Masks probably required

[hazence]

28 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

 

Hmmm, seems like you are politicizing the debate. 😉  I thought you didn't like that. Even before the pandemic, I never went to NYC beaches. Too crowded and too inconvenient for me to get to.  I could be at a nicer beach much more quickly. I might go to LI beach but not right away, water is too cold. I also don't go to Walmart. Too crowded, but I will go to essential stores.  Physically attending church right now is not essential to me.

 

You are somewhat right. I'm okay with the country reopening ,especially less affected areas. I'm okay with NY reopening too in a gradual, common sense manner. I might even go as far as to say I feel better about NY than I do other parts of the country.  At one point, NY accounted for 50% of all new cases & deaths in the county. Today, the daily totals in NY are less than 10%, meaning that 90% of all new cases & deaths in the country are in places not named New York.  The daily numbers have been declining every day for 30+ days while in 30+ states, numbers continue to rise or stay the same.

 

Two people can look at the numbers in Texas, Georgia, SC and Florida and say they are not as bad as expected.  Person A will say 'Good for them, they locked down the state before the virus took hold and squashed the curve before it had a chance to rise. Good thing they didn't hesitate a few days like NY or Italy did". Person B will say "See, it was no big deal. Media Hype. Fear Porn. So many people over reacted".

 

Honestly, Person B scares me more than the virus. How many other things are they going to deny? Even worse, should there be a 2nd wave, those will be the ones making it worse than the 1st wave. Or if there is another, new disease in a few years, they'll point back to this and say, "see, the world didn't end", forgetting that countless lives have been saved.  How many? Who knows. Maybe 2.1 million if some estiimates are to be believed.

 

Bottom line, it is real, just because you don't see it in your backyard.  We can argue with numbers, morality rates, rates of transmission etc. all day long. But it happened, in China, Iran, Italy, Spain, NY, New Orleans, Michigan, Navajo nation, and meat packing plants across the country.

 

You and I probably agree more than we disagree. It might not come across that way as we both get stuck in the details of our debates. So on that note, enjoy this holiday weekend with your family, especially your daughter from London. Happy Memorial Day. Stay safe.  #flattenthecurve, #stopthespread.

 

P.S. - Montgomery, AL is running out of ICU beds and Ford closed down 2 plants it just reopened due to covid. Not....quite....out...of...the...woods....just....yet.   The floor is yours. 😇

 

 

 
 

HBE4...don’t tell anybody else around here but you are probably my favorite poster on CC. There is no one I admire or appreciate more than an intelligent, articulate “adversary” in a debate who can hold their own with civility, grace and a bit of humor.
 

That’s you. 
 

And nowadays with many of my usual activities curtailed...being challenged by you has provided me with some really challenging and...yes, fun distraction. Maybe one day, somewhere, on land or sea...we can move on to debating a fuller fulcrum of the worlds problems and then order dinner and drinks and critique the menu or the Chef’s cooking....and laugh and agree.

 

i wish you a lovely weekend too.

 

And, just one other  teeny little thing....those Ford closings were only a blip on the screen. 😎 

 

“Ford Motor closed and then reopened its Chicago Assembly plant twice in less than 24 hours after two workers tested positive for Covid-19, the company confirmed Wednesday.

The brief closures on separate shifts Tuesday are the first-known types of incidents since Detroit automakers started reopening their large North American assembly plants on Monday. The plants were shuttered in March in an attempt to protect workers and lower the spread of the disease.

Ford also shut down its Dearborn Truck plant in Michigan on Wednesday after an employee there tested positive for Covid-19, the company confirmed later in the day. It is expected to resume operations Wednesday night, according to a Ford spokeswoman.”

 

 

[Milwaukee Eight]

37 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

 

This post is so awesome, I'm quoting the whole thing again for effect.

