WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT HAL WILL SAIL IN 2021 or WILL IT BE 2022

[KirkNC]

It will be interesting to watch as this unfolds.  There are different camps obviously, some will go regardless, some will say no way.  I will be curious how those who do go will feel about it after the fact.  Obviously cruising needs to go through a restart and the road will probably be a bit bumpy.  

[terrydtx]

22 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

It will be interesting to watch as this unfolds.  There are different camps obviously, some will go regardless, some will say no way.  I will be curious how those who do go will feel about it after the fact.  Obviously cruising needs to go through a restart and the road will probably be a bit bumpy.  

If the major cruise lines do not start up later this year, they may never as they continue to bleed their available operating capital. 

 

[Hlitner]

The "cruise lover" in me is irrational so we still have 3 cruises booked (Oct 21 in Caribbean, Dec 21 Central/South America and April 22 in Japan).   The rational part of me, which spend over 35 years working in the healthcare insurance industry, tells me that it is likely that the first two of those cruises will get cancelled and the Asian cruise is about a 50-50 shot.  

 

DW and I are already working on our future "wish list" based on the possibility that cruises will never be anything close to what we have loved for over forty years.  Accordingly, while we still have those 3 booked cruises on our agenda we will likely spend a lot more time on independent land trips in various places around the world (as countries start to reopen for tourism).    I fear that "social distancing" will become a norm for the foreseeable future as folks do their best to protect themselves from COVID and other bugs.   Cruise ships (especially larger ships) cannot possibly accommodate social distancing because of their heavy reliance on vertical transportation (i.e. elevators) and limited space.  Can a 100% vaccination policy get us all past the social distancing issue?  I am not sure.

 

Hank 

[KirkNC]

2 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

If the major cruise lines do not start up later this year, they may never as they continue to bleed their available operating capital. 

 

I agree and IMO it’s a distinct possibility that we will see bankruptcies and/or consolidations/additional ship sales.

[KirkNC]

2 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

The "cruise lover" in me is irrational so we still have 3 cruises booked (Oct 21 in Caribbean, Dec 21 Central/South America and April 22 in Japan).   The rational part of me, which spend over 35 years working in the healthcare insurance industry, tells me that it is likely that the first two of those cruises will get cancelled and the Asian cruise is about a 50-50 shot.  

 

DW and I are already working on our future "wish list" based on the possibility that cruises will never be anything close to what we have loved for over forty years.  Accordingly, while we still have those 3 booked cruises on our agenda we will likely spend a lot more time on independent land trips in various places around the world (as countries start to reopen for tourism).    I fear that "social distancing" will become a norm for the foreseeable future as folks do their best to protect themselves from COVID and other bugs.   Cruise ships (especially larger ships) cannot possibly accommodate social distancing because of their heavy reliance on vertical transportation (i.e. elevators) and limited space.  Can a 100% vaccination policy get us all past the social distancing issue?  I am not sure.

 

Hank 

I am surprised you have two booked in 2021 but as you said, cruising can make us (I am guilty as well) a bit irrational.  When we booked our 2022 cruises I thought for sure cruising would be back on its feet by then.  Now I seriously question that conclusion.

[KirkNC]

12 hours ago, Sunshine3601 said:

Yes, rcl started offering their new itineraries out of Barbados starting either end of november or beginning of december 2021.  They had great prices with great itineraries so we booked a suite for a b2b for feb 2022.

I will be interested to see how well these sell.  I don’t really want to get in a plane right now so it won’t work for us but I am sure some will jump on it.

[Mosaic]

By the end of the year.  Pax and crew will have vaccinations and testing before boarding.  Mandatory and still with masks.  Ships will not be to capacity.

[iancal]

We have three potential trips in mind.   Nothing booked until we know we can travel with a large degree of certainty.    

 

The first is Sept/Oct.   We have pretty much resolved ourselves to writing this one off.

 

The second is Nov/Dec.  We are reluctantly coming to the conclusions that this probably will not happen and that we should stop daydreaming about it in order to eliminate disappointment

 

The third is Jan/Feb/March or Feb/March.   This is the only one that we feel may happen if the stars align for us.  Just maybe.

