Two Test Positive On Millenium

[jtwind]

From Harvard Medical site (read last paragraph):

 

Antigen tests

How is it done? A nasal or throat swab.

Where can you get these tests? At a hospital, a doctor’s office or at home (the FDA has authorized a home antigen test that requires no prescription).

What does the test look for? This test identifies protein fragments (antigens) from the virus.

How long does it take to get results? The technology involved is similar to a pregnancy test or a rapid strep test, with results available in minutes.

What about accuracy? False negative results tend to occur more often with antigen tests than with molecular tests. This is why antigen tests are not favored by the FDA as a single test for active infection. Because antigen testing is quicker, less expensive, and requires less complex technology to perform than molecular testing, some experts recommend repeated antigen testing as a reasonable strategy. As with the molecular test, the false positive rate of antigen testing should be close to zero.

[sunlover33]

53 minutes ago, Tippyton said:

The more I think about it, given the number of breakthrough infections at almost nil, the likelihood of any fully vaccinated person transmitting is almost nil, and the likelihood of any truly problematic (meaning needle-moving in the grand scheme of things) event, the preponderance of immunity overall in the Western countries, the idea that we test vaccinated and recovered people seems highly irrational.  Just as the draconian lockdowns were a disproportional response to the threat, that we test (and respond as paranoidedly expected) this immmune cohort at all seems even worse.  Even testing anybody who is not symptomatic seems bizarre.  We dont flu [insert any other medical diagnostic] test everybody do we?.  We dont test any other industry do we?

 

So we have a positive test from two people who are otherwise not unwell.  So what?  Mask or not at your own risk, distance or not at your own risk, vaccinate or not at your own risk.

 

Evidence we have delusional people still making decisions.

With attitudes like this it’s hardly surprising that we are having problems with variants. People are acting as if this is now all over because they are fully vaccinated. Full vaccination doesn’t prevent you from catching or transmitting this virus, although it greatly decreases the risk of becoming hospitalised and dying. The more people who spread the virus, either by being unvaccinated or spreading it unknowingly the bigger risk we have of having a  variant that completely evades the vaccine. In this scenario we are then all back to square one. Lockdowns, masks, social distancing while difficult are the best was to reduce spread until we reach a point where the virus is unable to transmit. Unless we continue to test how do we know how much infection is still circulating in the population and more importantly what variants are spreading? I for one am glad Celebrity are taking such stringent measures and I hope they continue to do so for the foreseeable future, to not only protect cruisers but also the elderly and vulnerable in our society who cannot rely solely on being vaccinated.  

[kathy49]

1 minute ago, sunlover33 said:

With attitudes like this it’s hardly surprising that we are having problems with variants. People are acting as if this is now all over because they are fully vaccinated. Full vaccination doesn’t prevent you from catching or transmitting this virus, although it greatly decreases the risk of becoming hospitalised and dying. The more people who spread the virus, either by being unvaccinated or spreading it unknowingly the bigger risk we have of having a  variant that completely evades the vaccine. In this scenario we are then all back to square one. Lockdowns, masks, social distancing while difficult are the best was to reduce spread until we reach a point where the virus is unable to transmit. Unless we continue to test how do we know how much infection is still circulating in the population and more importantly what variants are spreading? I for one am glad Celebrity are taking such stringent measures and I hope they continue to do so for the foreseeable future, to not only protect cruisers but also the elderly and vulnerable in our society who cannot rely solely on being vaccinated.  

I don't blame people for thinking like this...the message has been sent (at least in US) that we have an "all clear' and those of use that continue to be cautious are somehow  not understanding things.

[sunlover33]

1 minute ago, kathy49 said:

don't blame people for thinking like this...the message has been sent (at least in US) that we have an "all clear' and those of use that continue to be cautious are somehow  not understanding things.

