CCL stock dips below 40

[VentureMan_2000]

12 hours ago, 13cheermom said:

Would like to purchase another 100 in the $20 range to offset some of the higher purchases, but we are in it for the long-haul and OBC.

 

$20 range ?  😲

Just bought  100 shares this morning for $31.50 -- Analysts have CCL as a 'HOLD'.

 

I think that it will trade sideways to up from here as it's way oversold -- down 40%. 

[ypcat]

Do you get OBC for each 100 shares, or is it only on the first 100. Just curious why several people have mentioned buying more in 100 share batches.

[Joe817]

2 minutes ago, ypcat said:

Do you get OBC for each 100 shares, or is it only on the first 100. Just curious why several people have mentioned buying more in 100 share batches.

Only on the first 100. They buy in batches because they believe it's a good time to buy for a well performing stock.

[xDisconnections]

5 minutes ago, ypcat said:

Do you get OBC for each 100 shares, or is it only on the first 100. Just curious why several people have mentioned buying more in 100 share batches.

Only for the first set of 100. Some might purchase more if they want to invest in the company and find a value versus a novelty benefit. We have 200 shares as we usually reserve two staterooms so 100 each are in the names of the normal occupants.

 

For most people, especially those who only travel once a year, the shareholder benefit isn't used enough to really make a difference. That all depends on your actual travel patterns as we've already made back our intiial investment in onboard credit. We purchased in 2011.

Edited March 2, 2020 by xDisconnections

[n6uqqq]

2 hours ago, VentureMan_2000 said:

 

$20 range ?  😲

Just bought  100 shares this morning for $31.50 -- Analysts have CCL as a 'HOLD'.

 

I think that it will trade sideways to up from here as it's way oversold -- down 40%. 

Depends on how much panic sets in. Here at our Costco in CA lines went from register to back of the store for water, TP, and paper towels and antibacterials clorox etc. I can imagine quite a few won't want to cruise for a while. The media are doing all they can to get people scared.

Edited March 2, 2020 by n6uqqq

[VentureMan_2000]

1 hour ago, ypcat said:

 Just curious why several people have mentioned buying more in 100 share batches.

 

For the Shareholder OBC, you need 100 shares.  There are a couple strategy folks may be using by purchases multiple lots of 100 shares.

1.  Folks are buying at the lower price with plans to sell the shares they purchased at a higher price, when the stock eventually recovers.  This would leave them 100 shares they purchased -- as in my case, at $31.50 a share.

2. Folks may be cost dollar averaging to lower their total cost basis of shares.  For instance, folks may have purchased 100 shares a month ago at $51.50, so they may have a long wait before the stock hits that price again to break even.  But if they purchased another 100 shares at $31.50, then their break even point ( cost basis ) is now ($51.50 + $31.50) / 2 =  $41.50.

[ninjacat123]

4 minutes ago, VentureMan_2000 said:

For the Shareholder OBC, you need 100 shares.  There are a couple strategy folks may be using by purchases multiple lots of 100 shares.

1.  Folks are buying at the lower price with plans to sell the shares they purchased at a higher price, when the stock eventually recovers.  This would leave them 100 shares they purchased -- as in my case, at $31.50 a share.

2. Folks may be cost dollar averaging to lower their total cost basis of shares.  For instance, folks may have purchased 100 shares a month ago at $51.50, so they may have a long wait before the stock hits that price again to break even.  But if they purchased another 100 shares at $31.50, then their break even point ( cost basis ) is now ($51.50 + $31.50) / 2 =  $41.50.

Thx for explaining that!

[13cheermom]

5 minutes ago, VentureMan_2000 said:

For the Shareholder OBC, you need 100 shares.  There are a couple strategy folks may be using by purchases multiple lots of 100 shares.

1.  Folks are buying at the lower price with plans to sell the shares they purchased at a higher price, when the stock eventually recovers.  This would leave them 100 shares they purchased -- as in my case, at $31.50 a share.

2. Folks may be cost dollar averaging to lower their total cost basis of shares.  For instance, folks may have purchased 100 shares a month ago at $51.50, so they may have a long wait before the stock hits that price again to break even.  But if they purchased another 100 shares at $31.50, then their break even point ( cost basis ) is now ($51.50 + $31.50) / 2 =  $41.50.

 

Very good analysis there, yes exactly for our situation.  Also some might want to take their loss for a tax right-off when needed, lol.  But end game is to maintain at least 100 shares for OBC, especially for those longer cruises we cashed in on $500 last year which was nice.  It's kind of interesting to watch and follow this and play around with it a little.  Now my 401K, not so much fun right now, guess I will put off retiring a lil bit longer.

[ninjacat123]

3 hours ago, VentureMan_2000 said:

 

$20 range ?  😲

Just bought  100 shares this morning for $31.50 -- Analysts have CCL as a 'HOLD'.

 

I think that it will trade sideways to up from here as it's way oversold -- down 40%. 

What does this mean? Trade sideways? Way oversold? Thanks!!

[VentureMan_2000]

Trade sideways means the stock price will gyrate up or down a dollar or two from day to day.  Using my purchase price of $31.50, I would expect the stock price to trade (near term) in the range of $31 to $33, as it did today. 

