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SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!


TLCOhio
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9 hours ago, kimanjo said:

I think some of you are not seeing the big/bigger picture of "essential".  The factory worker isn't just at a Ford factory, they're at a glass factory making bottles for vaccines.  Or a machine shop that makes a part for a tool that keeps the supply chain of the medicine YOU need going.

 

Appreciate these various comments and follow-ups.  Excellent above from kimanjo in South Florida that makes an great point as to how the legal and practical definitions for "ESSENTIAL" can vary so very much.  You would have thought that the initial top priority of front-line healthcare workers and those in nursing homes would be clear and easy.  RIGHT??

 

But, from the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, they had this headline: Hospitals Confront Tensions Over Who Gets First Covid-19 Vaccines" with this sub-headline: "The vaccine rollout has been bumpy in some hospital systems, where officials changed course after starting worker immunizations”.

 

Here are more of their story highlights: “Hospitals pushing ahead with Covid-19 vaccinations are facing calls for more transparency into how they decide who gets the earliest shots.  The sector is among the first to confront tensions. In many cases, plans were hastily completed in the days before federal regulators approved the first Covid-19 vaccine.  Overall, initial rollout of the vaccine has been rocky in some spots, with hospital systems in New York and California changing course after beginning to immunize workers. The original algorithm factored in age and other criteria to calculate overall risks from Covid-19, he said.  Physicians in training, known as residents and fellows, at Stanford and the University of California San Diego Health said they had little advance explanation of how the first shots were allocated. However, concerns grew amid reports that many among their ranks hadn’t been offered vaccines.  California hospitals aren’t required to make vaccine-prioritization schedules public or disclose them to the state, according to the California Department of Public Health.  Hospitals likely cannot avoid tension as they ration vaccines, said William Parker, a pulmonary and critical-care doctor who also studies health-care rationing at the University of Chicago. 'There’s never going to be a perfect plan,' he said. But making choices transparent may allow for feedback ahead of rollout, avoiding confusion and mistrust created by an uneven launch of immunizations, Dr. Parker said.

 

See the challenges among the different states here in the U.S., plus in other countries around the world??  If it is not simple, clear and easy on phase one with front-line health workers and those in nursing homes, wait till the "BATTLES" ramp up over the definitions as to which "essential workers" should be first in line versus being placed farther back.  

 

Just think of the challenges here the U.S. where we have tens of millions of doses being made now and being prepared for shipment during the next few months??  THEN, by contrast, for the rest of the world, where will cruise lines fit on the priority lists for obtaining vaccines for their workers and staff who come from various Asian, etc., countries?  Many, many questions!!!  And, since the cruise lines are not exactly based in major countries such as the U.S., UK, Australia, etc, from what "priority line" will they access for their several hundred thousand staff members to gain these vaccines??  Am I wrong or missing something?

 

AGE clearly is the number one factor in deaths in the U.S. from Covid.  From the CDC website as of today since January 2020, 32.7% of those who have died are age 85+.  For those age 75+, 59.9% have died Covid-related.  For those age 65+, 80.7% have died from Covid-related. Clearly, the top, highest target should be for those older and those with more significant health risks.

For complete CDC data, see:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics 

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-confront-tensions-over-who-gets-first-covid-19-vaccines-11608645610?mod=hp_lead_pos10

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 36,970 views.

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14 hours ago, silkismom said:

And then, what really turns my screws, AOC was (I read) one of the first, neither age or essential in any form. Off my speakers box.

 

She said she decided to get the vaccine live on Instagram last Friday to counteract the effects of many Republicans' efforts to undermine faith in public health measures:

 

"Gee, maybe if the GOP hadn’t spent so much time undermining public faith in science, masks,& COVID itself, I wouldn’t have to weigh the potential misinfo consequences of what wld happen if leaders urged ppl to take a new vaccine that we weren’t taking ourselves!"

