DeSantis is OK with NCL leaving Florida

[graphicguy]

Numbers are skewed because of COVID.  But, NCL is the 3rd largest cruise company in a $38B FL cruise related industry.  They're number 3 in the area.  Carnival is #1 and RCCL is #2.  NCL is #3.  Now, there isn't going to be an equal revenue split.  Let's say NCL represents 25% (not 33%).  But, NCL is coming out of the gate 1st in the Caribbean from Jamaica.  So, they'll be able to realize revenue in the Caribbean given they've been planning to sail in the Caribbean first, with or without anyone's permission to sail 100% COVID vaccine requirements, and by forging their own way...safely.  FL put the roadblock up that NCL wasn't allowed to require 100% vaccine, so NCL has been planning without FL's help (nor the CDC's help, for that matter).

 

Their revenue % will rise as a result.  I think the entire industry will realign because of the policies of the state of FL.  And, I've said before, other locales will take advantage of FL's bumbling instead of cooperation with the cruise lines to sail safely.

 

Just think of how quickly the sailings would ramp up of Desantis would allow 100% COVID requirement?  

[macandlucy]

One of them is going to have to cave, and I don't think it will be DeSantis. NCL has not made any money for a long time; they need to get sailing again. A Caribbean home port is a nice idea, but I imagine it will hurt their bottom line as it's more costly to fly to those destinations than Florida. Plus, you can't drive there.

 

Lawsuits take time, and every day that NCL isn't sailing costs money. They also risk losing passengers to other lines.

 

What a crummy spot for NCL to be in though -- first the CDC and their unreasonableness and then DeSantis and his. Why he doesn't just let the people decide which business to patronize, I don't know. But, bottom line is NCL is in the weaker position, as they have much more to lose.  My guess is NCL will cave on this, and will end at position like crew must be vaxxed and pax are "strongly encouraged" to be.

 

Popcorn worthy!

 

[oteixeira]

7 minutes ago, macandlucy said:

One of them is going to have to cave, and I don't think it will be DeSantis. NCL has not made any money for a long time; they need to get sailing again. A Caribbean home port is a nice idea, but I imagine it will hurt their bottom line as it's more costly to fly to those destinations than Florida. Plus, you can't drive there.

 

Lawsuits take time, and every day that NCL isn't sailing costs money. They also risk losing passengers to other lines.

 

What a crummy spot for NCL to be in though -- first the CDC and their unreasonableness and then DeSantis and his. Why he doesn't just let the people decide which business to patronize, I don't know. But, bottom line is NCL is in the weaker position, as they have much more to lose.  My guess is NCL will cave on this, and will end at position like crew must be vaxxed and pax are "strongly encouraged" to be.

 

Popcorn worthy!

 

Well, you may be right that it wont be DeSantis, but NCL could easily do one ship out of NOLA, one out of Galveston, one out of Mobile, etc, etc.  Remember that for the time being they are not restarting their entire fleet day one, so they don't need a dedicated terminal to turn a ship around every day in.  They can spread the fleet out across other US ports that they can rent terminal days in until things shake out...

End of the day I don't think either will budge, NCL will sail from other ports, then on Nov. 1st everything goes away and it's cruising from where ever they like pre-covid style.

 

Edited May 14, 2021 by oteixeira

[Navis]

24 minutes ago, macandlucy said:

One of them is going to have to cave, and I don't think it will be DeSantis. NCL has not made any money for a long time; they need to get sailing again. A Caribbean home port is a nice idea, but I imagine it will hurt their bottom line as it's more costly to fly to those destinations than Florida. Plus, you can't drive there.

 

Lawsuits take time, and every day that NCL isn't sailing costs money. They also risk losing passengers to other lines.

 

What a crummy spot for NCL to be in though -- first the CDC and their unreasonableness and then DeSantis and his. Why he doesn't just let the people decide which business to patronize, I don't know. But, bottom line is NCL is in the weaker position, as they have much more to lose.  My guess is NCL will cave on this, and will end at position like crew must be vaxxed and pax are "strongly encouraged" to be.

 

Popcorn worthy!

 

I don’t think it is even remotely that straight forward. Yes, NCL certainly has revenue constraint concerns ... but I’m sure what concerns them more is the possibility of another cruise COVID disaster. If that happens again, and the cruise industry is again shut down, it would have a catastrophic effect.
 

So NCL has decided that to minimize the risk of that happening, they have decided, in part, they require full vaccination for now and I don’t see them backing off of this. Also, I do NOT see this as just an NCL issue. Eventually, the other lines are going to want to start up in the US ... and if they want to avoid test sailings (which I’m sure they will) they are going to have to be able to establish the 98/95% threshold. At that point, Carnival and RCCL will be in the same boat as NCL. 
 

