Does the CDC's recently announced cruise warning impact your decision to cruise?

[Hlitner]

8 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

As far as I can tell, though, cruise lines are not verifying vaccination status. Just making sure everyone who boards has a card that passes a visual test. Whether they are all authentic is anyone's guess. (And mine would be that they are not.)

It is the CDC that adopted the ridiculous standard of using an easily copied/forged paper document.  This did not need to be as there were quite a few better options (all quickly dismissed by the CDC).  So now, our nation must live with this awful standard.  A few States have tried to go off on their own and adopt a more secure digital standard but that is near useless unless it is adopted as a national standard.  With a budget in excess of $8 Billion and more than 10,000 employees we should have expected something better.  Expecting the cruise lines (or anyone else) to verify a CDC card that is truly not worth the paper it is printed on is just not a practical solution.  

 

Hank

[pris993]

On 1/5/2022 at 5:18 PM, Hlitner said:

I worked in the public health industry for over thirty years and always had the utmost respect for both the CDC and FDA.  While I am still pretty comfortable with the FDA, I have lost most confidence in the CDC.  It is not about Republicans or Democrats since my negative feelings about the CDC started under Trump and have continued under Biden.  When several senior CDC folks decided to recently resign (because they had issues with their own agency) there was not much surprise or coverage by the media.  But we are talking about career professionals who walked away because they were disillusioned by their employer.  That is not the norm within the Federal and State bureaucracies where career professionals (such as civil servants) do not easily give up their careers.

 

The CDC Guidance on COVID has become somewhat of a joke with a "if it's Tuesday what is the policy" attitude.  And it is not just about constantly changing guidelines (apparently not always based on science) but also on the agencies move away from providing decent statistics based on real testing.  In the past few weeks we have been told that 72% of US COVID cases were Omicron only to have that revised to less than 25% of cases being Omicron to then hear today that over 90% is Omicron!  So what is it?  Darned if I or anyone else knows and I also must doubt that the CDC knows since they have not done enough sequencing tests to have decent numbers.  They are obviously relying on guessing and interpolation rather than actual testing (this is not the same as the normal COVID PCR/Antigen testing).

 

I am a "statistic nut" having spend enough years in the industry to feel comfortable looking at empirical data and drawing my own conclusions.  These days I find myself looking towards Israel, South Africa and the UK to get information because what is released by my own government is just not reliable.  In over forty years of dealing with health data that has never been the case....until now.

 

Hank

 

Hank

  I have lost confidence in many in higher levels of Federal Service.  My confidence actually started to slide under the Obama Administration.  I retired in l999 after 30 years of service and have become increasingly disappointed in the lack of ethics.  Politics has taken over and it is not a good thing. 

[ontheweb]

8 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

Not a cruise, but there was that person who got caught with a fake card because she misspelled Moderna.  

That would be funny if it was not so possibly tragic.

[cruisemom42]

10 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Expecting the cruise lines (or anyone else) to verify a CDC card that is truly not worth the paper it is printed on is just not a practical solution.  

 

I'm not trying to support the card, just suggesting that anyone who thinks they are sailing on a 100% vaccinated ship is most likely mistaken.

 

Edited to add:  On reflection, though, if CDC had tried to implement an electronic solution in the US, there would have been, no doubt, several million cries about government invading our privacy.

Edited January 7, 2022 by cruisemom42

[KBs mum]

I'm not American, I don't live in, or plan to go to the USA soon. 

I cruise on a line that is Norwegian owned and flagged. 

The CDC has nothing to do with it as far as I am concerned

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

I'm not trying to support the card, just suggesting that anyone who thinks they are sailing on a 100% vaccinated ship is most likely mistaken.

 

Edited to add:  On reflection, though, if CDC had tried to implement an electronic solution in the US, there would have been, no doubt, several million cries about government invading our privacy.

This depends on the cruise line and and itinerary.  Everyone on our 3 cruises (since July) were vaccinated as that was not only a cruise ship requirement but also mandated by several (in one case..all) the ports.