 

I'm not trying to make this a political discussion, just answering the question which was asked. Just like Pence, Biden, Fauci and other top public officials getting the vaccine in orchestrated televised events, the goal is convincing the public that the vaccine is safe to get. Political officials who say "it's safe, get it" but don't do so themselves open questions of mistrust. I don't have a problem with this; if a few hundred vaccines go to public officials early and it gets  millions of people to decide to line up for it as it becomes available, that's a good thing for all of us. The vaccine isn't a fail safe for not getting the disease, so life doesn't go back to normal for any of us until the vast majority of people get vaccinated. 

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Thanks Randy. I agree.

 

In addition,, VA staff and facilities are available for backup in case the civilian health care system is overwhelmed by a catastrophe (our so-called fourth mission). But we are busy too. We just opened an extra ward at our hospital, and we are pulling primary care doctors who have prior hospital experience to care for overflow patients.

 

There isn't a glut of extra staff/space to take civilian patients in addition to our own, though we will try to do so if asked.

 

We are chronically understaffed and this pandemic has exposed that quite starkly. We are tired and burned out too. No health care system can afford to staff for 100% capacity, let alone staff for times when capacity exceeds that. And that's what we are seeing here. It's going to be an ugly winter.

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For Randy47 and Jpalbny 

 

Thank you for taking the time to educate me. Thank you for your service and the information you provided.  I should have asked my best friend here who was a Lt.Col in the reserves for 20 years what the situation was before I opened my mouth.  This says loudly to me that we as a country need to devote an extreme amount of additional resources to veteran's affairs.  It is a travesty that this population is underserved.  Thank you again.  

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4 hours ago, chrism23 said:

Terry, Great Post.  In it you managed to identify and sum up the three major challenges remaining in rolling out the vaccine program.  First is age and who is an essential worker.   And here in the US the disputes that are arising over who has what place in line, I feel, are going to create problems, and hence delays, for the roll out.  The last think we need is to slow the program down because of these types of parochial issues.  So Terry, well done in summarizing all of this issues.

 

Appreciate these these nice comments and kind follow-up from our West Hartford, Conn., friend.  Not sure that i agree that decisions (to be made by Governors and state officials) are merely "parochial" questions.  Lots of factors and serious questions involved.  In Florida, the Governor there is saying that those older, 65+ in age, should be the next highest priority group.  Politically and medically, there are good reasons for pushing that priority.  BUT, there are other high priorities, too!!!  Not easy or simple!!!  Plus, getting it done and accomplished takes time, organization, communications, etc.  The good news is that there are now TWO approved vaccines being shipped out and used.  Plus, agreement for another 100 million doses from Pfizer.  See more below.  

 

Excellent added follow-up from Randy and J.P.  Good to gain these added, front-line backgrounds from those with important "front-line" experiences.  Great sharing!!!  Keep it up. 

 

From the New York Times this morning, they had this headline: “U.S. and Pfizer Reach Deal to Bolster American Vaccine Supply” with these highlights: “The new agreement means the companies will supply the United States with a total of 200 million doses, enough to vaccinate 100 million Americans. The additional shots will cost $1.95 billion, the companies said.  The agreement, announced Wednesday, would help the United States at least partly offset a looming vaccine shortage that could leave millions of adult Americans uncovered in the first half of 2021. So far, only two pharmaceutical companies — Pfizer and Moderna — have won federal authorization for emergency distribution of Covid-19 vaccines, and most of what they are capable of producing for the next six months has already been allocated through contracts with the United States and other governments.”

 

That NY Times story also covers about "Frustration rises at Britain’s ports over clearing a logjam of thousands of trucks."  Clearly in the UK and for other parts of Europe, things are going in the wrong direction.  For those in the UK, any insights to share from your part of the world? As noted, we have a long way to go with these battles.  Resuming of "normal" sailing is still many months off into the future.   

