Will cruising in Europe continue or be shutdown again?

[SelectSys]

It seems Europe as a whole is hitting record levels of COVID cases.  As it  just seems that any release of lockdown pressure results in lots of cases, does it seem reasonable that the limited cruising in Europe can continue?  Here is a graphic of daily cases as reported by the European CDC:

 

[chipmaster]

2 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

It seems Europe as a whole is hitting record levels of COVID cases.  As it  just seems that any release of lockdown pressure results in lots of cases, does it seem reasonable that the limited cruising in Europe can continue?  Here is a graphic of daily cases as reported by the European CDC:

 

 

Hard to believe some action wont' be taken, of course COVID19 exhaustion could become the end situation with it become herd mentality, LOL.   

 

 

[Flatbush Flyer]

5 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Hard to believe some action wont' be taken, of course COVID19 exhaustion could become the end situation with it become herd mentality, LOL.   

 

 

Everyone needs to "get a clue." Whether anyone likes it or not, if Americans booked on cruise lines serving primarily Americans can't get to (i.e., barred from) an embarkation port outside of the US, the chance of that cruise going are very doubtful (at best).

[lenquixote66]

15 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

It seems Europe as a whole is hitting record levels of COVID cases.  As it  just seems that any release of lockdown pressure results in lots of cases, does it seem reasonable that the limited cruising in Europe can continue?  Here is a graphic of daily cases as reported by the European CDC:

 

IMHO no cruising anywhere in the foreseeable future.

[SelectSys]

2 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Everyone needs to "get a clue." Whether anyone likes it or not, if Americans booked on cruise lines serving primarily Americans can't get to (i.e., barred from) an embarkation port outside of the US, the chance of that cruise going are very doubtful (at best).

 

My question was really independent of whether or not US residents and citizens were part of these cruises.  It seems that cruising in 2021, regardless of passenger origin, seems tough unless a change comes with respect to attitudes regarding COVID control - individual and governmental - and/or radically improved treatments exist.

 

2 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

IMHO no cruising anywhere in the foreseeable future.

 

Could be.  It seems without super strict lock downs and movement controls, COVID will simply continue to make a comeback the minute controls are relaxed at least until effective vaccines are in wide distribution.

[c-boy]

informative article,  from U K  c c  contributor Adam Coulter    https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5603/

[lenquixote66]

1 minute ago, c-boy said:

informative article,  from U K  c c  contributor Adam Coulter    https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5603/

Yes,cruise lines will likely resume but not in the way the were pre-Covid.That will take a long time ,I believe.However,I could be wrong.

[c-boy]

nothin' will be the same again in our future. Every time someone burps or sneezes, people standing in close proximity will cringe and glare. We live in paranoid times. 

[lenquixote66]

4 minutes ago, c-boy said:

nothin' will be the same again in our future. Every time someone burps or sneezes, people standing in close proximity will cringe and glare. We live in paranoid times. 

My point ,exactly.

[nascarcruiser]

This is not going away plain and simple.   A vaccine may help but the virus will mutate making the vaccine most likely ineffective by the time it is ready. There will be those who don't want to take a vaccine until it's proven effective and won't cause other issues.  Then there are those who won't take it at all.  

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, c-boy said:

nothin' will be the same again in our future. Every time someone burps or sneezes, people standing in close proximity will cringe and glare. We live in paranoid times. 

You are forgetting how short people’s memories.  By the end of 2022, COVID will by shrinking in our rear view mirror.  By 2024 (barring some new catastrophe : war, famine, plague, etc.) cruising will be back - probably two types - the mass market with 4,000+ pax ships (to maximize economies of scale and hold down fares to entice the budget-minded) - possibly largely limited to private islands as the more attractive ports try to protect what it is that makes them special;  and more traditional full service ships - probably 1,500-2,500 pax to lure the more selective cruisers willing to pay for quality food, service and itinerary.   

 

This is sort of split was likely to come about anyway - COVID was just a catalyst.

[sverigecruiser]

1 hour ago, nascarcruiser said:

 the virus will mutate making the vaccine most likely ineffective by the time it is ready. 

 

The virus can also mutate and become less dangerous. That is what I hope for. It may not happen but it can happen!