 

Did you pee on anyone including yourself?  If not, I feel safer. 😇

[Milwaukee Eight]

I’m beginning to think if I don’t pee on myself or you, and you likewise the same for me, or let it hang out, we are safe from COVID19. 😇

[hazence]

1 hour ago, HBE4 said:

 

 

Hmmm, seems like you are politicizing the debate. 😉  I thought you didn't like that. Even before the pandemic, I never went to NYC beaches. Too crowded and too inconvenient for me to get to.  I could be at a nicer beach much more quickly. I might go to LI beach but not right away, water is too cold. I also don't go to Walmart. Too crowded, but I will go to essential stores.  Physically attending church right now is not essential to me.

 

You are somewhat right. I'm okay with the country reopening ,especially less affected areas. I'm okay with NY reopening too in a gradual, common sense manner. I might even go as far as to say I feel better about NY than I do other parts of the country.  At one point, NY accounted for 50% of all new cases & deaths in the county. Today, the daily totals in NY are less than 10%, meaning that 90% of all new cases & deaths in the country are in places not named New York.  The daily numbers have been declining every day for 30+ days while in 30+ states, numbers continue to rise or stay the same.

 

Two people can look at the numbers in Texas, Georgia, SC and Florida and say they are not as bad as expected.  Person A will say 'Good for them, they locked down the state before the virus took hold and squashed the curve before it had a chance to rise. Good thing they didn't hesitate a few days like NY or Italy did". Person B will say "See, it was no big deal. Media Hype. Fear Porn. So many people over reacted".

 

Honestly, Person B scares me more than the virus. How many other things are they going to deny? Even worse, should there be a 2nd wave, those will be the ones making it worse than the 1st wave. Or if there is another, new disease in a few years, they'll point back to this and say, "see, the world didn't end", forgetting that countless lives have been saved.  How many? Who knows. Maybe 2.1 million if some estiimates are to be believed.

 

Bottom line, it is real, just because you don't see it in your backyard.  We can argue with numbers, morality rates, rates of transmission etc. all day long. But it happened, in China, Iran, Italy, Spain, NY, New Orleans, Michigan, Navajo nation, and meat packing plants across the country.

 

You and I probably agree more than we disagree. It might not come across that way as we both get stuck in the details of our debates. So on that note, enjoy this holiday weekend with your family, especially your daughter from London. Happy Memorial Day. Stay safe.  #flattenthecurve, #stopthespread.

 

P.S. - Montgomery, AL is running out of ICU beds and Ford closed down 2 plants it just reopened due to covid. Not....quite....out...of...the...woods....just....yet.   The floor is yours. 😇

 

 

 

Oh that naughty CNN...always tweaking to serve the “narrative.“

 

https://www.wsfa.com/2020/05/21/montgomery-hospitals-can-handle-icu-bed-shortages-state-health-officer-says/

 

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris spoke Thursday afternoon about the state of hospitals in Montgomery, which Mayor Steven Reed says are at a “critical point.”

 

Harris said he is aware that many conventional Intensive Care Unit beds at Montgomery hospitals are filled; however, he said he spoke with Dr. Donald Williamson with the Alabama Hospital Association and understands hospitals have available spaces that can be used as ICUs.

 

***Harris also said this is nothing new.**

 

“I would say hospitals frequently, from time to time, have issues like this, and they generally do work those issues out between themselves,” Harris said.

He also said transfers of patients from Montgomery hospitals to Birmingham hospitals are not unusual, and he suspects a lot of people in Montgomery hospitals are from other parts of the state.

 

“I absolutely agree with the mayor that they have reached capacity there, but I also believe they have the ability within their four walls to handle that and handle more if necessary,” Harris said. 

 

Baptist Health seemed to echo Harris’ statements about the situation, saying in a press release that while capacity within ICUs has been reached throughout this pandemic, this is not ***uncommon within typical hospital day-to-day operations.****

 

“The availability of these beds is ever-evolving and the number of beds in use changes by the hour,” the release said. “This is the case in a non-COVID environment and remains consistent during the current COVID-19 pandemic.”

