RCL Stock

[marci22]

On 8/11/2023 at 6:33 AM, Suzieanna said:

Don't ever think a company is too big to fail.   

This one.

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, marci22 said:

This one.

I’m sure that Enron, Lehman Brothers, Chrysler, the 52% of the 2020 Fortune 500, and many more felt the same way.

[nimbex1970]

Dunno, looking at selling.  We bought at $32 and it's $97.  Only the 100 shares. I thinks it's going to sit stagnant and with interest rates rising, might be better in CD's.  Anyone thinking along this line?

[firefly333]

10 minutes ago, nimbex1970 said:

Dunno, looking at selling.  We bought at $32 and it's $97.  Only the 100 shares. I thinks it's going to sit stagnant and with interest rates rising, might be better in CD's.  Anyone thinking along this line?

I posted above I sold at 104.25. Called my sell. It's in a channel right now 96ish to 101ish. Near the bottom of the trading channel right now, I suspect you can get a little more with the right timing. Closer around 100. It's on a list of trades I've seen posted. It's in play. The list is titled stocks that doubled this year, as if that makes it a good trade. 

 

I'm hoping for a  break below 96 to buy my shares back but before next earnings. I do expect another pop next earnings. 96ish has been the lowest since last earnings, I'm watching for a break lower, so far no. Friday when traders are jumping out is a better time to buy before close than to sell imo. I think by monday you can get more than 97. Today the market, and tech tired. 

[firefly333]

21 minutes ago, nimbex1970 said:

Dunno, looking at selling.  We bought at $32 and it's $97.  Only the 100 shares. I thinks it's going to sit stagnant and with interest rates rising, might be better in CD's.  Anyone thinking along this line?

I'm in stocks but managing my parents who have a lot of tax free funds and treasuries. I rolled over 6 month treasuries over 5.5% just last friday, now below 5.5%. Traders are betting no more rate hikes. I think wages are sticky and 2% isnt that in the bag. Otherwise I'd have done 1 year. Talking heads say they know there will be rate drops early in 2024, and I dont think they are correct. Market has said they dont believe Powell for a year, and been wrong. This just tracks treasuries .. but you can see rates are dropping right now, not going up. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

 

There is another thought of buying stocks with over 5% dividends. I was looking at oil stocks but the dividend percentage is dropping today as oil goes up,  but there are several I'm interested in. Oil been in the 78 to 82 range and just broke up out of range. 

[nimbex1970]

4 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I'm in stocks but managing my parents who have a lot of tax free funds and treasuries. I rolled over 6 month treasuries over 5.5% just last friday, now below 5.5%. Traders are betting no more rate hikes. I think wages are sticky and 2% isnt that in the bag. Otherwise I'd have done 1 year. Talking heads say they know there will be rate drops early in 2024, and I dont think they are correct. Market has said they dont believe Powell for a year, and been wrong. This just tracks treasuries .. but you can see rates are dropping right now, not going up. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

 

There is another thought of buying stocks with over 5% dividends. I was looking at oil stocks but the dividend percentage is dropping today as oil goes up,  but there are several I'm interested in. Oil been in the 78 to 82 range and just broke up out of range. 

I dumped my oil about 4 months ago, eeek missed the surge! Still made a nice profit as they were in the dumps 2020 when purchased.  I'm worried about the rates as well, but I'm seeing RCCL specifically being a net ratio of stagnant and looking to move it off. Obviously not buying back into oil, lol. 

 

We aren't paying off the home at 2.65, we are buying CD's each pay instead, at 5.1 through Ally bank, but I'm thinking the cruise stocks will be stagnant for at least a year, where I can better my investment.

 

[nimbex1970]

traders at 5.5?  I'm 53, and fine with my 5.1, need that safety net at this age, what are you doing with cruise stocks.. I'm unsure with 5.5, wanna share  more info?

[firefly333]

5 minutes ago, nimbex1970 said:

traders at 5.5?  I'm 53, and fine with my 5.1, need that safety net at this age, what are you doing with cruise stocks.. I'm unsure with 5.5, wanna share  more info?