Finally, I do think much has changed in the past year and much has been learned. I do not see another Diamond Princess in the making and I also see a more surgical approach to be taken by the CDC in the future should an issue arise. For example, I don’t see cruising being completely shut down if one or two ships have a breakout. But I CAN see the CDC shutting down that line until they get better protocols to control spread.

 

I think the whole industry knows how precarious their position is right now. They have one chance to start this up right and keep it right until COVID is a thing of the past (or at least becomes a seasonal manageable disease). NCL has steered a conservative course by requiring 100% vaccination, but who knows, based on recent guidance they may be able to provide a cruise more close to normal than any of others!  

Edited May 14, 2021 by Navis

[macandlucy]

16 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Well, you may be right that it wont be DeSantis, but NCL could easily do 1 ship out of NOLA, one out of Galviston, 1 out of Mobile, etc, etc.  Remember that for the time being they are not restarting their entire fleet day one, so they don't need a dedicated terminal to turn a ship around every day in.  They can spread the fleet out across other US ports that they can rent terminal days in until things shake out...

End of the day I don't think either will budge, NCL will sail from other ports, then on Nov. 1st everything goes away and it's cruising from where ever they like pre-covid style.

 

Well, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. FDR seems like a committed fella, but he's a businessman at the end of the day and more than anything he needs to make money. That sweet, sweet sail-from-Florida money will be too much to pass up, imo.

 

I'm sure FDR is also thinking about how devastating an outbreak on a ship would be as well, and he wants to keep that risk as low as possible. But really, with crew 100% vaxxed, and much of the population of passengers vaxxed, it's low anyway. But for sure, no cruise line wants to be the first to report an outbreak, even if it's an outbreak of just a few people.  Because even though small outbreaks like that happen everyday, everywhere, people and especially the media, will freak out if it happens on a ship.  

 

Tough time to be a cruiseline executive right now.

[susiesan]

Doesn't all of this go away Nov. 1? Isn't that when the original no sail order expires? After that date cruise lines are free to do whatever they want unless the CDC extends the no sail order again. 

 

[Navis]

15 minutes ago, susiesan said:

Doesn't all of this go away Nov. 1? Isn't that when the original no sail order expires? After that date cruise lines are free to do whatever they want unless the CDC extends the no sail order again. 

 

Technically, I think the answer is yes, the order expires at that point, but I do not see it simply expiring with no permanent guidance in place ... but I don’t think that would come from the CDC per se but from whatever regulatory agency (or agencies) has jurisdiction over US entry requirements for cruise ships.

 

I just don’t see time being the answer to all this. What I DO see is something like the US saying any cruise line entering US waters must previously establish that they have proper policies and procedures in the place to both stop the spread of COVID and to mitigate any breakout while onboard. Then they can monitor cruise lines on a case by case basis and if they see a pattern of outbreaks on one line or another ... that line can be prohibited from entering US waters until they fix their policies and procedures.

 

I don’t think it is really an option for cruise lines to just “wait this out.” To be fair, I also don’t believe that is what any of the cruise lines intend to do. They all know how much is on the line here.  

Edited May 14, 2021 by Navis

[macandlucy]

2 minutes ago, Navis said:

I don’t think it is even remotely that straight forward. Yes, NCL certainly has revenue constraint concerns ... but I’m sure what concerns them more is the possibility of another cruise COVID disaster. If that happens again, and the cruise industry is again shut down, it would have a catastrophic effect.
 

So NCL has decided that to minimize the risk of that happening, they have decided, in part, they require full vaccination for now and I don’t see them backing off of this. Also, I do NOT see this as just an NCL issue. Eventually, the other lines are going to want to start up in the US ... and if they want to avoid test sailings (which I’m sure they will) they are going to have to be able to establish the 98/95% threshold. At that point, Carnival and RCCL will be in the same boat as NCL. 
 

Finally, I do think much has changed in the past year and much has been learned. I do not see another Diamond Princess in the making and I also see a more surgical approach to be taken by the CDC in the future should an issue arise. For example, I don’t see cruising being completely shut down if one or two ships have a breakout. But I CAN see the CDC shutting down that line until they get better protocols to control spread.

 

I think the whole industry knows how precarious their position is right now. They have one chance to start this up right and keep it right until COVID is a thing of the past (or at least becomes a seasonal manageable disease). NCL has steered a conservative course by requiring 100% vaccination, but who knows, based on recent guidance they may be able to provide a cruise more close to normal than any other others!  

 

There couldn't be another Diamond Princess-like outbreak on any ship sailing from the US now, simply because there are too many people with immunity -- either naturally acquired or by vaccine. The DP had a ship full of available virus hosts; those conditions no longer exist for Covid-19. And remember, even under the ideal respiratory virus spreading conditions (the Diamond Princess in early 2020), not even half of the population contracted it. Not even close to half. 

