Investment Article about Soft Cruise Ship Demand

[FlaMariner]

 

Here is a portion of an article in the WSJ today.  It's about low demand (and low prices) for Q1 2022.  Covid scare and hassle is keeping folks away....not what the cruise lines wants/needs.   IMO, we need to "get out there" and enjoy the lower rates, deal with the hassles, leave fear at home and help keep them sailing....

 

A prolonged pandemic is sinking near-term pricing for many cruises. The question, for an industry that badly needs the sales after more than a year largely ashore, is whether today’s discounts will weigh on cruise pricing longer term.

All three major cruise lines have recently voiced a focus on retaining ticket prices amid new Covid-19 variants. But as companies have been reintroducing ships back into the waters, they have had shorter timelines to sell near-term tickets. That has led to discounting to tempt people on board in the coming months, especially as variants have proliferated and breakthrough infections in vaccinated consumers occur.

 

[Mary229]

I booked my first cruise next year hoping for reduced capacity so I am good with their pain.  I expect my other 2022 North American cruises to be full.  I think the North American/Caribbean sailings will fill first.  I think many people still fear venturing too far from home and prefer not to be more than a 3 or 4 hour flight from home.

Edited December 6, 2021 by Mary229

[KirkNC]

Only time will tell the long term impact if any the pandemic will have on cruise demand and the industry as a whole.  My best guess is that it will take years to get close to pre-pandemic levels.  The hard core cruiser will go (many are on CC) but those marginal cruisers may never return.  Too many images of Diamond Princess in their heads.   

[FlaMariner]

5 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

hoping for reduced capacity

 

We were on the Rotterdam at 47% capacity....It will spoil you!  Another reason to "get out there" and enjoy this odd time as it will not/cannot continue.

 

Fear needs to subside.

[Babr]

I don’t know that fear is the thing keeping people from cruising, at least not fear of getting seriously ill.

 

The entire experience has changed. While sailing with fewer passengers may have an appeal, there is more anxiety about testing, masking, and the possibility of quarantine.

[SumoCitrus]

For many, myself included, the issue is not fear. Quite the opposite, actually.

 

I won't cruise until they get rid of their fear-driven policies like vaccine requirements, masks, and other hoops. I am not interested in a vacation rife with stress-inducing covid theatre along with ports of varying rules and restrictions. There are other ways to spend our considerable travel and leisure budget. I've let HAL know about this in surveys as I am sure others have.

[FlaMariner]

7 minutes ago, SumoCitrus said:

For many, myself included, the issue is not fear. Quite the opposite, actually.

 

I won't cruise until they get rid of their fear-driven policies like vaccine requirements, masks, and other hoops. I am not interested in a vacation rife with stress-inducing covid theatre along with ports of varying rules and restrictions. There are other ways to spend our considerable travel and leisure budget. I've let HAL know about this in surveys as I am sure others have.

 

Agree....That goes under the "hassle factor" category imposed on us from the Covid fear folks......

Edited December 6, 2021 by FlaMariner

[FredT]

We are one of those who just (And I mean JUST) canceled a spring cruise.  Reasons?   Lack of employees at our business, questions about the pandemic (travel) requirements,  and (significantly) the in ability to get a straight answer from either the cruise line or airline as to travel requirements/cancelation policies should either the political or medical situation change (Our cruise was a med/black sea cruise)   

 

DARN!!!!    (Third cruise we have canceled in the last 18 months)  

 

To make thigs worse, the NEXT cruise we have booked looks iffy as our daughter in law just let us know she is pregnant with our first grandchild..... And the due date is 2 weeks after we get back.   

[Tampa Girl]

52 minutes ago, FlaMariner said:

 

Agree....That goes under the "hassle factor" category imposed on us from the Covid fear folks......

 

"Covid fear folks" - really?  You mean the CDC?  You mean those who have had friends, relatives, neighbors succumb or who are still suffering the after-effects of Covid?  You may enjoy a 47% capacity, which is great, but the rest of the package is, from our standpoint, very unappealing.  My concern is my own bank account, not that of a cruiseline's.  And if these restrictions are still in existence by January, 2024, we will cancel the WC.  I'm not spending that kind of money to wander around the ship, masked, or being disappointed that certain ports may disallow docking.

 

l 

[FlaMariner]

Ouch...

 

Perhaps a better term than "Covid fear folks" would be "Covid concerned people?" or just "Covid"?.....Whatever you call it or whatever it is...it is w/us and it is continuing to disrupt.......