We thought the same in the U.K. but now despite social distancing, still some social restrictions and mask wearing in shops etc our numbers of infected are rising rapidly again and hospitalisations are up too, due to the much more transmissible delta variant.   Luckily the death rates have remained low, so vaccines are working but not quite as effectively, it just illustrates how easily a different variant can have an effect on a situation and  it’s far to soon to think this is all over and that we can just go back to life as we knew it before. The concern is if you don’t test you have no clue what’s happening. 

[kathy49]

The message in US  is  that we are "back to normal" and no  restrictions on anything ...comes from the White House down to main street. No incentive to get to the 70% hoped for vaccinations anymore at all...doses of J and J being thrown away and many not getting second dose. Our numbers are down RIGHT NOW but no telling what is ahead.  It is tempting to want to believe this but caution is required. Again to tie this to the cruise ship involved...just not surprising and not the last such report.

[harkinmr]

1 minute ago, kathy49 said:

The message in US  is  that we are "back to normal" and no  restrictions on anything ...comes from the White House down to main street. No incentive to get to the 70% hoped for vaccinations anymore at all...doses of J and J being thrown away and many not getting second dose. Our numbers are down RIGHT NOW but no telling what is ahead.  It is tempting to want to believe this but caution is required. Again to tie this to the cruise ship involved...just not surprising and not the last such report.

The message that it’s all over is not coming from the White House or the CDC. Caution should still be the watchword and there is still a push on vaccines. Unfortunately, we are battling misinformation and increased vaccine resistance. Not an easy thing at all.  

[ipeeinthepool]

16 minutes ago, sunlover33 said:

With attitudes like this it’s hardly surprising that we are having problems with variants. People are acting as if this is now all over because they are fully vaccinated. Full vaccination doesn’t prevent you from catching or transmitting this virus, although it greatly decreases the risk of becoming hospitalised and dying. The more people who spread the virus, either by being unvaccinated or spreading it unknowingly the bigger risk we have of having a  variant that completely evades the vaccine. In this scenario we are then all back to square one. Lockdowns, masks, social distancing while difficult are the best was to reduce spread until we reach a point where the virus is unable to transmit. Unless we continue to test how do we know how much infection is still circulating in the population and more importantly what variants are spreading? I for one am glad Celebrity are taking such stringent measures and I hope they continue to do so for the foreseeable future, to not only protect cruisers but also the elderly and vulnerable in our society who cannot rely solely on being vaccinated.  

 

I'm sorry but this just isn't true.  Once you've been vaccinated there is negligible risk that you can infect someone if you develop a break through case and don't have any symptoms.  After you've been vaccinated you don't need lockdowns, masks or social distancing for Covid. 

[BigAl94]

5 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I'm sorry but this just isn't true.  Once you've been vaccinated there is negligible risk that you can infect someone if you develop a break through case and don't have any symptoms.  After you've been vaccinated you don't need lockdowns, masks or social distancing for Covid. 

That simply is wrong. Can you still transmit Covid-19 after vaccination? - BBC Future

[Sykes]

15 minutes ago, BigAl94 said:

That simply is wrong. Can you still transmit Covid-19 after vaccination? - BBC Future

That article reflects the understanding we had when it was published on February 3rd. It is no longer correct. We now understand that the vaccine is as much as 92% effective at preventing COVID infection itself, and this means that it is up to 92% effective at preventing transmission. See table 1b in this article, which is routinely updated with new information:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

 

We now also have reason to believe that vaccinated people with breakthrough infections have a far lower viral load than unvaccinated people, which further reduces transmission. Vaccinated people can still get and transmit the disease (65-92% effectiveness is not 100% effectiveness), but they're far far less likely to.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Sykes

[TeeRick]

7 minutes ago, BigAl94 said:

That simply is wrong. Can you still transmit Covid-19 after vaccination? - BBC Future

Article from early February.

[sunlover33]

16 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I'm sorry but this just isn't true.  Once you've been vaccinated there is negligible risk that you can infect someone if you develop a break through case and don't have any symptoms.  After you've been vaccinated you don't need lockdowns, masks or social distancing for Covid. 