Confused what you are asking. I posted a link to treasuries. The 6  month a week ago well over 5.5 today a pinch below 5.5% .. the link is to current treasuries.

 

I personally love oil stocks and their dividends. Dvn popping today. 6.8% dividend. Was at 8% but stock is moving today so dividend percentage is lower. CNBC someone said this morning their bet is oil stays over $80 for the rest of 2023. There are others paying over 5% dividends. 

 

Berkshire loves oxy. I'm not tech enough to understand the tech side of cleaning oil or whatever is the big draw, I dont own oxy. I have a lot of dividend stocks,  that's what pays for my cruises. I have to be very good or I cant support myself. Been doing stocks 50 years. No retirement coming in, havent worked in over 20 years and at most half of the time before that. I mostly have flipped houses and done stock trading. I love dividends, though I know I'm missing out on the fast track. 

[Kruisn'Kay]

On 9/1/2023 at 4:47 AM, firefly333 said:

Here is the form, but many say just email works too. 

 

https://rcg.questionpro.com/a/TakeSurvey?tt=286lFZCRCioECHrPeIW9eQ%3D%3D

 

 

Is this a new online form? Last time I printed then scanned their form. 

[Ocean Boy]

25 minutes ago, Kruisn'Kay said:

Is this a new online form? Last time I printed then scanned their form. 

This method has been available for awhile. I am pretty sure that you can still do it as you have in the past.

[firefly333]

Rcl finally broke below its trading channel. CNBC is talking about when travel ends, and talking down carnival. Rcl kinda will follow ccl. 

 

94ish right now. I had been looking for a entry in the 90 to 93 range .. finally close. And I've watched since earnings. Chart broke this morning. The traders trading this dont know rcl from a hole in the head, they just watch the charts. This is a big break lower chart wise. We will see where it is closer to earnings as I will be back in before earnings. New range going to be established.  

 

Not sure what jim cramer meant about no new ships after these .. as regarding ccl earnings. I'm still out but looking now to re enter. .. just calling it so later someone doesnt say easy to call later. I've called all my rcl trades.

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Rcl finally broke below its trading channel. CNBC is talking about when travel ends, and talking down carnival. Rcl kinda will follow ccl. 

 

94ish right now. I had been looking for a entry in the 90 to 93 range .. finally close. And I've watched since earnings. Chart broke this morning. The traders trading this dont know rcl from a hole in the head, they just watch the charts. This is a big break lower chart wise. We will see where it is closer to earnings as I will be back in before earnings. New range going to be established.  

 

Not sure what jim cramer meant about no new ships after these .. as regarding ccl earnings. I'm still out but looking now to re enter. .. just calling it so later someone doesnt say easy to call later. I've called all my rcl trades.

Two months ago oil was below $70 now $87.  Last quarter RCL reported they were  55% hedged for remainder of this year and 25% next year.  They estimated full year impact of a  10% rise in fuel is -$111MM.  So at current price that's vulnerability of -$222MM.  Another impact of rising fuel will be higher airfares which travelers must take into consideration when deciding whether to book a cruise.

[firefly333]

52 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Two months ago oil was below $70 now $87.  Last quarter RCL reported they were  55% hedged for remainder of this year and 25% next year.  They estimated full year impact of a  10% rise in fuel is -$111MM.  So at current price that's vulnerability of -$222MM.  Another impact of rising fuel will be higher airfares which travelers must take into consideration when deciding whether to book a cruise.

I saw end of last week oil broke out. I watched to confirm and at open added more DVN. A oil with a 6% dividend. Yesterday Charles Payne guest mentioned oil is at lowest inventories in 10 years. I sat up and said buying more oil at open. The inventory level is what made me say buy NOW, has to kick in. I'll hold until probably next January. Oil always does well in the winter for me.

 

CNBC guest says oil will stay above 80 for the rest of the year. Saudi confirmed cuts for the rest of the year. Oil is my heaviest position, because of dividends. The low inventory imo is the most important indication to watch. Diesel is shorter supply especially. 

 

I was thinking it will hurt ccl especially as they do not hedge, but not helpful to rcl. Higher rates for longer fed mantra is still not fully priced in either imo. 

