SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[crusinbanjo]

With the announcement of a successful vaccine test,  2021 could be a restart year after all.  Still much work remains to be sure of safety, then distribution and deployment worldwide to be really effective.   Mrs Banjo and I are still in wait and see mode........  but always hopeful

[rosepark]

Well, it looks like it won't be starting in the first few months of 20201. Our April 2021 Transatlantic from Florida to Lisbon has just been cancelled, which seems a a bit premature.

Rp

[les37b]

1 hour ago, rosepark said:

Well, it looks like it won't be starting in the first few months of 20201. Our April 2021 Transatlantic from Florida to Lisbon has just been cancelled, which seems a a bit premature.

Rp

 

Yes, we just got the news our Moon March 20 Fort Lauderdale to Barcelona also got pulled today.

 

What's a little annoying is I had been speaking with SS only yesterday about this (as its about 130 days way and I'd not booked flights.).... I even asked if its likely to be cancelled with the lack of news the Moon was potentially  being rescheduled to sail the Caribbean had materialised for Jan to March.

 

Just hope the next booking for May on the Spirit doesn't also get squashed.

[Lois R]

Good morning, I continue to only have 1 sailing booked and that is for Oct 2021.  I was hoping

to be able to sail before that time..everything is so up in the air.  The vaccine news is certainly

a good thing but God only knows when it will really be distributed to the majority of people.

[rosepark]

I know it doesn't amount to much in the general scheme of things, but for the first time in all this

hoo-hah, I'm a bit fed up. Big Birthday cruise this year scrapped and now special wedding anniversary one next year gone the same way. Pooh.

Rp

[silkismom]

Someone on Facebook SS group said their TA emailed that their April Muse around Japan was canceled, we're on that too suppose we'll hear today. #4 cancel, we'll NEVER get our Venetian number.

[worldtraveller99]

I was about to say that if the vaccine hurries up, then maybe I won't postpone our July 2021 (was already postponed from 2020) cruise to July 2022. But seeing all your cancellations above, maybe it would not have happened anyway, so I will postpone it.

 

So sorry rosepark to hear about your missed trips - but even a delayed one will be good too! Just call it a special day plus one year!

[TLCOhio]

Appreciate these above various updates, comments and follow-ups regarding future travels and cruises.   Much is happening these days!!  Some good.  Some bad.  There is certain tangible progress as to vaccines, treatments, etc.  BUT, soaring infection rates are happening in the U.S., Europe, etc.  And during the traditional periods between Thanksgiving, Chrismas and New Years, there will be family and social gatherings that could spike up infections to even higher levels.   It seems that as we learn additional information, then there are even more questions and "what if's" that arise.  

 

This morning the top executives at Norwegian Cruise Line had their quarterly report.  The below news story gives some background.  From my listening to and making notes during this live, 60-minute session with Wall Street analysts, I have some added insights that might shed light as to what is facing ALL of the cruise lines, including Silversea and their parent, Royal Caribbean.  During the lengthy Q&A period, you can read much as to what is facing the cruise industry and when/how they do their re-start efforts. 

 

In the opening comments by NCLH CEO Frank Del Rio, his clear  statements reflected caution including his statements about the “long road to recovery”, the current situation being  “challenging”, about how the latest from the CDC reflects “points needing clarification”, noting the  “hard winter ahead”, how cruise lines “can’t eliminate all risks” as to health issues/questions, that health-wise there exists  “no silver bullet” and that the first sailings will involve  “gradual, shorter, seven days or less” cruises.  

 

For the future, Del Rio and his CFO discussed their nine new ships on order and that they expect these more efficient ships ultimately to help profits.  As to the questions for ramping up to re-opening during the upcoming months, he called much, including the exact rules from the CDC, as  “very fuzzy and fluid".  His bottom line seemed to be that it will be a fairly slow period during the next six to nine months and he called 2021 as a "transition year."   

