Will Celebrity really start back in August?

[Fouremco]

6 hours ago, verizon said:

Cruise ship bring in thousands of passengers that needs accommodations and food before and after the cruise.

Cruise lines industries can lift off the businesses of Airlines Hotels and Restaurants is consider one of the engine to boost the economy.

I have to agree with @ECCruise , there have been many studies that have found that land-based tourists contribute far more to the local economy than cruise passengers. The majority of cruisers will spend a night at the port of embarkation, some a few more, but less than the average visitor. As for the port of disembarkation, a large percentage of passengers head straight to the airport from the cruise terminal. As a consequence, even at these ports the amount spent by passengers is considerably less.  Also, your comment addresses only (dis)embarkation ports and fails to address the far more numerous ports of call where a pittance is spent by cruise passengers compared to land-based tourists.

[Prost Seattle]

This last group of cancellations was for a longer stretch of time (7 weeks vs. 4 weeks) so at least Celebrity was a tad more proactive this time.  I just have a hard time believing they’ll start a summer cruise season for 6-7 sailings. 

[madmacs]

21 minutes ago, ighten said:

To be fair I cant see the UK system lasting the first 3 weeks - If its like any other rule we have come up with (usually after the stable door was already so wide open you wont be able to find it to shut it) then most of the population seems to think it means after a few days you can just ignore it.

 

If Im agreeing with something coming from ryanair you know things have just become silly.. I see more U turns on the way

 

[madmacs]

Just now, madmacs said:

 

Horses and bolted do come to mind - update the scheme starts on June 8th. I would think it might last three weeks and then quietly disappear.

 

[ipeeinthepool]

Since I started this discussion, here are my thoughts.  I think August is a reasonable target.  I also like the Carnival model where they start sailing a few ships from a couple of departure cities.  This will allow the cruise line to refine the procedures for getting people on and off the ship.  They will also develop new approaches to entertainment and dining on a couple of ships.  I think Celebrity will follow Carnival's approach.

[yorky]

4 hours ago, ighten said:

To be fair I cant see the UK system lasting the first 3 weeks - If its like any other rule we have come up with (usually after the stable door was already so wide open you wont be able to find it to shut it) then most of the population seems to think it means after a few days you can just ignore it.

 

If Im agreeing with something coming from ryanair you know things have just become silly.. I see more U turns on the way

Yep, another shambles of a decision, at least people are now realising how badly we have managed the whole thing. When this is all over the government are going to have a lot of questions to answer. If they state one more time “ we are following the science” as a cop out for poor decision making I may actually scream.

Edited May 22, 2020 by yorky

[hcat]

1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Since I started this discussion, here are my thoughts.  I think August is a reasonable target.  I also like the Carnival model where they start sailing a few ships from a couple of departure cities.  This will allow the cruise line to refine the procedures for getting people on and off the ship.  They will also develop new approaches to entertainment and dining on a couple of ships.  I think Celebrity will follow Carnival's approach.

 

Maybe we can all ZOOM from our room!

[groryjm]

16 hours ago, Fouremco said:

I have to agree with @ECCruise , there have been many studies that have found that land-based tourists contribute far more to the local economy than cruise passengers. The majority of cruisers will spend a night at the port of embarkation, some a few more, but less than the average visitor. As for the port of disembarkation, a large percentage of passengers head straight to the airport from the cruise terminal. As a consequence, even at these ports the amount spent by passengers is considerably less.  Also, your comment addresses only (dis)embarkation ports and fails to address the far more numerous ports of call where a pittance is spent by cruise passengers compared to land-based tourists.

Maybe local shops and hotels don't benefit greatly but local tour operators and guides most certainly do. Not forgeting the port and docking fees which could amount to €20k or €30k going to the local authorities which is quite an insentive to have the ships there (Miami is about $44k).Then the home port has all the money coming in from refueling and vitaling the ship not forgeting the stevedore's wages. 

So all in all whilst local shops and businesses might get more from land based holiday makers the local authorities and government certainly do. They also are the ones with most influence as to whether a port is open to cruise ships

Edited May 23, 2020 by groryjm

[ighten]

You also need to take into account regardless of who pays what the simple power of the lobbying and party fund pound/dollar that a lot of these companies control .. My suspicion - as each country in the Western World starts to get numbers that wont overstretch its health service then you will see everything gradually head back to normal..

 

Because some facts are very simple - Cruises or Theatres ; Airlines or Theme Parks; Transport or Restaurants,; etc or etc cannot survive unless we return to normality and full capacities - There will probably be no vaccine for a long time (too long for any western govt or any of the above to wait).. If one good thing does come out of this re cruising it will be (IMO) personal hygiene will hopefully be more on peoples minds (TG)  and the buffets will  finally be history (:))

 

Will it be August - I doubt it - But I think youll be suprised how quickly it happens..

