Cruising may never be the same again.

[djjoe]

We came home a month ago from the Grandeur, having caught the last sailing before the shutdown. The month at home has given me time to speculate on the future of cruising. If and when Royal resumes , I expect to see many cost cutting measures. The free flowing daily booze  in the lounge might be gone, especially for lower tier C&A members. The balcony discounts may disappear, the shareholder benefit may be gone too. On our last cruise the Windjammer was closed at dinner time because they didn’t have crew to serve food. Maybe one less food venue could save money. I hope I’m wrong, but in our almost 100 cruises, I’ve seen many cutbacks over the years. The current crisis with zero revenue will most likely result in cost cutting measures to keep the company afloat and turn a profit again.

Edited April 20, 2020 by djjoe

[Jonbiloh]

They are going to have a lot of berths to sell. Royal has margin (they have the strongest margin levels of the 3 majors) to give up in exchange for higher revenue. Expect free perks to go up not down. 

[grneyes]

I believe the WJ  was closed because the GR

had several cases of the Noro Virus .

Had nothing to do with not having crew.

 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

I believe you are exactly right, though "never" may prove too pessimistic. 
 

Short-term, though, it's hard to imagine cruise lines NOT cutting back. The pressure to build high-pressure upsells, add-ons and service fees will be extraordinary.

 

And this time, it won't be exclusively the fault of executives' greed. They're desperately going to need a tsunami of new revenue when they sail again - not to fatten their profits, but just to survive.

  (The borrowing costs they've incurred in the past several weeks alone is staggering, and that's just part of their financial nightmare).
 

    The truth is, all three major cruise corporations must re-engineer their business models quickly - and they're all stuck with oversized mega-behemoth new ships that are suddenly white elephants. Plus way, way too many ships.
 

    Packing 5,000 passengers aboard Elephant of the Seas at low fares can't work in this environment. That part of the mass market model is dead for now. Given the horrible state of the global economy, it's dead for years to come.

 

    The cruise lines will have fewer customers & generally with less disposable income. There's no way that equates to bargains, bonuses or free/low-cost amenities for passengers. 

[grneyes]

14 minutes ago, Jonbiloh said:

They are going to have a lot of berths to sell. Royal has margin (they have the strongest margin levels of the 3 majors) to give up in exchange for higher revenue. Expect free perks to go up not down. 

I agree many perks to get people to cruise.

[fdthird]

How much MORE will cruising cost as new requirements go in to effect?  Less passengers, more crew support, new ways of doing the same thing???

[voyager70]

Nobody knows when cruising will resume or what changes will be made.  Speculative posts like this do no good.

 

[djjoe]

14 minutes ago, grneyes said:

I believe the WJ  was closed because the GR

had several cases of the Noro Virus .

Had nothing to do with not having crew.

 

Yes we had a Norovirus outbreak which resulted in crew serving everything at breakfast and lunch. Passengers were not allowed to touch anything. The band, photographers, dancers, crew from all over the ship helped out. They couldn’t pull those crew members from their regular jobs at dinner time.

[ReneeFLL]

I don't think the WJ will be gone at dinner. There will be to much of an uproar. If they get rid of it for dinner then I will definitely find another cruise line since we usually eat there for dinner. Again, this is just speculation and none of us really know what will happen.

[CruiseAwesome]

5 minutes ago, ReneeFLL said:

I don't think the WJ will be gone at dinner. There will be to much of an uproar. If they get rid of it for dinner then I will definitely find another cruise line since we usually eat there for dinner. Again, this is just speculation and none of us really know what will happen.

 

Doesn't sound like you're all too loyal if hypotheticals make you start abandoning ship.

[mugtech]

18 minutes ago, voyager70 said:

Nobody knows when cruising will resume or what changes will be made.  Speculative posts like this do no good.

 

But they are entertaining.

[lazydayz]

19 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

I believe you are exactly right, though "never" may prove too pessimistic. 
 

Short-term, though, it's hard to imagine cruise lines NOT cutting back. ...

 

    The cruise lines will have fewer customers & generally with less disposable income. There's no way that equates to bargains, bonuses or free/low-cost amenities for passengers. 

 

Royal has to provide a good product and they know it is repeat cruisers who will be their customers once they start to sail again. So I don't think they can get away with making the shipboard experience anything less than it was. I expect a different but better product. 

[mugtech]

2 minutes ago, CruiseAwesome said:

 

Doesn't sound like you're all too loyal if hypotheticals make you start abandoning ship.

Loyalty is overstated.  People gonna sail where they get what they want at a price they are willing to pay.

[CruiseAwesome]

1 minute ago, mugtech said:

Loyalty is overstated.  People gonna sail where they get what they want at a price they are willing to pay.

 

Oh absolutely, why spend thousands just for a different line to get on the ship. My point is why does anyone react to hypotheticals? Do we REALLY think that cruise ships are going to get rid of buffets? Absolutely not.

[John&LaLa]

10 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

I believe you are exactly right, though "never" may prove too pessimistic. 
 

Short-term, though, it's hard to imagine cruise lines NOT cutting back. The pressure to build high-pressure upsells, add-ons and service fees will be extraordinary.

 

And this time, it won't be exclusively the fault of executives' greed. They're desperately going to need a tsunami of new revenue when they sail again - not to fatten their profits, but just to survive.

  (The borrowing costs they've incurred in the past several weeks alone is staggering, and that's just part of their financial nightmare).
 

    The truth is, all three major cruise corporations must re-engineer their business models quickly - and they're all stuck with oversized mega-behemoth new ships that are suddenly white elephants. Plus way, way too many ships.
 

    Packing 5,000 passengers aboard Elephant of the Seas at low fares can't work in this environment. That part of the mass market model is dead for now. Given the horrible state of the global economy, it's dead for years to come.