 

I'm a pragmatist, so I think the 100% vaccination requirement is a prudent one, at least for now, at least to restore confidence through successful, outbreak-free sailings. And perhaps they would be able to drop that requirement after a short time. But I just can't see them winning this battle against DeSantis.  I think they need to sail from Florida. But, that's just a guess on my part.

 

I have had one dose of vaccine now, and plan to get the second when I can. Because I am vaccinated, I don't worry about catching covid from someone else. I do have the worry of a minor outbreak on a ship causing everyone to freak the %&$# out because we also also have a pandemic of irrationality to deal with, so NCL's 100% vaxxed cruise has appeal for that reason, but I know it's not necessary for my personal safety. 

[Navis]

8 minutes ago, macandlucy said:

 

There couldn't be another Diamond Princess-like outbreak on any ship sailing from the US now, simply because there are too many people with immunity -- either naturally acquired or by vaccine. The DP had a ship full of available virus hosts; those conditions no longer exist for Covid-19. And remember, even under the ideal respiratory virus spreading conditions (the Diamond Princess in early 2020), not even half of the population contracted it. Not even close to half. 

 

I'm a pragmatist, so I think the 100% vaccination requirement is a prudent one, at least for now, at least to restore confidence through successful, outbreak-free sailings. And perhaps they would be able to drop that requirement after a short time. But I just can't see them winning this battle against DeSantis.  I think they need to sail from Florida. But, that's just a guess on my part.

 

I have had one dose of vaccine now, and plan to get the second when I can. Because I am vaccinated, I don't worry about catching covid from someone else. I do have the worry of a minor outbreak on a ship causing everyone to freak the %&$# out because we also also have a pandemic of irrationality to deal with, so NCL's 100% vaxxed cruise has appeal for that reason, but I know it's not necessary for my personal safety. 

Ordinarily I would agree with you regarding the likelihood of another mass outbreak ... but the variants give me much pause. This virus mutates at 100x the rate of the flu and we’re already seeing double mutations so you never know. But so far, the vaccines seem to be good enough against the known variants so fingers crossed.

 

I just had my second shot a few days ago so in a few weeks I’ll join the bucket of fully vaccinated people. I am also not worried about myself per se, but what I AM worried about is what happens if the ship I’m on does have an outbreak. Will we have a place to dock? Will we be quarantined? Will we be able to get home on schedule? All those things do concern me. Now, if the world settles on an understanding that regardless of what happens on a ship, vaccinated will be free to disembark and travel home unmolested ... then sign me up! Until then, I’m sticking with 100% vaccinated cruises.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Navis

[Paphillyguy]

So I am curious as to what happens in July if the CDC and Federal government requires the vaccination rule to stand in order to be able to dock and allow passengers on at a US port.  What will the governor do then?  I do not believe the state has rule over the ports.  

[cscurlock]

2 minutes ago, Paphillyguy said:

So I am curious as to what happens in July if the CDC and Federal government requires the vaccination rule to stand in order to be able to dock and allow passengers on at a US port.  What will the governor do then?  I do not believe the state has rule over the ports.  

They do not.  What will end up happening is the cruise lines with need to run their simulated voyages with all the restrictions.  Once that is done they can begin taking unvaccinated passengers with all the rules that that entails including requiring the cruise lines to plan for housing when there is an outbreak to quarantine guests for 2 weeks upon return.  Mask wearing will be enforced.  So the cruise lines do have the option.  But I suspect the easier path will be to just pull out and run with vaccinated passengers out of other ports.  its more cost effecting and the probability of an outbreak happening and forcing the ship to return would be extremely small.  Its all about the money.  

[GonzoWCS]

16 hours ago, MichiganBound said:

Presumably someone else will purchase it if it gets to that.   Also, I expect NCL would relocate headquarters out of Florida if they stop cruising from Florida ports.  Another loss for Florida.  

At 1/2 price maybe even

[Stick93]

Doesn't matter what is said - Government always wins. No matter who is in office or what is done - you cannot fight city hall.

The cruise lines have done a whole lot of losing in the past 15 months. They will comply with anything they need to in order to make money. Moving ships is not easy and people want to leave out of Florida - its easy to get to and has the infrastructure. So they will figure it out with the Governor or they will be moving things around to catch their tails. They have a lot of $$$$ invested there to make it right. 

[graphicguy]

I know it cost me about the same to fly to Jamaica from my OH home as it does to fly to Miami.  And, I'm staying at a resort in Jamaica prior to cruising, all inclusive, for a little less than staying in a decent hotel in Miami. That's a win-win.  If NCL moves their Caribbean port to Jamaica permanently, I'd be OK with that.