 

The experienced and savvy Del Rio predicted that 2022 to be the first year where they will be able to have a fuller range of ships operating and ports visited.  Then, his crystal ball says that 2023 will be a year for "normalization".    There was mention that 60% of their future bookings are coming from past customers.  That means 40% of the future bookings were from new customers.  You can view that data in several ways.  Good or bad as to the guesses/spin about "pent-up demand".  Del Rio pushed as to how how digital marketing is shifting their outlook for the ways on-line bookings will affect their future marketing, etc., process.  That brought up to me as to what all of that means for the future role/power of travel agents. At many points, these executives talked about "reducing expenses" and what they are learning for ways to cut costs.  If I was a TA, there are serious questions that will be coming up in the coming months and years as to how they manage and balance the expenses and affects for "costs" versus the newly exploding digital booking world.   As to the upcoming trial sailings, De Rio noted that there is much that needs to be worked out with CDC.  And in my mind with a new White House administration coming in, what will be their attitudes and "flexibility" as to cruises re-opening quickly?   Some cruise lines might start out these trial cruises in early January.  It was stressed several times that they "only get one chance to get it right" during this re-start.  Overall, there was so much during this Q&A session about how much, in Del Rio's words, that “we simply don’t know.”

 

You can access more details and listen to a replay of these conference call at: http://www.nclhltdinvestor.com 

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch reporting late yesterday, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line misses Q3 views, pins hopes on far-off demand” with this sub-head: "Cruise operator sees demand for trip in second half of 2021 and beyond."

 

Here are more of their highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings stock fell in the extended session Monday after the cruise operator reported worse-than-feared third-quarter losses and sales that dwindled to the millions of dollars rather than billions.  Norwegian said it lost $677.4 million, or $2.50 a share, in the quarter, contrasting with a profit of $450.6 million, or $2.09 a share, in the year-ago quarter.  Demand for future cruises continues, especially for departures in the second half of 2021 and beyond, Norwegian said.  First-half-of-the-year bookings, however, remain 'below historical ranges as expected due to the current uncertain environment.'  Pricing for full-year 2021 is in line with pre-pandemic levels, even after including the dilutive impact of future cruise credits, the company said.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-line-misses-q3-views-pins-hopes-in-pent-up-demand-11604959514

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 50,398 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

[Randyk47]

8 hours ago, Lois R said:

Good morning, I continue to only have 1 sailing booked and that is for Oct 2021.  I was hoping

to be able to sail before that time..everything is so up in the air.  The vaccine news is certainly

a good thing but God only knows when it will really be distributed to the majority of people.

My wife’s chief of public health briefed her agency leadership this morning that even if the Pfizer vaccine is approved for use later this year it will be June-July 2021 before it is widely available.   He said he was assuming that at least in the US there would be a high pressure effort to get the vaccine out as soon as possible and had factored that into his estimate.   The initial runs of vaccine will go to front line workers (doctors, nurses, EMTs, firefighters, police, etc.) and that will take most of the initial supply and time.    
 

PS - My wife’s hematologist/oncologist told her just three weeks ago she would decide when and which vaccine, if there was a choice, my wife would get and she’d give it to her.   She told her not to get caught up in the potential  “get in line and take your shot” process at work.    

Edited November 10, 2020 by Randyk47

[docruth]

2 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

My wife’s chief of public health briefed her agency leadership this morning that even if the Pfizer vaccine is approved for use later this year it will be June-July 2021 before it is widely available.   He said he was assuming that at least in the US there would be a high pressure effort to get the vaccine out as soon as possible and had factored that into his estimate.   The initial runs of vaccine will go to front line workers (doctors, nurses, EMTs, firefighters, police, etc.) and that will take most of the initial supply and time.    
 

PS - My wife’s hematologist/oncologist told her just three weeks ago she would decide when and which vaccine, if there was a choice, my wife would get and she’d give it to her.   She told her not to get caught up in the potential  “get in line and take your shot” process at work.    

 

Randy,

 

I’m with you in the patience department. I wouldn’t be in a big rush, and there still may be nothing to rush towards right now. I want to cruise as bad as anyone, but development and rollout of these vaccines, especially for several billion people, will not happen overnight. Doesn’t bode well for a rapid restart.

 

Even mid-2021 is super aggressive. I worked on getting several new child survival vaccines to populations in need, over the course of my career in global health. Took a very long time, and continues to this day. Development, safety evaluation, and logistics takes years, whether you use warp speed, light speed, or any other rapid deployment scheme.

 

As an aside, looks like they’ve halted trials on the Sinopac vaccine, developed in China, due to a serious side-effect. Second time a major pharma has had this kind of serious issue with a candidate vaccine for Covid-19.

 

We’re in complete agreement about the priorities listed above, with respect to who gets innoculated first. To the list above (doctors, nurses, EMTs, firefighters, police, etc.), I’d add military, national guard, essential workers and leadership.

