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The Final Shot


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On 2/19/2021 at 3:26 PM, BoozinCroozin said:

So, in the US, you only have to show "proof" not verification. Because your medical records are protected by HIPAA laws, an industry like the cruise lines cannot question what you are willing to provide as proof. All I need is get a forged card from China (that are easily available all over the place now), have my child's name on it, and all is good. Got it! So either the face the massive backlash and potential litigation if they place the requirements on or they accept anything as proof no matter what age (in the US).

May I point out that authorities are well aware of these and aware of the so-called paid vaccine sites. And why support China's hacking?

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On 2/19/2021 at 3:09 PM, cruisemom42 said:

 

 

FACT:  It has already been reported that testing of the vaccine in decreasing age cohorts is already underway:  right now for those down to age 12, followed by those to age 9 and so on. Fauci went on record as saying that by the time the 2021 fall school year starts, vaccines may be approved for all school-age children:

 

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-pandemic-infectious-diseases-coronavirus-vaccine-47af1ca6b75a2cedaac7923b7b084404

 

 

 

Give Dr. Fauci a week and he'll reverse his tune.  Been wrong more than right since May.  Maybe April.

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2 hours ago, capriccio said:

That is no longer true. 

 

Airline passengers do require a Covid test.  From the State Department's website (https://mx.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/covid-19-information/) issued by the US Embassy Mexico City:

 

Last updated:  [02/9/21]

(Original date: May 2, 2020)

Effective January 26, all airline passengers to the United States ages two years and older must provide a negative COVID-19 viral test taken within three calendar days of travel. Alternatively, travelers to the U.S. may provide documentation from a licensed health care provider of having recovered from COVID-19 in the 90 days preceding travel.

At this point in time, those returning via land or sea do not have the same requirement.

This requirement does not apply to travelers entering the United States by land or sea or to children under two years of age.  It applies to U.S. citizens, as well as foreign nationals, regardless of vaccination status.

 

 

That applies to air border crossing only, there is no such requirement at the land border.  This is why Ensenada makes alot of sense from a cruise perspective.  

 

The Tijuana border is unpleasant to cross, but the restrictions crossing there are minimal, which could make it a viable workaround for cruising.

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2 hours ago, crewsweeper said:

Give Dr. Fauci a week and he'll reverse his tune.  Been wrong more than right since May.  Maybe April.

Care to give verifiable and reputable citations to support your claim. As more data becomes available change occurs.

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14 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

That applies to air border crossing only, there is no such requirement at the land border.  This is why Ensenada makes alot of sense from a cruise perspective.  

 

The Tijuana border is unpleasant to cross, but the restrictions crossing there are minimal, which could make it a viable workaround for cruising.

 

Living on the east coast 🙂my first thoughts were the comments about using Cancun as a terminal port.  That would definitely involve air transportation for US passengers. 

 

We have flown to the west coast to cruise out of LA three times (to South America, Panama Canal, and a Coastal cruise).  The thought of having to cross the Tijuana border would make me think twice about any of the LA itineraries.  The hassles and time commitment involved in getting to/from the ship, especially when flying into LA or San Diego (with few non stop flights from the east coast) would probably be enough of a disincentive.  But maybe enough west coast locals could fill the ships?

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2 minutes ago, capriccio said:

 

Living on the east coast 🙂my first thoughts were the comments about using Cancun as a terminal port.  That would definitely involve air transportation for US passengers. 

 

We have flown to the west coast to cruise out of LA three times (to South America, Panama Canal, and a Coastal cruise).  The thought of having to cross the Tijuana border would make me think twice about any of the LA itineraries.  The hassles and time commitment involved in getting to/from the ship, especially when flying into LA or San Diego (with few non stop flights from the east coast) would probably be enough of a disincentive.  But maybe enough west coast locals could fill the ships?

My understanding is the border crossing is a hassle only on the return to the US, they pretty much wave tourists through on entrance to Mexico. 

 

Park in a lot on the US side, walk across and catch a shuttle to the ship, is what I am thinking.  On the way back, shuttle drops you off at the by foot crossing.  A few unpleasant hours in exchange for an unrestricted cruise sounds like a reasonable trade in the current environment.

