Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 hour ago, phoenix_dream said:

I guess we do need to look at the bright side sometimes.  At the same time, even at a million doses per day, it will take close to a year to get everyone fully vaccinated.  And while we have far more vaccinations than many other countries, we also have significantly higher numbers of infections and deaths.  It is very hard to be optimistic when, for example, in my state they are saying it could take 12 weeks to vaccinate the group starting next week, and in my own county they are saying the group could take 6 months to vaccinate!  I don't know who to believe and it is very stressful.

 

I do completely share your thanks and sincere appreciation to everyone working so very hard to get the vaccines out to everyone.  

Great comments.  The Defense Production Act really only works for producers located inside the US.  Syringes seem to be the main problem locally and most of those are manufactured outside the US.

The big difference will come with approvals of other vaccines for the US.  Vaccine deliveries are truly ramping up.  Phoenix Dream - suggest you look forward to sharply increased availability For vaccine.  Arizona currently could vaccinate some 50000 a day.   For Canada more Pfizer close to doubling their production.

Am laughing at the million dose a day rhetoric as the US was on track reach or surpass that level before the new administration.  In Arizona we are pretty much out of vaccine except for that saved for second doses.  Some locations no longer giving appointments for a second dose.  Some locations running out of vaccine.  The good news is people seem to be getting vaccinated in droves.

Wish Canada's Mr Ford best wishes.  He certainly has had lots of "interesting" press on CBC.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Arizona Wildcat

[Lastdance]

1 hour ago, phoenix_dream said:

Good point.  Again, not giving an opinion pro or con, but the recent administration was strongly accused of nationalism (the accusation is fact; whether you agree with is or not is opinion) which must be closely considered in how we go forward with this.  

 

I think the blame game is something that just holds us back, period.  This is a pandemic and we need to do everything possible to move forward.  Accusations are rampant and research, along with fact checking, are not strong enough to overtake opinions.  Hindsight is always 20/20, but even that is skewed.  Politics is a very, very dirty business and I am not defined by it, nor is my thinking. Thank goodness it is NOT part of Cruise Critic.  We all want to safely get back to cruising in the near future.  I have been doing my part and I am ready to do whatever I can to move forward.  I was able to get three people in the 70's and 80's vaccinated by my MDVIP doctor.  They were elated and it took them each under five minutes with a waiting time of fifteen(reaction protocol)and they never had to leave their cars.  Every small thing we can do helps this process...

Edited January 24, 2021 by Lastdance

[Harrylinden]

Getting my first vaccine shot tomorrow!  Yea  🙂

[Homosassa]

6 hours ago, D C said:

So seasonal Florida residents with homes in FL qualify for the vaccine. 

Not necessarily.

Read the list of documents and timeframes for those that do not have the IDs listed in one and two. Note that the documents need a Florida residential address.

 

I know that when we had a second home in the Keys before retirement, all the documents in C,D and E would have been sent to our Maryland address. 

 

The utilities were on year round so that Category B also would not apply. 

[D C]

19 hours ago, Porky55 said:

To the virologists / epidemiologists among us : 

can you please explain the Governments, (ours in particular) continuous reference to these “viral fragments” 

“Routine wastewater testing has returned a positive result for viral fragments of COVID-19 in sewage at the treatment plant”

 

The fragments’ test Positive for Covid but are “almost certainly from people who HAD Covid and are shedding fragments” 

And what is the difference between PCR testing and this type of testing?

BTW - what our Govt wants is for people in the actual treatment plant location to race off and get tested for C19. Helps their numbers and enables continued restrictions.

I'm STILL waiting for them to come clean out my septic tank as part of this study. 

[hcat]

30 minutes ago, Homosassa said:

Not necessarily.

Read the list of documents and timeframes for those that do not have the IDs listed in one and two. Note that the documents need a Florida residential address.

 

I know that when we had a second home in the Keys before retirement, all the documents in C,D and E would have been sent to our Maryland address. 

 

The utilities were on year round so that Category B also would not apply. 

 

. Bills can be sent elsewhere but often note the property service address.  I think seasonal residents should be able to scrape together  enough proof.... a lease, local cable bill, etc. Can't wait to get our next promised shot before  the fed gov has a chance to  mess  with things !

[hcat]

We have been reading news reports in some states  about  special  vaccination events which essentially  let  certain folks " jump" the line.  Probably not fair but anything to get the task done is better than inertia!

 

I am praying the vaccines do what they seem to promise..I think we are all guinea pigs at this point.

