Current load factors

[May B]

21 hours ago, PaulMCO said:

LOL  was talking about postal mail...  They still do that  🙂

I know that feeling! I wish I could think of a good use for it all.

 

I guess I don’t unsubscribe, due to FOMO.

Edited October 18, 2023 by May B

[Txcotn]

On 10/17/2023 at 3:25 AM, Keith1010 said:

I haven't read all of the suggestions but try using a different e-mail.

 

Keith

It worked! I got an email just now! Thank you!

[FLcruiser2011]

We are giving belated thought once again to joining the 2024 World Cruise.  Does anyone have a good fix on how many guests will be on board -- both full cruisers and segment cruises -- when Serenity sails from San Diego?

[SnoBirdCruiser]

On 10/17/2023 at 4:51 PM, Summer Time said:

Interesting that some of you get Crystal offer emails. Me…..nada on my primary email addy, the one Crystal has along with three booked cruises.  I have subscribed so many times to no avail. 

 

Guess what, my throw away emai addy (same domain as the primary) and my work email addy, I get Crystal offer emails!!!!! I guess Crystal is in love with my other email addys.

 

Kate

I am in the same boat....Nada!! Even though I also have 2 Serenity Cruises in Jan-Feb./24.

I'm beginning to feel like 2nd or 3rd class passenger,even after over 500 nights.LOL,

Pat

 

[Texas Tillie]

4 hours ago, SnoBirdCruiser said:

I am in the same boat....Nada!! Even though I also have 2 Serenity Cruises in Jan-Feb./24.

I'm beginning to feel like 2nd or 3rd class passenger,even after over 500 nights.LOL,

Pat

 

 

I have added the email address that old Crystal had for me at least 5 times on the new Crystal website with no luck whatsoever. I added another email address and I don't get any correspondence on it from them but I did notice that is the email address listed on a booking I made this week. So, they are more than happy to take my deposit money but don't send me anything. 😱😵😉 That being said, I figure between this site and Facebook, I'll know anything happening.

 

Patty

 

P.S. I've had 469 nights on assorted Crystal, old and new.

 

[ak1004]

What were the loads on the recent sailings?

[Keith1010]

7 minutes ago, ak1004 said:

What were the loads on the recent sailings?

What I do know is that on the next Serenity sailing it is close to sold out.

 

Only one category of room is not waitlisted.

 

Keith

[Old Sea Dog]

We returned late last night from Symphony having had a great cruise with just 147 passengers 

The ship operated in all departments as if it was full

I had conversations with the Captain, Cruise director, Future Cruise Booking personnel and 

Herbert, Food & Beverage Manager who all explained that the present passenger numbers were all factored into the operation before sailings commenced.

The projections are that numbers will be low for the next few months but they are already showing positive growth for the ship’s return to Europe in early 2024.

The present sailing has 250 guests who I’m sure will have a fabulous cruise to Mumbai.

We are booked for a back to back early in 25 and can’t wait.

 

[Keith1010]

28 minutes ago, Old Sea Dog said:

We returned late last night from Symphony having had a great cruise with just 147 passengers 

The ship operated in all departments as if it was full

I had conversations with the Captain, Cruise director, Future Cruise Booking personnel and 

Herbert, Food & Beverage Manager who all explained that the present passenger numbers were all factored into the operation before sailings commenced.

The projections are that numbers will be low for the next few months but they are already showing positive growth for the ship’s return to Europe in early 2024.

The present sailing has 250 guests who I’m sure will have a fabulous cruise to Mumbai.

We are booked for a back to back early in 25 and can’t wait.

 

Welcome home.

 

I am glad to hear how much you enjoyed the cruise.  

 

You are so right.  All of this was built into the business plan.  They knew that many people had other cruises booked by the time they put out the itineraries for not only 2023 but for 2024.  

 

Keith

 

 

[BWIVince]

There are a variety of reasons for this typical curve, but as Keith noted, not everyone can back out of their existing commitments even if the penalty on the cruise itself is minimal or free...  (Other arrangements might be nonrefundable, existing trips may have other commitments, may have trouble using miles on shorter notice, etc.) ...But even more people just aren't interested in backing out of existing arrangements -- that's the bucket I fall into.  I love Crystal, but I can't imagine a scenario where I would cancel an existing planned trip just to book a Crystal cruise on months notice.  I just booked my next cruise with Crystal when I planned my next vacation, after my other travel plans.  ...Of course others feel and book differently, but the curve shows tells the story.

