NCLH Restructuring, Cost Cutting

[Classiccruiser777]

“Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. issued a business update on April 27 detailing its efforts to successfully ride out the global COVID-19 pandemic, including refinancing debt and reducing operating and capital expenses. The company said it expects to report a net loss for the first quarter and for the year.”

More here: https://www.travelpulse.com/news/cruise/nclh-takes-measures-to-mitigate-business-impacts-from-covid-19.html?fbclid=IwAR0sofgGk6TlTgxhWyHy2TnwVVS1268YfRZvAmHfuNo0HJJCEPZO4-RVqTg#.XqhOakjkFgI.facebook

 

 

[Shawnino]

Well, if you owe your bank ten grand, and you spend $100 more a month than you make, you've got a problem.

 

If you owe your bank $10 billion, and oyu're burning $110-$150 million a month, your bank has the problem.

[pingpong1]

1 hour ago, Shawnino said:

Well, if you owe your bank ten grand, and you spend $100 more a month than you make, you've got a problem.

 

If you owe your bank $10 billion, and oyu're burning $110-$150 million a month, your bank has the problem.

😲😲😜  👍 +10

[tocruiseguy]

6 hours ago, Classiccruiser777 said:

“Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. issued a business update on April 27 detailing its efforts to successfully ride out the global COVID-19 pandemic, including refinancing debt and reducing operating and capital expenses. The company said it expects to report a net loss for the first quarter and for the year.”

More here: https://www.travelpulse.com/news/cruise/nclh-takes-measures-to-mitigate-business-impacts-from-covid-19.html?fbclid=IwAR0sofgGk6TlTgxhWyHy2TnwVVS1268YfRZvAmHfuNo0HJJCEPZO4-RVqTg#.XqhOakjkFgI.facebook

 

 

 

 

This quote in the article struck me...."Norwegian continues to receive new customer deposits and final payments on future bookings for 2020, 2021 and 2022."

 

Not sure how much they are receiving in final payments but seems to me anyone making a final payment could be putting themselves in place as an unsecured creditor if NCL doesn't make it through this.  Clearly the cruise industry, even in a best case scenario, won't return to some sort of normalcy until well into 2021.  Firstly people are going to have to get comfortable getting on a plane, which will take a while itself. 

[rafaelc]

Based on a 'desk top' analysis of the parent company Balance Sheet coupled with workout measures taken and other workout options that could be taken down the road, NCLH should have sufficient liquidity for the next 12 months.  If the crisis intensifies beyond this calendar yr, NCLH becomes a prime candidate for a takeover acquisition.  

[RJB]

19 minutes ago, tocruiseguy said:

 

 

This quote in the article struck me...."Norwegian continues to receive new customer deposits and final payments on future bookings for 2020, 2021 and 2022."

 

Not sure how much they are receiving in final payments but seems to me anyone making a final payment could be putting themselves in place as an unsecured creditor if NCL doesn't make it through this.  Clearly the cruise industry, even in a best case scenario, won't return to some sort of normalcy until well into 2021.  Firstly people are going to have to get comfortable getting on a plane, which will take a while itself. 

sure will. Also going halfway across the world where they could be stranded if another outbreak happens. Looking at the reports of the past month scared the hell out of me. 

[pingpong1]

2 hours ago, tocruiseguy said:

 

 

This quote in the article struck me...."Norwegian continues to receive new customer deposits and final payments on future bookings for 2020, 2021 and 2022."

 

Not sure how much they are receiving in final payments but seems to me anyone making a final payment could be putting themselves in place as an unsecured creditor if NCL doesn't make it through this.  Clearly the cruise industry, even in a best case scenario, won't return to some sort of normalcy until well into 2021.  Firstly people are going to have to get comfortable getting on a plane, which will take a while itself. 

"Cruiseguy" - Completely agree!  That NCL "quote" about "receiving final payment from customer for 2022 cruises" is nothing but "corporate happy-talk".  They're blowing smoke up somebodies .......  I have a friend, who in the past, always liked to send in "payments" every month or so to the cruiseline, from the time of first booking until final payment was due.  He always liked to arrive at his"final payment date" without "owing them" any additional remaining money.

 

Recently, I sat him down with a single-malt and a good cigar, and we had "the father/son talk".  Hopefully, I got through to him that in this "new world of cruising" he didn't want to be sending NCLH one more single dollar out of his wallet than he absolutely had to before the last minute!