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This thread made me think of Brownsville, TX where one could cross the border on land and sail from Matamoros, MX (taking a bus 45 minutes to the port at Playa Bagdad) and cruising the Caribbean.  Now all we need is a cruise ship port at Playa Bagdad! 😜

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On 2/19/2021 at 11:04 PM, OZ. said:

Why shouldn’t they be banned if not vaccinated? If it is required then that is their rule. Pregnant women after a certain time in their pregnancy aren’t allowed to cruise either. A class action lawsuit is ridiculous. This will eventually go away.

It will very hard to class if the rules of Cruising/Engagement are spelled out "NO VACCINE NO CRUISE"

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2 hours ago, ninjacat123 said:

This thread made me think of Brownsville, TX where one could cross the border on land and sail from Matamoros, MX (taking a bus 45 minutes to the port at Playa Bagdad) and cruising the Caribbean.  Now all we need is a cruise ship port at Playa Bagdad! 😜

Build on and they will come.

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8 hours ago, capriccio said:

That is no longer true. 

 

Airline passengers do require a Covid test.  From the State Department's website (https://mx.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/covid-19-information/) issued by the US Embassy Mexico City:

 

This really isn't a factor for almost people living in San Diego and for many in Southern California at large use land borders.  Even the Cross Border Express bridge which connects a "terminal" on the US side directly to the Tijuana airport is exempt from any testing requirements. 

https://www.crossborderxpress.com/en/

"Restrictions for “non-essential” travel continue until further notice for non-U.S. citizens and non-residents traveling to the United States. Proof of a negative COVID-19 test is not required for CBX passengers. Learn more about the safety measures we have implemented and how to make your crossing through CBX a touchless experience"

 

9 hours ago, jfunk138 said:

I think the key is Mexico's definition of "essential".  They consider tourism "essential" to their economy, so anyone with money to spend is admitted at the land border.

 

At the federal level this is certainly true whether it is admitted or not formally.  Locally, some people got really upset with this "open door" policy and temporarily blocked the border for incoming traffic in a couple of places last summer including one to a popular beach resort frequented by people from Arizona.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/05/mexico-arizona-coronavirus-border-349349

Sonoyta Mayor José Ramos Arzate issued a statement Saturday “inviting U.S. tourists not to visit Mexico.”

Local residents organized to block the road with their cars on the Mexican side Saturday.

Video posted by residents showed several travelers complaining that they had a right to cross because they were Mexican citizens. The road is the quickest route to the seaside resort of Puerto Peñasco, also known as Rocky Point.

Ramos Arzate wrote that people from the United States should only be allowed in “for essential activities, and for that reason, the checkpoint and inspection point a few meters from the Sonoyta-Lukeville AZ crossing will continue operating.”

 

21 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

No trade off. Sick people can't work, governments have to think about their whole economy not just the tourist industry. 

 

It is a trade-off whether you or I like it.  Mexico is the country I know best outside the US and I can tell you that work has never stopped regardless of the toll of the pandemic.    All through the pandemic work has remained pretty much as normal for most Mexican workers - regardless of economic sector.   The fact that I have seen lots of WhatsApp messages regarding elderly people dying never changed what was going on economically and with people showing up for work.

 

The thing that you need to realize is that tourism, while an important source of revenue, isn't everything in an economically diversified country like Mexico where tourism represents a similar amount of GDP activity to that in France and much less than that in Spain.   

 

https://data.oecd.org/industry/tourism-gdp.htm

image.thumb.png.4dbe1104bb392d452eabfb17cd3fa6db.png

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6 hours ago, ninjacat123 said:

Now all we need is a cruise ship port at Playa Bagdad! 😜

I will pass on that one.  Tamaulipas is just about the most violent state in Mexico and has a "Do Not Travel" recommendation from the State Department. Here is the link if you want to read more--

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/mexico-travel-advisory.html

 

Playa Bagdad is especially popular with the Gulf Cartel and they like it quiet but who knows, maybe they can recruit cruise passengers as "mulas!"