 

Baptist said when a patient requires highly specialized treatments or procedures not available locally, many of them are transferred to UAB Hospital in Birmingham. Likewise, smaller community hospitals in central Alabama often transfer patients Baptist Medical Center South, the tertiary care referral center.

 

Baptist said at this time, no patients have been transferred to Birmingham for COVID-related care.

[Ocean Boy]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I’ll try...... 

 

N95 is a mask that blocks at least 95% of virus spores and other particles, if fitted and worn properly.  It’s also best to wear with eye protection as well. This virus is not a contact virus and can only be spread through mouth, nose, and eyes. These are worn to protect the wearer from patients in quarantine. 
 

Mask worn by medical staff during surgeries and procedures, are worn to protect the patient, not the wearer. Eye protection is generally worn to protect the wearer. 
 

A mask, homemade or otherwise, doesn’t Necessarily protect the wearer (but possible some quantity of virus blocked). It’s intended to protect those around you as it reduces the amount of possible virus that is expelled from your mouth/nose. It’s not yet know how many spores are needed to infect someone. 

Best prevention is to wash your hands and try not to touch your face. 
 

Hope that helps....

So let me ask you this. If you happen to contract the virus while wearing a mask, could it be that by re-breathing air that you have just exhaled you are also re-breathing virus virus particles that you also just exhaled thus increasing the chances that you will end up with a symptomatic infection? Of course I already know he answer to the question..... it is who the heck knows.

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

So let me ask you this. If you happen to contract the virus while wearing a mask, could it be that by re-breathing air that you have just exhaled you are also re-breathing virus virus particles that you also just exhaled thus increasing the chances that you will end up with a symptomatic infection? Of course I already know he answer to the question..... it is who the heck knows.

You’re correct. I don’t have a clue. How do we protect ourselves from those Asymptomatic. That’s what scares me. 
 

We have one nursing home in Ormond Beach that has had 22 deaths of the 33 in our County. 15 staff were tested positive and Asymptomatic with no signs of infection. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[Computer Nerd]

6 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

You’re correct. I don’t have a clue. How do we protect ourselves from those Asymptomatic. That’s what scares me. 
 

We have one nursing home in Ormond Beach that has had 22 deaths of the 33 in our County. 15 staff were tested positive and Asymptomatic with no signs of infection. 

And yet an article came out today stating that the belief that Asymptomatic folks don't spread the virus, only symptomatic. Too many "experts" pulling people in too many different directions so I just follow what I believe and whatever happens, happens.

[Milwaukee Eight]

1 minute ago, Computer Nerd said:

And yet an article came out today stating that the belief that Asymptomatic folks don't spread the virus, only symptomatic. Too many "experts" pulling people in too many different directions so I just follow what I believe and whatever happens, happens.

Well, in that nursing home with 22 deaths, you tell them Asymptomatic people can’t transfer COVID19. 

[Ocean Boy]

1 hour ago, HBE4 said:

 

You are somewhat right. I'm okay with the country reopening ,especially less affected areas. I'm okay with NY reopening too in a gradual, common sense manner. I might even go as far as to say I feel better about NY than I do other parts of the country.  At one point, NY accounted for 50% of all new cases & deaths in the county. Today, the daily totals in NY are less than 10%, meaning that 90% of all new cases & deaths in the country are in places not named New York.  The daily numbers have been declining every day for 30+ days while in 30+ states, numbers continue to rise or stay the same.