 

    The cruise lines will have fewer customers & generally with less disposable income. There's no way that equates to bargains, bonuses or free/low-cost amenities for passengers. 

 

I respectfully disagree. I propose that port stops will be the challenge and Roysl needs her big girls with all their bells and whistles to entice customers. Plus those ships have the profit centers needed to make additional revenue.

[Paulette3028]

10 hours ago, voyager70 said:

Nobody knows when cruising will resume or what changes will be made.  Speculative posts like this do no good.

 

Sorry to disagree.  Although cruisers have no real input into what the cruise lines ultimately do....talking cruising is what 'real cruisers' love to do....and it keeps our greatest enjoyment 'top of mind'.  It causes no harm and does give us something to look forward to and I do look forward to 'getting on a cruise ship'.

 

[mek]

As much as I love cruising, right now I'm at the point that I really don't care what they do in the future.  If they still offer a product that I'm interested in then fine and if not I won't lose any sleep over it and will spend my vacation $'s somewhere else. It might cost me more to do something else and I might travel less, but  life doesn't always have to stay the same. Right now the only thing I care about is what's going to happen to the Oasis cruise I already have booked for November, 2020.

 

I won't even consider booking  anything new until ships start sailing again and I don't think that will be this year.

 

 

[Milwaukee Eight]

10 hours ago, djjoe said:

We came home a month ago from the Grandeur, having caught the last sailing before the shutdown. The month at home has given me time to speculate on the future of cruising. If and when Royal resumes , I expect to see many cost cutting measures. The free flowing daily booze  in the lounge might be gone, especially for lower tier C&A members. The balcony discounts may disappear, the shareholder benefit may be gone too. On our last cruise the Windjammer was closed at dinner time because they didn’t have crew to serve food. Maybe one less food venue could save money. I hope I’m wrong, but in our almost 100 cruises, I’ve seen many cutbacks over the years. The current crisis with zero revenue will most likely result in cost cutting measures to keep the company afloat and turn a profit again.

Diamond Lounge converted to on ship ICU. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

18 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I respectfully disagree. I propose that port stops will be the challenge and Roysl needs her big girls with all their bells and whistles to entice customers. Plus those ships have the profit centers needed to make additional revenue.

Agreed but to me, the ships will sail less than full capacity. What the number becomes, remains to be seen. We would gladly pay more for a ship 1/2 capacity or less. More exclusive. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

30 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I respectfully disagree. I propose that port stops will be the challenge and Roysl needs her big girls with all their bells and whistles to entice customers. Plus those ships have the profit centers needed to make additional revenue.

    You raise a couple of good points here.

    I could see a small number of the mammoths continuing on. For one market segment, a "cruise to nowhere" with tons of activities would be preferable - and yes, that invites charges for ice skating, bumper cars & all of that. (Plus a chance at segmenting into regular-premium-deluxe "experiences" at still higher charges)

 

  With the overall market deeply diminished, though, there's no way to keep many of them running. If we estimate the new "full" is half capacity, 1,100 is enough for Serenity ... 1,700 for Navigator. But Allure would need 2,700.

 

 And who will be sailing in the first year or two? My bet is long-time cruise addicts.

And as we know, many of them prefer 

 the main attraction of smaller ships: "traditional" cruising (more promenade decks, fewer Six Flags bells & whistle).

Edited April 20, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[coaster]

The 50 percent reduction in passengers sounds good, but I can't see it happening. Prices would have to at least double and that will not bring revenue back to normal.  Less folks in the casino and less buying overpriced drink packages will eliminate any benefit by doubling fares. Some if it can be offset with reduced staffing and food cost, but I don't see it being profitable.

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by coaster

[Homosassa]

22 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

   

 

 And who will be sailing in the first year or two? My bet is long-time cruise addicts.

And as we know, many of them prefer 

 the main attraction of smaller ships: "traditional" cruising (more promenade decks, fewer Six Flags bells & whistle).

 

I also think that cruising will return to its roots of a relaxing vacation  for those cruisers who could afford the price of an upscale product.

 

This was once Royal Caribbean's marketing demographic  before being repositioned  to an entry level cruise line targeted to those who think cruising  should be at an amusement park.

 

I don't know what Royal Caribbean or other lines will do with their floating sardine cans.

[Paulette3028]

1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I respectfully disagree. I propose that port stops will be the challenge and Roysl needs her big girls with all their bells and whistles to entice customers. Plus those ships have the profit centers needed to make additional revenue.

I totally agree that one of the biggest challenges will be port stop availability and healthy safety.  Before you may have worried about 'crime' in a port of call, but sanitary conditions in port on excursions will be a big concern is my expectation.  I asked my DH if we would do a 'cruise to nowhere' and the answer from both of us would be YES, as long as the ship had plenty for me to do....and that just means, waterslides.  So you therefore know what size I would enjoy and not care if we had a port stop at all.  

 

It will be people who love to cruise who will be the first to rebook and that is what the cruise lines (all of them) know.

[Iamcruzin]

11 hours ago, ReneeFLL said:

I don't think the WJ will be gone at dinner. There will be to much of an uproar. If they get rid of it for dinner then I will definitely find another cruise line since we usually eat there for dinner. Again, this is just speculation and none of us really know what will happen.

Logistically it can't happen. The MDRs couldn't handle the passenger load.  They will probably have to modify it in the beginning but it won't go away.

[bouhunter]

12 hours ago, voyager70 said:

Nobody knows when cruising will resume or what changes will be made.  Speculative posts like this do no good.

 

I agree.  What's the point of starting a post just to speculate how cruising will be worse.  It probably will be, but who takes pleasure in nitpicking the ways that it could?