CDC Level 4 Countries

[NavArch64]

One final thought ... it could be that the unvaccinated under 16's onboard could be the "weak link in the chain" ... particularly if some flew to St. Maarten a few days early with their family and were exposed locally. Again, I agree with you, this may be "overthinking the problem". But, I am trained as an engineer to always "think through the problem".

[gmjc2]

I am hoping that the high prices and the added cost of flying will deter families. Sorry but a kid free cruise is ideal. The fact that they are not required to be vaccinated bothers me. 

Here's hoping for an uneventful cruise. 

 

Maureen.

[dog]

36 minutes ago, gmjc2 said:

I am hoping that the high prices and the added cost of flying will deter families. Sorry but a kid free cruise is ideal. The fact that they are not required to be vaccinated bothers me. 

Here's hoping for an uneventful cruise. 

 

Maureen.

I hope you have the best time and b safe. Let us know how it is going. It will tell us a lot about the future of cruising. 

[NavArch64]

I share these same thoughts ... Maureen, I hope that you have a most enjoyable and safe voyage. You will have an early experience of a safe return to sea in the Americas.

[capriccio]

See 47 passengers test positive after overseas flight (https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/47-passengers-test-positive-after-overseas-flight/news-story/66440c32e75883100c3728927a557423) about a five hour flight from Delhi to Hong Kong on April 4 where everyone tested negative within a 72-hour pre-flight window and 47 eventually tested positive afterwards (out of 188 passengers): 

 

Six passengers tested positive upon arrival in Hong Kong but there would be more. There were 25 cases linked to the flight by the end of the first week and another 22 passengers tested positive almost two weeks after arriving.

 

But after arriving in Hong Kong where all passengers from overseas are required to enter mandatory hotel quarantine, the cases exploded.

 

These were passengers arriving from India where the pandemic was getting more dire by the day in early April. The article did not mention what on board precautions were enforced. The number of cases upon arrival calls into question (at least to me) the accuracy of relying on a test that could be up to 72 hours old.  The remaining cases, especially those nearing the 2 week mark, are the most worrisome. 

[nocl]

6 hours ago, NavArch64 said:

One final thought ... it could be that the unvaccinated under 16's onboard could be the "weak link in the chain" ... particularly if some flew to St. Maarten a few days early with their family and were exposed locally. Again, I agree with you, this may be "overthinking the problem". But, I am trained as an engineer to always "think through the problem".

As indicated by this story it just takes 1

 

https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/health/info-2021/nursing-home-worker-sparks-covid-outbreak.html

 

An unvaccinated health care worker is believed to be at the epicenter of a March COVID-19 outbreak in a Kentucky nursing home where nearly 50 people were infected, including 18 fully vaccinated residents. Three residents — including two who were unvaccinated — died, according to a review of the incident published Wednesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

[PrincessLuver]

3 hours ago, capriccio said:

See 47 passengers test positive after overseas flight (https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/47-passengers-test-positive-after-overseas-flight/news-story/66440c32e75883100c3728927a557423) about a five hour flight from Delhi to Hong Kong on April 4 where everyone tested negative within a 72-hour pre-flight window and 47 eventually tested positive afterwards (out of 188 passengers): 

 

Six passengers tested positive upon arrival in Hong Kong but there would be more. There were 25 cases linked to the flight by the end of the first week and another 22 passengers tested positive almost two weeks after arriving.

 

But after arriving in Hong Kong where all passengers from overseas are required to enter mandatory hotel quarantine, the cases exploded.

 

These were passengers arriving from India where the pandemic was getting more dire by the day in early April. The article did not mention what on board precautions were enforced. The number of cases upon arrival calls into question (at least to me) the accuracy of relying on a test that could be up to 72 hours old.  The remaining cases, especially those nearing the 2 week mark, are the most worrisome. 

 

It's working for Hawaii!!!

[nocl]

3 hours ago, capriccio said:

See 47 passengers test positive after overseas flight (https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/47-passengers-test-positive-after-overseas-flight/news-story/66440c32e75883100c3728927a557423) about a five hour flight from Delhi to Hong Kong on April 4 where everyone tested negative within a 72-hour pre-flight window and 47 eventually tested positive afterwards (out of 188 passengers): 

 

Six passengers tested positive upon arrival in Hong Kong but there would be more. There were 25 cases linked to the flight by the end of the first week and another 22 passengers tested positive almost two weeks after arriving.

 

But after arriving in Hong Kong where all passengers from overseas are required to enter mandatory hotel quarantine, the cases exploded.

 

These were passengers arriving from India where the pandemic was getting more dire by the day in early April. The article did not mention what on board precautions were enforced. The number of cases upon arrival calls into question (at least to me) the accuracy of relying on a test that could be up to 72 hours old.  The remaining cases, especially those nearing the 2 week mark, are the most worrisome. 

Even PCR has a 20% false negative rate at its best according to research by John Hopkins.  That is 3 days after symptoms start.  Prior to symptoms it can be as high as 80% false negative.

