Red Sea troubles

[Heidi13]

4 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

We traveled through the canal on the Celebrity Edge at the beginning of November when the attacks on shipping in the area was just beginning.  I have no idea how far in advance it was planned but our transit through the canal and the Red Sea was delayed by about half a day so we could travel through the canal with two other cruise ships and the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier and several support ships.  I know those naval ships were protecting themselves during the transit but I also suspect that they were protecting us and any other ships that might have been in the region.  Perhaps cruise ships that still wish to transit through the region will be grouped together and provided some escort.

 

 

To delay the entire daily convoy for late vessels is most unusual, as ships normally must arrive at least a few hours early. Since you indicated they waited for warships and other cruise ships, those ships were not anchored and waiting for the convoy to start, they sailed straight up and joined the convoy?

 

From memory, Suez has a single N'bd convoy that departs at 06:00 and 2 S'bd convoys. The timing of the N'bd convoy is subject to any issues with the southbound convoy, as they must meet in the lake and the area between the lake and bridge, which has 2 lanes. It is not uncommon for the N'bd convoy to be delayed, as I have experienced up to a 15 hr delay on one of my cruise ship transits.

 

The canal convoys have a pecking order, with warships at the head of the queue, followed by any ships chartered for carrying military cargo, then cruise ships, box boats, etc. Negative on US warships protecting any other ships in the canal, other than being present, they are simply moving from 1 operational area to another. Being in Egyptian waters, security in the canal is the responsibility of Egypt.

 

Cruise ships make reservations in advance, and subject to operational requirements, will transit on the day they reserve. They don't hold cruise ships to make a convoy. Been through Suez a few times and sometimes we had warships at the head of the queue, but most did not.

 

With the number of commercial ships using this region, it is unlikely all Allies combined have sufficient warships available to provide effective convoy protection, especially for a prolonged operation over a huge area, with Iranian missiles having a reported range of up to 1,250 miles.

[OlsSalt]

Never forget getting up at 4am on the former R class Rotterdam as we waited to queue and enter the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean.

 

The winds were hot,  the skies were dark, the port facilities were  brightly lit, the shouts from local crew members carried across the water, while minarets in the background gave the entire scene an exotic and unforgettable look.

 

The port entrance was  filled with many idling ships with strange sounding names, from strange sounding places. The  Rotterdam herself was very quiet, only a dozen of us were up at this hour to witness the very start of our gathering  Suez convoy.

 

Up until the last minute, we did not know if we would be the last ship in the early queue or the first ship in a later queue. But we got included in that early am queue, and watched the sun come up and the ship come back to life as we sailed on into the Red Sea.

[rafinmd]

I don't know if @Rankleu will ever return to this thread but Cunard officials must be really scrambling.  I just looked at the itinerary and QM2 leaves Dubai April 7 and is due in Southampton just 21 days later, April 28.  The only viable alternative to the Suez is around Cape Horn and at 20kt it takes 22 days 6 hours which makes it impossible for a traditional cruise ship.  At 25 kt which I think QM2 can maintain it is 17 days 19 hours nonstop.  I don't think she has that range nonstop but I would think it is possible with 1 refuel/resupply/land leg stop.

 

Given the onboard QM2 experience I would actually enjoy that but that's certainly a big change from the current itinerary.  If I were totally unwilling to risk that there should be sufficient time to cancel now without a huge loss.

 

Roy

[Ipeeinthepools]

5 minutes ago, rafinmd said:

I don't know if @Rankleu will ever return to this thread but Cunard officials must be really scrambling.  I just looked at the itinerary and QM2 leaves Dubai April 7 and is due in Southampton just 21 days later, April 28.  The only viable alternative to the Suez is around Cape Horn and at 20kt it takes 22 days 6 hours which makes it impossible for a traditional cruise ship.  At 25 kt which I think QM2 can maintain it is 17 days 19 hours nonstop.  I don't think she has that range nonstop but I would think it is possible with 1 refuel/resupply/land leg stop.

 

Given the onboard QM2 experience I would actually enjoy that but that's certainly a big change from the current itinerary.  If I were totally unwilling to risk that there should be sufficient time to cancel now without a huge loss.

 

Roy

 

I wish everyone the best and I hope their cruises happen without any changes.  However, I'm on the look-out if they may start making big changes to the itineraries.  They will certainly be unique itineraries and may be offered a huge discount.  If that's the case I may be interested.  

[sunviking90]

58 minutes ago, OlsSalt said:

Never forget getting up at 4am on the former R class Rotterdam as we waited to queue and enter the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean.

 

The winds were hot,  the skies were dark, the port facilities were  brightly lit, the shouts from local crew members carried across the water, while minarets in the background gave the entire scene an exotic and unforgettable look.

 

The port entrance was  filled with many idling ships with strange sounding names, from strange sounding places. The  Rotterdam herself was very quiet, only a dozen of us were up at this hour to witness the very start of our gathering  Suez convoy.

 

Up until the last minute, we did not know if we would be the last ship in the early queue or the first ship in a later queue. But we got included in that early am queue, and watched the sun come up and the ship come back to life as we sailed on into the Red Sea.

