No sail order extended to October 31st.

[cruisemom42]

45 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

1. Tests are not 100% accurate. There are both false positive and false negative results.
2. Someone could be exposed to the virus while traveling to the cruise (e.g., by air) and they will almost certainly test negative prior to boarding because they do not yet have enough viral load to test positive. Yet during the course of the course they can infect others.

 

sorry, that should read "during the course of the cruise".  

 

Just can't type in the morning, lol...

[Fouremco]

8 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

If you truly want to follow the science, than there is no better science than what you are seeing right before your eyes. What is the data are we seeing in front of our eyes at the reopening of schools.... in 30 counties around the world with no mitigation schemes, no masks, or social distancing and the answer is: absolutely no uptick in cases, no transmission from children to teachers or elderly grandparents. All things people were concerned about.
 

What absolute nonsense. Since the return to school, our city and surrounding area have seen a definite uptick in cases, with  students, teachers, school staff and school bus drivers coming down with the virus. Hundreds of students have been ordered to stay home until tested, and in a number of cases, entire schools have been shut down. All of that with mitigation programs in place and a heavy emphasis on the use of masks, hand washing and social distancing. 

[Fouremco]

3 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

sorry, that should read "during the course of the cruise".  

 

Just can't type in the morning, lol...

The human brain is a wonderful thing. I read your initial post and didn't even notice, as my mind simply saw what it expected to be there, not what was actually there.

[Bo1953]

9 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

If you truly want to follow the science, than there is no better science than what you are seeing right before your eyes. What is the data are we seeing in front of our eyes at the reopening of schools.... in 30 counties around the world with no mitigation schemes, no masks, or social distancing and the answer is: absolutely no uptick in cases, no transmission from children to teachers or elderly grandparents. All things people were concerned about.
 

The opening of Disney in Florida is not resulting in a huge uptick in hospitalizations or god forbid deaths of Covid 19. It just simply isn’t.

 

If they open up the ships they know they’ll be exposed for the exaggeration this “pandemic” really is. Yes every death is a tragedy... but I don’t intend on staying on home for eternity to continue this failed social experiment.

Thanks for the info/update!

 

Will you name a few countries, which have cruise ports, that are included on this list?

 

bon voyage

[Ride-The-Waves]

12 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

You do understand that those numbers are not accurate, don't you?  If you die of anything today, you've died of Covid.  The hospitals get reimbursed more if you died of Covid.  From what I've read, about 6% of that number have actually died of Covid.

 

Actually, just the opposite.  US states like Florida do not report a COVID-19 death if they can use any other reason, like "stopped breathing" or "heart and lung failure."  The real death rate is significantly higher than reported.

[hcat]

Lets all be nice.

 

In fairness, folks following Fla news  reports have seen some " number jumbles"  from many sources... hosps, gov agencis, labs, testing sites etc.

 

What matters to our family are numbers of  new cases, going up or down?  No one really knows the long term consequences of Covid...

 

Hoping to cruise with Confidence in 2022!

[cruisemom42]

8 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

If you truly want to follow the science, than there is no better science than what you are seeing right before your eyes. What is the data are we seeing in front of our eyes at the reopening of schools.... in 30 counties around the world with no mitigation schemes, no masks, or social distancing and the answer is: absolutely no uptick in cases, no transmission from children to teachers or elderly grandparents. All things people were concerned about.
 

The opening of Disney in Florida is not resulting in a huge uptick in hospitalizations or god forbid deaths of Covid 19. It just simply isn’t.

 

If they open up the ships they know they’ll be exposed for the exaggeration this “pandemic” really is. Yes every death is a tragedy... but I don’t intend on staying on home for eternity to continue this failed social experiment.

 

A sampling of schools that have reopened and then closed again due to uptick in COVID cases:

 

In Connecticut: https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc-news-coronavirus-schools-closed-connecticut-20200910-qp2zk7nxqzfmvhdymhefgxydra-story.html

 

In Georgia:  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/georgia-s-cherokee-county-closes-third-high-school-covid-concerns-n1236898

 

In Tennessee:  https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/education/2020/08/05/tennessee-school-districts-reported-coronavirus-cases/3296529001/

 

In many other states including Florida, Louisiana, Texas, New York, Indiana, North Carolina:  https://www.fatherly.com/parenting/all-these-schools-reopened-and-then-had-covid-19-outbreaks/

 

 

[TeeRick]

So a thread about the No Sail order being extended to Oct 31 has become a forum for debating the number of COVID deaths reported in the US and the accuracy of that number. 

