New Covid-19 Cruise Ship Rules

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

3 minutes ago, Eddie Wilson said:

 

To be a little fair, or fairer, it’s not just the cruise world that will have a new normal, the entire world will.  Amusement parks, air travel, hotels, concerts, sporting events, everything all the way down the line to my nieces dance recital will change.  So I think a person who loves cruises, who has adapted to the new normal of life, will not be so shocked upon a return to cruising.

 

Life has always had its moments, and cruising vacations are a wonderful escape to forget about the routines at home.  They will still be an escape.

 

Just an opinion.

 

Eddie

 

Indeed. Way too many people are still deluding themselves with the idea that a return to 2019 living is just around the corner. 
 

[Pandamonia]

6 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

Indeed. Way too many people are still deluding themselves with the idea that a return to 2019 living is just around the corner. 

 

 

 

Maybe not just over the next hill but people want their lives back. Any company who thinks forcing people to live like they are on a plague ship will be in for a bigger shock. In the UK the summer last year looked almost normal for a while. I expect people will want to get back to that as soon as possible. NZ and AUS are living like its 2018 with the exception of international travel.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Pandamonia

[Eddie Wilson]

10 hours ago, Billy Baltic said:

I genuinely hope I’m wrong but I don’t see a sustainable market for cruise lines to restart their businesses anytime soon. Even one Oasis class ship at half capacity will need 3000 paying customers. If that is running on a 7 day schedule that’s over 12000 people a month. Take out all the ‘stay home’ and ‘Other holidays’ that you mention and I don’t think the numbers add up. 
 

 

I agree the demand will be lower, the question is.....How much lower?

 

In 2019 the Port of Miami averaged 130,000+ passengers per week, or 560,000+ per month.  I don’t anticipate, and I imagine the cruise industry doesn’t anticipate those numbers returning for a few years.  But there will be fewer ships and reduced capacity.

 

The longer it takes for demand to return means the lower the fares will be for those willing to partake.

 

Eddie

[SNJCruisers]

3 hours ago, Eddie Wilson said:

The longer it takes for demand to return means the lower the fares will be for those willing to partake.

Or the flip side to that hypothesis is that since demand is low combined with the many 125% FCC's that need to be burned combined with as much money as possible needs to be added to the coffers once cruising resumes, then the fares will be higher.

[masteradept]

Anecdotally on the Quantum sailings out of Singapore, I'd say that on average despite capacity restrictions, fares have been considerably lower than pre-Covid (around $200-300 USD for a 4 night cruise in a balcony) rather than higher. Of course, there could be a couple of reasons:
 

1. Not as many Singapore residents have a lot of FCC to burn

2. No port stops so people are spending more on the ship (casino, specialty dining, wifi etc.)

 

 

[Iamcruzin]

34 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

Or the flip side to that hypothesis is that since demand is low combined with the many 125% FCC's that need to be burned combined with as much money as possible needs to be added to the coffers once cruising resumes, then the fares will be higher.

Those FCCs need to be used. It may even boil down to people settling for a ship or literary that is not ideal just so they can use them before they expire. If the CDC and the cruise lines are waiting for the vaccine to be fully rolled out they are in for a long wait. My wife tells me that even though  the governor has expanded the qualifications for those getting the vaccine the hospital still hasn't finished vaccinating the patients 75 and over. There are just no vaccines available. She spends all day fielding calls from vaccine qualified  people name dropping thinking that they will go to the front of the line. The practice has no pull of authorization to schedule vaccines.

[Missusdubbya]

6 hours ago, Pandamonia said:

Maybe not just over the next hill but people want their lives back. Any company who thinks forcing people to live like they are on a plague ship will be in for a bigger shock. In the UK the summer last year looked almost normal for a while. I expect people will want to get back to that as soon as possible. NZ and AUS are living like its 2018 with the exception of international travel.

This is incorrect: 909 Australians have died, unemployment and personal debt has increased, many businesses have gone out of business etc etc. Many Australians cannot yet return to Australia due to capped international returns. 

 

We still have sporadic lockdowns when cases increase - we recently had a 3 night lockdown here in Brisbane when there was community transmission.

 

We are very lucky due to geography and good government decision-making processes, but we are also affected.

[Ocean Boy]

9 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

Or the flip side to that hypothesis is that since demand is low combined with the many 125% FCC's that need to be burned combined with as much money as possible needs to be added to the coffers once cruising resumes, then the fares will be higher.

