What happens if there's no vaccine?

[Mary229]

I volunteered with NIH.  Hey, I am happy to test my immune system.  In the course of my business I have had some pretty nasty bugs over the years that I effectively fought off.  Yes, I like cruising but what I like more is leading a full life in the company of my fellow humans. Sitting at home fearful of what is next is not a life worth living

[Indianadaytripper]

I cannot see a world cruise as we’ve known it without a vaccine or a drug that will swiftly kill or control  the virus while onboard. Just the age demographics for a world cruise puts its passengers in jeopardy. Few have no health problems that would put them in a much younger age group health wise. Normal death is not uncommon. 
    Of course they could add refrigerator space , keep the cruise churning and see who’s immune at the end of the voyage. Cruise companies will do most anything to get passengers back onboard again. Just my thoughts 

[lucymorgan]

14 hours ago, Sir PMP said:

There has never been a vaccine for HIV, but we pills to keep it under control, that will happen here too, maybe no vaccine, but therapeutics to keep you from getting it or get you back healthy again in a few days.

I think the differences with this virus are:

- it appears to be airborne - not exchanged by bodily fluid.  

- science has not yet determined exactly how it is spread

- it appears to be able to be spread via surfaces.

There was a lot of hysteria when HIV was first discovered too.  However, the mechanism of spread seems to make it a bit different to HIV so there is potentially less personal choice about how to protect yourself - other than staying home.  

 

HIV typically didn't result in death within a few weeks either. 

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

At what cost, though?  I hope you are just stirring the pot and are not serious.

 

I mean, we could also say that the "way forward" to deal with our increasing population is to set up firing squads for anyone over 70.  Or maybe forced sterilization.

 

I, for one, am going to hold out hope for a better solution than one that would lead to such excess mortality. 

What cost?  Perhaps covid parties are the quickest and cheapest path forward?

What if 'hope' doesn't work?

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, Tampa Girl said:

 

That assumes that there will be herd immunity from this virus.  I don't believe that such  has been established.  There is no herd immunity from a cold, and this virus has some of the same characteristics.

Then there is no hope for a vaccine either.

A vaccine is just another way to achieve herd immunity.

[kazu]

2 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

What cost?  Perhaps covid parties are the quickest and cheapest path forward?

What if 'hope' doesn't work?

 

The “cost” is people’s lives and health.  That’s a pretty big cost IMO 

[Roz]

1 hour ago, voyageur9 said:

In the absence of a 100% vaccine and a HAL requirement that 100% of its passengers are vaccinated before being allowed on board, the stark reality remains that HAL's demographic, both in terms of age and the evident prevalence of pre-existing conditions probably make it the least likely of all Carnival brands to resume sailing soon.

 

 

 

I don't think any vaccine is 100% effective, and I don't think a Covid vaccine has to be 100% effective in order for us to safely resume cruising.  

[RocketMan275]

6 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

The “cost” is people’s lives and health.  That’s a pretty big cost IMO 

Of course it is a big cost but it still might be the cheapest cost.

One cannot negotiate costs with a virus.  

We need to consider what options there might be if there is no vaccine.

Some would like to believe that all we  have to do is wear masks, practice social distance, and all the other protocols until there is an effective vaccine.  Those are not long term solutions.  People will only put up with those for a limited time.  We may be approaching that limit.  So, what's Plan B?

Edited July 12, 2020 by RocketMan275

[Horizon chaser 1957]

5 hours ago, iancal said:

We really  do not understand all the knashing of teeth and wailing that has gone on.   Sure people are disappointed but  It is what it is.  Get over it, and move forward. 

 

The rest of the world has much larger problems than not being able to take a cruise.

 

 

Yes, it is amazing how many of the people who post on a cruise related chat board seem to talk about taking a cruise.🤔

[voyageur9]

4 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

I don't think any vaccine is 100% effective, and I don't think a Covid vaccine has to be 100% effective in order for us to safely resume cruising.  

Agreed. And the fact remains that HAL's demographic means it will be among the last to safely resume. And "safely" may mean accepting a higher death rate on board, one tolerable by other cruisers and HAL's insurers.

[kazu]

10 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

Some would like to believe that all we  have to do is wear masks, practice social distance, and all the other protocols

 

Well, it seems to work quite well.  If the virus has no where to go to it will dissipate with time if EVERYONE co-operated.  

 

Take a look at the different countries in Asia and their results with the virus.  Some pretty amazing results in some of those countries utilizing the protocols recommended by scienctists.  

We will probably be wearing masks here for some time to come.  If that means my friends, neighbours or relatives don’t get ill then that’s good enough for me 😉 

[RocketMan275]

4 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

Well, it seems to work quite well.  If the virus has no where to go to it will dissipate with time if EVERYONE co-operated.  

 

Take a look at the different countries in Asia and their results with the virus.  Some pretty amazing results in some of those countries utilizing the protocols recommended by scienctists.  

We will probably be wearing masks here for some time to come.  If that means my friends, neighbours or relatives don’t get ill then that’s good enough for me 😉 

Perhaps but don't overlook reports of people reacting violently to these mask edicts.  For example, a report today that a bus driver was beaten to death in France for insisting on people wearing masks.  There are limits and these protocols aren't free.

[cruisemom42]

24 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

 

Some would like to believe that all we  have to do is wear masks, practice social distance, and all the other protocols until there is an effective vaccine.  Those are not long term solutions.  People will only put up with those for a limited time.  We may be approaching that limit.  

 

Why?

 

What is the down side to wearing a mask? (I am not including the small minority who cannot medically wear one.)