 

This covid business is not over by a long shot.  The situation continues to change.  So really, it is anyone's guess.   Vaccinations are merely one piece of an ever changing puzzle.   That is why we are not committing one dime to any travel product.

 

 One thing for certain, we have no intention of getting on the book/rebook/FCC treadmill.  It is a game designed by the cruise lines for their benefit.....not mine.  Ditto for airlines.

Edited February 4, 2021 by iancal

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, Mosaic said:

By the end of the year.  Pax and crew will have vaccinations and testing before boarding.  Mandatory and still with masks.  Ships will not be to capacity.

Could be & it is a test of time . All will be known as it is known 

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, Mosaic said:

By the end of the year.  Pax and crew will have vaccinations and testing before boarding.  Mandatory and still with masks.  Ships will not be to capacity.

I have posted (for many months) there we see the ONLY way forward for cruises is to adopt a 100% mandatory vaccination policy for crew and passengers.   However, after reading other opinions I now think that the solution may not be that simple.  There are two major issues that may create two long term problems for the cruise industry.  1.  There has still been no definitive report on whether vaccinated folks can still spread (asymtomatic spread) COVID to others.  Although there has been a recent report on the Astrazenica/Oxford vaccine we still await news about the other vaccines.  Without that guarantee of no spread....most ports are not going to welcome cruise ships.  and 2.  At this time there are no vaccines approved for children.  While there can certainly be adults only cruises, such a policy would cripple much of the cruise industry.

 

My own opinion is that cruising will not be successful until it can return to something close to pre-covid standards.  The idea of wearing masks everywhere on ships is not going to be popular and social distancing is almost impossible on a cruise ship (especially large ships).  Operating vessels with a severely limited capacity would substantially reduce revenue at the very time that cruise lines need increased revenue to simply deal with their newly acquired debt service obligations.  Mass market cruise lines greatly depend on maximizing onboard revenue to make a profit and this will be severely curtailed as long as ships must operate at a lower capacity.

 

Nobody on CC hopes I am wrong more then myself.  DW and I have considered cruising a major part of our lives (we sometimes spend over 100 days a year on ships) and like most here on CC we miss our favorite form of travel.  We can (and will) adapt to a world without cruising but are keeping our fingers crossed that the cruise industry will somehow find a way forward.

 

Hank

[Sunshine3601]

4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I will be interested to see how well these sell.  I don’t really want to get in a plane right now so it won’t work for us but I am sure some will jump on it.

I agree, we don't want to hop on a plane anytime soon either but I hope that by Feb 2022 we are All in a much better place with this virus and vaccinations

[kazu]

4 hours ago, Mosaic said:

By the end of the year.  Pax and crew will have vaccinations and testing before boarding.  Mandatory and still with masks.  Ships will not be to capacity.

 

I am now not so sure.  Canada has banned cruises ships for another year until Feb. 2022.  https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/02/government-of-canada-announces-one-year-ban-for-pleasure-craft-and-cruise-vessels.html

 

 

The order can be rescinded if things improve but this doesn’t bode well IMO.

[Cruise Suzy]

29 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

I am now not so sure.  Canada has banned cruises ships for another year until Feb. 2022.  https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/02/government-of-canada-announces-one-year-ban-for-pleasure-craft-and-cruise-vessels.html

 

 

The order can be rescinded if things improve but this doesn’t bode well IMO.

 

Sounds like the final nail in the coffin for Alaskan cruises this year. Mine included.

[kazu]

17 minutes ago, Cruise Suzy said:

 

Sounds like the final nail in the coffin for Alaskan cruises this year. Mine included.

 

I’m afraid so unless the cruise lines can get a pass out of having to stop in a foreign port.

[KirkNC]

This was very predictable.

[Mickb]

I think it is extremely unlikely that the Mediterranean will be possible this year. Maybe the transatlantics will go as cruise companies want to reposition their ships back to the Caribbean for the winter in the hope that there is a winter season.

The vaccination programme in Europe is very slow to get off the ground and until a very substantial majority of the population are vaccinated, European countries will not open their borders.

