RCL Stock

[Baron Barracuda]

30 minutes ago, npcl said:

To put the bond market in perspective RCL  11/22 bonds are at YTM 16.791, CCL 10/15/20 now at 13.122 YTM

 

Starting to look like the bond market is expecting default.

All bbb and under spreads have blown out in the last week.

 

So long as sailing resumes in fall believe possibility of bankruptcy is a very remote.  Lenders recognize the current problem is temporary and not fault of cruise lines.  Business model is sound.  Patience provides much better opportunity to get repaid.  Washington might not provide direct financial support but still doesn't want businesses to fail.  Debt can be extended or restructured.  With a current market cap of only $6B RCL could be an inexpensive acquisition target for an entertainment company (Disney? Comcast?) or private equity

[Blizzard54]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

And yet a few minutes ago at his daily press briefing Trump spoke of how the cruise industry was just recently setting records, is a great industry and we have to help them.  "They will be taking care of people for years to come and paying tremendous taxes, tremendous taxes".  Either he's unaware of the cruise lines current tax situation or maybe paying US taxes will be the quid pro quo for obtaining aid.

 

By the way Merrill Lynch cut RCL to underperform (sell) this morning and reduced price target to $25.  No one on Wall St seems to fear bankruptcy though.

 

The only thing I can think of is that maybe some one explained to him how many jobs in the US are supported by the cruise industry and that generates tax revenue.  Some of those are the Airlines, hotels. restaurants,  cruise terminal workers. provision supplies.   Sometimes he seems to not understand the underlining details of what is going on.

[Jimbo]

I guess since no one is cruising anymore, I kind of started a Stock Critic Forum. I kind of like the change of pace from the repeated questions about cruising, that get asked over and over again.

 

This thread was kind of in quicksand until I brought up a question last night..............It's interesting I'm learning alot of new things, Keep it up......thanks.

[Blizzard54]

I am not sure it this is the current situation but as I recall from years back the funding for building the ships was arranged by and backed by the governments where the shipyards are located.  It created jobs for them.  

With interest rates down to nothing there could attempt some refinancing,    

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

And I don't feel as though they should be seeing as they don't pay any US taxes. Royal is based in Liberia....does Liberia have enough to bail them out??

Good point. In fact has any other country offered to help bail them ? Probably not.

[fred30]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

I am not sure it this is the current situation but as I recall from years back the funding for building the ships was arranged by and backed by the governments where the shipyards are located.  It created jobs for them.  

With interest rates down to nothing there could attempt some refinancing,    

They were all American shipyards.  Now I think they mostly only build Military vessels.

[Blizzard54]

16 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I guess since no one is cruising anymore, I kind of started a Stock Critic Forum. I kind of like the change of pace from the repeated questions about cruising, that get asked over and over again.

 

This thread was kind of in quicksand until I brought up a question last night..............It's interesting I'm learning alot of new things, Keep it up......thanks.

I am looking for different forms of entertainment.  Basically been in lockdown for 4 weeks already.  I have at least 5 more weeks to go.  I do occasionally get to wave at someone walking their dog. 

 

[Blizzard54]

7 minutes ago, fred30 said:

They were all American shipyards.  Now I think they mostly only build Military vessels.

No, I am talking about the Finish and German shipyards that build the cruise ships.

[npcl]

42 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

All bbb and under spreads have blown out in the last week.

 

So long as sailing resumes in fall believe possibility of bankruptcy is a very remote.  Lenders recognize the current problem is temporary and not fault of cruise lines.  Business model is sound.  Patience provides much better opportunity to get repaid.  Washington might not provide direct financial support but still doesn't want businesses to fail.  Debt can be extended or restructured.  With a current market cap of only $6B RCL could be an inexpensive acquisition target for an entertainment company (Disney? Comcast?) or private equity

Keep in mind that CCL was not BBB last week.  Also did a check of all BBB bonds, and CCL and RCL were in the top 4 in YTM.  So while BBB rates have gone up in general, the only company higher than RCL is an oil producing company and we know how close many of those are to BK at the current oil prices.

[sfaaa]

2 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

And I don't feel as though they should be seeing as they don't pay any US taxes. Royal is based in Liberia....does Liberia have enough to bail them out??

Liberia has a lot of diamonds that can be turned into pricey bling.

Edited March 17, 2020 by sfaaa

[DaKahuna]

Anyone else buy at under $27.50 today? Did not pay the lowest price but was up a few cents at the close.  

 

I’ll now wait and see what happens next.  Dollar cost averaging has always been good to me.

 

 

[dwp10mm]

3 hours ago, DaKahuna said:

Anyone else buy at under $27.50 today? Did not pay the lowest price but was up a few cents at the close.  

 

I’ll now wait and see what happens next.  Dollar cost averaging has always been good to me.