 

Smooth sailing to all........

[HappyInVan]

2 hours ago, FlaMariner said:

 

Here is a portion of an article in the WSJ today.  It's about low demand (and low prices) for Q1 2022.  Covid scare and hassle is keeping folks away....not what the cruise lines wants/needs.   IMO, we need to "get out there" and enjoy the lower rates, deal with the hassles, leave fear at home and help keep them sailing....

 

 

 

Fear is a good thing. It generates caution and keeps us alive. Currently, only 11 states show a positivity rate below 5%. Let me know when that gets to 30/50.

 

BTW, its not the job of pax to keep the cruise industry alive. That's for the relevant governments and the investors.

 

As a pax, its my responsibility to spend my money wisely and enjoy my trips. As a human being, I have to be careful about seeding covid as I travel.

 

Hope this helps.

 

I suppose that I'm going to get banned. But, it had to be said.

[nocl]

3 hours ago, SumoCitrus said:

For many, myself included, the issue is not fear. Quite the opposite, actually.

 

I won't cruise until they get rid of their fear-driven policies like vaccine requirements, masks, and other hoops. I am not interested in a vacation rife with stress-inducing covid theatre along with ports of varying rules and restrictions. There are other ways to spend our considerable travel and leisure budget. I've let HAL know about this in surveys as I am sure others have.

However, there have been several surveys run over the past several months both before and after cruising restart. They are consistent in that all of them show that 60%+ of cruisers (having completed atleast 1 prior cruise) support the vaccination requirements.

 

So while vaccination may prevent some from cruising, not requiring it are likely to result in even more not cruising.

 

The cruiselines are also running their own surveys (I have been contacted by 2 different lines for surveys concerning various protective measures).

 

 

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Only time will tell the long term impact if any the pandemic will have on cruise demand and the industry as a whole.  My best guess is that it will take years to get close to pre-pandemic levels.  The hard core cruiser will go (many are on CC) but those marginal cruisers may never return.  Too many images of Diamond Princess in their heads.   

And another question is will they attract new customers.

[cruisemom42]

3 hours ago, FlaMariner said:

IMO, we need to "get out there" and enjoy the lower rates, deal with the hassles, leave fear at home and help keep them sailing....

 

It's not fear exactly that is keeping me from sailing. It is mainly the ever-shifting requirements and changes. I am not opposed to measures for disease control at all, in fact the opposite (vaccination, testing, distancing, masking where needed, etc.)

 

What bothers me more is the hassle of the travel. All my cruises require a flight and most are not US departures. Since March 2020 I've had 6 ocean cruises, a river cruise and three land trips canceled on me (or moved forward by me) -- all of which require associated cancellations/rebookings of hotel rooms, flights, tours, etc. Not to mention not knowing from day to day whether I'm going to be required to get tested one or two or three days before travel, what kind of test is required, what forms I'll have to fill out, what proof/passes I'll need to show, and so on.

 

I did take a one-week cruise to Alaska over the summer (in that sweet spot before the delta variant became an issue) and we enjoyed the experience very much. But for most cruises I want the assurance of being able to make the ports of call that are on the itinerary and be allowed to tour on my own once we get there.

 

I can sit tight and wait. And if cruising doesn't "come back" (which I highly doubt), then I will just do land travel.

Edited December 6, 2021 by cruisemom42

[nocl]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

And another question is will they attract new customers.

The mass market cruise lines entire business model was built on the ability to attract an ever increasing number of customers to fill the ever increasing ship capacity. Will be interesting to see how they adapt if the cruising public does not return in mass.

 

The interesting thing is that other forms of travel, even with restrictions in various areas, masking, testing, and vaccinations for many international destinations, many locations are showing good recovery on land trips.Not total recovery since by all practical measures the Chinese tourists are not traveling outside of China and pre covid they provided more international travelers than any other country.

 

Some locations, such as Hawaii, exceeded pre covid visitor numbers this summer, even with the restrictions.

 

We have made several land based trips. Currently on the Princess Majestic with 1500 other passengers (42%) of capacity. Even with that low of an occupancy the relatively close confines of cruise ship public spaces is rather apparent compared to land based trip destinations.

Edited December 6, 2021 by nocl

[OlsSalt]

CDC and cruise industry needs to move beyond their zero tolerance agenda. Not achievable.  Covid flu is now as endemic as the noro-virus.  