[boom_boom]

For me a "cruise to nowhere" or one where I am required to use a ship's tour is a non--starter. Rather stay home and drink better wine.. Required vaccine, masks, limits on elevators, limits on seating a shows/dining rooms I can adjust to and live with.

Hope we can do the Kdam in Jan. 2022.

[crusinbanjo]

Required vaccine yep, I’m on board with that, face masks, limits on everything and ships tours only?  Not so much, I’ll stay home until it all gets close to normal again.

[Hlitner]

5 hours ago, Mickb said:

I think it is extremely unlikely that the Mediterranean will be possible this year. Maybe the transatlantics will go as cruise companies want to reposition their ships back to the Caribbean for the winter in the hope that there is a winter season.

The vaccination programme in Europe is very slow to get off the ground and until a very substantial majority of the population are vaccinated, European countries will not open their borders.

Not sure where they will dock on this side of the pond.  Canada has banned all cruise ships until at least Feb 28, 2022.  The USA currently has rules that prohibit any cruises that are longer then 7 days in length, but even those ships need to comply with very stringent CDC Guidelines (no ship has even tried).

 

Hank

[Balliett]

Well, I have two cruises booked.  One in Alaska in August, 2021 (looks less likely today as Canada bans cruises for 2021, subject to change) and one in July in Europe.  But here is an optimistic note that Europe may happen: 

LONDON — Britain is on a pace to give the first shot of a two-dose coronavirus vaccine to its entire population by the end of June, if it can avoid supply and logistical issues that threaten to slow one of the world’s fastest rollouts.

The most vulnerable will get their first doses much sooner — likely over the next two weeks — which could dramatically reduce deaths. People over 70, care home residents and workers, health and social care workers, and those whose health problems make them extremely vulnerable are all on schedule to receive their first vaccine shots before Feb. 15. Together these groups have accounted for 88 percent of all Covid-19 deaths.

The timeline shows the promise of vaccination as a path out of the deadliest stage of the pandemic in the countries that are moving quickly. Early data out of Israel shows a significant drop in infection after just one shot, and a recent analysis suggested that the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine not only provides good protection against illness and death but also also has potential to reduce transmission of the virus. Scientists have said the results are promising but must still be confirmed.

As of Wednesday, the U.K. had vaccinated over 15 percent of its population, more than anywhere in the world aside from Israel and the United Arab Emirates. The United States was over 8 percent, and the European Union was below 3 percent.

  

[Mickb]

It is extremely unlikely that Europe will have completed its vaccination programme by July. In the UK - everybody over 70 will have received their first dose by 15th Feb but second doses will not be given until 12 weeks have passed, which takes us to May. Europe is way behind. Sorry to say your July cruise looks pretty unlikely.

[PROCRUISE]

On 2/4/2021 at 3:41 PM, Cruise Suzy said:

 

Sounds like the final nail in the coffin for Alaskan cruises this year. Mine included.

Fingers crossed. Moved our last week in August Alaskan cruise on the Zuiderdam out of Vancouver to the Oosterdam, out of Seattle. Not sure that will sail either, but the change actually saved us a few bucks and the perks all came with the change and the OBC too. Since final payment is not until May, we should have a better idea what our chances will be then of actually going.

[KU1and2]

On 2/3/2021 at 3:48 PM, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

I think the Rotterdam will sail  in 2021

But will there be passengers on her?

[iceman93]

On 2/4/2021 at 2:35 PM, boom_boom said:

For me a "cruise to nowhere" or one where I am required to use a ship's tour is a non--starter. Rather stay home and drink better wine.. Required vaccine, masks, limits on elevators, limits on seating a shows/dining rooms I can adjust to and live with.

Not trying to discount your view at all, but I'm the exact opposite!  I'll "cruise to nowhere" and don't mind only using ship's excursions, but if they require masks or limit spacing on board then that's a complete and total no-go for me.

[Sir PMP]

12 hours ago, iceman93 said:

Not trying to discount your view at all, but I'm the exact opposite!  I'll "cruise to nowhere" and don't mind only using ship's excursions, but if they require masks or limit spacing on board then that's a complete and total no-go for me.

Same here, I like fresh ocean air not filtered.