 

Great post and I only shorted it for space. Here is the thing that I wonder about. With as hard hit as New York was, or Italy for that matter, and as contagious as the virus supposedly is, and how many people actually end up will slight or asymptomatic infections,  is there now going to be enough herd immunity in those populations so that if a second wave comes through those areas will be spared? It seems that we have moved from trying to not overwhelm the medical system to now attempting to stop any new infections. Is this actually the proper tact to take? I actually don't know the answer. Obviously, our goal in medicine is to prevent disease and not try to cure it once it happens. I just am not sure that applies to a virus that is not likely to just disappear and any vaccine in the near future is going to be a rush job.🤔

[hazence]

1 minute ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Well, in that nursing home with 22 deaths, you tell them Asymptomatic people can’t transfer COVID19. 

But it might be that all those patients infected the staff.  The staff was healthy enough to only have mild or zero symptoms.

[Ocean Boy]

2 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Well, in that nursing home with 22 deaths, you tell them Asymptomatic people can’t transfer COVID19. 

There is no question that we need to protect the vulnerable and people who are going to have contact with them should be tested. However, do the vulnerable, I don't mean nursing home residents,  have a duty to try to avoid contact with others during this time? I understand they may have to go to the grocery store as they may not have someone to go for them. I wear a mask there to possibly help protect them plus the fact that the store asks me to. However, do they have to go to the beach, or the hairdresser, or on a cruise, or a myriad of other non-essential places until things settle down a bit?

[Ocean Boy]

7 minutes ago, hazence said:

But it might be that all those patients infected the staff.  The staff was healthy enough to only have mild or zero symptoms.

That is a valid point. It isn't as if nursing home residents don't leave the facility.

[Milwaukee Eight]

3 minutes ago, hazence said:

But it might be that all those patients infected the staff.  The staff was healthy enough to only have mild or zero symptoms.

But that’s not what happened. Those patients just can’t get up and go out and about. Like I have said before, if the community you are in, be it your zip code, house, club, church, or whatever, has ZERO infection, the chance to get it is ZERO. Let one come in and ZERO is no longer a probability. 
 

The contact tracing showed some staff brought it in. These nursing homes don’t pay well. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

There is no question that we need to protect the vulnerable and people who are going to have contact with them should be tested. However, do the vulnerable, I don't mean nursing home residents,  have a duty to try to avoid contact with others during this time? I understand they may have to go to the grocery store as they may not have someone to go for them. I wear a mask there to possibly help protect them plus the fact that the store asks me to. However, do they have to go to the beach, or the hairdresser, or on a cruise, or a myriad of other non-essential places until things settle down a bit?

I agree. My 86 yo Mom doesn’t want to listen. She wants to “break free” as she calls. She went and got tested and thinks if she comes back negative, she can go out. 

[Ocean Boy]

7 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

But that’s not what happened. Those patients just can’t get up and go out and about. Like I have said before, if the community you are in, be it your zip code, house, club, church, or whatever, has ZERO infection, the chance to get it is ZERO. Let one come in and ZERO is no longer a probability. 
 

The contact tracing showed some staff brought it in. These nursing homes don’t pay well. 

But they do. They often leave for specialty medical appointments, family will take them out for the day to go shopping or home for a family visit. NH residents leave the facility for the day for many reasons. At least that was certainly the case before and when this was all starting to break.

 

Though I have to say, I don't really understand how it would be that an asymptomatic person would not be able to spread the disease unless maybe their viral load is just too low.

[HBE4]

50 minutes ago, hazence said:

And nowadays with many of my usual activities curtailed...being challenged by you has provided me with some really challenging and...yes, fun distraction. Maybe one day, somewhere, on land or sea...we can move on to debating a fuller fulcrum of the worlds problems and then order dinner and drinks and critique the menu or the Chef’s cooking....and laugh and agree.

 

 Thank you, And right back at you. It's been a pleasure and definitely a fun distraction. Plus, I learned a few things along the way as well 👍   And if we can't have fun while posting, then why do it? 

