What happens if there's no vaccine?

[cbr663]

17 hours ago, npcl said:

If there is no effective vaccines or therapeutics then COVID-19 will be around for a long time and there will be a lot of death and health impacts.  We are getting indications of reinfections.  One report indicated that the individuals second infection was worse than the first (my biggest fear is for COVID to behave like Dengue).  His first infection was minor and the second more serious. Still very preliminary, would like to see more information in an peer reviewed medical journal, but that will take time.  But still the hints are concerning.

 

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

 

Plus we are getting more information  about health effects, even where the cases are not fatal.

Physicians give first comprehensive review of COVID-19's effects outside the lung

 

Extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0968-3

 

So true, without effective therapy or vaccine it will be here for a while.  The sad reality is that nature's "survival of the fittest" will prevail.  And we will make the necessary adjustments in our lives, whatever they may be, or suffer the consequences.

[Despegue]

Any Developed Nation will offer a Covid19 vaccine for free or just a couple of Euro/ Dollar, probably refunded by the Social Security of that country.

During this Pandemic, we have quickly realised which countries are really developed and which ones only claim to be. 
 

Covid19 treatment , including hospitalisation and medication , and prevention HAS to be free or nearly free. That is the primary base for a recovery and long-term containment. 

[Mary229]

2 hours ago, Despegue said:

Any Developed Nation will offer a Covid19 vaccine for free or just a couple of Euro/ Dollar, probably refunded by the Social Security of that country.

During this Pandemic, we have quickly realised which countries are really developed and which ones only claim to be. 
 

Covid19 treatment , including hospitalisation and medication , and prevention HAS to be free or nearly free. That is the primary base for a recovery and long-term containment. 

In the US if a person does not have insurance, any person without insurance, receives free treatment.  Hospitals are given financial incentives to treat Covid patients.  Yes, during the polio epidemic polio vaccines were not only free they were administered at schools, churches and other places in the neighborhood and did not require a doctor's appointment.  As I mentioned earlier Johnson and Johnson has said they will give, totally free, 1 Billion vaccines whether it is their vaccine or someone else's.  I am sure there are other companies who have made pledges just that I am a shareholder of J&J and follow their news.   That level of donation for a multi-national corporation will not be a severe economic loss.  It will be tax deductible and they make billions and billions annually.  

[Sir PMP]

3 hours ago, Despegue said:

Any Developed Nation will offer a Covid19 vaccine for free or just a couple of Euro/ Dollar, probably refunded by the Social Security of that country.

During this Pandemic, we have quickly realised which countries are really developed and which ones only claim to be. 
 

Covid19 treatment , including hospitalisation and medication , and prevention HAS to be free or nearly free. That is the primary base for a recovery and long-term containment. 

Which are the ones that claim to be ?

[iancal]

Why worry about wotifs?

 

Seems to me the bottom line is that we will have to wait until a safe, widely available solution is available be it vaccine or script of some sort.

 

This is a moving target.  Those in science are working hard toward a solution.   When they have one we will all know about it.  Do not know about all countries however I am certain ours will be distributed widely at no cost just as other vaccines are distributed.

Edited July 14, 2020 by iancal

[cruisemom42]

On 7/12/2020 at 2:21 PM, MISTER 67 said:

Unfortunately, people aren't doing safe things. Yesterday in France a bus driver asked people to wear their masks while on the bus, 4 of them disagreed and dragged the driver off the bus and proceeded to beat him to death. Millions refuse to take the virus seriously and refuse to wear masks and social distance.

2020 is a different time and place than 1918 when things were much more civil.

 

I'm going to do a Take 2 on this, since I just read an article posted by someone on a different forum regarding mask-wearing during the 1918 flu pandemic versus today. Spoiler alert: Folks strenuously resisted wearing masks in 1918, just as they are doing now. 

 

Excerpt from the article:

 

"In places where mask orders were successfully implemented, noncompliance and outright defiance quickly became a problem. Many businesses, unwilling to turn away shoppers, wouldn’t bar unmasked customers from their stores. Workers complained that masks were too uncomfortable to wear all day. One Denver salesperson refused because she said her “nose went to sleep” every time she put one on. Another said she believed that “an authority higher than the Denver Department of Health was looking after her well-being.” As one local newspaper put it, the order to wear masks “was almost totally ignored by the people; in fact, the order was cause of mirth.”

 

https://theconversation.com/mask-resistance-during-a-pandemic-isnt-new-in-1918-many-americans-were-slackers-141687

[rkacruiser]

5 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

I'm going to do a Take 2 on this, since I just read an article posted by someone on a different forum regarding mask-wearing during the 1918 flu pandemic versus today. Spoiler alert: Folks strenuously resisted wearing masks in 1918, just as they are doing now. 

 

Excerpt from the article:

 

"In places where mask orders were successfully implemented, noncompliance and outright defiance quickly became a problem. Many businesses, unwilling to turn away shoppers, wouldn’t bar unmasked customers from their stores. Workers complained that masks were too uncomfortable to wear all day. One Denver salesperson refused because she said her “nose went to sleep” every time she put one on. Another said she believed that “an authority higher than the Denver Department of Health was looking after her well-being.” As one local newspaper put it, the order to wear masks “was almost totally ignored by the people; in fact, the order was cause of mirth.”