 

https://insightcrime.org/news/analysis/us-borders-eastern-end-forgotten-criminal-enclave/

https://apnews.com/article/d3f0b97ae09d49f9842a92c20a70f20a

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46 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

It is a trade-off whether you or I like it.  Mexico is the country I know best outside the US and I can tell you that work has never stopped regardless of the toll of the pandemic.    All through the pandemic work has remained pretty much as normal for most Mexican workers - regardless of economic sector.   The fact that I have seen lots of WhatsApp messages regarding elderly people dying never changed what was going on economically and with people showing up for work.

 

The thing that you need to realize is that tourism, while an important source of revenue, isn't everything in an economically diversified country like Mexico where tourism represents a similar amount of GDP activity to that in France and much less than that in Spain.   

 

https://data.oecd.org/industry/tourism-gdp.htm

image.thumb.png.4dbe1104bb392d452eabfb17cd3fa6db.png

 

My point was whether you lock down or not the economy will still contract. Poverty in Mexico has only gone up during the pandemic. It certainly does not help they have no safety nets for people and the families they support when they can't work due to illness. Pandemics bring down economies whether you save lives or not. But if you want to ensure the economy can recover long term you need a healthy population to achieve this so it would be prudent to avoid all these problems in the first place by making sure that your own country has a high vaccination rate before inviting potentially infected foreigners into your country. Health and economy are intertwined there is no trade offs:

 

Data from 45 countries show containing COVID vs saving the economy is a false dichotomy

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4 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

My point was whether you lock down or not the economy will still contract. .

 

But what you said was -"No trade off. Sick people can't work, governments have to think about their whole economy not just the tourist industry."   

 

Of course a pandemic will impose a cost.  The question is what set of decisions - all of which involve trade-offs yield the reasonable outcomes both economically and for health.

 

4 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

Poverty in Mexico has only gone up during the pandemic.

I would guess that poverty might even have gone up somewhat in Australia.  I know it has in the US.  The real question is would it have been worse if more of the population wasn't working?

 

4 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

But if you want to ensure the economy can recover long term you need a healthy population to achieve

The population will be healthy regardless of lockdowns.  Fortunately or unfortunately this disease does seem to prey predominately on those beyond their working prime.

 

4 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

Health and economy are intertwined there is no trade offs:

Intertwined (i.e.,  interactions, interrelated, etc)  - by definition you are talking about trade offs.   Health care is part of the economy and thus health expenditures and policies involve economic trade offs.   

 

All complex decisions involve trade offs.  A simple example -  in the US COVID vaccine distribution policy is caught all about trade offs -  should the elderly receive vaccines before teachers?  What about farm workers.  All these involve trade offs with health and economic impacts.

 

 

4 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

The "study" you cite isn't all that convincing to me.  Not only do the scatter plots show a wide degree of variation, the economic performance data is only based on a single quarter (Q2 2020) when lock downs and economic shocks were at their peak.  

 

Here is what the US GDP looked like over the whole year.  It paints a different picture and suggests the real story of what worked and didn't is still to be written.    

image.png.648761ec516b61a70dc761156d005424.png

Come back with something a little better.  It's kind of surprising as the author knows statistics and other forms of uncertainty modeling really well in looking at his CV even though he works in a psychology department.  Maybe this is his first foray into economics.  

image.png

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3 hours ago, SelectSys said:

But what you said was -"No trade off. Sick people can't work, governments have to think about their whole economy not just the tourist industry."   

 

Of course a pandemic will impose a cost.  The question is what set of decisions - all of which involve trade-offs yield the reasonable outcomes both economically and for health.

 

I would guess that poverty might even have gone up somewhat in Australia.  I know it has in the US.  The real question is would it have been worse if more of the population wasn't working?

 

The population will be healthy regardless of lockdowns.  Fortunately or unfortunately this disease does seem to prey predominately on those beyond their working prime.

 

Intertwined (i.e.,  interactions, interrelated, etc)  - by definition you are talking about trade offs.   Health care is part of the economy and thus health expenditures and policies involve economic trade offs.   