 

So, whining “I want to go to Miami”, may make a lot of noise, but it won’t raise anyone’s vaccine  priority. In the end, it’ll just be a long slog back to normalcy. To tell you the truth, I’m really not sure what normalcy might look like in a post Covid-19, probably nobody does.

 

@Randyk47Keep up the great comments. @TLCOhio thanks for keeping the thread on track, your efforts are greatly appreciated.

 

Doc Ruth

Edited November 11, 2020 by docruth

[spinnaker2]

Yes its gonna be awhile to get back to being a pax on a cruise.

Personally I need to have some hope after being homebound since last February and I hang on every glimmer. 

I will take the smallest glimmer now.

 

As far as "normal" , I am not sure we will reclaim that state. How can we? We have been through too much, so much loss.

I hang on to the fact I am well and not suffering, in contrast to many others.

I consider myself lucky and blessed. I can afford to order my groceries online and visit my doctors via telemedicine.

 

I will continue to take precautions to protect others and myself. Its what I have right now in the glimmerworld.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2020 by spinnaker2

[docruth]

39 minutes ago, spinnaker2 said:

Yes its gonna be awhile to get back to being a pax on a cruise.

Personally I need to have some hope after being homebound since last February and I hang on every glimmer. 

I will take the smallest glimmer now.

 

As far as "normal" , I am not sure we will reclaim that state. How can we? We have been through too much, so much loss.

I hang on to the fact I am well and not suffering, in contrast to many others.

I consider myself lucky and blessed. I can afford to order my groceries online and visit my doctors via telemedicine.

 

I will continue to take precautions to protect others and myself. Its what I have right now in the glimmerworld.

 

 

 

 

 

That’s a really nice post!

[docruth]

1 hour ago, chrism23 said:

So yes.  The news is amazingly positive.  But the devil is going to be in the details, and the details are legion.  

 

Chrism,

 

Thanks for the nice response. We are in most violent agreement that the devil is indeed in the details.

 

Everywhere in the world, people want their lives to go back to normal. Unfortunately, these are processes that can’t be rushed, speeded up maybe, but this is one where there are no shortcuts on testing without compromising safety.

 

I have no doubt that we’ll get there in the end. The storage and transport requirements worry me, as we might end up at temps down in the cryogenic liquid range, and that will complicate logistics.

 

Throwing money at the problem helps, but talent, technology, time and perseverance are also necessary. As I’ve said in previous posts, I don’t want to be a Downer Debbie, but I think it’s always beneficial to maintain some semblance of reality in our discussions.

 

Doc Ruth

[silkismom]

Wouldn't hurt like mad for something that cold being injected into you?

[docruth]

5 minutes ago, silkismom said:

Wouldn't hurt like mad for something that cold being injected into you?

Silkismom,

 

I’m guessing the key word here is storage. It seems impossible to consider administering the vaccine at any temperature near that cold. There’s likely procedures to be defined that dictate how to bring it out of storage, what special handling or tools are required to warm it, and determine how long it remains efficacious after removal from the thermos. And then there’s the actual inoculation itself. For mass delivery, individual syringes or syrettes are not efficient, pneumatic injectors are preferred. We just don’t know anything yet, and probably won’t for some time.

 

As @chrism23 and I were just saying, the devil is in the details.

 

Doc Ruth

[silkismom]

Thanks Doc Ruth

[TLCOhio]

On 11/10/2020 at 7:22 PM, docruth said:

Randy,  I’m with you in the patience department. I wouldn’t be in a big rush, and there still may be nothing to rush towards right now. I want to cruise as bad as anyone, but development and rollout of these vaccines, especially for several billion people, will not happen overnight. Doesn’t bode well for a rapid restart.

@Randyk47Keep up the great comments. @TLCOhio thanks for keeping the thread on track, your efforts are greatly appreciated.  Doc Ruth

 

Appreciate Randy, Doc Ruth, chrism23, etc., for ALL of these great comments and follow-ups.  Keep it coming!!

