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heidikay

By heidikay,
in Royal Caribbean International

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ed01106

ed01106

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

Betting by the time that happens Stocks will have already climbed up.

Yup. Figuring  anywhere from 5% to 15% above the low watermark.  But they aren’t going to climb to double in value anytime quickly.  I can’t time the market.  But I can stay out until the very real risk of the stocks going to zero subsides.  When the US numbers pass Italy the stocks will be lower than they are today.  

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Farts

Farts

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Yup. Figuring  anywhere from 5% to 15% above the low watermark.  But they aren’t going to climb to double in value anytime quickly.  I can’t time the market.  But I can stay out until the very real risk of the stocks going to zero subsides.  When the US numbers pass Italy the stocks will be lower than they are today.  

I 100% agree with you. Only then would i invest.

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RoyalC

RoyalC

Posted
Posted

Hard to imagine this doesn't go lower unless they cancel the precedent set for this virus. Nothing has been this bad

for cruise stocks, not 9-11, not the financial crisis, nothing. Hard to call bottoms, therefore the bounces you see. 

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Ocean Boy

Ocean Boy

Posted
Posted

As soon as they announce the moratorium on cruising has been moved out beyond the original 30 days there will be another dip in price. Of course, before someone feels the need to point it out.... that is just my opinion.

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Blizzard54

Blizzard54

Posted
Posted

I do not expect to see a bottom before the ships are sailing again.  And then there will be the issue of getting people to the ships and how full will they be.  Royal has cut off a lot of their market with the letters needed to board. 

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ALWAYS CRUZIN

ALWAYS CRUZIN

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

I do not expect to see a bottom before the ships are sailing again.  And then there will be the issue of getting people to the ships and how full will they be.  Royal has cut off a lot of their market with the letters needed to board. 

I cannot blame them for doing that. My wife and I will need the letter and we both will feel a little safer.

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Houndfish

Houndfish

Posted
Posted
On 2/26/2020 at 3:46 PM, rimmit said:

Unless you really need to get the OBC from the stock now This has a long way to bottom out.  Last time we had a recession in 2009 it hit 5.00 which was crazy cheap.

 

unlikely to hit that now,  but the point is a reference for just how low it can go.   I believe the previous high when it went to 5.00 was around $30 or so at the time,  so it dropped down to 1/6 value.  RCI has half the ships then, but the point is that it’s a mass sell off in a recession.

 

If RCI has a ship with corona or the Caribbean gets corona it’s hard to say just how low it can go.

 

Its definitely not a bad buy now,  just be prepared for it to fall even more if you buy in now.

Bank America went to1 around 2008. Kicking myself that I didn't buy it. Too scared then

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npcl

npcl

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

RCL obtained a new $2.2B secured loan this morning and drew down the entire amount.  Also stated they have guaranteed funding for all ships on order.  This should buy them a lot of time. 

Buy them some time, not sure about a lot of time

 

The loan terms are rather interesting.  It reads to me as if they pledged Celebrity as Collateral for the loan.

From the 8-K filing.  Somewhat surprising in that they are not getting the loan on the ships but also on the 100% of their equity interests in Celebrity.  Seems are lot for a 2.2 billion 364 day loan. It is a little unclear if they might be pledging another ship owning line (of which there are Azamara and Silversea as well as the TUI joint venture), but if so you would expect them to list the line.

 

 

 

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000110465920037377/tm2012810-1_8k.htm

 

 

On March 23, 2020 (the “Funding Date”), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company,” “we,” “our” and “us”) borrowed $2.2 billion pursuant to a 364-day senior secured term loan agreement (the “Loan Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc., as the administrative agent and collateral agent and the other lenders party thereto. The loans under the Loan Agreement (the “Loans”) will mature on the date that is 364 days after the Funding Date and such maturity date may be extended at our option an additional 364 days subject to customary conditions, including the payment of a 1.00% extension fee.

 

The Company’s obligations under the Loan Agreement are guaranteed by our wholly-owned subsidiaries, Celebrity Cruises Holdings Inc., Celebrity Cruises Inc. and certain of our wholly-owned vessel-owning subsidiaries, and will be secured by our trademarks and a pledge of 100% of the equity interests of certain of our wholly-owned vessel-owning subsidiaries. We will also use commercially reasonable efforts to deliver a mortgage in favor of the collateral agent over each of the vessels owned by such vessel-owning subsidiaries.

 

The proceeds of the Loan Agreement will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Interest accrues at LIBOR plus a margin of 2.25% which increases to 2.50% and 2.75%, 180 days and 365 days, respectively, after the Funding Date. In addition, we will be required to pay a duration fee in an amount equal to 0.25% of the aggregate principal amount of the Loans outstanding every 60 days.

 

 

Edited by npcl
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Baron Barracuda

Baron Barracuda

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, npcl said:

Buy them some time, not sure about a lot of time

 

The loan terms are rather interesting.  It reads to me as if they pledged Celebrity as Collateral for the loan.

From the 8-K filing.  Somewhat surprising in that they are not getting the loan on the ships but also on the 100% of their equity interests in Celebrity.  Seems are lot for a 2.2 billion 364 day loan. It is a little unclear if they might be pledging another ship owning line (of which there are Azamara and Silversea as well as the TUI joint venture), but if so you would expect them to list the line.

 

 

Since RCCI doesn't publish subsidiary financial information impossible to estimate value of their investment in X and therefore how much collateral they are putting up against the loan.   You can look up what they paid for each ship and estimate accumulated depreciation but only Fain knows how much debt X carries on their subsidiary books and how much of their earnings are retained at the subsidiary level vs dividend-ed up to RCCI.  Also noted that Celebrity Edge is actually owned by Celebrity Edge inc and only operated by Celebrity cruises.  Didn't check for other similar situations but they are likely what RCCI refers to as "wholly-owned vessel -owning subsidiaries"  

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The_Big_M

The_Big_M

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

I do not expect to see a bottom before the ships are sailing again.  And then there will be the issue of getting people to the ships and how full will they be.  Royal has cut off a lot of their market with the letters needed to board. 

 

I wouldn't expect those letters to still be required after sailing UNLESS they start sailing with coronavirus issues still around. If things were to go back the way they were before, I expect letters would also.

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SherriZ366

SherriZ366

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

 

I wouldn't expect those letters to still be required after sailing UNLESS they start sailing with coronavirus issues still around. If things were to go back the way they were before, I expect letters would also.

I'm hoping that once coronavirus is no longer an issue that a letter won't be required or will be modified in a way that does not eliminate at least 25% - 40% of their customer base (don't have a handle on how many customers are over 70 but anecdotally it must be a lot.  

 

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Jimbo

Jimbo

Posted
Posted
On 3/21/2020 at 7:50 AM, Biker19 said:

Kinda hard to know what is happening on the other side of final payment (90 days for many) when they don't know what will happen next month.

 

And for those that bought at the low (just below $20), RCL stock is up to $24, so you are already up 20+%.

Up to $33 now, what's up with that? I should have bought when it was down at $20..........Could have made a quick $1300 on a 100 shares

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Biker19

Biker19

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Up to $33 now, what's up with that? I should have bought when it was down at $20..........Could have made a quick $1300 on a 100 shares

That's the issue of waiting till things "stabilize" or "improve", you've missed a big swing already.

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