 

All complex decisions involve trade offs.  A simple example -  in the US COVID vaccine distribution policy is caught all about trade offs -  should the elderly receive vaccines before teachers?  What about farm workers.  All these involve trade offs with health and economic impacts.

 

 

 

The "study" you cite isn't all that convincing to me.  Not only do the scatter plots show a wide degree of variation, the economic performance data is only based on a single quarter (Q2 2020) when lock downs and economic shocks were at their peak.  

 

Here is what the US GDP looked like over the whole year.  It paints a different picture and suggests the real story of what worked and didn't is still to be written.    

image.png.648761ec516b61a70dc761156d005424.png

Come back with something a little better.  It's kind of surprising as the author knows statistics and other forms of uncertainty modeling really well in looking at his CV even though he works in a psychology department.  Maybe this is his first foray into economics.  

image.png

 

 

I'm in the economist camp of GDP being outdated and too vague so I'm not that enthusiastic about studies that focus too heavily on GDP which was one of the reasons I liked that particular study (hopefully there will be more studies that look beyond GDP). But if GDP is your main interest just do a Google search there is a plethora of studies from around world that focus on GDP in relation to COVID response and from what I've seen they all indicate the same thing, countries that control the virus have higher GDP than countries that let it run rampant and amongst those countries that had a rampant infection the economy shrank regardless of lock downs or restrictions, the only difference was the death rates. So again bringing it back to the OP question cruise destinations from what I can tell are better off waiting to have their populations vaccinated before opening up so they don't have to deal with the question to lock down or not to lock down😄.

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7 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

I'm in the economist camp of GDP being outdated

That's fine.  Summary measures are just that, summary measures and while directionally correct - assuming they are good at all - have by definition information loss.  

 

7 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

But if GDP is your main interest just do a Google search there is a plethora of studies from around world that focus on GDP in relation to COVID response

As I said before, this is really premature and any realistic study would need to control for many factors such as the level of economic development, health system, etc.   Of course these post COVID studies will be much more difficult to perform than something in the physical sciences and maybe skewed to what the author wants to say.  Hence that old statement - "lies, damn lies and statistics!"   

 

7 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

So again bringing it back to the OP question cruise destinations from what I can tell are better off waiting to have their populations vaccinated before opening up

No problem for you having an opinion.  I am simply not as certain as you are that a "one size fits all" applies to all countries and situations.  I also totally reject your notion that policy decisions regarding COVID don't involve trade offs. Tell all of the small business owners that have lost all their life's work that trade offs don't exist. 

 

Is the petty bureaucrat who incorrectly shutdown this restaurant going to lose their livelihood from not even understanding the trade offs that allow certain businesses to operate while others are closed?  

 

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/3347217/an-la-health-inspector-is-caught-on-camera-doing-a-victory-dance-after-shutting-down-a-brewery-that-shouldve-stayed-open

But good gawdamighty, is this just a genocide of wrong. Shutting down a legally licensed business operating in good faith should be the worst moment in a person's professional life. If you're not devastated by the fact you had to look someone in the eye and tell them you're padlocking the place they've invested their money, time and sweat equity into - a brewery on Super Bowl weekend no less - then there is something deeply, deeply wrong with you. Any normal person cutting off someone's livelihood in the middle of a pandemic-fueled economic collapse should be on the verge of suicide, not doing a Happy Dance.

When this is all over - if it's ever all over - this is one of those images we need to hang onto. To remind us of what happened to Bravery Brewery and tens if not hundreds of thousands of places like it across the country. That we let petty bureaucrats, who are unelected and therefore unaccountable, get drunk with their power, while we ourselves were not allowed to get drunk.

 

Bottom line - different countries will make different decisions as to when and how to restart cruising based on their own interpretation of what's best.

Edited by SelectSys
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6 hours ago, SelectSys said:

That's fine.  Summary measures are just that, summary measures and while directionally correct - assuming they are good at all - have by definition information loss.  

