Move-Up : Who wins; who loses

[phoenix_dream]

There's a lot on these boards about Move-Up so I'm sure my question has been touched on here or there, but wanted to address this specifically.

 

Does anyone really know the logic behind who is awarded Move-up bids and who is denied?  I don't mean speculation - we've all been doing that since it began.  But is there anyone with some true information from a knowledgeable source that knows something about this?

 

Is it strictly based on who puts forth the highest bid in that category?  Or is it related to who is paying the most total cost for a cabin (original payment price, plus Move-Up bid)?  Does preference go to cruisers new to Celebrity like it often did in the old days before Move-Up began?  Is there perhaps preference, particularly with suites, to award cabins to people who have never sailed in one before with the hope that once they try it they won't want to go back?  Does anyone understand why if I bid on multiple cabin levels some of my bids get cancelled quickly while some remain as pending?  Is this strictly a matter of a lot of people already outbidding me?  I confess I may be giving the IT systems way too much credit here, but if I'm not mistaken I think this is managed by an outside source?

 

I confess I am a frustrated bidder, as I've bid many times and never won even when I've bid considerably over minimum.  I understand all of it is based on availability first and foremost - obviously winning a bid from an inside or ocean view to some kind of balcony is often easiest as there often are more of those available than suites.  I also understand that during the early post-shutdown cruises it was much easier to obtain one due to lesser capacities on ships (although I never won then either).   

 

And finally, I understand that knowing the logic behind the awarding at the end of the day won't necessarily change anything, but more clarity would be nice.

[NutsAboutGolf]

To put it simply, based on their website, their computers look at every single possible scenario with shifting staterooms around and settle on the scenario that makes the cruise line and itself the most revenue

[Nachosdelux]

the algorithms used are proprietary (secret) and any specific answer to your question would be speculative at best.  However, the previous poster gives the correct answer.

[NanaPam00]

This is one of the true mysteries of our time - It would be great if someone from the third party that runs the bidding process could speak up and shed some light....

[wrk2cruise]

5 minutes ago, NanaPam00 said:

This is one of the true mysteries of our time - It would be great if someone from the third party that runs the bidding process could speak up and shed some light....

 

If they did they would no longer be working for said third party.

[thebutlerdidit]

My question about the process is since this is a third party website that sifts through our bids, do they really know our Captain’s Club level and the appropriate multiplier and take that information into account?

 

I bid for the first time on an upcoming cruise, but I’m okay with my chosen cabin, too. 

[NutsAboutGolf]

26 minutes ago, NanaPam00 said:

This is one of the true mysteries of our time - It would be great if someone from the third party that runs the bidding process could speak up and shed some light....

They do this for other websites, while there’s some info out there, you cannot account for other bidders so it’s mostly a waste of time to research

[Jeremiah1212]

All of the big players use this same vendor. 

 

https://www.plusgrade.com/partners/

 

Bottom line is...no one knows and if they do know, they aren't going to tell you. It's not just your gross bid amount. It's also considering the chain reaction of subsequent bids that also generate revenue. The highest bidder isn't necessarily going to initiate a series of moves that brings in the most money. If your initial cabin category is one that is in demand like an SV or potentially AQ, you may have slightly better chances, especially if you're moving from an SV on E Class ships. 

 

[RichYak]

3 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

It's not just your gross bid amount. It's also considering the chain reaction of subsequent bids that also generate revenue. The highest bidder isn't necessarily going to initiate a series of moves that brings in the most money. If your initial cabin category is one that is in demand like an SV or potentially AQ, you may have slightly better chances, especially if you're moving from an SV on E Class ships. 

I agree with all of this 100%

[gold1953]

The goal is to have only inside cabins empty.

 

[NutsAboutGolf]

We just won an moveup last week but we booked somewhat last minute and there was a lot of stateroom availably.  I should note we've only won twice out of roughly ten sailings

 

[Jim_Iain]

While I agree that the logarithm is proprietary all bids are not created equal.

 

Since @phoenix_dream  was asking for only facts instead of speculation I will give one example direct from Celebrity Website -

 

Looking to take your vacation to the next level? You’re in luck. MoveUp allows you to bid on a stateroom upgrade after you’ve purchased your cruise. As a valued Captain’s Club member your bid gets a bonus boost based on your tier. So, you get more value than what you bid. Classic members get an extra 1% multiplier, Select members get a 2% multiplier, Elite members get a 3% multiplier, Elite Plus members get a 4% multiplier, and Zenith members get a 5% multiplier. 

 

 

 

 

[Mark_K]

17 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

To put it simply, based on their website, their computers look at every single possible scenario with shifting staterooms around and settle on the scenario that makes the cruise line and itself the most revenue

It appears they have two priorities, to “build loyalty and drive profitability”. One of the keys in that seems to be to maximize the total number of accepted bids.

[TeeRick]

8 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

While I agree that the logarithm is proprietary all bids are not created equal.

 

Since @phoenix_dream  was asking for only facts instead of speculation I will give one example direct from Celebrity Website -

 

Looking to take your vacation to the next level? You’re in luck. MoveUp allows you to bid on a stateroom upgrade after you’ve purchased your cruise. As a valued Captain’s Club member your bid gets a bonus boost based on your tier. So, you get more value than what you bid. Classic members get an extra 1% multiplier, Select members get a 2% multiplier, Elite members get a 3% multiplier, Elite Plus members get a 4% multiplier, and Zenith members get a 5% multiplier. 

 

 

 

 

Jim thanks for posting!  I have never seen this before.

[RichYak]

9 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

While I agree that the logarithm is proprietary all bids are not created equal.