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12/23/world/covid-updates-coronavirus

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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In other "news", Silversea put out earlier this week a media release with this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group announces $40M 'Pay It Forward' program to support its travel advisors” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group  is announcing plans to launch 'Pay It Forward'  to support its travel advisors as they look to rebuild their businesses after a challenging 2020.  The program makes a $40 million pool of funds available to qualifying travel advisors, who can apply for three-year, interest-free loans of up to $250,000 to keep their businesses focused on a return to growth at a time when the pandemic shows increasing prospects for coming under control.”

 

Clearly, Silversea and Royal Caribbean want travel agents to pitch and push very hard to sign up future business . . . AND AID RCL's CASH FLOW!!!

 

Also saw this week, a special push to get people to book NOW and then pay up 100% when so much is still unknown and uncertain.  Personally, my brain says it is fiscally smart to not put down too much money in a deposit and/or to pay up in full when the long-term financial and medical questions are so significant and many.  

 

Am I being too "conservative" with my money?  Too careful?  Not trusting a large, off-shore corporation with billions of dollars in debt?  Reactions?  What's right or wrong?  Smart or savvy?

 

Full media release at:

www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-caribbean-group-announces-40m-pay-it-forward-program-to-support-its-travel-advisors-301196826.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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From the Silversea website this week, here is their new pitch . . . pay up, NOW, in full and save 20%.  Sound good?  Safe and secure?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

1430715277_ScreenShot2020-12-23at11_38_20AM.thumb.png.0995ec778d279df6d769a31c06132ba8.png

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From the New York Times Travel Section this morning, they had this headline: “The Endless Debate: Cancel or Rebook?" with this sub-headline: "Would-be travelers this year have spent hours on hold, learning the ins and outs of refund policies.”

 

Here are some of the story highlights: “Travel companies have traditionally been able to predict busy and quiet periods. Not so in this year. Since March, waves of cancellations have reverberated — sometimes with little notice — because of rising infection rates, travel restrictions and state and local rules. 'There were cancellations in the beginning — March and April were huge,' said Hana Pevny, who owns the Waldo Emerson Inn, a boutique inn in Kennebunkport, Maine. 'Then in May and June, people who had already made summer plans realized they couldn’t execute on them. And now, with Covid cases rising again, it’s like I was fully booked for Christmas one day and had to process $3,000 in cancellations the next.'  From January to October, the 11 largest United States airlines issued $11.75 billion in cash refunds, according to Airlines for America, a trade group. That’s an 86 percent year-over-year increase from the $6.3 billion issued in 2019.”

 

Here are more story details: "For Wendy Patrick, a prosecutor (and seasoned cruiser) who lives in San Diego, those canceled sailings presented not a loss, but an opportunity.  When a Princess Cruises voyage in October was canceled, Ms. Patrick rebooked using a special offer. Among its perks: Princess matched her deposit in the form of a future cruise credit, industry 'currency' that can be applied toward the balance of the fare, onboard items or future sailings.  Because cruise cancellation policies are more flexible than ever, thanks to the pandemic, Ms. Patrick sees little downside in having several sailings on the horizon for next year.  'If you don’t grab cabins while they are hot, you will be left out on the dock — as the ships will be full in no time,' she said. 'We want to go anchors-away the second we can get that vaccine.' "

 

It is great that Ms. Patrick is ready to travel so quickly after getting the vaccine.  But for me and my wife, we want more details as to how long is required for this vaccine to be totally effective and how long its protections will extend.  Reasonable questions?  Any solid answer, yet, from the science and medical experts?

 

 Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/travel/virus-travel-cancellations-refunds.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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We rebooked our cruise and holiday to Alaska from 2020 to 2021, and have now completely moved everything to 2022. So far only one excursion company in Seattle has not replied to me this year (out of 13 separate suppliers) - about £50 each potentially lost. But I will continue to chase them in January!

 

Of course we could lose lots if SS folds, but I sincerely trust that will not be the case.

 

PS I was in a long queue today outside our local supermarket to buy Christmas food. I hope after Christmas things will get back to some normality as the lorry drivers get across the Channel!