[coffeebean]

3 hours ago, cscurlock said:

They do not.  What will end up happening is the cruise lines with need to run their simulated voyages with all the restrictions.  Once that is done they can begin taking unvaccinated passengers with all the rules that that entails including requiring the cruise lines to plan for housing when there is an outbreak to quarantine guests for 2 weeks upon return.  Mask wearing will be enforced.  So the cruise lines do have the option.  But I suspect the easier path will be to just pull out and run with vaccinated passengers out of other ports.  its more cost effecting and the probability of an outbreak happening and forcing the ship to return would be extremely small.  Its all about the money.  

What about providing an experience that is somewhat like the pre-pandemic experience we have all come to love about cruising all WITHOUT MASKS. 100% vaccinated cruises could offer that experience. Any un-vaccinated passenger or crew on board will most probably not allow the mask mandate to be dropped.

 

I want to cruise but without having to mask up.

[BermudaBound2014]

4 hours ago, graphicguy said:

Numbers are skewed because of COVID.  But, NCL is the 3rd largest cruise company in a $38B FL cruise related industry.  They're number 3 in the area.  Carnival is #1 and RCCL is #2.  NCL is #3.  Now, there isn't going to be an equal revenue split.  Let's say NCL represents 25% (not 33%).  But, NCL is coming out of the gate 1st in the Caribbean from Jamaica.  So, they'll be able to realize revenue in the Caribbean given they've been planning to sail in the Caribbean first, with or without anyone's permission to sail 100% COVID vaccine requirements, and by forging their own way...safely.  FL put the roadblock up that NCL wasn't allowed to require 100% vaccine, so NCL has been planning without FL's help (nor the CDC's help, for that matter).

 

Their revenue % will rise as a result.  I think the entire industry will realign because of the policies of the state of FL.  And, I've said before, other locales will take advantage of FL's bumbling instead of cooperation with the cruise lines to sail safely.

 

Just think of how quickly the sailings would ramp up of Desantis would allow 100% COVID requirement?  

 

 

Do you just make this up as you go along? NCL represents approximately 10% of the cruise market (not 25% of 33% as you stated). This chart is from 2019 so it's not "skewed due to covid" as you suggested. I think you may be well served to read the last few quarterly reports from each of the cruise lines that are traded publicly. It's likely you will gain some knowledge you actually find interesting, in the very least it will help you to look slightly more informed. 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4273824-carnival-cruise-rough-seas-ahead

 

 

BTW: Your comment "Just think of how quickly the sailings would ramp up of Desantis would allow 100% COVID requirement? is also illogical from a statistical view.

 

 

[boatseller]

Everyone just calm down, this has months to play out and at the rate the CDC is caving, this hopefully will be moot soon enough.

 

I still think there is an end-run around this whole thing that is expected and accepted.

[AstoriaPreppy]

5 hours ago, rbschultz said:

Not only that, but the cruises out of Singapore have to follow such strict guidelines including wearing a wristband for contact tracing. Hows that for freedom?

You can't *chew gum* in Singapore. People outside of America have very different perspectives on the personal liberties that do/don't matter. 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, AstoriaPreppy said:

You can't *chew gum* in Singapore. People outside of America have very different perspectives on the personal liberties that do/don't matter. 

 

I would agree, any comparison to sailing from Singapore is mute. They still allow caning as a disciplinary action and Jay Walking can get you 6 months jail time. North Americans just don't have the same mind set.

[kollegekreed]

Ok by me. Friends and I are looking to travel and Florida is the only state not pn the list I can’t see rewarding them with any tourist money right now. Bars and clubs continuously posting videos of hundreds of massless people dancing and packed in...all set. 

[coaster]

Never been to a bar with lots of people dancing and packed with people before Covid  in FL. That would of been a turnoff to me every day of the week. 

[coffeebean]

2 minutes ago, coaster said:

Never been to a bar with lots of people dancing and packed with people before Covid  in FL. That would of been a turnoff to me every day of the week. 

I guess you have not visited The Villages, FL. We seniors know how to party.

[coaster]

Why the Villages has the one of the highest recorded instances of sexually transmitted diseases in the State of FL.

 

Edited May 14, 2021 by coaster

[Langham1865]

6 hours ago, rbschultz said:

Not only that, but the cruises out of Singapore have to follow such strict guidelines including wearing a wristband for contact tracing. Hows that for freedom?

contracting Covid is a  much bigger loss of freedom...and many lines are using wristband technology to replace key cards, so no real difference

[vswan]

Two things.

 

The ships need to go somewhere. What is required for them to be able to access ports of call will be a factor in what is decided. If you can only access ports with full vaccination, that is what they will need to do. Not sure how DeSantis would deal with that.

 

There are many of us who would prefer - and many would only - sail on ships that are fully vaccinated. The 95/98% may be acceptable if this is being used to allow children to sail, but I would choose the 100%. If by having unvaccinated passengers there are stricter protocols for sailing that would also be an issue for many.