 

Testing is a tool to help control spread it is no an absolutely certain detector.  One of the ways to look at it is to test a population such as those getting onto a plane and see how many positives you get.  If you get zero the chance of someone infected being on the plane is pretty low, but not zero.  If you get positives then the chance of an undetected case increases with every positive you find because it indicates the amount of illness present in the population. Depending of course on the relationship if any between the positive cases.

[capriccio]

28 minutes ago, nocl said:

Even PCR has a 20% false negative rate at its best according to research by John Hopkins.  That is 3 days after symptoms start.  Prior to symptoms it can be as high as 80% false negative.

 

Testing is a tool to help control spread it is no an absolutely certain detector.  One of the ways to look at it is to test a population such as those getting onto a plane and see how many positives you get.  If you get zero the chance of someone infected being on the plane is pretty low, but not zero.  If you get positives then the chance of an undetected case increases with every positive you find because it indicates the amount of illness present in the population. Depending of course on the relationship if any between the positive cases.

nocl - I appreciate the explanation and all those you have contributed in the past!

[tanyaewa]

19 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

Not true.

 

According to experts, the risk of catching the coronavirus on a plane is relatively low if the airline is following the procedures laid out by public health experts: enforcing mask compliance, spacing out available seats and screening for sick passengers.  

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/odds-catching-covid-19-flight-wellness-scn/index.html

Yes true. You just don’t trace it in the US

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/04/19/record-flight-covid-19-us-contact-tracing/?sh=1da7efc312f0

 

My original option was exactly this.... if a passenger leaves the plane, it’s not the airlines “fault” when he comes up positive 3 days later.
 
On a ship.... it’s a big problem for the cruise line.  Again,  in my opinion, It will be along time before they are willing to take the risk and shut down their whole industry again.  The financial risk of a premature reopening and shut down  is far too great. They are happy stringing cruise fanatics along and taking deposits for cruises that are unlikely to happen for a good number of months.  I’ve never seen another situation where people are happy to pre pay for a service they may never receive.  It’s fascinating 

Edited April 25, 2021 by tanyaewa

[memoak]

28 minutes ago, tanyaewa said:

Yes true. You just don’t trace it in the US

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/04/19/record-flight-covid-19-us-contact-tracing/?sh=1da7efc312f0

 

My original option was exactly this.... if a passenger leaves the plane, it’s not the airlines “fault” when he comes up positive 3 days later.
 
On a ship.... it’s a big problem for the cruise line.  Again,  in my opinion, It will be along time before they are willing to take the risk and shut down their whole industry again.  The financial risk of a premature reopening and shut down  is far too great. They are happy stringing cruise fanatics along and taking deposits for cruises that are unlikely to happen for a good number of months.  I’ve never seen another situation where people are happy to pre pay for a service they may never receive.  It’s fascinating 

Deposits are minimal and I doubt anyone is making full payment for cruises that are not sailing. I have moved all of our 2021 cruises to 2022. I am not counting on any cruise happening for another 5 to 6 months from now

[capriccio]

35 minutes ago, tanyaewa said:

Yes true. You just don’t trace it in the US

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/04/19/record-flight-covid-19-us-contact-tracing/?sh=1da7efc312f0

 

My original option was exactly this.... if a passenger leaves the plane, it’s not the airlines “fault” when he comes up positive 3 days later.
 
On a ship.... it’s a big problem for the cruise line.  Again,  in my opinion, It will be along time before they are willing to take the risk and shut down their whole industry again.  The financial risk of a premature reopening and shut down  is far too great.

 

 

Thank you for the Forbes article.  I agree with you that the cruise lines need to tread carefully because the spread of Covid on even a single cruise will be a public relations nightmare.

 

 

5 minutes ago, memoak said:

Deposits are minimal and I doubt anyone is making full payment for cruises that are not sailing. I have moved all of our 2021 cruises to 2022. I am not counting on any cruise happening for another 5 to 6 months from now

 

We had a family cruise (6 adults, 2 kids) scheduled for last summer that I didn't even consider rescheduling for this summer.   I've rescheduled it for July 2022.  As of tomorrow all of the adults will have been vaccinated (although I imagine boosters may be required in the next 14 months) and we are hoping that a vaccine for children (our grandchildren will be 7 1/2 and almost 3) will have been made available by then.  If not, or if all passengers and crew aren't required to be vaccinated, we are prepared to cancel at final payment.

[K.T.B.]

1 hour ago, memoak said:

Deposits are minimal and I doubt anyone is making full payment for cruises that are not sailing. I have moved all of our 2021 cruises to 2022. I am not counting on any cruise happening for another 5 to 6 months from now

 

Agreed.  I am still holding firm of my prediction of cruising really beginning in October and reduced capacity, with full on cruising in December.  All with fully vaccinated passengers and crew.