 

More is now known about discrete risk factors, best practices, emerging on-site use of therapeutics, and growing data accumulation that no longer confirms the early hysteria and administrative over-kill  that introduced the first 100% shut down restrictions. 

 

Diamond Princess is actually a good test case, once you review the data collected in that closed setting incidence and not remain stuck in the lurid media over-reaction version of the event. 

 

Agree, the current hassle factor is too high to even think about booking a cruise. 

[HappyInVan]

42 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

And another question is will they attract new customers.

 

Let's not put the cart before the horse. As the pandemic winds down, we will know the who, when, where and how.

 

Economics 101 introduces the market mechanism of supply and demand. As long as there is demand, there will be supply.

 

The ships will be there. Most of the current operators of those ships will be there. The industry will need to 'reorganize'. The marketplace will be shaped by the benefits-cost packages offered to consumers.

 

IMO, the real problem will be the industry's ability to crew the ships. The longer the pandemic drags out, more crew members will move on or retire. The harder it is to restart the industry.

 

Therefore, it is necessary to keep a proportion of the fleet employed. But, we have to be realistic. Loose safety protocols = Mass outbreaks, which results in bad PR. That defeats the industry's marketing and low low prices.

 

Fortunately, that's not my problem. I'm not management. I have travel alternatives. 😌

Edited December 6, 2021 by HappyInVan

[iancal]

We are not considering a cruise, let alone shopping for a future cruise at this point.  Various reasons for that.  Absolutely no idea what the current prices, short or long term, are like.  Perhaps we are part of the group that may be keeping near term cruise pricing very competitve.

 

We are considering several land trip options.  It is challenging because of the ever changing regs.  We thought we had a winter snowbird trip scoped out.  Now we are wondering what the implications of 'O' will be on entry to another country and re-entry coming home.  Plus any other limitations could be sprung on us unsuspecting travelers during those travels.

 

One thing we are definitely not doing is booking anything non refundable in advance.  If we travel, our air will be booked within a few days of departure.  We may pay a higher fare but that is not our primary concern. 

Edited December 6, 2021 by iancal

[JeffElizabeth]

4 hours ago, FlaMariner said:

 

We were on the Rotterdam at 47% capacity....It will spoil you!  Another reason to "get out there" and enjoy this odd time as it will not/cannot continue.

 

Fear needs to subside.

We are ready to start cruising but are concerned half empty ships will mean penny pinching and service cutbacks, but it sounds like you guys loved it. Thanks for reassuring us.

[iancal]

Three things we definitely have no appetite for.

 

The first...paying for a non refundable cruise 60 days in advance given the current covid situation.

 

The second, being 'stuck' with FCC's on any cruise line.

 

The third...no independent excusions-only cruise line excursions.

Edited December 6, 2021 by iancal

[JeffElizabeth]

3 hours ago, Babr said:

I don’t know that fear is the thing keeping people from cruising, at least not fear of getting seriously ill.

 

The entire experience has changed. While sailing with fewer passengers may have an appeal, there is more anxiety about testing, masking, and the possibility of quarantine.

Triple vaxed here but I am more worried about ports and nations being closed to passengers. We are supposed to go to the Mediterranean in March but worried it might just become too many days at sea. 

[KirkNC]

And all these comments is why we have soft demand.  Our local news had a news headline that 17 people on a recent NCL cruise had CV.  At the end of the story they said the were asymptomatic.  What part of the story do you think people will remember?

[FlaMariner]

7 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

And all these comments is why we have soft demand.  Our local news had a news headline that 17 people on a recent NCL cruise had CV.  At the end of the story they said the were asymptomatic.  What part of the story do you think people will remember?

 

Exactly....and you passed by at least 17 people in Walmart and/or the grocery store who would be positive if they were tested.....Why is it news if it was on a cruise ship?  Good grief.....we've got to get real....Covid is here to stay and we have to learn to live with it....Reminds me of the news hyping a tropic storm (winds 40 mph).  So what. 

[Mary229]

10 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

 At the end of the story they said the were asymptomatic.  What part of the story do you think people will remember?

and if they debark and it is determined that the tests were false positives, as has happened frequently, will the media retract?  (as an aside: I noticed another thread where lines are getting rid of the PCR test, the antigen is far more accurate.)

[ski ww]

We have a cruise booked to Europe in July. Hoping the numbers go down before then, if things don't look up by our due date (Apr) we'll cancel that one also (#3)