 

 

 

I’m a hardcore Royal fan. My buy order for 100 shares kicked in at $28 today. I have another order for 100 shares at $22. I’m conflicted if I want that one to go through. But I am in this for the long haul. 

[SherriZ366]

2 hours ago, Wally Alligator said:

 

 

As to RCL stock - this thread - it is gonna be a rocket when things clear up.  Question is when will things clear up and ships resume sailing at 100% occupancy.

From your mouth to God's ear.  My husband is mad that I  didn't sell but I've rode the dips down and the prices skyrocketing.  

[internetwhiz]

I thought this topic was RC stock. Am I wrong?  

[DaKahuna]

PLEASE - There are more than enough topics more appropriate for your discussion on COVID-19 -- if you can't talk about RCL stock and its prices, please refrain from responding to off topic discussions. 

 

Looking at today's futures - the broad market is poised to open approximately 800 points down, which will erase yesterday's gains.   RCL is currently positioned to open at $26.00 a share -- down from yesterday's close. 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by DaKahuna

[Colorado Babe]

10 minutes ago, DaKahuna said:

PLEASE - There are more than enough topics more appropriate for your discussion on COVID-19 -- if you can't talk about RCL stock and its prices, please refrain from responding to off topic discussions. 

 

Looking at today's futures - the broad market is poised to open approximately 800 points down, which will erase yesterday's gains.   RCL is currently positioned to open at $26.00 a share -- down from yesterday's close. 

 

 

So, I guess the big question is when do I want to jump and buy it?  

[ed01106]

1 minute ago, Colorado Babe said:

So, I guess the big question is when do I want to jump and buy it?  

Things that will happen before I buy.

 

1. Both WHO and CDC declares the pandemic to have ended.

 

2. Cruise lines resume operations.  

 

[dssking]

I understand that the RCL stock price is directly related to the so-called virus and media driven pandemic, but let's focus on the STOCK.  

Saying you know someone who knows someone's sister's brother's uncle's lawyer, who knows their mother's sister's aunt who has the "virus" is under quarantine is completely irrevellant.  

[Biker19]

RCL stock down another 10% in pre trade hours.

[Builder31]

Anyone buying the stock right now is nuts. There is SO much more bad news to come. Namely the extension of the suspensions. CDC says social distancing should last at least 8 weeks and many say it will last longer. The fact that you can still book a cruise for April 12 out of FL is a joke. June is the best case scenario IMO.

And there is no way they will be able to bail out the cruise lines. There is not enough $ to go around. Every industry in the US is going to need help and they are now saying 20% unemployment. That is low IMO.


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[Bradison]

27 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Things that will happen before I buy.

 

1. Both WHO and CDC declares the pandemic to have ended.

 

2. Cruise lines resume operations.  

 

 

If you could only know this info the day BEFORE it happens.  Not suggesting insider trader or anything...wink...wink🤨

[Jimbo]

So tell me if I have this right..........I put in to buy 100 shares, then put in the price that I want to buy it at, then select limit, day.

 

That's mean if the actual price of the stock would get there, it buys it automatically right, I wouldn't have to keep watching to pick it up right? is this correct?

 

I also assume that price I selected , the offer only lasts to the end of the day and then it is canceled if the price doesn't get to there. Is this correct?

[rimmit]

2 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

So tell me if I have this right..........I put in to buy 100 shares, then put in the price that I want to buy it at, then select limit, day.

 

That's mean if the actual price of the stock would get there, it buys it automatically right, I wouldn't have to keep watching to pick it up right? is this correct?

 

I also assume that price I selected , the offer only lasts to the end of the day and then it is canceled if the price doesn't get to there. Is this correct?

That is correct.  

[Bradison]

9 minutes ago, irzero said:

No matter what price you pay now 35 or 25 usd per share or even 15 usd.

It's either going to survive this or it wont. If it doesn't then you are SOL anyway. If it does you are going to see a profit of 4 or 5 times investment eventually.

I got my 100 shares for the free credit long term. If I'm lucky I'll see enough value appreciation that I'll 4x my investment plus get paid a dividend which makes it a no brainer...

If it survives

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

 

For me it is all about survival.  Your reasoning is all very sound and why I am about to pull the trigger.  I am waiting to see what the next 2 weeks bring and how RCI seems to be handling things.  If I can get the investor bennies and cash the shares in a couple of decades later I am confident this is a sound plan.  That all hinges on if they survive.

 

Thinking about looking into Disney as well.  Anyone ahead of me on that?

[ed01106]

1 minute ago, Bradison said:

 

If you could only know this info the day BEFORE it happens.  Not suggesting insider trader or anything...wink...wink🤨

I know I won’t be buying at the absolute bottom. I figure to pay. 10 to 20 % more than the low point.   

 

I am okay with that. I would rather buy on the way up than the way down. And it going to zero is possible.