Edited January 24, 2021 by hcat

[zitsky]

8 minutes ago, hcat said:

 

. Bills can be sent elsewhere but often note the property service address.  I think seasonal residents should be able to scrape together  enough proof.... a lease, local cable bill, etc. Can't wait to get our next promised shot before  the fed gov has a chance to  mess  with things !

 

Maybe the federal government improves things if they get more people vaccinated?

[Arizona Wildcat]

26 minutes ago, hcat said:

We have been reading news reports in some states  about  special  vaccination events which essentially  let  certain folks " jump" the line.  Probably not fair but anything to get the task done is better than inertia!

 

I am praying the vaccines do what they seem to promise..I think we are all guinea pigs at this point.

In Maricopa County (Phoenix metro) people were advised that if there was vaccine left after all with appointments were vaccinated people could be first come first served.  They also late in the day vaccinated others in a vehicle without an appointment.  

Reasoning was better to use the vaccine than throw it out.  The short shelf life of Pfizer vaccine is making things challenging.

[neilrr]

Hi All!!! Good news😁 -- Johnson and Johnson "single" dose vaccine on the horizon for approval in early/mid February... It also does not require freezing cold temperatures..  Bad news 😂 - Merck decided to halt testing/production of their vaccine this morning, as it did not have the effectiveness they wanted.  

 

The J &J vaccine will be a game changer - we hope...😊

 

Stay safe and healthy...

[zitsky]

Has J&J been tested against variants?

[deadzone1003]

22 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Great comments.  The Defense Production Act really only works for producers located inside the US.  Syringes seem to be the main problem locally and most of those are manufactured outside the US.

The big difference will come with approvals of other vaccines for the US.  Vaccine deliveries are truly ramping up.  Phoenix Dream - suggest you look forward to sharply increased availability For vaccine.  Arizona currently could vaccinate some 50000 a day.   For Canada more Pfizer close to doubling their production.

Am laughing at the million dose a day rhetoric as the US was on track reach or surpass that level before the new administration.  In Arizona we are pretty much out of vaccine except for that saved for second doses.  Some locations no longer giving appointments for a second dose.  Some locations running out of vaccine.  The good news is people seem to be getting vaccinated in droves.

Wish Canada's Mr Ford best wishes.  He certainly has had lots of "interesting" press on CBC.

Right now by contractural obligations, Moderna is supposed to supply 100,000,000 by the end of March and another 100,000,000 by the end of June.  Pfizer has the same numbers.  J&J is planning to have 60,000,000 to 100,000,000 by the end of April, again their contractural obligations to the USA.  By the middle of summer (maybe July), we would have enough vaccines for 90% of our population.  I doubt we will reach that number because of anti-vaxxers and people who are seeing how well the vaccines work before taking it.  Problem is too many people want it now and blame poor planning.  If those mRNA were at 50% efficacy, maybe they wouldn't be in a great rush.  The real problem was those mRNA had great efficacy numbers and they couldn't really meet the ensuing demand because all immediate production has been sold.  Are we going to confiscate vaccines that has already been sold to other countries?   Great for our image. 

[grandgeezer]

18 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

In Maricopa County (Phoenix metro) people were advised that if there was vaccine left after all with appointments were vaccinated people could be first come first served.  They also late in the day vaccinated others in a vehicle without an appointment.  

Reasoning was better to use the vaccine than throw it out.  The short shelf life of Pfizer vaccine is making things challenging.

The Cardinals football stadium is giving vaccines 24/7, seven days a week, and they are booked through the whole month of February. I doubt if they'll run out and have to throw vaccine away. My neighbor was there last Thursday night for a 2am appointment and it was backed up so far it took him almost an hour past his time to get it.

[D C]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

The Cardinals football stadium is giving vaccines 24/7, seven days a week, and they are booked through the whole month of February. I doubt if they'll run out and have to throw vaccine away. My neighbor was there last Thursday night for a 2am appointment and it was backed up so far it took him almost an hour past his time to get it.

That's the way to do it! 

[D C]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

Right now by contractural obligations, Moderna is supposed to supply 100,000,000 by the end of March and another 100,000,000 by the end of June.  Pfizer has the same numbers.  J&J is planning to have 60,000,000 to 100,000,000 by the end of April, again their contractural obligations to the USA.  By the middle of summer (maybe July), we would have enough vaccines for 90% of our population.  I doubt we will reach that number because of anti-vaxxers and people who are seeing how well the vaccines work before taking it.  Problem is too many people want it now and blame poor planning.  If those mRNA were at 50% efficacy, maybe they wouldn't be in a great rush.  The real problem was those mRNA had great efficacy numbers and they couldn't really meet the ensuing demand because all immediate production has been sold.  Are we going to confiscate vaccines that has already been sold to other countries?   Great for our image. 