 

From Forbes magazine yesterday, they had this headline: “Positive COVID-19 Result May Signal Setback For Cruise Industry” with these highlights: “In a still developing story, USA Today has reported that a passenger on SeaDream Yacht Club's SeaDream I has preliminarily tested positive for COVID-19.   The cruise ship had successfully made the first post-COVID transatlantic crossing from Portsmouth UK to Barbados, hoping to kick off a safe sailing season in the Caribbean. Sue Bryant, a freelance writer for Cruise Critic told USA Today that there are currently 53 passengers, 37 of them Americans, and 66 crew on board the ship. Initially, 19 passengers were on board for the transatlantic leg. The additional passengers boarded the ship this past Saturday. With the positive test, the ship is heading back to Barbados with passengers being asked to isolate themselves in their cabins.  Prior to both sailings, the cruise operator had put strict health and safety protocols in place requiring passengers to obtain a COVID-19 PCR test no more than 72 hours before boarding with rapid COVID re-testing by the ship’s doctor just prior to embarkation. The ship had already made port calls at St Vincent, Canouan, the Tobago Cays and Union Island but it is reported that passengers did not have contact with locals.  'This is a blow to the cruise industry's efforts to restart operations in the Caribbean,' said cruise expert Gene Sloan, who is also on the ship covering the voyage for The Points Guy. 'SeaDream's return to cruising in the Caribbean was a watershed moment for the industry, and many were hoping it would go smoothly.' ”

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/irenelevine/2020/11/11/positive-covid-19-result-may-signal-setback-for-cruise-industry/?sh=66bda64a779c

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 47,958 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

[taxatty]

23 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Appreciate Randy, Doc Ruth, chrism23, etc., for ALL of these great comments and follow-ups.  Keep it coming!!

 

From Forbes magazine yesterday, they had this headline: “Positive COVID-19 Result May Signal Setback For Cruise Industry” with these highlights: “In a still developing story, USA Today has reported that a passenger on SeaDream Yacht Club's SeaDream I has preliminarily tested positive for COVID-19.   The cruise ship had successfully made the first post-COVID transatlantic crossing from Portsmouth UK to Barbados, hoping to kick off a safe sailing season in the Caribbean. Sue Bryant, a freelance writer for Cruise Critic told USA Today that there are currently 53 passengers, 37 of them Americans, and 66 crew on board the ship. Initially, 19 passengers were on board for the transatlantic leg. The additional passengers boarded the ship this past Saturday. With the positive test, the ship is heading back to Barbados with passengers being asked to isolate themselves in their cabins.  Prior to both sailings, the cruise operator had put strict health and safety protocols in place requiring passengers to obtain a COVID-19 PCR test no more than 72 hours before boarding with rapid COVID re-testing by the ship’s doctor just prior to embarkation. The ship had already made port calls at St Vincent, Canouan, the Tobago Cays and Union Island but it is reported that passengers did not have contact with locals.  'This is a blow to the cruise industry's efforts to restart operations in the Caribbean,' said cruise expert Gene Sloan, who is also on the ship covering the voyage for The Points Guy. 'SeaDream's return to cruising in the Caribbean was a watershed moment for the industry, and many were hoping it would go smoothly.' ”

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/irenelevine/2020/11/11/positive-covid-19-result-may-signal-setback-for-cruise-industry/?sh=66bda64a779c

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 47,958 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

To get the story from the proverbial horse's mouth, check out https://thepointsguy.com/news/covid-cruise-ship-caribbean-seadream/. It's a sad tale of how one positive test can mess up a cruise for everyone on board, even on a small ship. Pax were even allowed to go maskless initially because the thought was that everyone had been tested so many times for COVID-19 and came up negative before the cruise that there was no reason to have to wear them. The ship's crew then suddenly changed their minds and required masks, which not surprisingly angered many of those onboard. Thereafter came the announcement of the positive test, and the results of a follow-up test are being awaited. This is an unfortunate example of how things can go wrong on a cruise ship with COVID-19 even with arguably ultra-conservative advance precautions. 

Edited November 12, 2020 by taxatty

[Stumblefoot]

2 hours ago, taxatty said:

It's a sad tale of how one positive test can mess up a cruise for everyone on board, even on a small ship. 

Thanks for the link taxatty.  I guess I shouldn't be surprised, but will people ever learn mask wearing is exceptionally important for the time being?  Reading the various reports from this voyage is just astounding.