 

https://theconversation.com/mask-resistance-during-a-pandemic-isnt-new-in-1918-many-americans-were-slackers-141687

 

I appreciate your posting this, but it surely is not an encouraging view. 

 

During the 1918 pandemic, our President, Woodrow Wilson, suffered a stroke on October 2, 1919.  I have no idea as to what his leadership might have been during the start of the Spanish flu, but, through no fault of President Wilson, what leadership to combat that flu existed then?  Is such leadership now missing in 2020?  

 

 

[npcl]

26 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I appreciate your posting this, but it surely is not an encouraging view. 

 

During the 1918 pandemic, our President, Woodrow Wilson, suffered a stroke on October 2, 1919.  I have no idea as to what his leadership might have been during the start of the Spanish flu, but, through no fault of President Wilson, what leadership to combat that flu existed then?  Is such leadership now missing in 2020?  

 

 

The problem again in 1918 as today for power for health policy action in the US resides in the state, not the federal government.

 

The best the federal government can do with its current authority (based upon law and supreme court decisions)  is to make a consistent and uniform set of recommendations for the states to follow (clearly not being done today) and support the states in implementing those recommendations (money).  However the Governor of any state can thumb their nose at the recommendations and make their own decisions.

[Doubt It]

The same in Canada. Any Provincial Premier can make their own decisions for their Province.

 

Americans need to realize, you are not that different than Canada in decision making. Your states and our provinces have authority over the activities in your state and province. The federal governments in the US and Canada have limited authority other than issuing cheques - which President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau have done, exactly the same activity.

 

At the federal level in both countries - both feds are ATM machines and providing emotional and some technical support, that is it to be blunt.

 

The provinces in Canada make decisions based on their provincial realities as your states do. Today, the Gov of California stepped back and reduced public use of indoor facilities like restaurants and bars. Whereas, the Premier of Ontario moved to stage 3 and now opened restaurants and bars for the first time on Friday - it depends upon the realities of each geography. 

 

It also depends on the extent of testing which is different in each geography,

 

There is way too much blaming the federal levels in both countries.

 

But, none of this helps cruising in any way - the geography on a ship is way, way too small to cope with the flu, the noro virus and virus 19. Will not set foot on a cruise ship till all the above is under control and that means dead - vaccines are not necessarily the answer.

 

 

[ABoatNerd]

The vaccine thing - the pressure to produce must be wild.

 

Suspect it will be rushed and really not effective. My understanding is there has never been an effective  corono virus vaccine.

I would not trust it.

 

 

 

 

[KirkNC]

On 7/13/2020 at 8:41 PM, rkacruiser said:

 

I appreciate your posting this, but it surely is not an encouraging view. 

 

During the 1918 pandemic, our President, Woodrow Wilson, suffered a stroke on October 2, 1919.  I have no idea as to what his leadership might have been during the start of the Spanish flu, but, through no fault of President Wilson, what leadership to combat that flu existed then?  Is such leadership now missing in 2020?  

 

 

I recommend reading The Great Influenza by Barry, a bit of a slog but amazing similarities in individual and government response between then and now.  Of course somewhere between 50-100 million people died.  Scary thing is the 1918 virus mutated and after the first wave (there were three over two years) it became super deadly.  Some people died within 24 hours of their symptoms starting.

[ontheweb]

10 hours ago, ABoatNerd said:

The vaccine thing - the pressure to produce must be wild.

 

Suspect it will be rushed and really not effective. My understanding is there has never been an effective  corono virus vaccine.

I would not trust it.

 

 

 

 

Dr. Fauci is encouraged by the results so far in the test trials of the Moderna vaccine.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Dr. Fauci is encouraged by the results so far in the test trials of the Moderna vaccine.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/

Dr Fauci was also encouraged by developments for a HIV/AIDS vaccine.  That was 35 years ago!  These Moderna press releases have done a fantastic job in boosting the stock value of Moderna which has tripled in the last few months.  Meanwhile, key executives at Moderna have sold over $89 Million of stock.   As to the latest info, folks seem to see what they want to see.  Their experimental vaccine produced anti-bodies but the test results apparently do not include info from older folks.  And there were also lots of side effects (i.e. muscle aches, fever, etc).  There group of 45 "healthy adults. ranged in age from 18-55.  This means they are able to generate anti-bodies in healthy young folks.   Whether, or not. those anti-bodies would even protect a person is still unknown.

 

But what does this mean for those of us who love to cruise?   If there is going to be a safe/effective vaccine marketed in large quantities we are likely looking at something more then a year off in the future (no vaccine has ever made it to market in under 3 years).  Will that be fast enough to save the cruise industry?  A  big question.  There have been numerous financial reports/analysis that the 3 major cruise lines (not including MSC) have secured sufficient funding to survive through 2020!  Once we get into 2021 all bets are off.

 

Hank

[HappyInVan]

It is what it is. What will be, will be.