 

Vince

[BWIVince]

3 hours ago, Old Sea Dog said:

I had conversations with the Captain, Cruise director, Future Cruise Booking personnel and 

Herbert, Food & Beverage Manager who all explained that the present passenger numbers were all factored into the operation before sailings commenced.

The projections are that numbers will be low for the next few months but they are already showing positive growth for the ship’s return to Europe in early 2024.

 

I love it when I get flack for giving industry insights (not from you), only for my insights to turn out to be correct and relevant to the situation.  😄 

 

Vince

Edited October 27, 2023 by BWIVince

[shrkdive1]

Why isn't Crystal discounting near term cruises to fill the ship?  If they already have staff on board it would seem the incremental cost is negligible for food and getting some added revenue is better than no revenue from these empty cabins.  Other cruise lines do this.

[ctjon]

22 minutes ago, shrkdive1 said:

Why isn't Crystal discounting near term cruises to fill the ship?  If they already have staff on board it would seem the incremental cost is negligible for food and getting some added revenue is better than no revenue from these empty cabins.  Other cruise lines do this.

They wouldn't want to encourage people to book a the last moment and get all the bad press for penalizing early bookers.  

[BWIVince]

38 minutes ago, shrkdive1 said:

Why isn't Crystal discounting near term cruises to fill the ship?  If they already have staff on board it would seem the incremental cost is negligible for food and getting some added revenue is better than no revenue from these empty cabins.  Other cruise lines do this.

 

Pricing integrity and variable costs.

 

Crystal is doing it on certain sailings too, but you can only do this to a certain degree and only in certain cases, before it quickly becomes counterproductive unless you're trying to recalibrate where the fares should be longer-term.

 

Heavy discounting on sailings already open for booking cannibalizes existing revenue, and cruise lines adjust capacity and staffing around seasonal demand -- so Crystal has only been staffing their ships to a certain level based on average demand.  You can't adjust crew week-to-week, but if you only have 100 or so cabins occupied for several months, you don't staff a full compliment of stewardesses (for example) during that time.

 

So there is a balancing act in there...  Getting a body in a berth isn't a guarantee you'll make more money, it's entirely possible to add paying customers and lose more money than you would if the berths sailed empty (in this segment), because of the factors above.

 

Vince

Edited October 27, 2023 by BWIVince

[FlyerTalker]

1 hour ago, BWIVince said:

Pricing integrity and variable costs.

 

Especially the former.

 

Once you develop a reputation as a "last minute discounter", then you have effectively destroyed the price integrity for ALL of your sailings.  Folks defer bookings, which then throws off the operational projections.  And your overall revenues take a hit, even if you have more bodies.

 

An interesting case is Viking.  They maintain a very strict price discipline for their sailings.  However, they have been quite adept at using "free air" as a way to discount a cruise to incentivize bookings with actually discounting "the cruise itself".  But for some reason, folks don't see this as a discount, but some kind of additional freebie. 

 

 

[Keith1010]

1 hour ago, shrkdive1 said:

Why isn't Crystal discounting near term cruises to fill the ship?  If they already have staff on board it would seem the incremental cost is negligible for food and getting some added revenue is better than no revenue from these empty cabins.  Other cruise lines do this.

Pricing integrity.

 

How would you feel it you booked early and learn that someone else came on for a far less price.

 

Customer loyalty is important.  

 

Keith

[Stickman1990]

2 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Pricing integrity.

 

How would you feel it you booked early and learn that someone else came on for a far less price.

I’d feel like I feel every time I fly - knowing that the airlines are constantly repricing seats based on demand and time before the flight - the price of seats are very rarely the same uniformly across an aircraft 

 

As well as a basic reprice option cruise lines have the ability to bundle things to effectively reprice without having to refund dollars to those who booked earlier at the higher price (yes Crystal has been very good in the past at lowering prices for already booked guests when prices are reduced at the category level but will that continue?)  - most cruise lines including new Crystal offer incentives, from time to time, like “free or subsidised air” “included OBC” etc etc and they typically don’t extend those things to current bookings - they do that in an effort to sell surplus capacity 

[BWIVince]

8 minutes ago, Stickman1990 said:

I’d feel like I feel every time I fly - knowing that the airlines are constantly repricing seats based on demand and time before the flight - the price of seats are very rarely the same uniformly across an aircraft 