 

As I said before, this is really premature and any realistic study would need to control for many factors such as the level of economic development, health system, etc.   Of course these post COVID studies will be much more difficult to perform than something in the physical sciences and maybe skewed to what the author wants to say.  Hence that old statement - "lies, damn lies and statistics!"   

 

No problem for you having an opinion.  I am simply not as certain as you are that a "one size fits all" applies to all countries and situations.  I also totally reject your notion that policy decisions regarding COVID don't involve trade offs. Tell all of the small business owners that have lost all their life's work that trade offs don't exist. 

 

Is the petty bureaucrat who incorrectly shutdown this restaurant going to lose their livelihood from not even understanding the trade offs that allow certain businesses to operate while others are closed?  

 

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/3347217/an-la-health-inspector-is-caught-on-camera-doing-a-victory-dance-after-shutting-down-a-brewery-that-shouldve-stayed-open

But good gawdamighty, is this just a genocide of wrong. Shutting down a legally licensed business operating in good faith should be the worst moment in a person's professional life. If you're not devastated by the fact you had to look someone in the eye and tell them you're padlocking the place they've invested their money, time and sweat equity into - a brewery on Super Bowl weekend no less - then there is something deeply, deeply wrong with you. Any normal person cutting off someone's livelihood in the middle of a pandemic-fueled economic collapse should be on the verge of suicide, not doing a Happy Dance.

When this is all over - if it's ever all over - this is one of those images we need to hang onto. To remind us of what happened to Bravery Brewery and tens if not hundreds of thousands of places like it across the country. That we let petty bureaucrats, who are unelected and therefore unaccountable, get drunk with their power, while we ourselves were not allowed to get drunk.

 

Bottom line - different countries will make different decisions as to when and how to restart cruising based on their own interpretation of what's best.

 

Well that article is sensationalist😳. But I guess that goes to the point of those studies. Had California prevented rampant infection spread there would be no need for lock downs and that sports bar could have kept operating. But once you have an out off control infection it's too late people just don't want to go sit at a sports bar where they could potentially catch an infection so those businesses lose anyway. Better to be like Taiwan their bars are bustling😁

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18 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Well that article is sensationalist😳. But I guess that goes to the point of those studies. Had California prevented rampant infection spread there would be no need for lock downs and that sports bar could have kept operating. But once you have an out off control infection it's too late people just don't want to go sit at a sports bar where they could potentially catch an infection so those businesses lose anyway. Better to be like Taiwan their bars are bustling😁

 

It is quite the sensational story!  Here is another one which is quite sensational related to school administration.

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/oakley-union-school-boards-resigns_n_6032526cc5b673b19b6919c1

All members of a San Francisco Bay Area school board resigned days after they were heard making disparaging comments about parents at a virtual board meeting they didn’t realize was being broadcast to the public.

The four members of Oakley Union Elementary School District Board had stepped down by Friday amid growing outrage that began with the board’s Wednesday meeting. Before the meeting officially began and unaware the public could see and hear them, they used profanity and made jokes about parents just wanting a babysitter or to smoke pot in their home.

 

After some laughter, Brizendine chimed in to commiserate with others about the growing criticism they’ve faced over closed schools, suggesting parents really want schools to reopen so they get their babysitters back.

Masadas suggested parents wanted their free time for other reasons.

“My brother had a delivery service for medical marijuana. The high clientele were the parents with their kids at school. When you have your kids at home, no more (inaudible),” Masadas said, clasping his hands on his forehead as others chuckled in the background.

 

The reason I post these stories relates to a hypothesis I have regarding COVID control success and public trust in intuitions - government, press, big business.  Right now the US population doesn't really trust any institution.  It doesn't matter who is president as this distrust goes way deeper as the public is barraged by daily abuses of this trust by these same institutions.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx

 

In contrast to the US,  New Zealand has done great perhaps in part because their population believes the government is working for them first and foremost - New Zealand First?   I would love to see the study - maybe in 5 years - showing how COVID control success is correlated with trust in institutions.   My hypothesis is that when controlled for other factors - physical isolation, age, income -  COVID success will be shown to depend on public trust and confidence in intuitions.