 

It's a bit uncomfortable at times, yes. But then, so is wearing shoes. And yet we all manage to wear shoes in public.

 

[Indianadaytripper]

We will see in the near future what happens without a vaccine, with Europe opening up and still having several cases reported in the general public 

[Mud_Shark]

When West Nile virus neared our corner of the world, everyone around here bemoaned that it would spell the death of camping and wilderness experiences.  That proved not to be true.

 

When AIDS broke out in the 80s - people thought - that will be the death of public pools and contact sports.  Hmm.

 

Sometimes our fears get the best of us and it takes a while to fully assess the effects and transmission of a new "bug".  Give it time.  You may find that much of our current reaction and strategy is ignorance based.  As we come to better understand the virus, we may find ways to manage life with it still around.

 

Don  

[kelleherdl]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Yes. Unfortunately the particular news report you've cited isn't as clear as it should be. If you read it, you are almost left with the impression that the only reason herd immunity isn't being achieved in Spain is that not enough people have yet been exposed. The truth, if you read the original publication of the study in The Lancet is a bit different. In short (from a better-written summary):

 

"Immunity can be incomplete, it can be transitory, it can last for just a short time and then disappear," Raquel Yotti, the director of Spain's Carlos III Health Institute, which helped conduct the study, said. Other researchers said the study corroborated findings elsewhere that immunity to the virus might not be long-lasting in people who develop only mild or no symptoms.

 

 

Sorry.  This is politically correct double-speak by scientists.  I am not challenging that their speculation about incomplete immunity MAY be correct.  But without data the opposite may also be true, which the authors do not posit as a possible result. The authors need to state that transitory/incomplete immunity is common with all vaccinations.  We do get boosters for a reason.

Edited July 12, 2020 by kelleherdl

[RocketMan275]

30 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

What is the down side to wearing a mask? (I am not including the small minority who cannot medically wear one.)

 

It's a bit uncomfortable at times, yes. But then, so is wearing shoes. And yet we all manage to wear shoes in public.

The downside is a false sense of security.  Unless one wears the mask properly there is no upside.  

[Tudy]

I am debating about adding my two cents. I probably shouldn't, but find it impossible to resist.

 

I am not optimistic about a vaccine. As a nurse and researcher, I am troubled by the idea that people can test positive and not develop antibodies. I have 2 theories about this.

 

The first is that it will be very difficult to develop a vaccine if people do not develop antibodies. Those antibodies are what we are hoping to develop with the vaccine. If getting the disease doesn't create the antibodies, how do we do that?

 

Second, I realize that many differing tests have been rapidly brought to the public because of situational urgency. I believe that they may not have been adequately researched before they were released. I believe that they do show positive when detecting Covid 19, but I wonder if they show positive for ONLY Covid 19.

 

I believe our best hope is defining a better treatment regimen. We have made several advances in this area and more are coming. Secondly, I have read some articles that indicate that Covid 19 may be weakening in virulence. This would also be very good news, if indeed that does prove true.

 

I freely admit that I know just enough to be stupid, as is the case with most of the strongly opinionated among us. 🙂

[cruisemom42]

17 minutes ago, kelleherdl said:

The authors need to state that transitory/incomplete immunity is common with all vaccinations.  We do get boosters for a reason.

 

It is common with most vaccinations. However, not within a period of only a few weeks.

[Mary229]

@Tudy  I agree.  I think an effective treatment regimen is not only more likely but more desirable and predictable.   

[Mary229]

If you want to hear a serious discussion of this topic, where we are, where we are going I suggest listening to a reliable expert like Dr. Osterholm.  Not only is he well-credentialed he is regularly interviewed by all sides of the media and other scientist.  

 

Here is a link to his research team and their public discussions

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Yes. Unfortunately the particular news report you've cited isn't as clear as it should be. If you read it, you are almost left with the impression that the only reason herd immunity isn't being achieved in Spain is that not enough people have yet been exposed. The truth, if you read the original publication of the study in The Lancet is a bit different. In short (from a better-written summary):

 

"Immunity can be incomplete, it can be transitory, it can last for just a short time and then disappear," Raquel Yotti, the director of Spain's Carlos III Health Institute, which helped conduct the study, said. Other researchers said the study corroborated findings elsewhere that immunity to the virus might not be long-lasting in people who develop only mild or no symptoms.

 

So....if someone were to follow through on the extremely foolish idea of having COVID exposure parties, the only thing likely to be achieved would be illness and very short-term immunity in some (leaving them still vulnerable to future infection) or potentially serious disease leading to hospitalization and possible death in others.

 

Not a really great plan, IMHO.

 

 

I was under the impression after reading it that the main point was immunity did not last long and therefore it would be extremely difficult or even impossible to achieve herd immunity.

 

It did mention that the results could be different if the study was done in a place with more exposure, but I did not take that as the main point of the article.

[cruisemom42]

1 minute ago, ontheweb said:

I was under the impression after reading it that the main point was immunity did not last long and therefore it would be extremely difficult or even impossible to achieve herd immunity.

 

It did mention that the results could be different if the study was done in a place with more exposure, but I did not take that as the main point of the article.

 

Then you have read carefully. 

[ontheweb]

1 minute ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Then you have read carefully. 

I had actually heard of the results on the news, so I knew what to look for.

[rafinmd]

20 minutes ago, Tudy said:

believe our best hope is defining a better treatment regimen. We have made several advances in this area and more are coming. Secondly, I have read some articles that indicate that Covid 19 may be weakening in virulence. This would also be very good news, if indeed that does prove true.

Agree 100%.  To me far more promising than a vaccine.  Until that happens we need to make the most of common sense practical defenses.

 

Roy