 

As well as a basic reprice option cruise lines have the ability to bundle things to effectively reprice without having to refund dollars to those who booked earlier at the higher price (yes Crystal has been very good in the past at lowering prices for already booked guests when prices are reduced at the category level but will that continue?)  - most cruise lines including new Crystal offer incentives, from time to time, like “free or subsidised air” “included OBC” etc etc and they typically don’t extend those things to current bookings - they do that in an effort to sell surplus capacity 

 

I agree overall, but this goes back to my earlier comment about these strategies being effective in certain situations, but can equally be disastrous in others...  And why the same execs who have done these things previously aren't doing the same thing here.

 

Adding inclusions is perfect when you have "shoulder" inventory to sell, but potentially could be a disaster when you try to apply it as a primary strategy for a couple of months of low occupancy (depending on the inclusions you need to move the needle).  If you have certain dates where sales are soft in between well booked sailings, then you already have the crew and the variable costs for those cabins to be occupied, and it makes more sense to toss in an incentive.  Also, while the incentives need to be impactful, to just sell shoulder dates the incentives don't typically need to be doorbusters.

 

In a case like the September and October sailings though, if they had piled on something like free air or a large "as you wish" credit, they're increasing their variable costs by having to bring in full-price crew for lower margin guests, plus they're adding costs that either have a direct or partial cash outlay for the cruise line (depending on the inclusion -- air more so, onboard credit a little less so/guest-dependent).  Moreover, you need more than the inclusions you'd need for shoulder inventory, to move the needle on a whole season you need doorbusters, which have a higher cost.

 

This is why we have a whole toolbox of tools to drive sales, and why sometimes suppliers just leave well enough alone instead of trying to incentivize sales at a lower margin.

 

Vince

 

 

[Keith1010]

50 minutes ago, Stickman1990 said:

I’d feel like I feel every time I fly - knowing that the airlines are constantly repricing seats based on demand and time before the flight - the price of seats are very rarely the same uniformly across an aircraft 

 

As well as a basic reprice option cruise lines have the ability to bundle things to effectively reprice without having to refund dollars to those who booked earlier at the higher price (yes Crystal has been very good in the past at lowering prices for already booked guests when prices are reduced at the category level but will that continue?)  - most cruise lines including new Crystal offer incentives, from time to time, like “free or subsidised air” “included OBC” etc etc and they typically don’t extend those things to current bookings - they do that in an effort to sell surplus capacity 

The major difference is we are on a flight for x number of hours not days or even weeks.  We don't have time on that flight to converse with everyone about what we paid. We do on a cruise.  

 

People talk on cruise lines and that is a problem is fare are significantly reduced.  

 

And yes agree that even old Crystal offered some incentives but not something that would take a cruise of 200 guests to a full ship.

 

Crystal built all of this into their business plan and that was fully understanding that booking in 2023 and into 2024 would be low. So my vote is they continue with this strategy to ensure pricing integrity.

 

As I have said from the beginning these are very smart people who have thought this through.

 

And we are seeing that is working as more and more people I know have been adding more and more cruises.

 

As for time will tell which is a phrase I have used on this board for several years and always enjoy when others day the same, the next Crystal Serenity cruise is pretty much full. The Serenity Holiday Cruise is in the same boat.  

I am seeing other cruises we are booked on with increasing numbers as I see several categories wait listed. And the same is true for a number of other cruises.

 

In the end Crystal will figure out what makes sense.  If they need to adjust pricing they will but glad to see they have not panicked. There is no need to.

 

 

 

 

 

[BWIVince]

47 minutes ago, ak1004 said:

Time will tell if they ever be able to fill ships at the current prices (and Crystal 2025 prices are even more ridiculous), but those are the current facts. You would think that with only 2 ships and reduced capacity, and so many hardcore fans, Crystal would have no issues filling ships - but apparently this is not the case.

 

Dollars to donuts, you're looking at this completely differently than anyone on Crystal's sales team.

 

I'm willing to bet no one at Crystal is/was even paying serious attention to September or October 2023 load factors.  I'm sure they see them, but probably just say "yep" and keep scrolling.

 

I'm also willing to bet every single morning, every set of eyes on Crystal's sales team are looking closely at every single sailing of both ships next summer.

 

Vince

Edited October 27, 2023 by BWIVince