Red Sea troubles

[OlsSalt]

Straights of Mozambique coming out of the Indian Ocean were the roughest seas I have ever encountered. Truly tossed around like being inside a washing machine. On this ship (not HAL) the captain was on his farewell last voyage, but even he left the ship before traveling this passage. 

 

Entire ship took to bed, for the travel on to Cape Town. Bliss when the ship finally stopped in the inner harbor port in Cape Town and all mal-de-mer ceased immediately. I think these waters are infamous, so assume any new route would avoid hugging this coast too much in this area.

 

May be like Drake's Passage to Antarctica that can be Drake's Shake or Drake's Lake.   So many great options in the Indian Ocean - can make up for this major itinerary change.

[Bill B]

1 hour ago, OlsSalt said:

  So many great options in the Indian Ocean - can make up for this major itinerary change.

 

 They could adopt the Singapore to Cape Town itinerary from the 2025 world cruise.

[CruiserBruce]

The other thing would need advance planning is supply for the cruise ships would need to be shipped ahead to different locations.

[HappyInVan]

Why is it important for HAL to announce a revised itinerary ASAP? First, a Cape of Good Hope diversion is going to use a lot more fuel. Second, resupply in Africa is going to be more difficult and expensive...

 

“The Cape of Good Hope route reduces an Asia-Europe trip’s effective capacity by 25%, according to analysts at UBS.”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-maersk-begins-rerouting-via-southern-africa.html

 

Third, HAL needs to do a headcount in order to crunch the numbers. The Cape of Good Hope diversion is the main option. But, are there enough pax to make it viable?

 

Does it make sense for HAL to offer generous terms to cancel the cruise at Singapore? It gets more complicated once pax board in Florida.

 

Or, HAL could hope for the best. Surprise the pax in March with a big announcement! You signed the Terms and Conditions!!

 

[SargassoPirate]

I'm on a WC soon on another line.  The way I look at is it's a long way off to get to the Red Sea.  The situation can change a lot by then.  Plus the ship has to get back to Fort Lauderdale at the end of April for the next sailings, so I'm along for the ride.  

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

On 12/17/2023 at 2:47 PM, ski ww said:

In the paper this morning two major shipping companies Hapag-Lloyd & Maersk have ordered their commercial to temporarily pause transit through the strait. I would think cruise lines will not be far behind. 

I agree.

[islander47]

We are joining the HAL world cruise in Singapore, and are, of course concerned. However, we are along for the ride so will enjoy whatever happens unless it is a cancellation.

[HappyInVan]

Here's the moment of truth...

 

https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-shipping-yemen-rebels-8dffea6229669e2cb3150b5aa14a3d90

 

Will the Iranians put up or shut up...

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/iran-navy-adds-sophisticated-cruise-104810935.html

 

They have attacked shipping off the coast of India, and have threatened...

 

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-threatens-mediterranean-closure-over-095221527.html

 

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

On 12/20/2023 at 6:02 PM, islander47 said:

We are joining the HAL world cruise in Singapore, and are, of course concerned. However, we are along for the ride so will enjoy whatever happens unless it is a cancellation.

That is smart thinking.

[sansterre]

DH and I are on the HAL WC.  One agent recently offered a great price on the first two segments of the HAL world cruise.  At the time I wondered if the reason for not including the third segment was the ongoing war and unknown itinerary.  

Interesting discussion on this thread.

We were looking forward to seeing both Israel and Turkey too.  And it would be nice to get to UAE and Oman, but if rerouted around Africa we are ok with that too.  We saw some interesting ports (Zanzibar, Maputo, Madagascar, to Luderitz and Walvis Bay) on Grand Africa.  And there are some island nations out in the Indian Ocean like the Seychelles.  

However, on this Christmas Day, I am wishing for Peace on Earth.

 

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

Sounds like it is getting better. 

[CNSJ]

I am quite sure that HAL has a plan that avoids the entire Middle East for WC 2024 and those that speculate 2024 will look like the end of the current 2025 WC are probably spot on.  No way HAL will sail a ship through the Red Sea in the next four months, nor will any other cruise line.  Enjoy Cape Town, and perhaps the Cape Verde Islands on the way home. 