I suspect you are correct about the higher fares. Not only are there plenty of 125% FCC's that need to be used, but RCI would prefer those FCC's not cover the entire cruise fare and would love for those certificate holders ro kick in some more money.

 

No FCC's for me, only refunds or refundable deposits. The last thing I would want is the pressure of having to take an unwanted cruise or loose  my funds.

[Ourusualbeach]

12 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I suspect you are correct about the higher fares. Not only are there plenty of 125% FCC's that need to be used, but RCI would prefer those FCC's not cover the entire cruise fare and would love for those certificate holders ro kick in some more money.

Royal now allows FCC’s to be stacked and shared so I’m sure lots of people will be able to use theirs up without paying any more....or at least not nearly as much when they only allowed one FCC per booking. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

21 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

I agree. I think the cruise lines also agree and realize that capacity will be down which explains the big jump in price for next year.  Those 125% FCCs won't buy much.

Yes, long-term price increases have looked pretty much inevitable since this whole mess started.
 

Fain, Donald and del Rio have burned through a ton of cash in 11 months. Far worse, the cruise lines each borrowed billions & billions more. Regardless of whether those were wise & necessary decisions, that's all debt needing to be repaid - and when you dig down, the cruise lines have only their customers as a cash source.

 

With scrappers busily dismantling a virtual fleet of cruise ships right now,

supply is going to be way down. Particularly for the bargain cruises - because it's the old ship serving secondary and tertiary markets that got beached.

 

 

 

[Biker19]

12 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

With scrappers busily dismantling a virtual fleet of cruise ships right now,

supply is going to be way down.

Not for RCI - Wonder and Odyssey will add way more berths than the loss via the sale of Empress and Majesty (and a couple of Vision class ships in the not too distant future). Granted, the avg PP price may go up some, but berths are not going down.

[Eddie Wilson]

10 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

Or the flip side to that hypothesis is that since demand is low combined with the many 125% FCC's that need to be burned combined with as much money as possible needs to be added to the coffers once cruising resumes, then the fares will be higher.

 

You know I think we are both correct, some specific sailings will and can be higher cost, while others will and can be lower.  

 

I think in the intermediate term, overall as they enter the process of adding additional ships to active duty, many customers will be happy with pricing.

 

That is, let’s assume they start with one ship, requiring a demand of 3,000 per week.  A Couple of weeks later adding one or two ships to the supply side means they will require a demand of say 7,500 per week.  A month later, more ships increase the needed demand to say 12,500 etc, etc.  

 

At the same time Carnival, NCL, X, MSC, Disney, Virgin etc will also be adding to the supply side.  To entice the demand side, the up front prices should remain very reasonable for the consumer for a couple of years.  I feel the on board costs and fees may slightly increase, which is why it is important for the consumer to consider other lines offerings such as included grats, included drink package, included specialty dinning, wi-fi and anything else.  

 

Thinking out loud, I think any line can build loyalty over this intermediate term by enhancing the on board experience, especially if the off board options are limited.   As mentioned on these boards, the quality of shows on smaller ships, the quality of meals in the MDR, the quality of cruise staff run events could all be enhanced at a relatively low overall cost.  

 

Just an opinion,

Eddie

[bucfan2]

I believe when cruising returns, the initial demand will be there.  I know I sure miss cruising.

 

Then reality sets in.  I love the heat and humidity...but truly imagine wearing a mask on the pool deck while in port in one of the islands, especially for those accustomed to 20 degree weather in the winter....what a pleasurable experience it's sure to be.

 

Looks good on paper...and we'll most likely try it....just afraid it'll be a one-n-done.

Edited February 2, 2021 by bucfan2
typo

[SherriZ366]

14 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Royal now allows FCC’s to be stacked and shared so I’m sure lots of people will be able to use theirs up without paying any more....or at least not nearly as much when they only allowed one FCC per booking. 

I will probably stack my FCCs when RCI first opens up for booking or before they expire.  We have cruises booked for July, August, October and December.  Hope the odds are with me.  

 

I don't have as many FCCs as some folks do (or in large amounts) as we mostly cancelled under Cruise with Confidence and I have FCCs for the deposits (usually the $200 Book on Board deposit.)