 

Maybe with lessons learned, more countries will have success the next time.

 

 

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4 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

It is quite the sensational story!  Here is another one which is quite sensational related to school administration.

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/oakley-union-school-boards-resigns_n_6032526cc5b673b19b6919c1

All members of a San Francisco Bay Area school board resigned days after they were heard making disparaging comments about parents at a virtual board meeting they didn’t realize was being broadcast to the public.

The four members of Oakley Union Elementary School District Board had stepped down by Friday amid growing outrage that began with the board’s Wednesday meeting. Before the meeting officially began and unaware the public could see and hear them, they used profanity and made jokes about parents just wanting a babysitter or to smoke pot in their home.

 

After some laughter, Brizendine chimed in to commiserate with others about the growing criticism they’ve faced over closed schools, suggesting parents really want schools to reopen so they get their babysitters back.

Masadas suggested parents wanted their free time for other reasons.

“My brother had a delivery service for medical marijuana. The high clientele were the parents with their kids at school. When you have your kids at home, no more (inaudible),” Masadas said, clasping his hands on his forehead as others chuckled in the background.

 

The reason I post these stories relates to a hypothesis I have regarding COVID control success and public trust in intuitions - government, press, big business.  Right now the US population doesn't really trust any institution.  It doesn't matter who is president as this distrust goes way deeper as the public is barraged by daily abuses of this trust by these same institutions.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx

 

In contrast to the US,  New Zealand has done great perhaps in part because their population believes the government is working for them first and foremost - New Zealand First?   I would love to see the study - maybe in 5 years - showing how COVID control success is correlated with trust in institutions.   My hypothesis is that when controlled for other factors - physical isolation, age, income -  COVID success will be shown to depend on public trust and confidence in intuitions.

 

Maybe with lessons learned, more countries will have success the next time.

 

You're a bit late to the party with your hypothesis😂 It is pretty much a proven fact. It is logical in practical terms, if people trust the government they are more likely to trust the COVID19 regulations and therefore comply. Compare with Bosnia that has one of the highest rates of Covid conspiracy theorists and the people have so little trust in governments or institutions they won't even believe them when they say Covid exists😳. Covid Safe rules aren't going to be effective if nobody intends on following them. Those places will struggle to get vaccination rates up and they will end up like Samoa where low rates of Measles vaccination has seen them constantly locking down due to outbreaks. It will take their economies much longer to recover with COVID19 outbreak interruptions. It is all the more reason why popular tourist destinations should be concerned about vaccinating their own population even more so than if tourists are vaccinated. Because if you have to constantly lockdown because of another outbreak tourists will start to give up on the destination anyway😕

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21 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

You're a bit late to the party with your hypothesis😂 It is pretty much a proven fact.

How so?  When do you think I made this hypothesis?  Today?  Your presumptuousness really knows no end!  Congratulations!  What a star you really are!

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

How so?  When do you think I made this hypothesis?  Today?  Your presumptuousness really knows no end!  Congratulations!  What a star you really are!

 

I was meaning you are still calling it a hypothesis when it is pretty much a proven fact backed up by multiple studies from around the world that have revealed a consistent result. No need to be so sensitive, it is all in good fun🤗

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3 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I was meaning you are still calling it a hypothesis when it is pretty much a proven fact backed up by multiple studies from around the world that have revealed a consistent result. No need to be so sensitive, it is all in good fun🤗

 

Of course this site is for entertainment.  What else could it be?  Maybe a few cruise company employees are lurking in the background but that is the rare exception.

 

With respect to your statement, I view all of the real analysis of COVID coming in the future and as such I will stick with my opinion.  You are free to yours as well. 

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1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

With respect to your statement, I view all of the real analysis of COVID coming in the future and as such I will stick with my opinion.  You are free to yours as well. 

 

To be fair it is not my opinion. I'm just relaying the information that is already out there and available considering you brought up the subject. To be honest I'm not even sure why me saying your hypothesis has been tested is such a bad thing 🙁. I thought you would be happy that other people are thinking the same thing🤔 never thought it would be assumed as an insult 😳

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