 

Let's review (these are my thoughts anyway). The accepted number is over 200,000 many of those in the early days of the pandemic, in the elderly in nursing homes, and many in the NE US states.  Deaths continue but at a lower rate as the world has learned a lot about the virus and methods of treatment and some drugs (like dexamethasone) in the last 9 months.  The US and world now mostly have abundant PPE, protocols, masks, social distancing.  And a lot of good epidemiology and contact tracing.  Testing went from near zero to millions in this period and now rapid testing has been developed.  PCR, Antigen and AB testing available mostly everywhere.  We are becoming capable of dealing with this virus for the expected long term.  Many are worried about surges, second waves, super spreaders.  That is part of the deal now.  We need to just get used to it.

 

Infections and some hospitilizations and mortalities will continue into the future even with an approved vaccine and new therapeutics on the way..

 

Back to cruising.  Like everything else with this virus, cruising imposes a risk of infection or worse.  I personally have decided not to cruise and I am taking a wait and see attitude.  Others will go right away (and some are on cruise ships as we speak).  This is everybody's personal risk tolerance and choice.  I also personally feel that the cruise industry now really understands their specific enhanced risks of having thousands of people on an enclosed ship.  And cruising will not happen without approved protocols and required testing to address it.  So I say it is now time for the cruise industry after Oct 31, like EVERY other industry has been allowed,  including airlines and hotels and theme parks, to step up and step forward and get back into the safest operations possible.  We will have to live with this virus - and yes others will come too as they have in the past.  

Edited October 1, 2020 by TeeRick

[hcat]

Thanks for putting us back on track to the topic!

 

What does everyone think will be the next step?

[JOVERNITE]

When my grandmother died of cancer pre-Covid, renal failure was the cause of death. I believe cancer was listed after that. If she were to pass away today and had been diagnosed with Covid before her death, would they put Covid as the primary cause of death? I would hope not since she was at end stage cancer.

 

On a different note, I cannot figure out folks who refuse to wear a mask in stores or at gatherings.

 

 

[C-Dragons]

8 hours ago, Germancruiser said:

I am boarding Mein Schiff 1 tomorrow afternoon. Have been tested negativ so I am good to go. Of course there is no garantie that I don´t catch the bugger until sailing date- but I am very carfeull - ever since the beginn of the Pandemic.

I felt very safe on my first little blue journey and will do so this time. All those precautions TUI CRUISES took seem to work- of course one can take nothing for granted and in consideration for others had to wear his mask, when social distancing can not be adhered.

Wishing you Bon Voyage and a safe, wonderful trip!

[C-Dragons]

1 hour ago, hcat said:

Lets all be nice.

Amen.

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 hour ago, Bo1953 said:

Personally, I believe the numbers are accurate, even if an underlying condition (i.e. heart disease, obesity, diabetes, etc.) is the 'primary cause' of death, C-19 is the factor that sped it up.

 

As such, C-19 is the causal effect of the death as the person 'most likely' would be able to survive using the protocols they use to control these factors, if any at all. Those who do not have good control over their underlying health issues, their bodies are a ticking time bomb regardless... which is unfortunate.

 

Maybe the 6% figure is relating to those who have no health conditions which would place them at greater risk for death?

 

In health and bon voyage

No - death certificates usually show multiple causes.  COVID creates all sorts of issues from strokes, heart failure, respiratory failure.  The 6% number is for death certificates showing ONLY COVID.

As for COVID cases and morbidity numbers being accurate?  How many millions in the US were very sick this winter and spring with "flu like symptoms" or no symptoms at all?  Science tells us how many in the US have been infected - remember not all have any symptoms.  The 7M number includes only those with a positive COVID test.  However, antibody tests show about a 10-11% rate.  Thus about 35M have had COVID in the US.

Now what about Italy where the health system collapsed?  Thousands so my died at home and were buried.  No testing.  Is everyone in countries like India tested?  If the US testing proved about 20% of cases, is the rate in India 5%?  2%? 10%?  All we do know is the actual deaths are much higher.

My statistics background suggests one look at the number of deaths using trailing numbers as recording death certificates often lags by 1 - 3 months.  If these is a higher number in 2020 then what changed?  While admitting that records for many 3rd World countries are not accurate and understate deaths - always have;  take a look.  US deaths up by some 200 thru June.  Worldwide by about 2M (agree this number very fuzzy).

Again my medical info from others.  The statistics and mine using Google to search.  

We moved April 2019 cruises to April 2020 and then to August 2020.  I give our cruises about a 50/50 chance because of some small tender ports.

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

So I say it is now time for the cruise industry after Oct 31, like EVERY other industry has been allowed,  including airlines and hotels and theme parks, to step up and step forward and get back into the safest operations possible. 

Bingo, the ball is in the cruise industry's court.