Edited May 23, 2020 by ighten

[bouhunter]

On 5/22/2020 at 7:10 AM, Cruise a holic said:

The real question is if the cruise ships start back in August, would you sail?  My answer is no.

No, and not because I'm worried about catching the virus.  Because:

 

1.  Not likely a fun experience with who knows what restrictions

2.  Won't cruise if I have to wear a mask.

3.  Don't want to end up on a quarantined prison ship.

4.  Probably limited (or zero) ports will be accepting ships.

 

I'm amazed at the people here who can't wait to get on a ship ASAP no matter what it will be like.  Cruising is an actual addiction for some people.

 

[harkinmr]

On 5/21/2020 at 11:25 AM, ECCruise said:

With one huge caveat.  If you access the whole statement from the CDC, all they are saying is that it is not the primary means of transmission, airborne is.  Which I think everyone already knew.

"It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus," the CDC wrote.

Thank you!!  Context is everything...but is missed or ignored by so many.  

[LXA350]

On 5/21/2020 at 5:03 PM, fstuff1 said:

i hope it starts.

i have a 28day b2b to Ireland starting aug 2 

 

Looking at the situation in North America if we will see cruises commence again as early as August the highest chance will be out of Europe, Mediteranean, cruises.

 

On one hand I canot see it happen yet, but looking at Italy for instance, no one would have thought they would open it's borders on June 3rd still some weeks ago. Hence this makes me somewhat optimistic to see X and RCL to start offerin cruises again as of August at least out of Europe. Given that the newest and largest ships enable the cruiselines a lower breakeven point seing Apex and Allure offering cruises as of August is quite a realistic scenario. Also, all those concepts that will need to be introduced, you need to start testing these under real conditions as various processes will also need to be adjusted but those lessons can only be learned from practical experience. Hence if the conditions allow it, even with lots of restrictions on the origin of passengers that can board the ship, likely only European Union ( Shengen) it's a start and with 2-3 ships operating X and RCL will manage to fill each ship at least at 30-50% capacity.

[drarill]

48 minutes ago, LXA350 said:

 

Looking at the situation in North America if we will see cruises commence again as early as August the highest chance will be out of Europe, Mediteranean, cruises.

 

On one hand I canot see it happen yet, but looking at Italy for instance, no one would have thought they would open it's borders on June 3rd still some weeks ago. Hence this makes me somewhat optimistic to see X and RCL to start offerin cruises again as of August at least out of Europe. Given that the newest and largest ships enable the cruiselines a lower breakeven point seing Apex and Allure offering cruises as of August is quite a realistic scenario. Also, all those concepts that will need to be introduced, you need to start testing these under real conditions as various processes will also need to be adjusted but those lessons can only be learned from practical experience. Hence if the conditions allow it, even with lots of restrictions on the origin of passengers that can board the ship, likely only European Union ( Shengen) it's a start and with 2-3 ships operating X and RCL will manage to fill each ship at least at 30-50% capacity.

Right now, I'm watching Spain's president  press conference.  He announced that Spain will be open for foreign (international) tourism in July.  Here is a link, in Spanish https://www.economiadigital.es/politica-y-sociedad/pedro-sanchez-anuncia-que-dejara-volver-a-los-turistas-en-julio_20065545_102.html

 

[yorky]

There is no doubt that parts of Europe are opening up to tourists far sooner than expected. Italy had stated the end of the year only two or three weeks ago. We have news feeds every day over here with tales of people struggling without tourists. This morning it was Cambodia which has seen a drop of ninety odd percent. Much of the world needs tourists, that’s just a fact. Pressure on the UK government already to drop the 14 day quarantine even before its started.

[LXA350]

12 minutes ago, drarill said:

Right now, I'm watching Spain's president  press conference.  He announced that Spain will be open for foreign (international) tourism in July.  Here is a link, in Spanish https://www.economiadigital.es/politica-y-sociedad/pedro-sanchez-anuncia-que-dejara-volver-a-los-turistas-en-julio_20065545_102.html

 

 

Given that International tourism (with restrictions) will be possible in countries such as France, Italy and Spain there is no reason why RCL and X will not use one or two Ships each to dip their toes into the water and start testing the "new" crusing world.

 

Concerning the restrictions we might see the US not to enter into Europe before September the earliest though and traveling for vacation into the Shengen countries might be possible within the member states and select countries in Asia. Also Canadians might be able to travel into Europe freely before the Americans as of August maybe.

[Fouremco]

5 hours ago, groryjm said:

Maybe local shops and hotels don't benefit greatly but local tour operators and guides most certainly do. Not forgeting the port and docking fees which could amount to €20k or €30k going to the local authorities which is quite an insentive to have the ships there (Miami is about $44k).Then the home port has all the money coming in from refueling and vitaling the ship not forgeting the stevedore's wages. 