 

True the US Navy and our allies can and will protect "shipping" through the Red Sea.  But they may only be able to stop 99% of things fired at ships, and the things fired each way often go off target.  Loss of life on a commercial ship that takes a missile hit will be few (crew size 20-35) compared to a passenger ship with 4,000+  passengers/crew. 

 

Pirates are of minimal concern.  They are in boats and can be fended off with water cannons and small arms.  Risk to people is minimal.  Missiles and drones are harder to stop. 

[Heidi13]

On 12/25/2023 at 1:55 PM, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

Sounds like it is getting better. 

 

I'll suggest that the situation hasn't really improved, as they haven't dealt with the root cause, which is missiles and drones being launched at commercial shipping in international water. All they have done is provide a small multi-national group of warships for protection.

 

Since a ship was recently attacked in Indian Waters, they have thousands of square miles of ocean to protect. It will take a significantly larger task force the provide a reasonable level of protection. Even during the height of the piracy issues in these waters, the naval task force reduced attacks, but didn't eliminate them.

[HappyInVan]

We mustn't underestimate the likelihood or consequences of escalation.

 

Two days ago, ballistic missiles were fired from Yemen. Iran's medium range missiles would cover most of the Red Sea; all the way to Luxor. Without a peace agreement, the region remains hot.

 

The militants on all sides want a showdown. At this time, Iran is playing for time. They're refining uranium of 60% purity at 9kg/month. Apparently, they will need 42kg to make an A bomb.

 

Without a peace agreement, a general conflict will eventually happen.

 

 

 

 

[floridababa]

Peace has always been just temporary. No luck for longtime peace

[OlsSalt]

WSJ  today: Hapag-Lloyd cargo ships still staying away, re-evaluating this decision weekly.

However, Danish Moeller-Maesk plans on re-starting their Red Sea transits as of last Sunday.

 

Cargo ships will be the first trial runs, well before passenger ships. Egypt is losing significant canal income, so regional pressures can apply.

[HappyInVan]

WE need to be realistic. Cruise ships have no place anywhere near where combatants have modern weapons.

 

A warhead is designed to kill a warship. A hit on a cruise ship would be a titanic disaster. The pax are crammed into the superstructure. The ship has a lot of fuel onboard. How well shielded are the fuel tanks? How adequate are the fire suppression systems after an explosion?

 

The Americans have very strong surveillance abilities. Satellites can detect missile launches in Yemen. Air surveillance aircraft have ground radar. But, slow aircraft are very vulnerable to hyper-sonic missiles.

 

This is no longer a one-sided contested against a third world country. Iran is part of a powerful coalition.

 

[Tampa Girl]

On 12/19/2023 at 3:13 PM, Bill B said:

 

 They could adopt the Singapore to Cape Town itinerary from the 2025 world cruise.

But that is a major deletion of ports.  By skipping India, it cuts off not only those ports but also the possibility of visiting the Taj Mahal.  I think Singapore  is the 70th day of a 128-day cruise, nearly one-half  of the world cruise.  The present political situation is a major problem for HAL.  This is not a simple itinerary change and it involves the possible compensation for those who do not wish to complete a substituted itinerary.  It is one thing to lose 4 or 5 ports on a 26-day cruise, and to lose about one-half of the ports on a 128- day cruise.

[Bill B]

1 hour ago, Tampa Girl said:

But that is a major deletion of ports.

 

It would delete ports and add other ports. I agree if they make such a major itinerary change, people should be given the opportunity to cancel with no penalty.

[leerathje]

1 hour ago, Tampa Girl said:

But that is a major deletion of ports.  By skipping India, it cuts off not only those ports but also the possibility of visiting the Taj Mahal.  I think Singapore  is the 70th day of a 128-day cruise, nearly one-half  of the world cruise.  The present political situation is a major problem for HAL.  This is not a simple itinerary change and it involves the possible compensation for those who do not wish to complete a substituted itinerary.  It is one thing to lose 4 or 5 ports on a 26-day cruise, and to lose about one-half of the ports on a 128- day cruise.

 

You know, they would add ports if they had to go around the Cape....It's not like it would all be at sea days....

 

L.

