We'll start with shorter cruises and fewer people

[boatseller]

2 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

Miami-Dade had 4,000 new cases reported today. Half the state total

And that's all without cruising or theme parks and the most restrictions in the State.

[firefly333]

12 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I cancelled one November Oasis criuse then shifted the other this week. 2020 as scheduled, is done. Well, maybe try and salvage Christmas and NYE.

I already am booked dec 2021 and march 2022 (b2b).

 

Would be hard to lift and shift feb 2021 to 2022 and squeeze in between already booked dates. It's the not knowing. So I'm sitting on my hands but starting to worry about my b2b feb 2021, next booked 

[Pratique]

6 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

They might be able to shut diwn Oasis deck 3 forward and make a hospital in the conference center. Use the cabins down there for additional medical staff and quarantine rooms

Does anyone know if the CDC will approve individualized plans for each cruise line or will it be a one size must fit all?

[John&LaLa]

1 minute ago, Pratique said:

Does anyone know if the CDC will approve individualized plans for each cruise line or will it be a one size must fit all?

 

Hopefully something forthcoming. 

Aren't the recommendations/comments due out soon

[Iamcruzin]

3 minutes ago, boatseller said:

And that's all without cruising or theme parks and the most restrictions in the State.

The problem is it's the most populated area and a large tourist attraction even without the theme parks. It's the bars that are the issue. You can't social distance and you need a full capacity to stay in business. The restaurants can take away tables and  they just have to turn tables faster.  People hang out at bars nursing a drink which isn't profitable at 1/2 capacity.

[ipeeinthepool]

44 minutes ago, PhoenixCruiser said:

 

Where was I comparing the current death rate to March and April?  

 

So what did you mean by "death toll"?   Current death rate is the best way to evaluate how we are currently dealing with the virus.

[firefly333]

9 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

They might be able to shut diwn Oasis deck 3 forward and make a hospital in the conference center. Use the cabins down there for additional medical staff and quarantine rooms

That's sort of what I was reading though some said give them bottom 2 decks in case someone gets sick. Give them some space. 2 decks.  But again, would take some planning ahead and leaving those decks open unless they just do like the ship changes... and start moving people. 

 

I've read endless speculation until I'm to the pt ... who knows... coco cat would be fine with me. I've been to all the ports before. I just want to cruise, dont care much about ports. I'd even stay on the ship if it just docks. Just wanna know. (Like everyone else).

[Pratique]

35 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Hopefully something forthcoming. 

Aren't the recommendations/comments due out soon

The first round of comments were to help CDC come up with the regulations. Then they will issue proposed rulemaking and there will be another round of public comment before they take effect. So probably not anytime soon.

[Pratique]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Carnival alluded to the shorter cruises, then said sept would open with 3 ports and 8 ships. Contradicting the opening with shorter cruises idea.

 

I'm having a hard time believing they have any plan in place to open lol. And this is rcl and ccl. Seems like the plans are ideas on the fly, and will change with whatever cdc comes out with. 

 

I'm still firmly in the wait and see after having both my b2b changed ships, one with 0 notification. I dont think rcl knows or has a plan is my theory. Sitting on my hands waiting for the next shoe to drop.

It's not just the cruise industry that is struggling with plans. It's everyone. Even my employer doesn't really know what to do other than cross our fingers and hope for the best.

[suzyluvs2cruise]

3 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Hopefully something forthcoming. 

Aren't the recommendations/comments due out soon

 

The CDC has asked for input from the public.  Comments are due by Sept 21. 

 

CDC Questionnaire for Public Input

 

[zekekelso]

5 hours ago, Pratique said:

Does anyone know if the CDC will approve individualized plans for each cruise line or will it be a one size must fit all?

The CDC’s goals are universal, but the lines will submit individualized plans. 

[zekekelso]

5 hours ago, boatseller said:

on't hear about med bays being over run with Influenza patients and you can board with symptomatic Influenza.

Covid isn’t the flu. Trying to compare it to the flu will lead to poor thinking. We have to think of Covid as Covid, not as something it isn’t. 

[boatseller]

53 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

Covid isn’t the flu. Trying to compare it to the flu will lead to poor thinking. We have to think of Covid as Covid, not as something it isn’t. 

Statistically, if is more like Influenza than most people know.  Not recognizing that wastes time coming to identical conclusions.

 

Current hospital level care rates are 70/100k for Influenza vs 98/100k for C19.  That's not even a 2x rate.  So, a cruise ship med bay might have to accommodate 1 additional patient at any given time, that's not at all hard to do.

 

As mentioned, you can board with symptomatic Flu but almost surely not C19 which pushes the ration even higher.

[Jimbo]

13 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Actually yes.  The percentage of deaths is dramatically lower than it was in March and April.

I would hope so, more people are now wearing masks and social distancing. Early months not as many were even doing that.

[John&LaLa]

1 minute ago, Jimbo said:

I would hope so, more people are now wearing masks and social distancing. Early months not as many were even doing that.

 

I thought the consensus here was FL/TX/CA/AZ were doing neither. 

[Jimbo]

2 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I thought the consensus here was FL/TX/CA/AZ were doing neither. 

and there lies the hot spots and  and one  of the reasons why no one is cruising anytime soon.