• As the cruise began, not a single passenger chose to wear a mask.  Why?  Because passengers felt mask wearing was redundant due to SeaDream's COVID testing regime.  THIS just boggles my mind at the shear stupidity.
• On the third evening, when the ship announced crew would be wearing masks at all times henceforward and passengers would be required to wear masks when moving around the ship, many passengers became enraged because they booked the voyage specifically as it had no mask mandate.  THIS self entitlement mentality and lack of manners is so sad. 
• On the fifth day, the ship's captain announces that a passenger has "preliminarily" tested positive via a rapid test and required all passengers to return to, and isolate in, their cabins.
• On the sixth day, passengers remain isolated in their cabins as they await further decisions by local authorities.  BET the passengers wished they behaved differently now.

[taxatty]

There are now 5 confirmed COVID-19 cases on the SeaDream ship, with possibly more to come. So much for no masks on any cruise ship until the virus is gone.

[Daveywavey70]

Were there paying passengers on this voyage too? I Got the impression that they had filled it with freebie vloggers and journalists from the articles I've read. 

[Randyk47]

3 hours ago, Daveywavey70 said:

Were there paying passengers on this voyage too? I Got the impression that they had filled it with freebie vloggers and journalists from the articles I've read. 

If true then this is the perfect nightmare for SeaDream.....a whole boat load of people with sufficient skills to share with a built in audience.  

Edited November 13, 2020 by Randyk47

[Stumblefoot]

4 hours ago, taxatty said:

There are now 5 confirmed COVID-19 cases on the SeaDream ship, with possibly more to come. So much for no masks on any cruise ship until the virus is gone.

Tonight, another passenger has tested positive and there are now 6 passengers infected. 1 has been admitted to the hospital in Barbados and 4 are showing mild symptoms on the ship.

[TLCOhio]

10 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Tonight, another passenger has tested positive and there are now 6 passengers infected. 1 has been admitted to the hospital in Barbados and 4 are showing mild symptoms on the ship.

 

Appreciate these various helpful updates, added details and follow-ups.  Remember the cute words from Laurel and Hardy saying: "Well, here's another fine mess you've gotten us into"?  Remember them? See below!  The rest of the cruise industry cannot be happy with the negative coverage being created by this ill-fated SeaDream 1 cruise out of Barbados.

 

From the well-respected former USA Today travel expert Gene Sloan yesterday, his new  website has this headline: “Breaking: More passengers test positive for COVID on Caribbean cruise ship” with these highlights: “The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the Caribbean cruise ship in the midst of a COVID outbreak has jumped to five. In addition, there is preliminary evidence that there may be a sixth case on board.  In a shipwide announcement around 5 p.m. on Thursday, the captain of SeaDream Yacht Club’s SeaDream 1, Torbjorn Lund, said testing overnight of close contacts of the original passenger to test positive for COVID-19 had turned up a total of five confirmed cases in his traveling party.  The testing was performed by health authorities from the government of Barbados, where the ship docked late Wednesday night. A couple of hours after that announcement, Lund made another shipwide address to say preliminary findings from rapid tests on board had uncovered a sixth possible case. The possible case needs to be confirmed with a second test that will be processed overnight.  SeaDream 1 arrived in Barbados around 10:45 p.m. local time on Wednesday after cutting short a seven-night voyage to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada, due to the original positive test. Health authorities from Barbados boarded it shortly thereafter.  Barbados is the vessel’s home base for the winter season.  The five confirmed positive cases amount to nearly 10% of the passengers on the vessel. There are 53 passengers and 66 crew on board.  The list of passengers on SeaDream 1 includes me. I’ve been on board since Saturday covering this week’s voyage — a watershed moment for the cruise industry. The sailing was the first by any cruise line in the Caribbean since the coronavirus outbreak was declared a pandemic in March. All passengers and nonessential crew on the ship have been under quarantine in their cabins since around noon on Wednesday, when the first positive COVID test came back.”

 

Remember that all boarding on this cruise were tested TWICE before being allowed on this ship.  This is another tangible sign and solid evidence as to why any type of re-start by the cruise industry will be . . . very slow, limited and cautious.  Am I missing something or wrong with that viewpoint?

 

Full story at:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/more-passengers-test-positive-for-covid-on-caribbean-cruise-ship/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic location. Over 47,556 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

 

YES, sadly, it has been a "MESS" down in Barbados with the SeaDream 1:

[Randyk47]

SeaDream Yacht Club is a privately owned and held company.  The only connection SeaDream has to Seabourn is that the founder and owner of SeaDream was the founder of Seabourn Cruise Line.  Seabourn is owned by Carnival Cruise Lines not Norwegian.

Edited November 13, 2020 by Randyk47