 

I suggested that he just stick those early/advance payments into his own money-market fund.  Even draw a little paltry interest on it, and when the time came for the "final payment"....if there was still a cruise company to send the money to, and a cruise that "sounded" recognizable to the one he originally booked, that this would be the time to pay that final balance with a Chase Sapphire Card and then a month or two later, pay off the CC balance with the money out of his MM account.  There's just no logical reason (at least the way I'm looking at it) behind giving them the use of your dollars, interest free, with such high risk for upwards of a year or two in advance.  The money is much better located in your/his pocket for as long as possible, than in NCLH's!  Regards

[pinotlover]

I truly believe the Bloomberg article was generically correct. “ Those companies, outside of care, catering to the Elderly will be the last to recover. If they survive to recover!” 
 

Disney, Carnival, etc. have an entirely different targeted clientele than some other lines. If you’re a cruise line, waiting on customers whose median age exceeds 75 to resume sailing, your in more trouble than a line with a median age of 40. Fairly simple, actually.

Edited April 29, 2020 by pinotlover

[tocruiseguy]

27 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I truly believe the Bloomberg article was generically correct. “ Those companies, outside of care, catering to the Elderly will be the last to recover. If they survive to recover!” 
 

Disney, Carnival, etc. have an entirely different targeted clientele than some other lines. If you’re a cruise line, waiting on customers whose median age exceeds 75 to resume sailing, your in more trouble than a line with a median age of 40. Fairly simple, actually.

 

Yes, its a little surreal to me that anyone would even risk their deposit money at this point.  The cruise, airline and general tourism industries resurgence is more closely tied to a cure/vaccine for COVID than all others.  Who wants to get on a plane to go somewhere right now?   How many of us have been on planes where someone was coughing up a lung, sneezing, sniffling, remember how that made you feel?  Imagine how that would make you feel now?  Most of us need to fly to get to our cruise.  Some of the lines, specifically Princess will be suffering class action lawsuits over their handling of the outbreaks on the ships.  Not normally something that would take down a cruise company but things are anything but normal right now.  

[clo]

4 hours ago, rafaelc said:

Based on a 'desk top' analysis of the parent company Balance Sheet coupled with workout measures taken and other workout options that could be taken down the road, NCLH should have sufficient liquidity for the next 12 months.  If the crisis intensifies beyond this calendar yr, NCLH becomes a prime candidate for a takeover acquisition.  

That's all we needed. We're canceling our O cruise for 9/21. I really appreciate this.

[LHT28]

2 hours ago, pingpong1 said:

"Cruiseguy" - Completely agree!  That NCL "quote" about "receiving final payment from customer for 2022 cruises" is nothing but "corporate happy-talk". 

Wow  I did not think  anyone would be paying FP for a cruise in 2022   even 2021  at this point  ..maybe a world cruise but I think they might have  a month or so before that happens for the 2021  RTW cruise

What sailings  require FP  now  for 2022?

[LHT28]

4 hours ago, rafaelc said:

  If the crisis intensifies beyond this calendar yr, NCLH becomes a prime candidate for a takeover acquisition.  

Who would take them over?

Viking  maybe?

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I truly believe the Bloomberg article was generically correct. “ Those companies, outside of care, catering to the Elderly will be the last to recover. If they survive to recover!” 
 

Disney, Carnival, etc. have an entirely different targeted clientele than some other lines. If you’re a cruise line, waiting on customers whose median age exceeds 75 to resume sailing, your in more trouble than a line with a median age of 40. Fairly simple, actually.

There was a time when there was such a thing as loyal O cruiser - as old as he/she may have been. Times have changed - these days there are more ex-Princesss, X, HAL etc cruisers coming over to O - a whole new younger crowd.

[JVNYC]

11 hours ago, Paulchili said:

There was a time when there was such a thing as loyal O cruiser - as old as he/she may have been. Times have changed - these days there are more ex-Princesss, X, HAL etc cruisers coming over to O - a whole new younger crowd.

The O crowd is far from a younger crowd. I’m 49 and I have sailed 7 times and we definitely were the minority. 