56 minutes ago, hcat said:

Thanks for putting us back on track to the topic!

 

What does everyone think will be the next step?

The lines will need to submit detailed action plans to the CDC for review, and after approval, then  they could reasonably think about powering up.

[LGW59]

5 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Bingo, the ball is in the cruise industry's court.

The lines will need to submit detailed action plans to the CDC for review, and after approval, then  they could reasonably think about powering up.

RCL & NCL have submitted a detailed plan, they are just waiting for CDC review and approval

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

What absolute nonsense. Since the return to school, our city and surrounding area have seen a definite uptick in cases, with  students, teachers, school staff and school bus drivers coming down with the virus. Hundreds of students have been ordered to stay home until tested, and in a number of cases, entire schools have been shut down. All of that with mitigation programs in place and a heavy emphasis on the use of masks, hand washing and social distancing. 

Fouremco - there are a number of countries including Vancouver Island in Canada with few if any cases of COVID.  Why?  There are similarities.  They tend to be isolated or islands, not tourist destinations OR they greatly reduced International travel and have little historic travel with China.  Australia and NZ and two biggies.  Pretty easy to control who comes in or out.

There is also a cultural factor.  Americans for example tend to be very individualistic.  Tell them to line up and they ask why.  Aussies and others follow directions.  The lockdown imposed by China, Australia and Italy would not work in the US.  

As for Disney World, Florida certainly has had an uptick.  Disney works to make things s safe as possible but their visitors are from all over.  Not hard if one likes to start with a large gathering of people like Sturgis SD and move forward a couple weeks and see COVID spiking in many states besides South Dakota.

Locally the University of Arizona opened.  All on campus or in person classes required a test.  In 5 weeks a couple thousand cases among students.

The sail safe committee report which took 6 months to happen gets discussed today with the politicians and probably the CDC.  Hope sort out the details and get things moving again.  Safely.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Arizona Wildcat

[pumpkin 11]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

A sampling of schools that have reopened and then closed again due to uptick in COVID cases:

 

In Connecticut: https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc-news-coronavirus-schools-closed-connecticut-20200910-qp2zk7nxqzfmvhdymhefgxydra-story.html

 

In Georgia:  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/georgia-s-cherokee-county-closes-third-high-school-covid-concerns-n1236898

 

In Tennessee:  https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/education/2020/08/05/tennessee-school-districts-reported-coronavirus-cases/3296529001/

 

In many other states including Florida, Louisiana, Texas, New York, Indiana, North Carolina:  https://www.fatherly.com/parenting/all-these-schools-reopened-and-then-had-covid-19-outbreaks/

 

 

Cases... which are meaningless. I care about deaths hospitalizations and ICU admissions. There are no hospitals overwhelmed in the USA

[Gracie115]

3 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 

Actually, just the opposite.  US states like Florida do not report a COVID-19 death if they can use any other reason, like "stopped breathing" or "heart and lung failure."  The real death rate is significantly higher than reported.

 

How about some proof of that statement, instead of just accusations based on hearsay?  

[cruisemom42]

23 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Cases... which are meaningless. I care about deaths hospitalizations and ICU admissions. There are no hospitals overwhelmed in the USA

 

Now you are changing what you originally said:

 

"If you truly want to follow the science, than there is no better science than what you are seeing right before your eyes. What is the data are we seeing in front of our eyes at the reopening of schools.... in 30 counties around the world with no mitigation schemes, no masks, or social distancing and the answer is: absolutely no uptick in cases, no transmission from children to teachers or elderly grandparents. 

 

You can't just keep moving the goal posts.

 

Considering most schools around the country that reopened have only done so in the last few weeks it is too early to determine impact on hospital admissions and deaths, which lag behind infections by several weeks.

Edited October 1, 2020 by cruisemom42

[LGW59]

20 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Cases... which are meaningless. I care about deaths hospitalizations and ICU admissions. There are no hospitals overwhelmed in the USA

Cases...which are meaningless???  Not if those "meaningless" cases result in a death, in my state, 10 - 20 people are still dying from COVID each day!!!  Not meaningless if you are a family...YOU are clueless!

[nocl]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Bingo, the ball is in the cruise industry's court.

The lines will need to submit detailed action plans to the CDC for review, and after approval, then  they could reasonably think about powering up.

This is where my concern lies.  If the white house  is calling the shots now (as indicated by HHS taking away the regulatory signature authority for both FDA and CDC, and by the white house committee over riding the CDC recommendation (according to reports not by negotiating a different date, but by directed action), are you sure that CDC will in fact have the power to make the final decision on those plans?