Gosh @OlsSalt, in a few short paragraphs you vividly painted a scene that many of us will never experience. Thank you for that.

[PeterPan48]

1 hour ago, OlsSalt said:

Never forget getting up at 4am on the former R class Rotterdam as we waited to queue and enter the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean.

 

The winds were hot,  the skies were dark, the port facilities were  brightly lit, the shouts from local crew members carried across the water, while minarets in the background gave the entire scene an exotic and unforgettable look.

 

The port entrance was  filled with many idling ships with strange sounding names, from strange sounding places. The  Rotterdam herself was very quiet, only a dozen of us were up at this hour to witness the very start of our gathering  Suez convoy.

 

Up until the last minute, we did not know if we would be the last ship in the early queue or the first ship in a later queue. But we got included in that early am queue, and watched the sun come up and the ship come back to life as we sailed on into the Red Sea.

I think you have a literary career either ahead of you or behind you. Beautifully written. 👍

[OlsSalt]

15 minutes ago, PeterPan48 said:

I think you have a literary career either ahead of you or behind you. Beautifully written. 👍

 

Thank you. I was just reliving it when I wrote this. The words came tumbling out. It suddenly felt so immediate to me. I appreciate having this memory triggered again.

 

 It was from the HAL Grand Indonesia Cruise - Southhampton to Singapore - with two weeks around Indonesia - watching crew members eagerly greet waving families in port after port. Everything was special on that cruise. We ❤️ Indonesia cruise. 

 

So many good HAL memories tucked away, thank goodness they are in my long-term memory, so they still get recalled as if they were in the present.  Just don't ask me what I had for breakfast yesterday. 🙈

[PeterPan48]

23 minutes ago, OlsSalt said:

 

Thank you. I was just reliving it when I wrote this. The words came tumbling out. It suddenly felt so immediate to me. I appreciate having this memory triggered again.

 

 It was from the HAL Grand Indonesia Cruise - Southhampton to Singapore - with two weeks around Indonesia - watching crew members eagerly greet waving families in port after port. Everything was special on that cruise. We ❤️ Indonesia cruise. 

 

So many good HAL memories tucked away, thank goodness they are in my long-term memory, so they still get recalled as if they were in the present.  Just don't ask me what I had for breakfast yesterday. 🙈

We will be embarking on the Viking Sky on 1/6 in LA on a world journey. Spending time in Indonesia. Don’t know if the Suez Canal is in our future given the state of the world. Hoping for the best whatever that may be. 👍

[Maria63]

DH & I went through the Suez the first week of this December on Costa Toscana and did not notice any unusual security arrangements. Later on, some 2 weeks ago, we witnessed NCL Dawn being grandly welcomed into Doha, Qatar, with water cannon salutations. We are currently in Dubai and tourism is in full swing, though there appears to be significantly fewer American or Western European visitors than before.

[OlsSalt]

Operation Prosperity Guardian getting ready to escort a Maesrk cargo ship through the canal. 

[HappyInVan]

Some damage to container ship....

 

"The U.S. military said Sunday it shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired toward a container ship by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. Hours later, four boats tried to attack the same ship, but U.S. forces opened fire, killing several of the armed crews, the U.S. Central Command said. No one was injured on the ship.

The Singapore-flagged MAERSK HANZGHOU reported they had already been hit by a missile Saturday night while transiting the Southern Red Sea and requested assistance, CENTCOM said in a statement. The USS GRAVELY and USS LABOON responded to the call for help, and the Denmark-owned vessel was reportedly seaworthy and no injuries were noted, the statement added.."

 

.https://ca.yahoo.com/news/us-forces-shoot-down-ballistic-100000090.html

 

 

[OlsSalt]

Another link about this area now heating up: Houthi militants killed in Prosperity Guardian action. https://dailycaller.com/2023/12/31/us-troops-kill-houthi-militants-red-sea-firefight-rebels-attempt-board-commercial-ship/

[The-Inside-Cabin]

I don't think many Houthi boats will be left in a few weeks.   

 

 

[The-Inside-Cabin]

On 12/30/2023 at 9:00 AM, HappyInVan said:

 

 

IMO, that would be a bad idea. And, I doubt that the navies would accept the task of escorting non-essential cargo.

 

 

Maintaining Freedom of the seas is why we have a Navy - they would provide escorts if asked. 

 

"The mission of the Navy is to maintain, train, and equip combat-ready naval forces capable of winning wars, deterring aggression, and maintaining freedom of the seas."

 

The bigger question is, would HAL want to proceed to an area where a US Navy escort was required?   I'm not sure the insurance companies would go along with that - escort or not.

[HappyInVan]

IMO, these little skirmishes are just a feint. They're just sacrificing a few pawns in the big game.

 

The Iranians behind the Houthi are smart, tactically capable and strategically brilliant. Should they really want to stop shipping in the Red Sea, they wouldn't use militia armed only with small arms. This is just a warning to the West to restrain Israel.