 

[Ipeeinthepools]

We traveled through the canal on the Celebrity Edge at the beginning of November when the attacks on shipping in the area was just beginning.  I have no idea how far in advance it was planned but our transit through the canal and the Red Sea was delayed by about half a day so we could travel through the canal with two other cruise ships and the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier and several support ships.  I know those naval ships were protecting themselves during the transit but I also suspect that they were protecting us and any other ships that might have been in the region.  Perhaps cruise ships that still wish to transit through the region will be grouped together and provided some escort.

 

 

[sambamama]

Obviously customer safety  is of grave concern. And no one likes to lose ports. Having 9days at sea instead of a number of ports or completely changing the whole focus of the cruise is not happy times for a cruiser. Can the company do it? Sure. Does it promote future customers if you don't allow a refund? No, it doesnt. And as a point of clarification, losing 5-6 ports in a 26 day cruise could be half the ports in your cruise depending on your itinerary. On a 20 night San Diego to  Vancouver thru Hawaii where we had 8 port calls, we lost 3. We lost a Hawaii port, we lost our Mexican port, we lost Victoria, we left a Hawaii port much earlier, and we left San Diego 6hours late the first departure, and stayed overnight instead of being at sea. HAL gave us nothing for leaving a day late and losing Victoria. Was I happy with these changes and my compensation? No. But there wasn't much I could do about it. A net wrapped around one of the azipods of the ship, which the captain knew, but never told us until we lost our Mexican port. The net was wrapped around leaving San Diego. 

But cruise companies can't predict a pandemic or a war. They do the best they can. HAL usually does pretty well. Viking not so much. 

[tscoffey]

4 hours ago, Heidi13 said:

Implementing major changes to an itinerary is time consuming and is not a decision that is taken lightly. Even prior to making an itinerary change decision, they must complete a thorough risk assessment for completing the published itinerary. This alone could take from a few days to a couple of weeks, especially if numerous risk mitigations are required.

Were I the head of fleet operations, my team would have gotten called in on October 8th and told to have contingencies for all itineraries in affected areas ready in 2 weeks. 
If they waited until now they are way behind in planning.

[HappyInVan]

4 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

Perhaps cruise ships that still wish to transit through the region will be grouped together and provided some escort.

 

 

 

IMO, that would be a bad idea. And, I doubt that the navies would accept the task of escorting non-essential cargo.

 

It would be possible to have naval vessels protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea along the Yemen coast. However, Iranian ballistic missiles have a range of 1,500 km(?). That's half way to Bombay from the Yemen/Oman border. Ships would be vulnerable as they approached the region.

 

Ditto for ships exiting the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. Like fish in a barrel.

 

Cruise missiles have a more limited range. But, they can incorporate counter-measures to confuse radar or evade intercepting missiles. Hypersonic missiles travel at >5 MACH.

 

https://www.popsci.com/technology/cruise-missile-defense/

 

In any case, you don't want to have a cluster of juicy targets. That invites a barrage of missiles. Possibly, one or more could get through.

 

It is the nature of combat to have a progressive series of improvements to defense and offense. Are you ready for the excitement of travelling through a war zone?

 

 

[Heidi13]

22 minutes ago, tscoffey said:

Were I the head of fleet operations, my team would have gotten called in on October 8th and told to have contingencies for all itineraries in affected areas ready in 2 weeks. 
If they waited until now they are way behind in planning.

 

I assume you are making reference to the initial conflict in Israel, which started in early October. All cruise lines I am aware of implemented revised itineraries on cruises visiting ports in Israel.

 

Since this region has experienced numerous conflicts, which haven't impacted commercial shipping through the Red Sea and Suez, shipping companies/cruise lines had no historical data to expect the current troubles being experienced in the Red Sea. I have sailed through the Red Sea and Suez a couple of times when Israel experienced conflict, with no issues.

 

Therefore, based on my experiences in this region and historical data, I see no need for cruise lines to have started contingency planning for Red Sea transits as early as 8th October. Eastern Meddy cruises, most definitely. However, hindsight is a great tool.

 

Planning entails more than developing a revised itinerary. The initial planning phase is completing a risk assessment, which will entail extensive dialogue with external agencies. If the risk is deemed excessive, a revised itinerary is one of the risk mitigations available. However, they will have others and they all require evaluation, before determining the overall best mitigation option.