[yogimax]

12 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Yesterday Charles Payne guest mentioned oil is at lowest inventories in 10 years.

 

 

Not quite... 'The latest EIA numbers show that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 10.58MMbbls over the last week, which leaves total crude oil inventories at 422.94MMbbls – the lowest level since December 2022."

[Baron Barracuda]

4 hours ago, yogimax said:

Not quite... 'The latest EIA numbers show that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 10.58MMbbls over the last week, which leaves total crude oil inventories at 422.94MMbbls – the lowest level since December 2022."

Also in a little over two years the SPR has been reduced from roughly 650mm barrels to 350 million.  At some point that will have to be replenished likely pushing prices higher.

[firefly333]

On 9/5/2023 at 12:22 PM, yogimax said:

Not quite... 'The latest EIA numbers show that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 10.58MMbbls over the last week, which leaves total crude oil inventories at 422.94MMbbls – the lowest level since December 2022."

CNBC the hosts, cramer and that other guy just made a off hand comment inventories at 40 year low. 

 

The price is at your date, not inventories. These hosts cant all be wrong. Doesnt matter just another host said it too, cnbc. Not the best for cruiselines, higher oil. And this has been a up week for oil, it broke out chart wise. Lots of higher highs, mortgage rate, treasuries, take your pick. I'm watching numbers. 

 

RCL bounced right back from mid 94s, very strong. It had dropped on ccl comments, then came right back. Zacks is predicting great earnings for rcl. I'm very bullish. All in before next earnings. 

[Biker19]

"

Royal Caribbean Group today reported third quarter Earnings per Share of $3.65 and Adjusted EPS of $3.85 for the third quarter of 2023.

 

These results were better than the company’s guidance due to stronger close-in demand and further strength in onboard revenue, the company said in a press release.

The company is also increasing its full year 2023 Adjusted EPS guidance to $6.58 – $6.63, driven by strong demand and continued strength in onboard revenue.

 

“The strength of our brands and the acceleration of consumer spending on experiences have propelled us towards another outstanding quarter and a robust 2023,” said Jason Liberty, president and CEO, Royal Caribbean Group. “Looking ahead, we see accelerating demand as we build the business for 2024. Our booked load factors are higher than all prior years and at higher rates, further supporting our trajectory towards the Trifecta goals,”  added Liberty.  “The combination of our leading brands, the best people, and the most innovative fleet and destinations, positions us exceptionally well to deliver on a lifetime of vacation experiences while creating long-term shareholder value.”

 

Third Quarter 2023 Results:

• Gross Margin Yields increased 19.1% As-Reported, and Net Yields increased 16.7% in Constant-Currency (16.9% As-Reported), both compared to the third quarter of 2019.
• Gross Cruise Costs per Available Passenger Cruise Day (“APCD”) increased 14.4% As-Reported, and Net Cruise Costs (“NCC”), excluding Fuel, per APCD increased 10.3% in Constant-Currency (10.1% As-Reported), both compared to the third quarter of 2019.
• Total revenues were $4.2 billion, Net Income was $1.0 billion or $3.65 per share, Adjusted Net Income was $1.1 billion or $3.85 per share, Adjusted EBITDA was $1.7 billion.

Full Year 2023 Outlook:

• Net Yields are expected to increase 12.9% to 13.4% in Constant-Currency (12.4% to 12.9% As-Reported), compared to 2019.
• NCC, excluding Fuel, per APCD is expected to be up 7.0% to 7.5% in Constant-Currency (6.5% to 7.0% As-Reported), compared to 2019, and includes approximately 30 basis points impact due primarily to reduced APCDs on cancelled Israel and related sailings.
• Fuel pricing and foreign exchange rates are negatively impacting EPS by $0.18, compared to prior guidance. In addition, impacted sailings related to Israel deployment is expected to impact the year by approximately $0.03.
• Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $6.58 to $6.63 per share.