Way oversold means that the stock price went down way past what is a reasonable valuation.  This because folks have not yet determined the monetary risk of owning CCL, so they just dump it until they gain an understanding of the potential impact of the coronavirus on cruisers.  They will jump back in once they have a better understanding, and then the price of CCL should rise because of that.

 

Myself, I'm not concerned because I plan to own my 100 shares for at least the next 5 years -- way past this current scare.  

 

Eventually -- my prediction (a SWAG for those with a military background) -- is that the price will move back up to where it was before crashing, in the low $40's.  Carnival Corp will report earnings on 03/24/2020.  Usually they provide near-term earnings guidance for the next quarter or two.  I'm sure they will talk about the impact of the corona virus on their business.  If their guidance is positive, expect a bump in share price.   

[ninjacat123]

Thank you for the detailed explanation! I purchased 100 shares and I'm holding on for at least five years as well.  I've been watching CCL for a couple years and this is as low as I have seen it. We love to cruise, Carnival does a great job for a reasonable price which makes this a win-win for me.

I'm sure I'll have more stock market questions as this continues.  I appreciate the info on this board and I look forward to learning more😀

[Farts]

trump is reportedly going to meet with the ceos of cruise ships and airlines tomorrow. 

 

I wonder what will they talk about. There may be big movement tomorrow. Question is, will it be positive or negative. 

 

Anyone hear about this?

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

Now we have 400 shares. Just purchased another today below $30. Missed it I think friday when it was below $29. Now we will just sit on it. It will go back up as soon as this virus panic ends. People will just forget about it. Same as they do now about the flu. In the US alone, over 135 people a day on the average die from the flu. World wide, on the average 300 thousand die every year. So many do not even bother to get the yearly flu shot. Personally, I am positive the stocks will go back up. Same as they took a drastic hit when the market crashed several years ago. I got Royal and Carnival when they hit bottom. Stupid me. I sold it a few years later.

[coevan]

IMHO, this is not a good time to invest, until they get a handle on this virus

[Farts]

Pence is reportedly going to meet with the cruise industry representatives this Saturday. 

 

Rumors are saying that Trump wants to shut down all ports. If so, it would plummet the stock prices even more. 

[Hoosierpop]

6 minutes ago, Farts said:

Pence is reportedly going to meet with the cruise industry representatives this Saturday. 

 

Rumors are saying that Trump wants to shut down all ports. If so, it would plummet the stock prices even more. 

Seems like a weird rumor given Trump has been portraying this as low risk. That would be seen as a panic move. And it would be. So if the stock drops ahead of that meeting because of rumors, I’m buying more.

[Floriduh]

8 hours ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

Now we have 400 shares. Just purchased another today below $30. Missed it I think friday when it was below $29. Now we will just sit on it. It will go back up as soon as this virus panic ends. People will just forget about it. Same as they do now about the flu. In the US alone, over 135 people a day on the average die from the flu. World wide, on the average 300 thousand die every year. So many do not even bother to get the yearly flu shot. Personally, I am positive the stocks will go back up. Same as they took a drastic hit when the market crashed several years ago. I got Royal and Carnival when they hit bottom. Stupid me. I sold it a few years later.

Below 30 or 29? When was that.

Day's Range	31.16 - 33.34
52 Week Range	30.19 - 57.69

[coevan]

want 29, wait a day

[Farts]

The stock closed in the black for the first time in a few days.

 

However, Grand princess is quarantined. A passenger died from covid 19. Let's see what happens to the stock price in the am.

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, Farts said:

The stock closed in the black for the first time in a few days.

 

However, Grand princess is quarantined. A passenger died from covid 19. Let's see what happens to the stock price in the am.

After a large recovery yesterday, it looks like the entire market is set for a fall today, not just Carnival.

[tandemcruzr]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

After a large recovery yesterday, it looks like the entire market is set for a fall today, not just Carnival.

Under $30 right now.

[Hoosierpop]

A few years from now, those of us buying now are either going to be geniuses, or lying to people about the time we bought into a dying company.....

Edited March 5, 2020 by Hoosierpop

[13cheermom]

6 minutes ago, Hoosierpop said:

A few years from now, those of us buying now are either going to be geniuses, or lying to people about the time we bought into a dying company.....

 

Like I posted awhile back, we were waiting for it to fall in the 20's, guess we made it, lol.  But seriously, I don't think it's the end of the cruise industry, just a hiccup that will soon past once they get this all figured out.  Just wouldn't want to invest my 401K in it.😱

[Hoosierpop]

Just now, 13cheermom said:

 

Like I posted awhile back, we were waiting for it to fall in the 20's, guess we made it, lol.  But seriously, I don't think it's the end of the cruise industry, just a hiccup that will soon past once they get this all figured out.  Just wouldn't want to invest my 401K in it.😱

Yep. I bought a 100 shares a week ago to get the OBC. But thinking of buying more. No way I’m investing any retirement though. Unless I retire on a ship.....

[mz-s]

1 hour ago, Hoosierpop said:

A few years from now, those of us buying now are either going to be geniuses, or lying to people about the time we bought into a dying company.....

 

CCL will bounce back, I don't see how this scare would spell their end. The recession didn't kill them, coronavirus won't either unless it becomes a much bigger deal and millions die - in which case, CCL going belly up would probably be the least of our worries.