 

But perhaps someday. Although, in real life, I'm probably not nearly as witty or articulate as I seem to think I am on these boards. 😉

 

33 minutes ago, hazence said:

Oh that naughty CNN...always tweaking to serve the “narrative.“

 

LOL. I did hear about it on CNN but actually read up on it here.   verified it on a local news outlet. 😎

https://www.al.com/news/2020/05/montgomery-running-out-of-icu-beds-as-coronavirus-cases-double-in-may.html

 

"Montgomery hospitals are starting to run low on intensive care beds, said Dr. David Thrasher, a critical care doctor at Montgomery Pulmonary Consultants. The four counties making up the Montgomery metro area have seen a combined 721 new confirmed coronavirus cases since May 4 – an increase of 110 percent.

Mayor Steven Reed said the virus is straining the city’s hospitals.

“I’m concerned about the current status of the COVID-19 pandemic,” Reed said. “We are seeing an increase in the number of people who test positive. Occupancy in our Intensive Care Units has reached a critical point and Montgomery hospital officials are now referring some cases to Birmingham.”

 

 

[hazence]

15 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

But that’s not what happened. Those patients just can’t get up and go out and about. Like I have said before, if the community you are in, be it your zip code, house, club, church, or whatever, has ZERO infection, the chance to get it is ZERO. Let one come in and ZERO is no longer a probability. 
 

The contact tracing showed some staff brought it in. These nursing homes don’t pay well. 

 But weren’t we ALL zero at one point?
 

And, as I pointed out...my neighborhood is spilling over with people who have come from other areas. My county and the neighboring county have COVID infections.

 

My sisters nursing home allowed visits for the first weeks...they took them out to church. Doctors came in and treated them. Hairdressers came in. They were not hermetically sealed. Once the virus started, those frail and vulnerable souls were prime hosts for the infection.

 

Im not sure how anyone can PROVE at this point where the infection originated...it does not have DNA markings or fingerprints. They can assume...but are there ways to prove a source? In all honesty, if so...I’d like to read about it.

 

I just do not think there is settled science about these asymptomatic carriers and infection. I think it’s going to go the way of the once popular surface infections.

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by hazence

[HBE4]

20 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Great post and I only shorted it or space. Here is the thing that I wonder about. With as hard hit as New York was, or Italy for that matter, and as contagious as the virus supposedly is, and how many people actually end up will slight or asymptomatic infections,  is there now going to be enough herd immunity in those populations so that if a second wave comes through those areas will be spared? It seems that we have moved from trying to not overwhelm the medical system to now attempting to stop any new infections. Is this actually the proper tact to take? I actually don't know the answer. Obviously, our goal in medicine is to prevent disease and not try to cure it once it happens. I just am not that applies to a virus that is not likely to just disappear and any vaccine in the near future is going to be a rush job.🤔

 

You are correct. I think many people have forgotten that the lockdowns were meant to prevent the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. Now it's time to transition into a world where we live in with Covid-19.  Hopefully with the proper safety precautions and knowledge we'll gain, a 2nd wave will be nothing more than a blip.

 

Antibody testing in NYC has shown about 20-25% of the people have been exposed. That's been a consistent number as testing has been expanded. I'm surprised it's that low and does not bode well for hear immunity in the near future ,which I beleve kicks in around 70%, I think

 

 

[hazence]

Dr Fauci....today

 

 

Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC on Friday.

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,” Fauci said during an interview with CNBC’s Meg Tirrell on “Halftime Report.”

 

He said the U.S. had to institute severe measures because Covid-19 cases were exploding then. “But now is the time, depending upon where you are and what your situation is, to begin to seriously look at reopening the economy, reopening the country to try to get back to some degree of normal.”

[Tree_skier]

1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

It seems that we have moved from trying to not overwhelm the medical system to now attempting to stop any new infections. Is this actually the proper tact to take?

A person's view on this is shaped so much by your individual, idealogical worldview.  I think your statement here is the most significant question that needs to be answered and I'm not sure it is even answerable. We'll only know once we move down the track a ways and have greater hindsight.  The problem, as I see it, is that the goal posts have continually been moving and peoples response to this deception is an increasing unwillingness to submit to what appears to be unreasonable restrictions.  