Third Quarter 2023

The company reported Net Income for the third quarter of $1.0 billion or $3.65 per share compared to Net Income of $33.0 million or $0.13 per share for the same period in the prior year. The company also reported Adjusted Net Income of $1.1 billion or $3.85 per share for the third quarter compared to Adjusted Net Income of $65.8 million or $0.26 per share for the same period in the prior year.

 

Gross Margin Yields increased 19.1% As-Reported, and Net Yields increased 16.7% in Constant-Currency (16.9% As-Reported) when compared to the third quarter of 2019. Third quarter revenue across North America and Europe itineraries exceeded expectations due to better close-in demand that translated into higher load factors and pricing, as well as continued strength in onboard revenue. Load factor for the third quarter was 110%.

 

Gross Cruise Costs per APCD increased 14.4% As-Reported, compared to 2019. NCC, excluding Fuel, per APCD increased 10.1% As-Reported and 10.3% in Constant-Currency, compared to 2019.   Lower operating expenses, as well as favorable timing, contributed to better-than-expected costs.

 

Revenue Environment and 2024 Outlook

Bookings remained strong throughout the third quarter, significantly exceeding 2019 levels.  Closer-in demand for 2023 sailings exceeded expectations, contributing to higher load factors at higher prices and higher onboard revenue for the third quarter.  Consumer spending onboard, as well as pre-cruise purchases, continue to significantly exceed 2019 levels driven by greater participation at higher prices. As of September 30, 2023, the Group’s customer deposit balance was at $5.0 billion.

 

Demand for 2024 has continued to accelerate, with bookings significantly and consistently outpacing 2019 levels. Booked load factors and rates are higher than all prior years while the booking window has continued to extend.  The market response to the company’s new ships, existing hardware, and the expansion of Perfect Day at CocoCay, and Hideaway Beach, has been excellent and further positions the company for strong yield and earnings growth in 2024.

 

Fourth Quarter 2023

Net Yields are expected to be up 16.2% to 16.7% in Constant-Currency and 15.0% to 15.5% As-Reported, both compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.  Continued strong demand for the company’s vacation experiences and strength in onboard revenue contributes to increased yield expectations for the fourth quarter.

 

NCC, excluding Fuel, per APCD for the quarter are expected to increase 3.9% to 4.4% in Constant-Currency and 3.3% to 3.8% As-Reported, both compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

Fuel pricing and foreign exchange rates are negatively impacting EPS by $0.15, versus previous expectations.  Impacted sailings related to Israel deployment are negatively impacting the quarter by approximately $0.03.

 

Based on current fuel pricing, interest and currency exchange rates and the factors detailed above, the company expects fourth quarter Adjusted EPS to be $1.05 to $1.10 per share.

“The performance of our business continues to accelerate, driven by strong demand and excellent operational execution,” said Naftali Holtz, chief financial officer at Royal Caribbean Group. “Our formula of moderate yield growth, strong cost discipline, and moderate growth of our fleet delivers a strong financial profile and enhanced margins.”

 

Royal Caribbean Reports Q3 Results, Increases Guidance - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

[WeMissSeaView]

The question is, will they pay a dividend or just pay off debt?

[neverbeenhere]

They need to take $ 10 or $15 off the debt total before paying dividends.  So, maybe two more years at this pace.

Edited October 26, 2023 by neverbeenhere

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, neverbeenhere said:

They need to take $ 10 or $15 off the debt total before paying dividends.  So, maybe two more years at this pace.

They paid down $3B in nine months this year, leaving $20B.  Pre-covid ltd was $9B.  If business holds up wouldn't be surprised with dividend in '25. 

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

They paid down $3B in nine months this year, leaving $20B.  Pre-covid ltd was $9B.  If business holds up wouldn't be surprised with dividend in '25. 

Dream on.

[Biker19]

The 10Q report can be found at: Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

 

Interesting to see that the occupancy over the summer quarter was at almost 110%.

[island lady]

44 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The 10Q report can be found at: Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

 

Interesting to see that the occupancy over the summer quarter was at almost 110%.

 

My broker who gave me huge grief for buying RCI stock during Covid, is now enjoying that egg on his face.  😄 

[Biker19]

Royal Caribbean Group presented a buoyant outlook for 2024, when at least $9 EPS is forecast and Israel's industry impact is seen as 'immaterial' though it's too early gauge how demand for Europe cruises may be affected.

