave 1, yet then why does NCL persist in cancelling cruises but 6 weeks at a time? can't help but believe there is an ulterior motive.

 

6 minutes ago, jskinsd said:

Even if the ship sails, what guarantee the ship will not be quarantined on its way back to port.  What's another two weeks.✌️

 

Quite true. PR as I say would be the ultimate reason.

[seaman11]

13 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

Not only the bad PR, but I don't believe NCL or any cruise lines have enough workers left in US to make it a go.

 

Many have been sent home. Getting them back will be a process. Coming back means 2 weeks quarantine.

 

Then you have the pax , what kind of test is available to clear everyone?

 

I don't believe it is possible.

 

I will say here also , the Dr. who heads Ohio Health Dept. said just because the curves are flattened doesn't mean people should have a false sense of security. If we don't continue to Social distance within 2 weeks the curve would  take a huge hit/increase.

some seem to think that there is going to be some massive screening process.  cost wise, that wont happen.  some are living in a perfect world dream.  there will be a questionnaire and perhaps temp check.  do not underestimate the  need to get it going again asap and that many will be willing to go for the right price. 

 

once things are looking better., you would be surprised how fast they can get it going. also once its 80 degrees out (florida ports) , a rebound of this clovid would be rare. 

[sverigecruiser]

2 hours ago, Laszlo said:

We can't assume anything at the moment, not with this bug. Typical with the common flu if you get it once during the season you won't get it again (that year). Flu shots can be hit or miss year to year. A few big questions, when will a vaccine be ready and to what degree will the Covid 19 virus mutate? In 9-12 months the virus could mutate for the better or worse and the vaccine they are working on will have little to know effect

 

I understand that flu shots for "the common flu" can be hit or miss year to year but shouldn't a specified Covid 19 vaccine have a much better effect on Covid 19?

 

If the virus mutate is it still Covid 19 or something else?

 

I understand that many people want a vaccine but I don't want them to rush it too much.

[GA Dave]

The reason this pandemic is so problematic is simply due to the population growth since the last really bad global pandemic.  When the Spanish Flu hit in 1918-1920, the world population was 1.2 billion.  Today, it is over 7.7 billion.  The Spanish Flu killed in excess of 50 million people.  As of this morning, COVID-19 has killed 74,783 so far.  If the entire world does not continue to lock down for this virus before the vaccine is ready, things will get out of control really fast.

[beerman2]

2 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

some seem to think that there is going to be some massive screening process.  cost wise, that wont happen.  some are living in a perfect world dream.  there will be a questionnaire and perhaps temp check.  do not underestimate the  need to get it going again asap and that many will be willing to go for the right price. 

 

once things are looking better., you would be surprised how fast they can get it going. also once its 80 degrees out (florida ports) , a rebound of this clovid would be rare. 

You still have to get the state of Florida to lift the 14 day quarantine for pax entering the state. Can Fla. residents only fill a ship or make it a profitable sailing.

 

Your optimism if fine, but there are many moving parts that have to align. I bet this isn't something as a sailor you've even seen before.

 

 

[zqvol]

16 hours ago, seaman11 said:

https://www.newsweek.com/new-jersey-beginning-flatten-curve-coronavirus-cases-governor-says-1496426

 

https://www.wric.com/health/coronavirus/virginias-peak-coronavirus-outbreak-prediction-moved-from-may-to-april/

 

 

NJ already showing signs of flattening out and VA has moved up a may date to sometime in april. 

 

 

This is a good sign , for those pessimistic about the future. 

 

Maybe so, but most of the country isn't close to flattening out. I expect all cruises halted until July 1 at the earliest.

Edited April 7, 2020 by zqvol

[ziggyuk]

4 hours ago, mking8288 said:

Hong Kong authorities, across the border from China launched very strict measures to slow & stop the pandemic from spreading, flatten their curves for its 7 million residents with low numbers for infections and deaths.  Measures were eased up last month, and, then it spiked up again due to "imported" cases & additional community infection, some blaming it on repatriated cruise ship passengers and stranded oversea travelers that came "home" & remained asymptomatic and were not detected by infra-red temperature scans and/or testing.  HK has now returned to stricter measures including mandatory quarantined and virtually shut its borders to visitors & tourists.

 

 

This is very true, we have family in HK and know first hand, also a lot of the "imported virus" has been students leaving European universities and schools returning home.

 

Here is the interesting thing with Hong Kong that may surprise people.

They have never closed, restaurants, theatres, gyms, bars, shops and the like, they did introduce distancing, in cinemas for example they have lots of empty seats and restaurants for example the number of people per table and distance between tables - but thats all.

 

Hong Kong controlled their spread, by closing borders, everyone wearing masks and social distancing, that's it.

 

With the lastest new infections, gyms and bars are now closed but that has only just happened, people still go to restaurants, still go shopping, most things are still the same.