 

There is a reality that exists regarding vaccinations and travel.  For those who are not fully vaccinated  there are a very limited number of places in the world to where they can go.  Mexico is probably the best known country that will currently accept tourists who are not vaccinated.  And the situation is becoming more bleak for the unvaccinated as most countries are actually tightening their entry rules (often mandating boosters).   This is unlikely to change for many years.  I pointed out in another CC post that when we went to Barbados for a simple 2 week cruise and a few days in Sandals we had to show our proof of vaccination before we could board the JetBlue flight at JFK, again when we landed in Barbados, and a third time when we boarded our ship.  In addition we ultimately needed 2 PCR tests and 3 Antigen tests for that relatively short 19 day trip.

 

Those that think these kind of mandates will simply go away or be replaced with some kind of magic proof of natural immunity are kidding themselves.  The Europeans are trying to work with natural immunity (within the EU) but have not been successful in finding an acceptable means of proof for such immunity.  Antibody tests (not supported by the CDC) are not a good indicator as they do not measure immunity that may or may not exist in B and/or T Cells.  For now, a physicians letter of recovery is the only option and this is not going to satisfy most authorities for obvious reasons.  While the proponents of natural immunity have an excellent argument they simply do not have anyway to prove such immunity.

 

Hank

[d9704011]

4 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

While the proponents of natural immunity have an excellent argument they simply do not have anyway to prove such immunity.

What is so 'excellent' about the proposition if there is no way to prove it or is this just something you personally like?

[navybankerteacher]

4 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

What is so 'excellent' about the proposition if there is no way to prove it or is this just something you personally like?

“Natural immunity” is a neat idea - but when it comes to public health there needs to be some practical standard— such as testing before interacting with other people.  

[Markanddonna]

1 hour ago, KBs mum said:

I'm not American, I don't live in, or plan to go to the USA soon. 

I cruise on a line that is Norwegian owned and flagged. 

The CDC has nothing to do with it as far as I am concerned

The CDC does have authority over it if it sails to or from any USA port.

[KBs mum]

12 minutes ago, Markanddonna said:

The CDC does have authority over it if it sails to or from any USA port.

You missed the bit where I said I wasn't going to the USA. 

Yes the CDC has authority over any ship in USA territorial water, but nowhere else unless ship US owned or flagged

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, KBs mum said:

I'm not American, I don't live in, or plan to go to the USA soon. 

I cruise on a line that is Norwegian owned and flagged. 

The CDC has nothing to do with it as far as I am concerned

 

If there are any Americans sailing on the line, their CDC card is what facilitates their international travel to reach your country and likely their ability to obtain any EU (or other country) required pass once there. Are your regulatory authorities checking up on each and every CDC card offered up as evidence of vaccination?

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, d9704011 said:

What is so 'excellent' about the proposition if there is no way to prove it or is this just something you personally like?

I miss your point. We were only citing simple facts without any bias (implied or otherwise).   

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

“Natural immunity” is a neat idea - but when it comes to public health there needs to be some practical standard— such as testing before interacting with other people.  

I think there is some misunderstanding of the term and its true meaning.  Within the scientific/medical community "natural immunity" is simply the immunity acquired as the result of a prior infection or some kind of proven genetic factor.   That being said, from a regulatory point of view the problem is how to prove or ascertain that one has natural immunity.  Those that want the various authorities to accept natural immunity in lieu of vaccinations do not have any reliable method to prove that they have such natural immunity since there is currently no definitive test that will satisfy the various authorities.  Perhaps there will be such a test in the future, but for now it just does not exist.

 

Hank

[KBs mum]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

If there are any Americans sailing on the line, their CDC card is what facilitates their international travel to reach your country and likely their ability to obtain any EU (or other country) required pass once there. Are your regulatory authorities checking up on each and every CDC card offered up as evidence of vaccination?

Confused by this. Why would I think about US domestic documents when deciding to go on a cruise or not? 

Some countries accept CDC cards, some don't. Not my problem

 

[SelectSys]

21 minutes ago, KBs mum said:

Confused by this. Why would I think about US domestic documents when deciding to go on a cruise or not? 