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I really dont want to be bothered with rebooking and doing all this stuff especially in the Christmas weekend. I would rather not a book  anything at all. In my opinion its better to stay of for a while and than make a single purchase of the best cruise available when things will seem to be getting better

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Hi Terry, I saw this article on line today.  It goes back to The Grand Princess cruise back

in February......it concerns a few folks but is mostly about a couple from Texas............

 

'We called it Voyage of the Damned': Days of despair on the Grand Princess (msn.com)

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13 minutes ago, QueSeraSera said:

Wow, so sad, but thanks for sharing.

I know, it sure does seem like eons ago since that happened..........I am guessing most of us

were following the stories of the ships that were "stuck" at sea.  

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1 minute ago, Lois R said:

I know, it sure does seem like eons ago since that happened..........I am guessing most of us

were following the stories of the ships that were "stuck" at sea.  


It seems so long ago...   Never ever in my worst nightmares did I think we would be where we are today.   I remember my late March annual physical and the discussion with my doctor.   He was thinking it would all pass by late June, I was saying late July.  Boy we were wrong.   

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6 hours ago, Randyk47 said:


It seems so long ago...   Never ever in my worst nightmares did I think we would be where we are today.   I remember my late March annual physical and the discussion with my doctor.   He was thinking it would all pass by late June, I was saying late July.  Boy we were wrong.   

 

Randy,

 

And if the reports out of the UK on BBC tonight hold up, the new South Africa variant (they’re using variant to describe a new version of the virus that has a collection of mutations) is both more infectious for all and more serious to younger patients. We should know soon (hmmm, do I believe that?) if the vaccines are effective against the two new variants, or if this situation will go on a lot longer that all of us thought possible.

 

Not knowing the intricacies of financing the cruise industry, one really does have to wonder how long they can hold out? In speaking with crew from one of the majors, we heard that corporate had put out feelers for who would come back. Crew generally indicate they’ll wait to be safely vaccinated before they’ll come back, regardless of dire financial situations at home.

 

With these two new variants hitting the news, and the escalation of infection rates worldwide, one has to wonder what timeframe is realistic? Hopefully  the news will be good, when all is said and done I think we’re all ready for a new year, with a much happier prognosis for our collective health.

 

Doc Ruth

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12 hours ago, Randyk47 said:


It seems so long ago...   Never ever in my worst nightmares did I think we would be where we are today.   I remember my late March annual physical and the discussion with my doctor.   He was thinking it would all pass by late June, I was saying late July.  Boy we were wrong.   

Hi Randy......good morning, you are so right.  We were all wrong☹️ and even though we have

multiple vaccines now it seems we are still very far away from whatever we will consider 

"normal".   It is almost like 2020 was a nightmare year and we still have not woken up.😲

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https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-alerts/421156/brazil-authorities-ban-direct-flights-from-uk-effective-dec-25-update-22

 

Authorities in Brazil have banned all flights originating in or transiting through the UK effective Dec. 25. Officials stated that the measure is due to the spread of a variant strain of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected in the UK. In addition, all foreign travelers who have been in the UK in the preceding 14 days will be barred from boarding Brazil-bound flights. It is unclear how long the measures will be in place.

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7 hours ago, docruth said:

 

Randy,

 

And if the reports out of the UK on BBC tonight hold up, the new South Africa variant (they’re using variant to describe a new version of the virus that has a collection of mutations) is both more infectious for all and more serious to younger patients. We should know soon (hmmm, do I believe that?) if the vaccines are effective against the two new variants, or if this situation will go on a lot longer that all of us thought possible.

 

Not knowing the intricacies of financing the cruise industry, one really does have to wonder how long they can hold out? In speaking with crew from one of the majors, we heard that corporate had put out feelers for who would come back. Crew generally indicate they’ll wait to be safely vaccinated before they’ll come back, regardless of dire financial situations at home.

 

With these two new variants hitting the news, and the escalation of infection rates worldwide, one has to wonder what timeframe is realistic? Hopefully  the news will be good, when all is said and done I think we’re all ready for a new year, with a much happier prognosis for our collective health.