 

I would not have an issue if the white house had directed that the extension be written to be open ended and that each line would be allowed to sail once their detailed plans were submitted and approved. But that was not the direction.  The direction was the end of October cutoff date (which just by coincidence is the CLIA self imposed date). I suspect that the cruise lines are lobbying very strongly that they not be subjected to anything that would result in increased reporting and inspection requirements in the US.

 

Now you have the cruise lines meeting directly with the white house committee for them to pitch their approach.  In the past these kinds of sessions have generally resulted in companies saying what they are going to do, but end with self regulation, not with regulatory authority over sight.  Usually when a regulatory agency is going to be in charge the meetings are directly with that agency.

 

I would not have a problem if:

1. The cruise lines do have to submit detailed plans to the CDC and the CDC must approve prior to start up

2. Those plans require detailed reports to the CDC

3. The CDC retains over sight and inspection capability, executed through the coast guard, as an expansion of current requirements (adding Covid plan compliance to the existing health inspections and the noro type illness reporting).

 

So far the CLIA has provided their general framework, but no detailed plans have been submitted.  This parallels the earlier action of the CLIA in the early stages (as described in the do not sail orders) that the CLIA did not follow up their original framework proposals with detailed plans, and several cruise lines removed ships from US waters to avoid having to report.

 

My read on this is that with the White House Committee taking direct control, even if CDC is at the table (which they must be because they are on the committee), the CDC is being marginalized, and will have very limited ability to mandate cruise line requirements.  I doubt the cruise lines want any expansion of CDC/Coast Guard over sight into their operations and increased health data reporting.  Basically the same as the law proposed by the 2 Florida senators, without it having actually becoming law.

 

I hope that I am mistaken and that the CDC does retain that level of control.  However, I doubt that will be the case.  We will see what comes out of committee/cruise line meeting.  Though I expect what we hear from that meeting will be more PR and political posturing that any actual communication on plans, reviews, and monitoring.  The cruise lines and the WH committee will not want to communicate any easing of requirements, and the CDC will be forbidden from talking about it.

 

I would also expect that the CDC did have the documents prepared for what they proposed at the meeting.  With the change, new documents would need to be prepared, reviewed and signed.  It will be interesting to see if the new notice is signed by the CDC Director, or if it signed by the Head of HHS.  That will be very telling.

Edited October 1, 2020 by nocl

[nocl]

1 hour ago, LGW59 said:

RCL & NCL have submitted a detailed plan, they are just waiting for CDC review and approval

Have they.  Where is that documented?

 

Their committee report is not a detailed plan.  It is a general list of recommendations.  The only reports of anything beyond that report, is the framework from the CLIA, which is also not detailed plans.  If you can point at any report or publication that indicates such plans have been submitted I am sure people would be certainly interested to see them.

 

[Arizona Wildcat]

35 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Cases... which are meaningless. I care about deaths hospitalizations and ICU admissions. There are no hospitals overwhelmed in the USA

Really?  My state has 1/3 of hospital beds occupied with people I'll either from COVID OR some 3 dozen complications such as permanent lung damage, loss of cognitive brain function and a long list of others.  

Meaningless cases?  Really?  I have no idea which case might be one causing injury or death.  Evidently you do.  COVID is like playing roulette.  You never know when you get 00 and die or 0 and have a life changing injury.

As for overwhelmed - hospitals nearby are normally almost empty.  In November when the snowbirds return along with the flu beds are often at capacity until Spring.  Add a COVID load and we will be back to shipping people to other states like we did in July and August.  Scary.

[chengkp75]

Well, given that HHS, above Azar's signature, has released new regulations regarding "quarantinable infectious diseases", that create strict regulations on the old broad powers to quarantine or disallow people from entering the US, and which name the CDC as executive agency, and that deals with cruise ships, and with an effective date of Oct 13th, I think CDC is quite happy with the extension only running to the 31st.

 

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/09/11/2020-20036/control-of-communicable-diseases-foreign-quarantine-suspension-of-the-right-to-introduce-and

[bikerunner]

Does anyone really think that you would sail without knowing the cruise lines plans overall for this.  All of sudden it will be on Oct 31  Good to go and lets get on.  The cruise lines will have a plan, they sent in recommendations that they feel are needed for a safe environment.  Yes the CDC has to have a say, so do other groups, Im fine with the rumors of the Oct 31 being made because of an override .  Do it month to month.  Cruising for Nov will not happen, as the cruise lines have said it will take 30ish days to get everything started up/crew in place etc

 

  You have two sides here, the overly cautious, lets shut down everything, eveyone stay home crowd and the other is open up let us live.  Its the happy median that needs to be found overall.  Im comfortable with masks and some other restrictions but there is still alot to be figured out and learned overall. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by bikerunner
forgot something