Edited February 3, 2021 by SherriZ366

[Etta1213]

15 hours ago, bucfan2 said:

..

but truly imagine wearing a mask on the pool deck while in port in one of the islands, especially for those accustomed to 20 degree weather in the winter....what a pleasurable experience it's sure to be.

 

Wouldn't the lounge chairs be far enough apart to allow a seated person to slip the mask down?

[bucfan2]

3 hours ago, Etta1213 said:

Wouldn't the lounge chairs be far enough apart to allow a seated person to slip the mask down?

 

Sure hope so.  It's all just conjecture now...guess we have to wait until the final 'law' comes out.  Now they're saying double masks are good - maybe spacesuits next?  All the best.  Stay scared.

[Eddie Wilson]

19 hours ago, bucfan2 said:

I believe when cruising returns, the initial demand will be there.  I know I sure miss cruising.

 

Then reality sets in.  I love the heat and humidity...but truly imagine wearing a mask on the pool deck while in port in one of the islands, especially for those accustomed to 20 degree weather in the winter....what a pleasurable experience it's sure to be.

 

Looks good on paper...and we'll most likely try it....just afraid it'll be a one-n-done.

 

I agree with your assessment.  Initial (short term) demand is pent-up due to missing the cruise experience and the cramming of a years worth of lift and shift on top of already booked cruises.  

Intermediate term demand is tougher, foe the reason you mentioned and others, which is why I see favorable pricing. 

Long term demand......may be a dart throw.

 

Eddie

[Mapleleafforever]

On 2/1/2021 at 10:48 PM, Iamcruzin said:

Those FCCs need to be used. It may even boil down to people settling for a ship or literary that is not ideal just so they can use them before they expire. If the CDC and the cruise lines are waiting for the vaccine to be fully rolled out they are in for a long wait. My wife tells me that even though  the governor has expanded the qualifications for those getting the vaccine the hospital still hasn't finished vaccinating the patients 75 and over. There are just no vaccines available. She spends all day fielding calls from vaccine qualified  people name dropping thinking that they will go to the front of the line. The practice has no pull of authorization to schedule vaccines.

Getting the passengers vaccinated will be the easy peasy part. Good luck getting enough crew vaccinated in the next year or 2. 

[Ourusualbeach]

5 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Getting the passengers vaccinated will be the easy peasy part. Good luck getting enough crew vaccinated in the next year or 2. 

Once the US has finished vaccinating their citizens I would imagine that the vaccine will be available for private companies to purchase.  While the crew may be delayed in getting their vaccines I don't think it will be nearly as long as you suggest.

[Mapleleafforever]

5 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Once the US has finished vaccinating their citizens I would imagine that the vaccine will be available for private companies to purchase.  While the crew may be delayed in getting their vaccines I don't think it will be nearly as long as you suggest.

That will still take us into 2022. Soooooo much can happen from now until then though. 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/VACCINE-CALCULATOR/rlgvdgewwpo/

[Ourusualbeach]

5 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

That will still take us into 2022. Soooooo much can happen from now until then though. 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/VACCINE-CALCULATOR/rlgvdgewwpo/

Not sure if that estimate is any different than other but the ones I have seen only account for approved vaccines.  There are still more to be approved that will speed up the process.

[SilkySal]

9 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Not sure if that estimate is any different than other but the ones I have seen only account for approved vaccines.  There are still more to be approved that will speed up the process.

Yes, like Johnson & Johnson!

[Mapleleafforever]

8 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Not sure if that estimate is any different than other but the ones I have seen only account for approved vaccines.  There are still more to be approved that will speed up the process.

Like I said, soooooo much can happen between now and then. 

[M&A]

5 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Getting the passengers vaccinated will be the easy peasy part. Good luck getting enough crew vaccinated in the next year or 2. 

But if all the passengers are vaccinated then as far as the cruise lines are concerned that is the most important thing.  Passenger aren't going to be infected by a cruise member and a cruise member won't be infected by a passenger.  It's likely they would just keep testing crew members until they do get a vaccine down the line sometime.

[not-enough-cruising]

1 minute ago, M&A said:

But if all the passengers are vaccinated then as far as the cruise lines are concerned that is the most important thing.  Passenger aren't going to be infected by a cruise member and a cruise member won't be infected by a passenger.  It's likely they would just keep testing crew members until they do get a vaccine down the line sometime.

If you mandate passenger vaccines, but do not vaccinate crew; you have achieved absolutely nothing.