Doses, correct?  Just for the US?

So 200 million people-worth of vaccines by the end of March?   If that is the US, it's likely sufficient to vaccinate everyone who wants it, being nearly 2/3 of the total population.  With ~60 million people being under 15, and ~80 million under 20, it's enough for 80% of the adult population in the US.  Highly unlikely that 80% want the vaccine.

 

[mimbecky]

Interesting news....it appears California may be moving towards a more age based phasing for vaccines. 

 

"Moving forward, there will be a single statewide standard and movement through the tiers. The state will continue through 65+, health care workers, and prioritize emergency services, food and agriculture workers, teachers and school staff. From there, the state will transition to age-based eligibility, allowing California to scale up and down quickly, while ensuring vaccine goes to disproportionately impacted communities."

 

Currently, the next phase would be not be age based but would be transportation, manufacturing, homeless and incarcerated.

More information on the change and specifics tomorrow. This supposedly is in an effort to simplify.  Maybe other states will follow.  I will post after tomorrow's update.

[deadzone1003]

3 hours ago, D C said:

Doses, correct?  Just for the US?

So 200 million people-worth of vaccines by the end of March?   If that is the US, it's likely sufficient to vaccinate everyone who wants it, being nearly 2/3 of the total population.  With ~60 million people being under 15, and ~80 million under 20, it's enough for 80% of the adult population in the US.  Highly unlikely that 80% want the vaccine.

 

These are doses.  So, technically 100,000,000 people could be fully vaccinated from the 1st Quarter deliveries from Pfizer and Moderna (2 doses for full immunization),  but we don't know how many will be thrown out because of poor logistics by some states or I even heard that some have even increase their efficiency by giving it to 11 people from a 10 vaccine bottle.  But if J&J gets approved quickly which seems likely and if the efficacy is high enough (over 80%), then demand will shift to J&J mostly because of its one dosage requirement and milder side effects (early reports are indicating this, though this is not absolute).  Now most Americans over 65 may not have a choice if they want it early.  Pfizer is the one who could be trouble as it is pretty much limited to metropolitan areas.  J&J may be limited to rural areas and small towns, at first in order to fully utilized the mRNA vaccine.  I can't see many people having a choice of vaccine until Pfizer's vaccine are used up.  Their storage limitations makes it viable only in a very high demand situation which is pretty much limits it to metropolitan areas.  I think they are testing right now for vaccines for kids under 15.  They plan to have it ready by summer so the kids can get those shots before returning to school.  Those under 15 really don't need a vaccine except those with a comorbitity.  Kids have an immune system that is always on standby, attacking the virus as soon it enters their system while we adults have our immune system on sleep mode, allowing this virus to replicate in our bodies before attacking.  A vaccine is really training our immune system to attack a particular virus/germ as early as possible.  With the very low death rate among children, it seems likely their immune system usually prevails in its battle with covid-19.  However, because it is very likely that a vaccine will be required to board a cruise ship when cruising resumes, it is also likely that a vaccine will be required to return to school for most states.  Those states that already reopened their schools may not require it though they will probably say they would recommend it.  These are some of my grand predictions, my opinions.     

[hcat]

On 1/24/2021 at 6:05 PM, zitsky said:

 

Maybe the federal government improves things if they get more people vaccinated?

 

That would be great..just get the vaccines out to the states asap..no new levels of bureaucracy needed.

 

Some good news in Florida today...vaccinations will be given in all assisted living facilities that want it.  Hospitals and nursing homes already covered!  Despite early failures and glitches, seems things are able to move, if there is a supply coming in. Let's hope!

[zitsky]

2 hours ago, mimbecky said:

Interesting news....it appears California may be moving towards a more age based phasing for vaccines. 

 

"Moving forward, there will be a single statewide standard and movement through the tiers. The state will continue through 65+, health care workers, and prioritize emergency services, food and agriculture workers, teachers and school staff. From there, the state will transition to age-based eligibility, allowing California to scale up and down quickly, while ensuring vaccine goes to disproportionately impacted communities."

 

Currently, the next phase would be not be age based but would be transportation, manufacturing, homeless and incarcerated.

More information on the change and specifics tomorrow. This supposedly is in an effort to simplify.  Maybe other states will follow.  I will post after tomorrow's update.

 

How does age based affect impacted communities? 

[D C]

3 hours ago, mimbecky said:

Interesting news....it appears California may be moving towards a more age based phasing for vaccines. 