[nascarcruiser]

3 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

The virus can also mutate and become less dangerous. That is what I hope for. It may not happen but it can happen!

You do have a point.  Guess I just thinking 2020 is out to get us. 😅

[GrJ Berkshire]

If you read the restart article this is a very limited number, few will accept mixed nationalities and even less Brits ( as non-Schengen ) and few Americans. don't think that mix will be economically viable as a way forward. Any large ship (2000+) will be restricted to cruises to nowhere as the medical risk of port stops will not be possible, unless its only ship excursions. No getting off and exploring yourself ! Some may want a floating hotel, but many will not want to go nowhere?

Equally the restictions on entertainment , dining, leisure facilities will be hard to compare to pre-covid19. Are you going to want to be confined to a cabin for hours, sounds more like a Prison ship. Imagine entering San Fransisco bay and not being allowed off, more like Alcatraz...........................

[John Bull]

8 hours ago, c-boy said:

informative article,  from U K  c c  contributor Adam Coulter    https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5603/

 

The list of cruise lines is noteworthy for what it omits rather than for what it mentions.

Biggest cruise line serving UK ocean cruisers (P&O) will have no ships cruising again this year.

From November the second-largest (Marella) hope to operate ships only in the Canary Islands (Canaries currently have a significantly lower Covid problem than mainland Spain), and Fred Olsen & Saga each plan  just a couple of cruises around Xmas.

 

MSC are offering cruises from mid-November, but with significant restrictions & requirements.

I don't think Hurtigruten will be offering cruises this year, other than their regular Norwegian ferry/cruises.

 

They all remain hopeful about next year.

 

Currently tourists aren't permitted to enter the EU from non-EU countries, and if that ban is lifted this year it will be country-by-country and likely to be replaced by a quarantine requirement (remain in your accommodation) of 7 to 14 days on arrival.

 

Added to that, cruises might be cancelled at short notice, and tourists might have to quarantine when the get home - often without adequate notice, as has happened to Brit vacationers in Spain, Portugal, parts of Greece, etc.

 

Sadly, I really don't think North Americans should contemplate visiting Europe this year - and should be wary about cruises early next season. 

 

JB's optimism has been replaced by realism. The only cruising he's done this year is the Isle of Wight ferry and a 40-minute cruise on Shakespeare's  River Avon.  

 

JB 

 

 

[navybankerteacher]

It is fairly obvious that as soon as an area sees that they appear to have COVID under control, things ease up - and then infections spike up.  Americans are probably the most impatient/careless in this regard.  

 

With the coming colder weather (at least in Northern Hemisphere) more time spent indoors is likely to increase transmission - and with flu season about to start , it is hard to see too many cruises sailing before January .  By early 2021, the game might really change— given a vaccine, if effective and efficiently and widely distributed, things could change rapidly.  Without a vaccine, things will still improve, just more slowly as the contagion (LIKE ALL OTHERS IN HISTORY) fades away.   The wild card will be how seriously will ports/countries try to control things:  no available worthwhile ports wil mean very few cruises.

 

People just need to be patient.

Edited September 19, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[ontheweb]

15 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

The virus can also mutate and become less dangerous. That is what I hope for. It may not happen but it can happen!

And in a Darwinian sense that is what should happen. If the virus is to survive, the best thing it can do is not kill off all of its potential hosts. Without a vaccine that is how these outbreaks have ended in the past.

[sverigecruiser]

12 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

 

With the coming colder weather (at least in Northern Hemisphere) more time spent indoors is likely to increase transmission 

 

I hope that this year more time will be spent indoors in peoples homes so the transmission might not increase! 

[iancal]

Fortunately the powers that decide this issue are not relying on CC forums for data and advice on which to base their decision.

 

The bottom line is straightforward. This decision will not be in our sphere of influence.  We are bystanders as it were.

 

Fortunately cruising, and the wishes of cruisers and cruise corporations do not influence public health decisions of sovereign nations in Europe to any great extent.

Edited September 21, 2020 by iancal

[SelectSys]

On 9/18/2020 at 4:44 PM, GrJ Berkshire said:

...