 

Doc Ruth


Other than the national news I haven’t heard anything about the variants hitting locally.   That said our local cases are starting to consistently run around 1,600+ new cases a day whereas two to three weeks ago we were running 500 +/- new cases a day.   Our local numbers are well above the initial outbreak numbers but the local authorities have not gone back to the closures and other restrictions they put in place in the spring.   I actually think, maybe hopefully, that they will put more restrictions in place after Christmas.   The local Air Force and Army bases have already put out a notice that they will go to more restrictions after Christmas and I expect they coordinated that with local city and county authorities.

 

As for the variants and the available vaccines I’m in the wait and watch mode.   I have read that at least the British, and probably others,  are running tests as we speak to see if the vaccines are still viable against the variants.   Some think they will be as the variants make the virus more contagious but the RNA of the underlying virus is basically the same.   I don’t think there has been any announcement one way or the other.   Fingers crossed.


I too have no idea how much longer many of the travel and leisure businesses can last.  I say travel and leisure as the pandemic is impacting a lot more than just the cruise lines.  As I mentioned in another post my son lives in Hawaii on Kauai and with a mandatory 14-day quarantine the island is basically closed off from all outsiders.   There is some thought, maybe nothing more than rumors at this time, that a number of the island’s resorts and hotels are already closed and will not survive.  The notion or possibility that the variants of Covid may have gotten ahead of the vaccines creates the unthinkable.    

 

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Great additional posts, comments and follow-ups from Randy, iMarco46, Doc Ruth, brimary, worldtraveller99, rogers88, Lois and QueSeraSera.  Keep up the great sharing!!  Much happening, but the forward re-opening path seems as distant as what existed four to six months ago.  Am I missing something?  The vaccines have been approved, but it is going to take many months for people in the U.S., UK, etc., to become "real" with such established, wide-spread medical protections.  Then, as we desired to travel and sail, when will the vaccines become available and effective for the staff, people in the distant countries we seek to explore, etc.?  Many more questions and unknowns!!!  Any clear answers and an understandable future cruising timetable? 

 

I have not heard anything lately as when, if and how the cruising lines will do their "demonstration" sailings to nowhere" as a way to prove to the CDC that their new practices and protection will work and be effective.  

 

From the New York Times yesterday, they had this headline: “U.K. Increasingly Isolated as U.S. Restricts Travel" with this sub-headline: "America’s requirement that passengers coming from Britain provide negative coronavirus tests is just the latest woe to strike the country this Christmas period.”

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “It was one more reminder, delivered before dawn on Christmas morning, that Britain is not only an island nation, but one that finds itself increasingly alone.  A decision by the United States to require all airline passengers arriving from Britain to test negative for the coronavirus within 72 hours of their departure, starting on Monday, was not so much a shock as it was another bitter pill in a somber holiday season.  There is the fast spread of a coronavirus variant feared to be more contagious. Dozens of nations have barred travelers from Britain from entering. Expanded lockdowns in the country will include 48 million people by Saturday. And thousands of trucks remain stranded along England’s coast even after France lifted a brief border blockade imposed over virus concerns.  Adding to the volatility was a last-minute Brexit deal with the European Union, which kept Britain from crashing out of the bloc without an agreement.”

 

Right or wrong?  Any additional background, insights, etc., from those in the UK or Europe?

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/25/world/europe/covid-19-uk-travel-us.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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I think Terry that we are all enjoying our lock-down Christmas in our family bubble and will not worry about any of this until the New Year! I am sure that in the end it will not make that much difference to most people - we will all get vaccinated, and new businesses (a lot more digital) will rise up where old ones had retired.

 

Will we all be poorer - yes. Will we have to queue for hours at airports and ports - yes. Is it a pain - yes, but we will get used to it. Food - more expensive - will continue to arrive, and we will live with it. I remember when I first went to stay with my cousins in NJ in 1980 - how my friend and I fell on their fresh fruit! So maybe we will be there again!