The jury is still very much out on this one. https://theconversation.com/can-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19-still-spread-the-coronavirus-161166
 

[Aloha 1]

Back to the topic, I just watched the YT channel blog from the TA on board. An excellent wrap up of this whole incident. Bottom line is they did do a follow up PCR test which also showed SAR-CoV-2 present but both passengers remain asymptomatic. No other passengers or crew tested positive and belief is that the two picked up the virus sometime after their entry test for St. Martin but before they boarded the ship. No info on what amount of virus was present but apparently not enough to be of concern for transmission by medical staff on board. TA VERY complimentary about how X handled the entire thing. A very logical and common sense presentation. 

[cangelmd]

2 hours ago, kathy49 said:

is there some official statement as to the normal test being antigen and now a pending pcr after two positive antigen. there are so many stories flying around that I tend to not take any seriously. I am pretty sure that the normal tests for these cruises is antigen as they are far less expensive but if false ++ get too frequent that is going to really mess things up.

As a lab medicine person, I see one immediate silver lining in all this - if they are using rapid antigen tests (and that’s likely to get everyone tested before disembarking) - we are PDQ going to find out under real world conditions which rapid test performs best! That company is going to make a boatload (pun intended) of money.

Also, from my experience, false positives are very low with these tests - lower than PCR for some tests and reasons- false negatives or testing just before person turns positive is a much more likely scenario.

[TeeRick]

3 minutes ago, sunlover33 said:

The jury is still very much out on this one. https://theconversation.com/can-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19-still-spread-the-coronavirus-161166
 

Rare and isolated cases can happen.  Everybody who follows the science will acknowledge that.  But to say the jury is still very much out on the question of highly reduced transmission from vaccinated people is misleading.  Lots and lots of real world data says otherwise.  But some choose to only focus on breakthrough cases.

[NMTraveller]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Yes which makes this a very unusual case indeed.  I won't speculate on this.  Maybe we will eventually find out the story.  IMO everybody should leave it at that.  The procedures worked which is the best possible news.

While the CDC lists the probabilities of breakthrough cases as being very rare,  the level of testing for vaccinated people is also very low on land.  If someone gets the vaccine, gets Covid and shows zero symptoms are they going to get tested on land?  How would they know to get tested?  The only circumstances I can see people getting tested would be on a cruise or if they are traveling back into the US.  I think that the numbers are skewed by the lack of testing and they are missing some cases.  

 

We need more cruises and data to see what is really happening here.

 

It is extremely encouraging that the 2 cases were not spread to others.

Edited June 12, 2021 by NMTraveller

[marieps]

1 hour ago, cruisingator2 said:

Try reading from an actual passenger “onboard “ the ship. Everyone was in the process of being tested to head back to St. Maarten. Hopefully the below site is not against CC’s rules to post. 
 

https://cruise.blog/2021/06/live-celebrity-millennium-third-party-excursion-and-night-quarantine?fbclid=IwAR2Jb1eGA8BZpERGKIsx3qRn0FhAG3Ocf8uUy4MJYPZkRMTyeiUBHQva6c4

I found this post to be extremely informative and positive.  Thanks so much for pasting it.

[jtwind]

All of this stuff is really going to help folks who were on the fence about wanting to be early adopters or not.  As you read through this thread, it's easy to figure out whether the announcement of 2 positive cases would ruin your last few days, or if it wouldn't bother you.

[ipeeinthepool]

9 minutes ago, NMTraveller said:

While the CDC lists the probabilities of breakthrough cases as being very rare,  the level of testing for vaccinated people is also very low.  If someone gets the vaccine, gets Covid and shows zero symptoms are they going to get tested?  How would they know to get tested?  The only circumstances I can see people getting tested would be on a cruise or if they are traveling back into the US.  I think that the numbers are skewed by the lack of testing and they are missing some cases.

 

We need more cruises and data to see what is really happening here.