Equally the restictions on entertainment , dining, leisure facilities will be hard to compare to pre-covid19. Are you going to want to be confined to a cabin for hours, sounds more like a Prison ship. Imagine entering San Fransisco bay and not being allowed off, more like Alcatraz...........................

 

I would agree this would put many people off.  I certainly don't like the idea of restricted shore excursions.  

 

On 9/18/2020 at 6:09 PM, John Bull said:

...

 

Sadly, I really don't think North Americans should contemplate visiting Europe this year - and should be wary about cruises early next season. 

 

JB's optimism has been replaced by realism. The only cruising he's done this year is the Isle of Wight ferry and a 40-minute cruise on Shakespeare's  River Avon.  

...

 

No plans for any European travel for the foreseeable future. Fortunately you can find pretty much anything you want in the US without crossing an international border.  I will let the Canadians comment on their alternatives as winter approaches.

 

On 9/18/2020 at 6:38 PM, navybankerteacher said:

It is fairly obvious that as soon as an area sees that they appear to have COVID under control, things ease up - and then infections spike up.  Americans are probably the most impatient/careless in this regard.  

...

People just need to be patient.

 

I think impatience is universal and it seems the only method of stopping spread is via government controls.  Not surprising that a super authoritarian place like China seems to have stopped the spread where it continues to persist in locations where individual rights have more sway.

 

 I think this article (https://www.thelocal.it/20200918/why-has-italy-had-fewer-new-covid-cases-than-other-parts-of-europe) holds a clue in trying to understand why Italy is doing relatively better than France and Spain.  It's not that people are different, it's that the current supporting systems are better. 

 

"But experts say the explanation is far more likely to be a combination of good testing and tracing systems, strictly-enforced safety rules, and the fact that Italy closed everything earlier and reopened later than in neighbouring countries."

 

Here is a graphic showing the current spread

 

 

[chipmaster]

EU is not looking good right now and the US is rising again with back to school/Labor Day-End of Summer.  

 

I suspect the winter will see an uptick when combined with the reappearance of the annual flu uptick will put brakes on tourism and cruising 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by chipmaster

[SelectSys]

1 hour ago, chipmaster said:

EU is not looking good right now and the US is rising again with back to school/Labor Day-End of Summer.  

 

I suspect the winter will see an uptick when combined with the reappearance of the annual flu uptick will put brakes on tourism and cruising 

 

 

That is my expectation as well. 

 

The selective lockdowns in Madrid are not going over well by many parties as they seem to target the poor.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-madrid/madrid-region-orders-partial-lockdown-in-poorer-areas-hit-by-covid-19-idUSKBN26927C

 

More to come.  

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by SelectSys

[chipmaster]

17 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

 

That is my expectation as well. 

 

The selective lockdowns in Madrid are not going over well by many parties as they seem to target the poor.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-madrid/madrid-region-orders-partial-lockdown-in-poorer-areas-hit-by-covid-19-idUSKBN26927C

 

More to come.  

 

 

The 1% or the 10%, etc. live in an alternate reality from the Poor and manual labor folks.  For the most part they are wealthy enough, have jobs that are more protected and were less impacted by the Pandemic and things like Cruising and Vacationing etc. are at the forefront of things they lost.   

 

The poor lost jobs, or had to continue to go to work getting exposed.  Not a surprise that certain economical groups seem more hard hit while the rest of us lament the loss of international travel, cruising and other terrible suffering ... LOL

[SelectSys]

31 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

The 1% or the 10%, etc. live in an alternate reality from the Poor and manual labor folks.  For the most part they are wealthy enough, have jobs that are more protected and were less impacted by the Pandemic and things like Cruising and Vacationing etc. are at the forefront of things they lost.   

 

The poor lost jobs, or had to continue to go to work getting exposed.  Not a surprise that certain economical groups seem more hard hit while the rest of us lament the loss of international travel, cruising and other terrible suffering ... LOL

 

Thanks for your post and I 100% agree.  Here is a graphic from 2016 that should help everyone see how fortunate they truly are:

 

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2016/10/what-is-your-world-income-percentile.html#.X20GvmhKiUk

 

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by SelectSys