CDC Lifts No Sail Order

[Bevv]

I may have missed this in the discussion, but does every single ship have to have test cruises or will the company test cruises be the determining factor? For example if Carnival starts with two ships out of Miami that go through all the hoops and get provisional sailing authority would the ships out of the next port have to do the same starting process?  If so I can see it would take a LONG time to get a significant number of ships sailing.

 

[TomCruise48]

51 minutes ago, Bevv said:

I may have missed this in the discussion, but does every single ship have to have test cruises or will the company test cruises be the determining factor? 

 

I don't think you missed anything, since the CDC has not yet addressed this.  The CDC Conditional Sail Order issued 10/30/20 sets a framework for cruises to restart in US waters.  It does not contain all of the details.  It appears that more details will be coming from the CDC in the future as technical instructions and orders.  This question may be answered in these future instructions and orders.

[jimbo5544]

10 hours ago, TomCruise48 said:

I don't think you missed anything, since the CDC has not yet addressed this.  The CDC Conditional Sail Order issued 10/30/20 sets a framework for cruises to restart in US waters.  It does not contain all of the details.  It appears that more details will be coming from the CDC in the future as technical instructions and orders.  This question may be answered in these future instructions and orders.

The implication is that this will prove the cruise line will have knowledge and ability to meet the directive.  Everything I have seen implies there will be a few for each line, not each ship.

[YankeeFan4Ever]

On 11/2/2020 at 11:10 AM, jimbo5544 said:

Cash is king.  Ignore the stock and look at the cash.  That is what pays the bills.  They are in FAR BETTER stead than the other big two.  If you are looking for a cruise line in deep do do, NCL is your match.  

 

Ports certainly have more say now than before, but they need the cash also.

I have to disagree with you.

 

If you look at the current cash reserves of the big three and compare it to their monthly cash burn, Carnival has approx 10 months of cash left. RCL has around 12-14 months and NCL has close to 16 months.

 

This is obviously based on if each of the big three cruise companies can’t raise any additional capital in the coming months...who knows? Perhaps they will as investors should be able to see the pent up demand for cruises however nothing is guaranteed at this point...

 

[travelhound]

On 10/30/2020 at 5:38 PM, firefly333 said:

 

I cant wait as we now have real cruise positive news

Yup, there is finally light at the end of this dark tunnel 🙂

 

[jimbo5544]

34 minutes ago, YankeeFan4Ever said:

I have to disagree with you.

 

If you look at the current cash reserves of the big three and compare it to their monthly cash burn, Carnival has approx 10 months of cash left. RCL has around 12-14 months and NCL has close to 16 months.

 

This is obviously based on if each of the big three cruise companies can’t raise any additional capital in the coming months...who knows? Perhaps they will as investors should be able to see the pent up demand for cruises however nothing is guaranteed at this point...

 

Both NCL and RCCL earnings calls and pandemic assessments disagree with your view

[YankeeFan4Ever]

2 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Both NCL and RCCL earnings calls and pandemic assessments disagree with your view

Their bank accounts don’t disagree with my view.

 

As you said yourself, cash is king...

Edited November 8, 2020 by YankeeFan4Ever

[jimbo5544]

3 minutes ago, YankeeFan4Ever said:

Their bank accounts don’t disagree with my view.

 

As you said yourself, cash is king...

The disagreement is in the spending and the ability for future cash generation.  Both Royal and NCL wells are dry in regards to common stock offerings, Carnival has tons of room.  All that said, you can see it your way, I will see it mine. 

[YankeeFan4Ever]

2 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

The disagreement is in the spending and the ability for future cash generation.  Both Royal and NCL wells are dry in regards to common stock offerings, Carnival has tons of room.  All that said, you can see it your way, I will see it mine. 

I doubt any line would be saved by common stock offerings. They would most likely need more money from outside investors to save them if they can’t generate any meaningful revenue in 2021. 
 

Carnival’s biggest problem may lie in the fact that they have too many ships in their fleet to attract the kind of investor cash they’ll need to stay afloat.