 

Meanwhile, Walmart will make masks mandatory in their stores.

 

 

[Lazz]

On 7/13/2020 at 8:27 PM, cruisemom42 said:

 

I'm going to do a Take 2 on this, since I just read an article posted by someone on a different forum regarding mask-wearing during the 1918 flu pandemic versus today. Spoiler alert: Folks strenuously resisted wearing masks in 1918, just as they are doing now. 

 

Excerpt from the article:

 

"In places where mask orders were successfully implemented, noncompliance and outright defiance quickly became a problem. Many businesses, unwilling to turn away shoppers, wouldn’t bar unmasked customers from their stores. Workers complained that masks were too uncomfortable to wear all day. One Denver salesperson refused because she said her “nose went to sleep” every time she put one on. Another said she believed that “an authority higher than the Denver Department of Health was looking after her well-being.” As one local newspaper put it, the order to wear masks “was almost totally ignored by the people; in fact, the order was cause of mirth.”

 

https://theconversation.com/mask-resistance-during-a-pandemic-isnt-new-in-1918-many-americans-were-slackers-141687

https://aapsonline.org/mask-facts/?fbclid=IwAR3zK78T6eEMPvpQp5Oc19zt1rybxNGDUeUBYfE4ZnUCbbNfXjHAdDI-NZg

 

Recent Mask Facts article from the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons.

[rkacruiser]

22 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I recommend reading The Great Influenza by Barry, a bit of a slog but amazing similarities in individual and government response between then and now.  Of course somewhere between 50-100 million people died.  Scary thing is the 1918 virus mutated and after the first wave (there were three over two years) it became super deadly.  Some people died within 24 hours of their symptoms starting.

 

You might be interested that Ohio's Governor DeWine cited a statement that was recently made by the author of this book.  HIs comment was made in a TV speech broadcast to the entire State.  No other Governor has ever made a statewide plea for Ohioans such as that in that medium to help our State to return to normal, whatever that is.  

 

No statewide mask wearing requirement as of yet.  Disappointing, to me, but the Governor has a General Assembly, even with both Houses are of the same GOP majorities as he is, that he has to work.  

 

The Nation's response to WW II was not politicized.  Our Nation's response--and now I am sorry to say my State's response which started out so well--has become politicized.  

 

 

[ew101]

On 7/12/2020 at 3:34 PM, npcl said:

 We are getting indications of reinfections.  One report indicated that the individuals second infection was worse than the first (my biggest fear is for COVID to behave like Dengue).  His first infection was minor and the second more serious.

This is scary.    If we can get people to waive the right to infect others cruising can resume.  A vaccine to me feels like nuclear fusion- lots of slides, lots of effort - but still x years away.  

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by ew101

[Sir PMP]

3 hours ago, ew101 said:

This is scary.    If we can get people to waive the right to infect others cruising can resume.  A vaccine to me feels like nuclear fusion- lots of slides, lots of effort - but still x years away.  

 

And what to do,if we have a vaccine, and 30% of the people don't want to take it...

[HappyInVan]

16 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

And what to do,if we have a vaccine, and 30% of the people don't want to take it...

 

You have the freedom to not cruise! Just as you have the freedom to not be a customer of Walmart etc. 😊

 

 

[taxmantoo]

22 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

You have the freedom to not cruise! Just as you have the freedom to not be a customer of Walmart etc. 😊

 

 

But the entertainment is so much better at Walmart 😉

[knittinggirl]

I watched the Great Courses Black Plague on Amazon Prime last month.   And it took six years to burn itself out.  It spread rapidly due to the sea routes.  But the thing I didn't know about the Black Death was that it returned about every 10 years into the 17th Century.  The last few lasted twenty and thirty years!  The plague didn't return after the Great Fire in London in 1666.

[puppycanducruise]

I heard that a 15 year old died of the Bubonic Plague a few days ago in Mongolia.  I guess some things never just "go away".

[knittinggirl]

The victim ate an infected Marmot (sp).   In the Black Plague 22-part course series, they spoke of plague in Madagascar.   Also people tend to die of it, because the symptoms can cover a lot of things, and the doctors  can miss it.

 

Not to start an argument, but while in China back in 1984, someone on our tour asked, "what type of meat is this?"  My reaction was I don't want to know.   Looked like it was from a pretty small animal and no knife cuts.   They had something called silver fungus, which was pretty good.

 

Six years of COVID would stink.  They still don't have a vaccine for HIV.

Edited July 16, 2020 by knittinggirl

[ontheweb]

5 hours ago, knittinggirl said:

.

Six years of COVID would stink.  They still don't have a vaccine for HIV.

But they do have effective treatments for HIV. It is not the immediate death sentence that it once was.

[drowelf]

12 hours ago, Sir PMP said:

And what to do,if we have a vaccine, and 30% of the people don't want to take it...

And maybe then the cruise lines will have to mandate that if you want to cruise on our line, then you have to be vaccinated. Present proof of vaccination at boarding or be denied. Its brutal, but the safety of ALL passengers needs to be paramount. Now there may be exemptions for valid medical reasons, similar to those for Yellow Fever.