Some countries accept CDC cards, some don't. Not my problem

 

It certainly isn't something controllable by you.  I believe the point that @cruisemom42 is trying to make is that certain US passengers may be using fraudulent credentials as proof of vaccination.   This could effect your decision to cruise from even your home country.   Is the possibility of Americans  presenting fake credentials regarding vaccination status enough to dissuade you from cruising? Perhaps you could make the decision to completely avoid cruises where Americans might be present?  What about other countries?  Are their systems foolproof as well?  Fraud exists in all areas of life.  Is this any different and is the level of vaccination status fraud actually material as it relates to things like cruising?  I don't know and everyone needs to make their own decision.

Edited January 7, 2022 by SelectSys

[Keksie]

Even if someone gets on a ship with a fraudulent vaccination card that does not mean that they are contagious and are putting other people at risk. They are the ones at risk if a vaccinated person who tests negative before boarding but is actually positive and contagious makes them ill.  An unvaccinated person has a much higher chance of becoming seriously ill.  I don't worry about being around unvaccinated people, trusting that being vaccinated I stand a good chance of either having no symptoms or mild ones.

[KBs mum]

13 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

It certainly isn't something controllable by you.  I believe the point that @cruisemom42 is trying to make is that certain US passengers may be using fraudulent credentials as proof of vaccination.   This could effect your decision to cruise from even your home country.   Is the possibility of Americans  presenting fake credentials regarding vaccination status enough to dissuade you from cruising? Perhaps you could make the decision to completely avoid cruises where Americans might be present?  What about other countries?  Are their systems foolproof as well?  Fraud exists in all areas of life.  Is this any different and is the level of vaccination status fraud actually material as it relates to things like cruising?  I don't know and everyone needs to make their own decision.

As vaccination is at best 85-90% effective at preventing symptomatic infection, dropping to 40% after 6 months for me this is secondary to regular testing and social distancing, with masks of good standard if in close quarters indoors. Yes, everyone should be vaccinated and boosted, but I'm not paranoid about it. Vaccination provides good protection against serious illness, so if I do get it it's hopefully just a holiday insurance claim or 10 days off work. I'm more likely to catch it at work as I interact with members of the public, who may not be vaccinated or testing regularly. 

We are avoiding the countries that won't let passengers quarantine on board though, and sticking to short haul in friendly countries

Edited January 7, 2022 by KBs mum

[Hlitner]

7 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

It certainly isn't something controllable by you.  I believe the point that @cruisemom42 is trying to make is that certain US passengers may be using fraudulent credentials as proof of vaccination.   This could effect your decision to cruise from even your home country.   Is the possibility of Americans  presenting fake credentials regarding vaccination status enough to dissuade you from cruising? Perhaps you could make the decision to completely avoid cruises where Americans might be present?  What about other countries?  Are their systems foolproof as well?  Fraud exists in all areas of life.  Is this any different and is the level of vaccination status fraud actually material as it relates to things like cruising?  I don't know and everyone needs to make their own decision.

We should not put Europe on a pedestal when it comes to COVID documentation.  The continent has also had more then its share of problems with counterfeit documents (both digital and paper) and have been slow to adopt a single secure standard.  This has created a situation where some countries (such as France) have adopted their own documentation (which seems to change with the phases of the moon).  There is also the further complication (for we Americans) about what documentation is going to be acceptable as we travel around Europe.  Until now there has been the begrudging acceptance of our CDC cards but that could change at any time.

 

The truth is that the world has wrestled with the documentation issue.  Arguably the WHO should have taken the lead and adopted some kind of International standard (as they had previously done with some other vaccinations such as Yellow Fever).  For most Americans who do not routinely involve themselves with international travel this is a non-issue.  But for those of us who routinely travel and cruise it is just one more hassle that complicates planning.   Even within the USA it can get complicated.  So, for example, in NYC restaurants are used to seeing the accepted New York vaccination QR Code on a phone.  While they will accept the CDC Card (and usually a copy) one can never be completely sure.

 

Hank

 

Hank

[SelectSys]

3 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

We should not put Europe on a pedestal when it comes to COVID documentation.  The continent has also had more then its share of problems with counterfeit documents (both digital and paper) and have been slow to adopt a single secure standard.