 

No we don't.  There have been studies of that followed up on the issue of vaccinated people transmitting the virus.  We don't need to test vaccinated cruise ship passengers to verify other results..

Edited June 12, 2021 by ipeeinthepool

[ipeeinthepool]

1 minute ago, jtwind said:

All of this stuff is really going to help folks who were on the fence about wanting to be early adopters or not.  As you read through this thread, it's easy to figure out whether the announcement of 2 positive cases would ruin your last few days, or if it wouldn't bother you.

 

The only thing that becomes an issue is if you get caught up in contact tracing from a breakthrough case.  It looks like that will cost you a day of your trip.

[kathy49]

1 hour ago, BigAl94 said:

That simply is wrong. Can you still transmit Covid-19 after vaccination? - BBC Future

note to Big A....please note screen name of poster. This debate will still be going in five years...pointless to try to argue....unless it impacts  you close to home many choose to ignore the facts.

[basenji56]

2 hours ago, harkinmr said:

Not really. Just no unvaccinated kids to start. It’s not forever. And Carnival made the choice a couple of days ago.  No vaccine.  No cruise. 

Cruising is a choice.  If I had kids, I would be disturbed with the some of the recent data possibly indicating that, for kids, the vaccine might be more deadly (or debilitating) than the virus.  

 

Science is always changing.  Its all a risk benefit calculation.  I don't think I would risk that for my kids just to go on a cruise when I could go to a beach resort instead.  But, others have the right to make their own decisions.

 

 

[cangelmd]

10 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

No we don't.  There have been studies of that followed up on the issue of vaccinated people transmitting the virus.  We don't need to test vaccinated cruise ship passengers to verify other results..

They are testing passengers because the US government still requires the test for re-entry into the US after international travel. Why, given CDC guidelines for vaccinated persons? No idea. Not a bad way to track variants entering the country - sequence all positives confirmed at the border? Maybe the State Dept or CDC just hasn’t gotten around to changing? Maybe this is the price to pay for no “vaccine passports”

[ipeeinthepool]

5 minutes ago, basenji56 said:

Cruising is a choice.  If I had kids, I would be disturbed with the some of the recent data possibly indicating that, for kids, the vaccine might be more deadly (or debilitating) than the virus.  

 

Science is always changing.  Its all a risk benefit calculation.  I don't think I would risk that for my kids just to go on a cruise when I could go to a beach resort instead.  But, others have the right to make their own decisions.

 

 

 

 I agree.  If I had children that weren't vaccinated or other family members that aren't vaccinated, I would not be taking them on a cruise or any international travel at this time.

[evandbob]

For those who haven't read through all the posts on this thread, back in #385 I cited a link to an on board reporter from the "Point Guy": https://thepointsguy.com/news/celebrity-millennium-cruise-ship-covid/

 

While this is just one person's account of what she experienced on board, it's probably more factual and objective than some of the speculation here.

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, NMTraveller said:

While the CDC lists the probabilities of breakthrough cases as being very rare,  the level of testing for vaccinated people is also very low on land.  If someone gets the vaccine, gets Covid and shows zero symptoms are they going to get tested on land?  How would they know to get tested?  The only circumstances I can see people getting tested would be on a cruise or if they are traveling back into the US.  I think that the numbers are skewed by the lack of testing and they are missing some cases.  

 

We need more cruises and data to see what is really happening here.

 

It is extremely encouraging that the 2 cases were not spread to others.

What you say is true about not testing vaccinated people on land.  But there is no need to do so.  Yes vaccinated people will get tested on a cruise by the current protocols either by the ship or the country/port.  That is of course how these two "cases" were identified.  They would likely be missed if on land as they were asymptomatic.  And so what? They apparently were not infectious and did not spread the virus.  The vaccines worked.  The procedures worked.  All good.  But let us keep the conversation real.  They were positive tests- not COVID cases.     Incredible how many posts on this - yes including mine!

Edited June 12, 2021 by TeeRick