[LHT28]

5 minutes ago, JVNYC said:

The O crowd is far from a younger crowd. I’m 49 and I have sailed 7 times and we definitely were the minority. 

well you just proved the point

There are younger people  sailing on Oceania  not all  are in their  80's

every cruise we have been on have  young people  as well as older  people  some middle aged people

I am sure even Disney have  older people  on their ships

 

[Paulchili]

22 minutes ago, JVNYC said:

The O crowd is far from a younger crowd. I’m 49 and I have sailed 7 times and we definitely were the minority. 

Before COVID every other thread here started with something like - Help - my first O cruise or switching from HAL, X, Princess and so on.

I have witnessed those changes on many of our last O cruises.

The point I was trying to make to Pinot that O will have its following after COVID (if they survive) even without a few octogenarians that he loves to talk about.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Paulchili

[Hawaiidan]

14 hours ago, LHT28 said:

Who would take them over?

Viking  maybe?

China......

[Hawaiidan]

2 hours ago, Paulchili said:

Before COVID every other thread here started with something like - Help - my first O cruise or switching from HAL, X, Princess and so on.

I have witnessed those changes on many of our last O cruises.

The point I was trying to make to Pinot that O will have its following after COVID (if they survive) even without a few octogenarians that he loves to talk about.

NCL  stock  has been up for several days now..    People are creatures of habit and they will return to their favorite comfort zone.    With all the stress created by the over the top lock downs the urge to get out again will be extreme among these people..   That will drive O    Remembering O had no virus problems  it was all carnival and others.    O will be seen as a safe haven in the crowd in my opinion.      Human nature  will win in the end..... not media and political hype.  

[commodore2010]

15 hours ago, LHT28 said:

Who would take them over?

Viking  maybe?

 

More likely the other way around.  Viking is a private owned company that does not have nearly the access to capital than that of an S&P 500 company.  I would be surprised if Viking even makes it out of this. 

[Hawaiidan]

9 minutes ago, commodore2010 said:

 

More likely the other way around.  Viking is a private owned company that does not have nearly the access to capital than that of an S&P 500 company.  I would be surprised if Viking even makes it out of this. 

Viking expanded so fast and is and had built a whole slew fleet of ships that they were expecting to leverage with growing business....  I agree  Viking  is  on thin ice  compared to a public traded company.

[ORV]

15 hours ago, clo said:

That's all we needed. We're canceling our O cruise for 9/21. I really appreciate this.

Is there more than more person that posts from your account? 

[njhorseman]

9 minutes ago, commodore2010 said:

 

More likely the other way around.  Viking is a private owned company that does not have nearly the access to capital than that of an S&P 500 company.  I would be surprised if Viking even makes it out of this. 

They have access to private capital and in fact in 2016 the private equity firm TPG and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board bought a 17% stake in Viking for $500 million. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/09/12/1093027/0/en/TPG-and-CPPIB-Invest-US-500-Million-in-Viking-Cruises.html

 

 In 2007 Apollo Management and TPG bought a 50% stake in NCL for $1 billion and in the same year Apollo bought nearly 100% of Oceania for $850 million.

 

It has been reported that NCLH has engaged the services of Goldman Sachs in search of investor(s) to boost NCLH's capital, and they have not ruled out private equity investment as a possible means to that end. This will tell you that NCLH is not in a strong financial position right now...hardly a surprise...and it also means that private equity may still be in play for the cruise industry.

[commodore2010]

No cruise line is in a strong financial position right now. Its all relative.  Yes,  all the cruise lines are looking at all types of money. They would be doing a disservice to their stockholders if they did not. 

 

My point was, and I still stand by it, is that an S&P 500 company is much more likely to survive than a private company. 

[LHT28]

35 minutes ago, commodore2010 said:

 

More likely the other way around.  Viking is a private owned company that does not have nearly the access to capital than that of an S&P 500 company.  I would be surprised if Viking even makes it out of this. 

so back to my question

Who would take them over ?

[Paulchili]

38 minutes ago, commodore2010 said:

 

More likely the other way around.  Viking is a private owned company that does not have nearly the access to capital than that of an S&P 500 company.  I would be surprised if Viking even makes it out of this. 

..and yet Viking refunded TWO of my deposits in THREE days - I'd say O has more trouble with cash flow than Viking. Maybe because they collect final payment 1 year in advance - that's a lot of money they hold.

I'll be lucky to see my O money in 90 days.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Paulchili