 

My money’s on NCL or RCL or perhaps a merger of the two in the future...

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, YankeeFan4Ever said:

I doubt any line would be saved by common stock offerings. They would most likely need more money from outside investors to save them if they can’t generate any meaningful revenue in 2021. 
 

Carnival’s biggest problem may lie in the fact that they have too many ships in their fleet to attract the kind of investor cash they’ll need to stay afloat.

 

My money’s on NCL or RCL or perhaps a merger of the two in the future...

NCL isn't big enough to be included in a comparison. Unlike RCL, Carnival HAS removed a significant number of ships from the fleet. Carnival has about 15 months of cash on hand and has no trouble raising a billion here and a billion there.

 

CCL has raised a billion here and there from stock offerings and a number of billions from convertible bond offerings.

[YankeeFan4Ever]

8 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

NCL isn't big enough to be included in a comparison. Unlike RCL, Carnival HAS removed a significant number of ships from the fleet. Carnival has about 15 months of cash on hand and has no trouble raising a billion here and a billion there.

 

CCL has raised a billion here and there from stock offerings and a number of billions from convertible bond offerings.

I understand that, Carnival sold 16 out of 104 ships. They’re still huge and burning through over $600,000,000 a month.

 

Even if they manage to raise a billion here and a billion there, will it be enough to survive? Doubtful, unless they can get back to cruising.

 

If not, they’ll have (in order) 4 basic options:

-Raise more capital

-Sell more ships/lower expenses

-Bankruptcy protection/restructuring

-Go out of business/close up shop

 

If this virus continues and cruises remain suspended, CCL, RCL and NCL all face these challenges. My opinion is simply that CCL will be the fist to go, they cannot sustain this amount of monthly cash burn for another year.

 

As the old saying goes, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall.”

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, YankeeFan4Ever said:

I understand that, Carnival sold 16 out of 104 ships. They’re still huge and burning through over $600,000,000 a month.

 

Even if they manage to raise a billion here and a billion there, will it be enough to survive? Doubtful, unless they can get back to cruising.

 

 

 

Carnival IS cruising again - albeit temporarily paused - just not in the US. They have also reduced the cash burn rate to well under $600 million/month and continue to make progress.

 

Obviously if a cruise line can't cruise, they can't stay in business forever. But cruising again is on the horizon and Carnival has already eliminated their less profitable ships.

[SNJCruisers]

3 hours ago, YankeeFan4Ever said:

 

As the old saying goes, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall.”

Wasn't someone saying that yesterday? 🤔

[YankeeFan4Ever]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Carnival IS cruising again - albeit temporarily paused - just not in the US. They have also reduced the cash burn rate to well under $600 million/month and continue to make progress.

 

Obviously if a cruise line can't cruise, they can't stay in business forever. But cruising again is on the horizon and Carnival has already eliminated their less profitable ships.

I know they’re cruising again, but they need to make some real money if they want to survive this. One or two cruises here and there won’t cut it I’m afraid.

 

And yes, I’ve now read that they have reduced their monthly cash burn rate down to 530-550 million a month, still a staggering amount...

 

All I’m trying to say is; in my opinion, if things don’t improve in the next 6-12 months, Carnival will be the first to face some really tough decisions regarding the future of their business.

 

Again, just my opinion, I believe NCL is actually the best positioned (financially) out of the big 3 to survive any extended pause in operations.
 

 

[PhillyFan33579]

On 11/2/2020 at 5:07 AM, chengkp75 said:

I think the CDC got exactly what they wanted.  They removed the stigma of a shut down order, and yet retained all the requirements from that no sail order.  They believe that the requirements listed in the conditional sail order are the best obtainable from an infectious disease prevention standpoint.  The cost and time frame needed to set up all the infrastructure gives them time to analyze the industry's response and commitment to the process, and tweak the details as needed to best protect the US public.

I think the CDC knows exactly what they are doing. They established parameters that no cruise line will meet prior to the CDC announcing another no sail order towards the end of January. 