So all in all whilst local shops and businesses might get more from land based holiday makers the local authorities and government certainly do. They also are the ones with most influence as to whether a port is open to cruise ships

No dispute, ports make money from cruises and cruise passengers. It's just that they make more money from other visitors.

[Miaminice]

Regarding this topich I recomend watching this interview - especially the first part.

Read or better listen between the lines....

 

 

[york survey]

2 hours ago, LXA350 said:

 

Looking at the situation in North America if we will see cruises commence again as early as August the highest chance will be out of Europe, Mediteranean, cruises.

 

On one hand I canot see it happen yet, but looking at Italy for instance, no one would have thought they would open it's borders on June 3rd still some weeks ago. Hence this makes me somewhat optimistic to see X and RCL to start offerin cruises again as of August at least out of Europe. Given that the newest and largest ships enable the cruiselines a lower breakeven point seing Apex and Allure offering cruises as of August is quite a realistic scenario. Also, all those concepts that will need to be introduced, you need to start testing these under real conditions as various processes will also need to be adjusted but those lessons can only be learned from practical experience. Hence if the conditions allow it, even with lots of restrictions on the origin of passengers that can board the ship, likely only European Union ( Shengen) it's a start and with 2-3 ships operating X and RCL will manage to fill each ship at least at 30-50% capacity.

I agree with a lot of what you’re saying.  Makes sense to start up in Europe and things are changing very quickly

 

However, I’ve never been on a celebrity Mediterranean cruise which had 30% shengen passengers but I have been on a Southampton cruise with about 50% British. 
 

I think celebrity will start up August and use the two ship already in Europe to test the market. Constellation (currently in Athens) will run the rest of her season and Apex (currently in northern France) will substitute silhouette to run out of Southampton (UK quarantine will be quickly scrapped 

One things for certain- this is not over yet!

 

 

[LDEE]

On 5/21/2020 at 1:28 PM, Langley Cruisers said:

I want to be optimistic, but I just can't be at this point. Our provincial health officer predicts a second wave in fall, and it could be devastating. I expect there will be second waves of this virus all over North America. I would not feel comfortable cruising this year at all. The reason they are going month to month is to collect final payments and then cancel the cruises, hoping customers will take FCC instead of refunds.

I think you maybe right. I read the total amount of cruise deposits that RCCL has equals the entirety of their liquid assests. Having read what other cruise ship companies are doing to prepare it will be more like a hospital visit then a cruise.

[jonthomas]

No nothing this year, but of course cruise lines will take deposits from foolish people. Also when cruising does start up, it will depend on what people will accept as a fun thing to do while having to distance, wear masks, etc. Doesn't seem like something I would spend money doing. 

[osborne66]

On 5/21/2020 at 9:41 AM, york survey said:

I think we’re on a similar page.  The question is where to start

 

The med is starting to get the situation under control and the U.K. is a few weeks behind them

 

But the release made a big play on “Drive to ports” and the U.K. (Southampton) is the only Europe port with enough drive to customers to cover the load break even numbers

 

Guess time will tell. But I stand by my main point. 
 

Very slow start up after August using Apex first

I doubt any cruise will go out of the UK any time from the 1st Aug - with the 14 day quarantine in place from the 8th Jun and no sight of it being lifted nobody will travel to the UK 

[scouseronline]

58 minutes ago, osborne66 said:

I doubt any cruise will go out of the UK any time from the 1st Aug - with the 14 day quarantine in place from the 8th Jun and no sight of it being lifted nobody will travel to the UK 

Hi Osborne66, We have a booking from Boston in October 2020, I am optimistic it'll sail, relatives meeting us from Liverpool for this sailing.  I wouldn't travel to the UK for a sailing based on how things are there right now. 

Cheers, 

[jonthomas]

So would you make final payment?

 

We have a new years cruise, Dec to Jan 2020. Final payment is in mid August. We will not be making it. Really cant imagine that the situation will be any different in 3 months from now. 

 

Really too bad. We love to be on a ship for New Years Eve. Have been looking forward to this one. Not a pessimist but I don't think it will sail and if it does, with all the restrictions it would have to have,  it is not my idea of cruising. As someone said, it is like sailing in a hospital. 

[K.T.B.]

I have a cruise scheduled for August 9th.  I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic.  So I'm going until I'm not!  

 

If it gets cancelled, I'll ask for the full refund and go from there.  I'll just make plans for Riviera Maya at between Christmas and New Year's then.

[luvabargain]

On 5/21/2020 at 9:07 AM, bouhunter said:

In their ever changing guessing and guidelines, the CDC now say's catching covid from surfaces is not likely.........….

Right?  This whole thing has been a crap shoot from the start.  I feel punk'd at this point.