 

They would use advanced MANPAD missiles. Approaching quickly in their small boats, they could fire incendiary missiles into tankers. How do you put out a flash fire in the fuel compartments?

 

Using advanced SAM fired in series to fend off helicopters. The helo would not be able to approach close enough to use their MG and rockets. Have to fire missiles at 5km distance at small fast boats zigging and zagging.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K34_Strela-3

 

The real danger to shipping is in the Suez Canal (190km long). Large ships sailing slowly in line along a narrow waterway. Fully exposed in the desert terrain. A two-man team could pop out of a box truck, fire a missile at a ship from 2km distance. Impossible to miss. Then, drive off in 60 seconds.

 

All they need to do is to ground or sink a big ship at each end; trapping all the ships in the canal. Sitting ducks to be dispatched at leisure.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closure_of_the_Suez_Canal_(1967–1975)

 

The question is whether the Iranians and their Russian allies are willing to risk WW3? Do the Iranians have nukes?

 

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by HappyInVan

[chengkp75]

7 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

How do you put out a flash fire in the fuel compartments?

Bunker fuel is notoriously difficult to ignite or keep burning.

 

8 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

All they need to do is to ground or sink a big ship at each end; trapping all the ships in the canal. Sitting ducks to be dispatched at leisure.

The question is whether or not they want to  tick off Egypt by removing their main source of national income.  Egypt maintains a military zone along both sides of the canal.

[HappyInVan]

16 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Bunker fuel is notoriously difficult to ignite or keep burning.

 

 

What about the petrol and diesel cargo in tankers?

 

As for Egypt, it is not a friend of Iran/Russia. A threat to the Suez might persuade the Egyptians to be friendlier to the Palestinians.

 

Closure of the Suez and the Red Sea (Saudi oil exports) would cripple the world economy. Making Russian fossil fuel more attractive and profitable. There are many opportunities in the end game for Iran, China, Russia and North Korea. The question is how close to the brink they (and the west) are willing to skate?

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by HappyInVan

[CruiserBruce]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

The question is whether or not they want to  tick off Egypt by removing their main source of national income.  Egypt maintains a military zone along both sides of the canal.

This...remember Egypt is an Arab state. Iran and it's agents will not take on Egypt at this point. The Red Sea is a different issue.

[chengkp75]

40 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

What about the petrol and diesel cargo in tankers?

Those tanks are all inerted with low oxygen stack gas to ensure a non-combustible atmosphere.  This has been required on all tankers since 1974.

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Those tanks are all inerted with low oxygen stack gas to ensure a non-combustible atmosphere.  This has been required on all tankers since 1974.

 

Yes, but would it still be inert after an antiship missile hits it?

 

 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/12/18/bp-pauses-oil-cargo-on-red-sea-as-missile-attacks-affect-global-trade

 

 

 

[CruiserBruce]

48 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Yes, but would it still be inert after an antiship missile hits it?

 

 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/12/18/bp-pauses-oil-cargo-on-red-sea-as-missile-attacks-affect-global-trade

 

 

 

You know how oil well fires are extinguished? By exploding barrels full of dynamite over the open well head, briefly removing all oxygen from the immediate area of the fire. So a missle striking a tank where the atmosphere was inert would take time to gather enough oxygen to allow combustion.  I am not sure of the situation in the video, and not welling to allow their required cookies. But the fire appears to be on the outside,  burning on the sea from the spilled materials. Not necessarily actually on/in the ship. The context of the still shot is far from clear.

[aliaschief]

We are getting close  to embark for a 156 day World Voyage on another cruise line. We have no clue what will take place on our voyage through Red Sea and Suez Canal itineraries . One thing we do know. We are going to have a great cruise experience.

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, CruiserBruce said:

You know how oil well fires are extinguished? By exploding barrels full of dynamite over the open well head, briefly removing all oxygen from the immediate area of the fire. So a missle striking a tank where the atmosphere was inert would take time to gather enough oxygen to allow combustion. 

 

Interesting.

 

How about this! I use a laser guided system to punch a hole in the hull with a HE warhead. Wait for the inert gas to dissipate and the fuel to oxygenate. Then, follow up with an incendiary round to get the party going.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon's_breath_(ammunition)

 

Then, you can save the ship by blowing holes in the hull to vent the burning fuel? 

 

BTW, back on topic. No, I wouldn't sail in a cruise ship into a war zone.

[Dutchman48]

For what it is worth, Silver Seas Silver Moon is going south bound in the Canal today. So, I assume that someone at RCL's HQ feels the risk for cruise ships is within their tolerance limits.

 

Cruise Ship Tracker, Itineraries, Schedules, Deck Plans - CruiseMapper

[Tampa Girl]

31 minutes ago, Dutchman48 said:

For what it is worth, Silver Seas Silver Moon is going south bound in the Canal today. So, I assume that someone at RCL's HQ feels the risk for cruise ships is within their tolerance limits.

 

Cruise Ship Tracker, Itineraries, Schedules, Deck Plans - CruiseMapper

  I don't see the Silver Moon on that tracker, however.  When I did a search for that ship, the message was "No such ship", or words to that effect.