 

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We in the UK should have banned all incoming travel when the Pandemic took hold but Government too slow to react.No surprise at the French reaction it is the norm for them to take the opposite opinion to the UK on all matters.Nothing new and who cares but we must ensure we stop them fishing in our waters ever again.The comments are sad but reflective of today’s World and even more disappointing when our greatest friends in the USA start putting restrictions on UK persons entering your country restriction free.Lets hope it all resolves quickly in 2021 so that all the personnel in the Cruise industry can go back to work and start earning again providing the public throughout the World with the excellent product we have missed so much.Happy 2021 to all on this Board!

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Re: the travel restrictions because of the new virus variant - bolting horses and stable doors come to mind.

Remember when all flights from China were cancelled? That worked well, didn't it.

Not making any sort of political point, just trying to apply logic to the science as we currently understand it.

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I don’t know if anybody knows exactly how the variant(s) could translate into numbers.   What it comes down to is that at least one or more of the variants make the virus easier to catch.   Generally speaking the human body has pretty good defenses against most viruses, bacteria, etc., and we come in contact with those on a fairly regular basis with little to no issue.   With viruses they generally talk about viral load, the lower the load the better able for the body’s normal defenses to fend the virus off.   There’s a chance that many more of us have been technically exposed to Covid than have actually gotten sick because the viral load was too low to actually make us sick.  At least one of the variants has an extra RNA string that more easily defeats our normal defenses, in other words we can catch Covid with a lower viral load which translates into the virus being more contagious.  The “jury” is still out on whether or not the vaccines already available and those close to being available will be effective.   

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On 12/26/2020 at 11:16 AM, worldtraveller99 said:

I think Terry that we are all enjoying our lock-down Christmas in our family bubble and will not worry about any of this until the New Year! I am sure that in the end it will not make that much difference to most people - we will all get vaccinated, and new businesses (a lot more digital) will rise up where old ones had retired.  Will we all be poorer - yes. Will we have to queue for hours at airports and ports - yes. Is it a pain - yes, but we will get used to it

 

Very good insights above from our London friend, plus appreciate the other good comments and various follow-ups.  Regarding the link to the CNN vaccine item, that was an "opinion" piece/column.  Maybe it will be correct?  Maybe not?  Possibly somewhere in between??  Lots of guessing, hoping and speculation as to what will or will not happen during the coming months.  Fortunately, we do not have any deposits and/or payments in the hands of the cruise lines, airlines, etc.  Just waiting and hoping for when things will be safe, reasonable, fun, interesting and exciting to be traveling again.   

 

Special point by jollyjones in saying: "just trying to apply logic to the science as we currently understand it."    YES, it does get confusing as to the curious mix of "logic", science, etc.  It is complex as to what ALL of this means and will yield in the next few months.  The more we know, then additional questions arise.  Right?

 

From two West Coast newspapers two days ago, they had this headline: “Cruise ships return to West Coast after long absence because of COVID — but no passengers allowed yet with these highlights: “Barred from sailing for the last nine months because of the pandemic, several cruise ships are making their way to San Diego this month, but don’t expect to see thousands of passengers boarding or disembarking from the ocean liners. The extended visit by the cruise ships belonging to Seattle-based Holland America is the first step toward getting certified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the time when they will be able to begin welcoming passengers aboard next year. Among other things, the company has its eye on the 2021 Seattle-Alaska cruise season, which in normal years is big business from May to September.  For now, it’s not likely San Diego will see cruise lines resuming voyages until at least the spring, but even then it remains uncertain how many ships that normally sail out of the port will have met all the federal requirements.  The first of the four Holland America ships — the Koningsdam — arrived at the B Street Pier on Wednesday. Because the vessels had not previously been in U.S. waters, they are taking that step now in order to begin laboratory testing of crew members on board.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/cruise-ships-return-to-west-coast-after-long-absence-because-of-covid-but-no-passengers-allowed-yet/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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