 

Since @phoenix_dream  was asking for only facts instead of speculation I will give one example direct from Celebrity Website -

 

Looking to take your vacation to the next level? You’re in luck. MoveUp allows you to bid on a stateroom upgrade after you’ve purchased your cruise. As a valued Captain’s Club member your bid gets a bonus boost based on your tier. So, you get more value than what you bid. Classic members get an extra 1% multiplier, Select members get a 2% multiplier, Elite members get a 3% multiplier, Elite Plus members get a 4% multiplier, and Zenith members get a 5% multiplier. 

 

 

 

 

IMO, those multipliers have very little value. There's a much larger portion of your overall bid that you have no control over--what someone else is bidding for your current cabin, and so on down the line.

[phoenix_dream]

22 minutes ago, RichYak said:

IMO, those multipliers have very little value. There's a much larger portion of your overall bid that you have no control over--what someone else is bidding for your current cabin, and so on down the line.

You know what would make it interesting - if it truly is only by who bids the highest, why not make the bids visible to everyone (without names attached of course, and adjusting how they display the amounts based on whatever algorithm they use, or even tell you what position you are in the bidding).  Kind of like on Ebay.  That way if you knew you were only a few dollars short of winning a bid, you could up your bid if you wanted to.  It would create some stress of course, but it would make the whole thing transparent and people would know if they had a chance in you-know-where and could adjust their expectations accordingly. 

 

For example, right now I have a bid that is "pending" for which I bid way over mid-point (something I usually don't do).  So I am hopeful I may luck into it this time as there are cabins still available in the category.  I confess I check my account regularly even though I know I probably won't be told one way or another until right before the cruise.  So at the end of the day if I don't get it I will start my cruise disappointed and wondering how the heck much I have to bid to win!  (yes, I'll get over it, and yes, I'll do my best to have a great cruise anyway, but still, not a good way to begin the vacation).  Honestly, I would rather know now if I am even in the running and then I could adjust my expectations.

[phoenix_dream]

10 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

While I agree that the logarithm is proprietary all bids are not created equal.

 

Since @phoenix_dream  was asking for only facts instead of speculation I will give one example direct from Celebrity Website -

 

Looking to take your vacation to the next level? You’re in luck. MoveUp allows you to bid on a stateroom upgrade after you’ve purchased your cruise. As a valued Captain’s Club member your bid gets a bonus boost based on your tier. So, you get more value than what you bid. Classic members get an extra 1% multiplier, Select members get a 2% multiplier, Elite members get a 3% multiplier, Elite Plus members get a 4% multiplier, and Zenith members get a 5% multiplier. 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for pointing this out for folks.  Would it sound too grumpy of me to say that the multipliers are really pretty meager?  For example, it takes a heck of a lot of points to go from Elite Plus to Zenith and that gets you a whole 1% more, whereas it's pretty easy to go from Select to Elite and that also gets you 1% more.  But at the end of the day, at least its something so I'll stop griping now.🙂

[RichYak]

2 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

if it truly is only by who bids the highest...

But it isn't only by who bids the highest.

[The_Big_M]

3 hours ago, RichYak said:

IMO, those multipliers have very little value. There's a much larger portion of your overall bid that you have no control over--what someone else is bidding for your current cabin, and so on down the line.

 

The purpose of those is really only to give higher tiers an advantage over lower tiers.

 

i.e. if an Elite and a Select member both bid $200 to go to a verandah, it prioritises the Elite bid at $206 against the Select member at $204, hence awarding it to Elite first of the two, everything else being equal.

 

It's quite clever in that respect, that it's not designed to magnify people's bids to the extent that cash generated from it is less than otherwise i.e. it doesn't supersize your bid to beat someone who actually bid more cash, in general.

[RichYak]

19 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

i.e. if an Elite and a Select member both bid $200 to go to a verandah, it prioritises the Elite bid at $206 against the Select member at $204, hence awarding it to Elite first of the two, everything else being equal.

I agree with your math. My point is that the "everything else being equal" caveat you mentioned is IMO rarer than people think, so the multiplier being the ultimate tie-breaker wouldn't come into play very often.

[NutsAboutGolf]

Another scenario that can happen that I've seen before.  You bid near the minimum of $500 for this example.  You check a month later and now the minimum is $1,000.  Now there's probably no chance of you winning

[phoenix_dream]

3 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

Another scenario that can happen that I've seen before.  You bid near the minimum of $500 for this example.  You check a month later and now the minimum is $1,000.  Now there's probably no chance of you winning

I didn't realize the minimums changed.  Interesting. 

[NutsAboutGolf]

56 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I didn't realize the minimums changed.  Interesting. 

 

No notifications/notice either

[Lastdance]

This is quite a system, as no one knows if there is an error; the outsourced company is always right!  I have bid twice and this resulted in one MoveUp that was unbelievable because my bid was so low.  I am sure it had to do with wanting my SV cabin on deck 11 of Apex!  My other MoveUp bid was very high, but didn’t even get a nod!  As long as you are content with the cabin/suite you have, it really doesn’t matter and you save all that extra money if not chosen.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Lastdance

[NutsAboutGolf]

5 minutes ago, Lastdance said:

This is quite a system, as no one knows if there is an error; the outsourced company is always right!  I have bid twice and this resulted in one MoveUp that was unbelievable because my bid was so low.  I am sure it had to do with wanting my SV cabin on deck 11 of Apex!  My other MoveUp bid was very high, but didn’t even get a nod!  As long as you are content with the cabin/suite you have, it really doesn’t matter and you save all that extra money if not chosen.

 

Every auction including online like ebay or in person can have fraud

 

With the Apex SV, those are often in demand once people realize the cons of an IV so yes, someone probably bid a very high amount.  FYI, on my May Beyond sailing a SV was more than both CC and AQ