I hope you didn't get that impression from my post.  

 

5 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

There is also the further complication (for we Americans) about what documentation is going to be acceptable as we travel around Europe.  Until now there has been the begrudging acceptance of our CDC cards but that could change at any time.

Logistical complexity is why I have avoided international travel so far outside of Mexico.  My first currently planned trip to Europe is in the fall.  If the Omicron wave helps tamp things down generally, things may be much easier to deal with and the whole card issue will fade to some extent.

 

10 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Arguably the WHO should have taken the lead and adopted some kind of International standard (as they had previously done with some other vaccinations such as Yellow Fever)

Aren't these easy to copy and make fraudulent copies of as well?  It seems self preservation and interest insures that the level of fraud in terms of vaccine cards would be always low.

 

18 minutes ago, KBs mum said:

We are avoiding the countries that won't let passengers quarantine on board though, and sticking to short haul in friendly countries

What does that mean?  You are on a cruise and you can stay on board until the end if you get COVID during the cruise rather than dropped off at a port?

 

Friendly in terms of COVID policies that match your preferences?

[KBs mum]

1 minute ago, Hlitner said:

We should not put Europe on a pedestal when it comes to COVID documentation.  The continent has also had more then its share of problems with counterfeit documents (both digital and paper) and have been slow to adopt a single secure standard.  This has created a situation where some countries (such as France) have adopted their own documentation (which seems to change with the phases of the moon).  There is also the further complication (for we Americans) about what documentation is going to be acceptable as we travel around Europe.  Until now there has been the begrudging acceptance of our CDC cards but that could change at any time.

 

 

There are EU vaccine certificates which are international, and simply certify what jabs and when, as individual countries may require boosters at different intervals, or for children of different ages to have jabs, and individual countries domestic covid passes. 

The domestic ones are the ones with different requirements, they are to allow entry into premises where vaccinations and perhaps boosters are required. 

Some countries outside the EU issue QR code certificates and have reciprocal agreements with each other for acceptance. 

I've got a domestic one valid in the UK, and a UK international one that is accepted in the EU, Norway etc. 

The paper printout can be forged, and somebody could try to use somebody else's, however the QR code links the individual back to a central checkable database. Had to provide ID to get onto the system, which is linked to my National Health Service records

[KBs mum]

34 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

 

 

What does that mean?  You are on a cruise and you can stay on board until the end if you get COVID during the cruise rather than dropped off at a port?

 

Friendly in terms of COVID policies that match your preferences?

Yes, some countries require people with positive tests to be offloaded into government allocated quarantine ashore. Some allow quarantine on board. 

 

Friendly as in the usual international diplomatic and co-operation meaning. If Covid intervenes we have a better chance of getting home in a reasonable time frame. 

[kelkel2]

Their recommendations absolutely do not make me want to cancel. We have a cruise booked for next January. We were originally going to this year but we moved it back. Then the whole

family got covid and I realized you can get it doing absolutely normal every day things. I really don’t think being on a cruise enhances those risks.

The cdc also just recommended that healthcare workers can go back to work after 5 days. I literally am working side by side people who still don’t feel good and are symptomatic. I’m sure I’m more at risk there. I’ll take my chances. 

[ilikeanswers]

On 1/8/2022 at 12:39 AM, cruisemom42 said:

Edited to add:  On reflection, though, if CDC had tried to implement an electronic solution in the US, there would have been, no doubt, several million cries about government invading our privacy.

 

Perhaps if vaccine certificates were issued through social media sites people would be less concerned about privacy😂. Add some celebrity influencer support and everyone will want a certificate😝. 

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Perhaps if vaccine certificates were issued through social media sites people would be less concerned about privacy😂. Add some celebrity influencer support and everyone will want a certificate😝. 

You may have something there - suppose Paris Hilton and Kim Kardashian started talking up designer COVID vaccination certificates.

[CPT Trips]

8 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

You may have something there - suppose Paris Hilton and Kim Kardashian started talking up designer COVID vaccination certificates.

Beware of knockoffs from Canal St.