 

Demand for 2024 sailings has continued to accelerate, with Royal Caribbean bookings 'significantly and consistently' outpacing 2019 levels. Booked load factors and rates are higher than all prior years while the booking window has continued to extend.

Group President/CEO Jason Liberty on Thursday told analysts earnings per share are expected to be 'at least' $9 next year, which is above Wall Street's $8.41 consensus estimate and today's elevated 2023 guidance range of $6.58 to $6.63.

 

That higher 2023 guidance includes the negative impact of Israel, higher fuel costs and currency.

Israel 'pretty immaterial' to the industry

About 1.5% of Royal Caribbean's fourth quarter capacity was scheduled to visit Israel but those sailings were quickly adjusted, and Liberty thanked his teams shipboard and shoreside for enabling Rhapsody of the Seas to evacuate Americans from Israel, at no cost to the US government.

 

In 2024, Israel represents just a 1.5% sliver of the Group's capacity. Industry-wide that number is in the low single digits, according to Liberty, who said some competitors may have a little more capacity there but it is 'pretty immaterial' for the broader business.

 

Impact on demand for Europe?

It's too early to know if Israel will impact demand for travel to Europe, Liberty said, with the typical six- to eight-month booking window for European cruises just starting now.

'It's not something we're seeing today. We don't know how long this war/conflict is going to go on, which could very much inform where the consumer wants to go next year,' Liberty told analysts during the Q3 earnings call.

 

What's important, he added, is that Royal Caribbean is getting very "sticky" consumers, who want to sail with its brands no matter where they go. They're also racking up many more on-board purchases in advance of their cruise.

Typically the company's Europe business is sourced about half from North America and half from Europe.

 

Caribbean capacity spike

In any case, the bulk of Royal Caribbean's 2024 capacity is in North America, with Caribbean deployment up double digits, European capacity slightly reduced and Asia Pacific up thanks to Spectrum of the Seas' return to China.

Capacity distribution goes up to 55% Caribbean with the addition of Icon of the Seas and seven months of Utopia of the Seas with its short cruises, while Europe capacity will be at 15%, Asia Pacific 10%, Alaska 6% and the balance in South America, repositioning and expedition cruises.

 

CocoCay's Hideaway Beach sales 'going gangbusters'

Some 3m passengers are set to visit Perfect Day at CocoCay in 2024, up from 2.5m this year.

Michael Bayley, president/CEO, Royal Caribbean International, toured the private island's new Hideaway Beach last week. It's scheduled to start taking ships in January, ready in time for Icon's introduction.

Hideaway Beach sales opened three weeks ago and are going 'gangbusters,' Bayley said, with the brand already starting to push up pricing.

 

China bookings/rate ahead of 2019

Spectrum of the Seas resumes sailing from Shanghai in April and Bayley said booking volumes and rate are ahead of 2019, a record year, 'so we're feeling quite optimistic.'

In response to an analyst's question, he doesn't anticipate shifting any capacity from Northern Europe or the Eastern Mediterranean to China at this point.

 

More new to cruise and brand

Royal Caribbean Group is seeing a 'significant' increase in new to cruise and new to brand customers — in Q3, they comprised about two-thirds of its business.

 

New customers typically book short cruises and Royal Caribbean is heavily indexed on those. Liberty also said new customers are returning at double the rate than in the past.

According to him, a 1% market shift from land to cruise vacations represents the capacity of 10 or 11 Oasis-class ships.

 

'The younger generations,' Liberty said, 'are looking to us like going to Orlando or Vegas or skiing.'

 

Jason Liberty on $9-plus EPS in 2024, Israel, Europe, new-to-cruise (seatrade-cruise.com)

[Starry Eyes]

On 10/26/2023 at 11:16 AM, WeMissSeaView said:

The question is, will they pay a dividend or just pay off debt?

I’m betting they will continue to pay off debt.  They have a ton of debt which could be difficult to service if, heaven forbid, there were another serious downturn in the cruise business.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Starry Eyes