 

"Moving forward, there will be a single statewide standard and movement through the tiers. The state will continue through 65+, health care workers, and prioritize emergency services, food and agriculture workers, teachers and school staff. From there, the state will transition to age-based eligibility, allowing California to scale up and down quickly, while ensuring vaccine goes to disproportionately impacted communities."

 

Currently, the next phase would be not be age based but would be transportation, manufacturing, homeless and incarcerated.

More information on the change and specifics tomorrow. This supposedly is in an effort to simplify.  Maybe other states will follow.  I will post after tomorrow's update.

So those who are actually vulnerable will be "eligible" in name only and will sit on the sidelines while younger, less at-risk people cut to the front.   It really will be interesting to see how hospitalizations and deaths drop in various states with various prioritizations.

[D C]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

These are doses.  So, technically 100,000,000 people could be fully vaccinated from the 1st Quarter deliveries from Pfizer and Moderna (2 doses for full immunization),  but we don't know how many will be thrown out because of poor logistics by some states or I even heard that some have even increase their efficiency by giving it to 11 people from a 10 vaccine bottle.  But if J&J gets approved quickly which seems likely and if the efficacy is high enough (over 80%), then demand will shift to J&J mostly because of its one dosage requirement and milder side effects (early reports are indicating this, though this is not absolute).  Now most Americans over 65 may not have a choice if they want it early.  Pfizer is the one who could be trouble as it is pretty much limited to metropolitan areas.  J&J may be limited to rural areas and small towns, at first in order to fully utilized the mRNA vaccine.  I can't see many people having a choice of vaccine until Pfizer's vaccine are used up.  Their storage limitations makes it viable only in a very high demand situation which is pretty much limits it to metropolitan areas.  I think they are testing right now for vaccines for kids under 15.  They plan to have it ready by summer so the kids can get those shots before returning to school.  Those under 15 really don't need a vaccine except those with a comorbitity.  Kids have an immune system that is always on standby, attacking the virus as soon it enters their system while we adults have our immune system on sleep mode, allowing this virus to replicate in our bodies before attacking.  A vaccine is really training our immune system to attack a particular virus/germ as early as possible.  With the very low death rate among children, it seems likely their immune system usually prevails in its battle with covid-19.  However, because it is very likely that a vaccine will be required to board a cruise ship when cruising resumes, it is also likely that a vaccine will be required to return to school for most states.  Those states that already reopened their schools may not require it though they will probably say they would recommend it.  These are some of my grand predictions, my opinions.     

Bottom line is that in just a few months, the US will have more vaccines than can be reasonably expected to be administered.  

[Ken the cruiser]

18 minutes ago, D C said:

Bottom line is that in just a few months, the US will have more vaccines than can be reasonably expected to be administered.  

That would be nice. Hope you're right.

[deadzone1003]

2 minutes ago, D C said:

Bottom line is that in just a few months, the US will have more vaccines than can be reasonably expected to be administered.  

Quite possible, but that may not occur until April when J&J is expected to distribute their vaccine.  Sometime in June we may reach a point where we will have too many vaccines than there are willing takers.  I think too many people are mistaking incompetence with a learning curve.  States are slowly learning that bureaucratic rules do not work very well with a product with a delicate shelf life.  They adapt or they may have to throw away the vaccine which would make them look totally incompetent.  I think the states that funnel the vaccines through established channels such as hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies are probably having an easier time than those who do not utilized them as much.  They are up to about 1,000,000 vaccination shots a day now nationwide and I could only see it go up as everyone gets more comfortable with the procedures.  They need to go up to past 1.7 million shots a day else storage issues may become a problem.  So the outlook is not as bleak as it looks unless you are the type who wants it yesterday. 

[hcat]

After  the vaccine has been widely administered, will  we possibly need  annual boosters?  Like the flu vaccine which is modifed each time, rather than the polio vaccine which seems not to need it. I expect the experts will let us know.

 

At some point hopefully  pharmacies, hosp facilities and drs could take this over if bosters are in fact needed. If we started with Moderna for first and second shots, winder if we will we always need to take that same one in the future ?  

 

Hope folks are having good luck with appts!

[TeeRick]

Sorry I posted this in the Saga cruises thread by mistake so repeating it here too.

 

J&J earnings call today. J&J Chief Financial Officer Joseph Wolk told CNBC on Tuesday the company expects the phase three trial data to be “robust.” Also indications are the data will be released possibly by next week.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/johnson-johnson-jnj-earnings-q4-2020.html

Edited January 26, 2021 by TeeRick