 

Be something wouldn't if cruising starts first in NJ and NY, before any of the Southern states.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Jimbo

[John&LaLa]

15 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

and there lies the hot spots and  and one  of the reasons why no one is cruising anytime soon.

 

Be something wouldn't if cruising starts first in NJ and NY, before any of the Southern states.

 

Yep, never would have thought that in May

 

But the challenge now is how to do short cruises out of NJ/NY

 

Now this is ironic. Brevard County Florida (Pt Canaveral) and Hudson County New Jersey (Cape Liberty) both had 58 new cases today.

Edited August 12, 2020 by John&LaLa

[Etta1213]

I don't see shoppers without masks in our part of Texas (north). People here are pretty cooperative.

[Jimbo]

1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Yep, never would have thought that in May

 

But the challenge now is how to do short cruises out of NJ/NY

 

Now this is ironic. Brevard County Florida (Pt Canaveral) and Hudson County New Jersey (Cape Liberty) both had 58 new cases today.

It could work if cruises are allowed for the time being to Nowhere.............

[Ashland]

46 minutes ago, Etta1213 said:

I don't see shoppers without masks in our part of Texas (north). People here are pretty cooperative.

We see the same here in SoCal ...many more are cooperating than are not. 

[John&LaLa]

32 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

It could work if cruises are allowed for the time being to Nowhere.............

 

Not sure that's going anywhere. 

 

Pun intended

[zekekelso]

3 hours ago, boatseller said:

Statistically, if is more like Influenza than most people know.  Not recognizing that wastes time coming to identical conclusions.

 

Current hospital level care rates are 70/100k for Influenza vs 98/100k for C19.  That's not even a 2x rate.  So, a cruise ship med bay might have to accommodate 1 additional patient at any given time, that's not at all hard to do.

 

As mentioned, you can board with symptomatic Flu but almost surely not C19 which pushes the ration even higher.

That’s not the way the math works, and is a perfect example of treating Covid like the flu leading to erroneous conclusions. We know Covid is significantly more contagious than the flu. Even if on average it causes the same number of hospitalizations (it doesn’t) it has to be prepared for differently. Cases will be clumpier for Covid than for the flu, so a ship with an outbreak would expect more sick passengers. We’ve already seen this. Has there ever been a cruise ship where 10 people died from the flu? We already know ships can see more than one very sick Covid patient, so arguing that’s all a ship should prepare for just isn’t going to fly with the decision makers. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by zekekelso

[Pratique]

55 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Not sure that's going anywhere. 

 

Pun intended

Yup. I'm sure it's going nowhere. There was a time in a galaxy far, far away when CBP was actually willing to consider, on a very limited basis, waivers for non-revenue cruises to nowhere for the major cruise lines. Even if that was still the case, it's not even close to any thoughts of what would be needed now.

 

The more I think about it, the more it seems like return to cruising is not only a low priority for the U.S. but perhaps even a liability that will be subject to a more push-back than push-forward. WSJ published another anti-cruise article yesterday focusing on failures of the crew repatriation process. I found it ironic that some crew complained that the "ships" weren't enforcing masks and social distancing on board. It seems that the crew, of all people, should at least be following the rules. If they can't police themselves, what hope is there for keeping the guests safe.

[boatseller]

On 8/12/2020 at 10:15 PM, zekekelso said:

That’s not the way the math works, and is a perfect example of treating Covid like the flu leading to erroneous conclusions. We know Covid is significantly more contagious than the flu. Even if on average it causes the same number of hospitalizations (it doesn’t) it has to be prepared for differently. Cases will be clumpier for Covid than for the flu, so a ship with an outbreak would expect more sick passengers. We’ve already seen this. Has there ever been a cruise ship where 10 people died from the flu? We already know ships can see more than one very sick Covid patient, so arguing that’s all a ship should prepare for just isn’t going to fly with the decision makers. 

Those numbers are inclusive of the ccv's higher transmission rate so...the math works fine, sorry.  

 

"Has there ever been a cruise ship where 10 people died from the flu?"  We don't know because this data isn't tracked.  And it hasn't happened with C19 either, even the DP.

 

"We already know ships can see more than one very sick Covid patient" because they were kept aboard the ship.  Terrible decision in retrospect, but understandable.  This will not be the case in the future.

 

"treating Covid like the flu leading to erroneous conclusions" So, we shouldn't cover sneezes, wear face coverings and wash our hands?  Cuz that's the same advice for the flu.

[firefly333]

On 8/12/2020 at 6:18 PM, John&LaLa said:

 

I thought the consensus here was FL/TX/CA/AZ were doing neither. 

Masks?  Mandatory here in Dallas. Idk about the whole state. Border towns with legal crossings seem to be the new problem of no hospital beds and sending people home to die. Maybe around Larado. 

 

Too bad they dont have some temp test or something if you cross into the us at the borders for workers who go back and forth. 

 

Though dallas is far from out of the woods., heard today there hasn't been a trial by jury here since shut down in march and wouldnt be any for the rest of the year.

 

Idk how widespread the mandatory mask rule is .. I mostly follow dallas.