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, memoak said:

Deposits are minimal and I doubt anyone is making full payment for cruises that are not sailing. I have moved all of our 2021 cruises to 2022. I am not counting on any cruise happening for another 5 to 6 months from now

Well, I'm thinking that our October Sky Princess cruise to the Med from Southampton will go ahead. The big question is if we can get off at any of the ports!

[gmjc2]

Did not need to se that report on the flight from Delhi!  My daughter is just now arriving on a 8 hour flight to London. Fully vaccinated so hoping for the best!

 

Maureen.

[gmjc2]

KTB --are you on the Meet and Greet list for June 12th?  How about slot pull? 

[K.T.B.]

49 minutes ago, gmjc2 said:

KTB --are you on the Meet and Greet list for June 12th?  How about slot pull? 

 

I don't have a cruise on June 12th.

[gmjc2]

It was weird  I got an e.mail update from  CC with a post from you saying that you were on the June 12th cruise I had posted about. When I followed the link your post was not there!  Then I got another similar message from another thread I follow and the same thing happened!

Has anyone else experienced this?

 

[LeeRB]

On 4/26/2021 at 9:31 AM, gmjc2 said:

It was weird  I got an e.mail update from  CC with a post from you saying that you were on the June 12th cruise I had posted about. When I followed the link your post was not there!  Then I got another similar message from another thread I follow and the same thing happened!

Has anyone else experienced this?

 

It has happened to me several times in the last month, to include a complete discussion I was part of disappearing out of one thread.

 

Rick

[LeeRB]

On 4/25/2021 at 6:34 AM, gmjc2 said:

We are on that cruise June 12th so we will report back!!!

I will be looking forward to hearing how things went. I don’t have anything booked until Nov 13th; but I am having second thoughts about that cruise, what with the CDC's current no sailing pause not expiring until Nov 1st. It was booked as refundable deposit so I have until late July to cancel with full refund, unless RCI changes the rules on me.

 

Rick

[gmjc2]

7 minutes ago, LeeRB said:

I will be looking forward to hearing how things went. I don’t have anything booked until Nov 13th; but I am having second thoughts about that cruise, what with the CDC's current no sailing pause not expiring until Nov 1st. It was booked as refundable deposit so I have until late July to cancel with full refund, unless RCI changes the rules on me.

 

 

 

Rick

 

We have the June 12th out of St.Marteen so that should sail unless some major changes occur.

On the other hand we have a TA from Barcelona to FT. Lauderdale booked for Nov 10th. It has two potential issues to overcome.

1. It is 15 days

2. Has to arrive at an American port.

 

If the CDC rules apply to arrivals as well as departures then we need those two issues to be resolved before we can be sure of that cruise!

[K.T.B.]

23 minutes ago, gmjc2 said:

We have the June 12th out of St.Marteen so that should sail unless some major changes occur.

On the other hand we have a TA from Barcelona to FT. Lauderdale booked for Nov 10th. It has two potential issues to overcome.

1. It is 15 days

2. Has to arrive at an American port.

 

If the CDC rules apply to arrivals as well as departures then we need those two issues to be resolved before we can be sure of that cruise!

 

Not 100% sure, but I think the "7 day limit" is only for cruises sailing OUT of the US, not into.  I may be wrong though.

[gmjc2]

I have not seen any info that specifically mentions arrival as opposed to departures.So it will be interesting to see how it devopes. Balance is due in August so we have a little time!

[LeeRB]

1 hour ago, gmjc2 said:

We have the June 12th out of St.Marteen so that should sail unless some major changes occur.

On the other hand we have a TA from Barcelona to FT. Lauderdale booked for Nov 10th. It has two potential issues to overcome.

1. It is 15 days

2. Has to arrive at an American port.

 

If the CDC rules apply to arrivals as well as departures then we need those two issues to be resolved before we can be sure of that cruise!

If that TA doesn’t sail to Ft Lauderdale, it may go to one of the ‘new’ home ports in the Caribbean if the CDC is still being obstinate. You would just have to arrange transport from that port to Florida. The only problem I see would possibly be the 15 days even if the CDC opens up cruising; but I honestly doubt if they will bless anything over 7-8 nights until sometime next year. The cruise line may be able to get around that with a little creative scheduling and having the TA terminating at one of the ‘new’ homeports in the Caribbean and the rest of the trip being a one way from that port to Ft Lauderdale. I encountered one like that back in 2016 with a Carnival Journeys cruise. It was a 21 night Miami to Miami round trip; but you could also book only the first half (10 night) Miami to San Juan segment or the second half (11 night) San Juan to Miami segment. Whether the CDC opens up cruising or not the actual issue may turn out to be will the cruise line be too leery about the possible consequences something happening on a cruise that long, that soon to actually chance it.

 

Enough about that, I wish you good health and much fun on your June sailing; and I hope everything works out on the TA this fall.  

 

Rick

[gmjc2]

That is a creative idea but the day count would still be more than 7 for the leg from Barcelona to the Caribbean. It stops in 2 ports in Morocco which is why we chose this trip. We will add another country and continent from our bucket list .