 

First it was shelter in place for 2 weeks to help flatten the curve so we don't overwhelm the healthcare system. Then is was two more weeks. Here we are are 9 weeks later and now you have people saying we can't go back to normal until there is a vaccine.  Their constant "changing of the rules" has caused massive distrust in all sources of information. The politicization of this virus by some political leaders and media figures has destroyed peoples confidence in all sorts of sources of information. The polarization of society is now almost absolute and reasoned discourse is almost impossible.  Just look here at CC as a microcosm of society.  

[Tree_skier]

1 hour ago, HBE4 said:

Now it's time to transition into a world where we live in with Covid-19.  Hopefully with the proper safety precautions and knowledge we'll gain, a 2nd wave will be nothing more than a blip.

 

This is great statement and a position I wish more people could find. We need the middle ground so everyone can start moving forward.  

[D C]

3 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

A person's view on this is shaped so much by your individual, idealogical worldview.  I think your statement here is the most significant question that needs to be answered and I'm not sure it is even answerable. We'll only know once we move down the track a ways and have greater hindsight.  The problem, as I see it, is that the goal posts have continually been moving and peoples response to this deception is an increasing unwillingness to submit to what appears to be unreasonable restrictions.  

 

First it was shelter in place for 2 weeks to help flatten the curve so we don't overwhelm the healthcare system. Then is was two more weeks. Here we are are 9 weeks later and now you have people saying we can't go back to normal until there is a vaccine.  Their constant "changing of the rules" has caused massive distrust in all sources of information. The politicization of this virus by some political leaders and media figures has destroyed peoples confidence in all sorts of sources of information. The polarization of society is now almost absolute and reasoned discourse is almost impossible.  Just look here at CC as a microcosm of society.  

 

When hospitals are not overwhelmed and are furloughing workers, it's quite easy to question the ideology of those who are making the rules right now.   Flattening the curve so as to not overwhelm hospitals should never have turned into the situation that so many places find themselves in right now.   

[D C]

Just now, Tree_skier said:

 

This is great statement and a position I wish more people could find. We need the middle ground so everyone can start moving forward.  

Agreed!  It's not going away, yet so many people (and authorities) are acting as if we're trying to wait it out.  We won't.

 

We're going to end up in a world where reasonable precautions and a heightened sense of sanitization (is that a word?) will become the norm.   And someone really needs to fill the "hand coughers" in on that strategy. 

[Tree_skier]

23 minutes ago, D C said:

 

When hospitals are not overwhelmed and are furloughing workers, it's quite easy to question the ideology of those who are making the rules right now.   Flattening the curve so as to not overwhelm hospitals should never have turned into the situation that so many places find themselves in right now.   

I agree with you 100%. I'm living in a province in Canada of 5,000,000 people where we have 43 in hospital and 8 in ICU/CCU.  The continued imprisonment and restriction of the entire province is preposterous.  However, it will continue in spite of all the evidence.  Reasonableness has been thrown out the window.  We have had ZERO deaths under the age of 40 in BC yet schools are still closed. We are in stage two of the phased reopening plan and many places aren't opening because employee's are claiming they are too afraid to return to work. My suspicion is that fear is not why they are not coming back to work but I'm trying to post apolitically so we'll leave it there.

 

In this jurisdiction the cure has already vastly exceeded the disease.  I work in substance abuse.  I can tell you with absolute certainty that devastation is being wreaked upon children and young people as a result of school closures and the limiting of social services and recreational activities. I see this devastation on a daily basis. Reasonableness needs to find a way to make a comeback. Failing to do so will cost us dearly for generations to come.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Tree_skier

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

However, do the vulnerable, I don't mean nursing home residents,  have a duty to try to avoid contact with others during this time?

But then are we back to over 70 requiring a letter?  Over 65?  Everyone?