[chengkp75]

13 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I think the CDC knows exactly what they are doing. They established parameters that no cruise line will meet prior to the CDC announcing another no sail order towards the end of January. 

Why would they issue another NSO when, if you are right, the requirements they have established accomplish the same thing, stopping cruises?

[PhillyFan33579]

24 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Why would they issue another NSO when, if you are right, the requirements they have established accomplish the same thing, stopping cruises?

If you don’t understand what is going on right now I can’t help you. If I explained it to you my response would be deleted. However, I would bet my last dollar the CDC will issue another NSO in the not too distant future. 

[beerman2]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Why would they issue another NSO when, if you are right, the requirements they have established accomplish the same thing, stopping cruises?

I agree, It's all semantics, administration told CDC they couldn't extend NSO. So what do they do issue a "Certificate to Sail" after meeting certain guidelines. The CDC still got what they wanted.

 

In essence No Sailing. 

[MRVEGAS711]

With  SEVEN BILLION people on Earth, maybe the average Joe gets the vaccine before next Christmas. Here's to hoping ER personal get it as soon as possible and people in need. I think cruises start up in 2021. Summer, maybe.

 

[jimbo5544]

7 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Bold my emphasis: just for clarification, the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine development was not funded by the US Gov't, only an agreement to sell it to the US after it is developed: a "pre-order" if you will:

 

"In July, Pfizer got a $1.95 billion deal with the government’s Operation Warp Speed, the multiagency effort to rush a vaccine to market, to deliver 100 million doses of the vaccine. The arrangement is an advance-purchase agreement, meaning that the company won’t get paid until they deliver the vaccines. Pfizer did not accept federal funding to help develop or manufacture the vaccine, unlike front-runners Moderna and AstraZeneca."

We can discuss what the label of the 2 bill they gave them. The point is we get dies on the doses.  

[jimbo5544]

6 minutes ago, Trueblueky said:

We paid for it?

Pfizer, developing the vaccine in conjunction with German partner BioNTech, says they did not take US aid.  But if they did, was there also German or EU aid?

 

I have to believe the EU has a partial claim on first dibs too.

 

First responders, military personnel, medical personnel, assisted living staff, assisted living residents, others over 80, those with weakened immune systems, etc. will get in line ahead of me when it comes to vaccinations.

 

No one knows how long the immunity lasts.  (Seven coronavirus types infect human -- covid-19, SARS, MERS, and four types of cold. When you have a cold from one of the coronavirus types, you have immunity from that specific type of cold for about three months.)

 

No one knows whether we will need a second shot in six months or two years. 

 

I'm ready to cruise again.  Our family cruise in April with adult children was cancelled. Our New Year's Eve cruise with adult children was cancelled. (Building up OBC.  For when?). I want to cruise, but I don't want to just make circles in the ocean for a week with a stop at a private island or two and no opportunity to take excursions. 

 

Our family will probably cruise again in 2022.  It is too iffy to schedule and cancel their vacation plans again this spring.

When you give them 2 bill, you get to call it whatever you want.  Let us let the future needs get determined as we go along and enjoy some good news.  The cold water throw on can wait.  

[bitemyfly]

This should be an exciting time for the industry, one vaccination showing great results , others right behind it.

treatment .. the monoconlin antibody cocktail just got emergency permission as it goes thru late stage trials.

effective treatment and vaccination will get it back to post covid .. yes there will be area in the globe that will lag , but cruising will get back when peeps know there is effect treatment and prevention 

[chengkp75]

2 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

The logistics are daunting, that said, what are the options?  Say “it’s to hard”?  Where there is a will there is a way.  

My point is, that regardless of how many doses the manufacturer has ready, it is not going to be available in bulk overnight.

[jimbo5544]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

My point is, that regardless of how many doses the manufacturer has ready, it is not going to be available in bulk overnight.

I get it, understand.  

[Joe817]

21 minutes ago, fyree39 said:

Uh, oh. Cold water.....https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5727/

Indeed. Come on vaccine!