How many more times does RCCL suspends cruises before they say enough is enough for 2020 ?

[Hoopster95]

16 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

we can’t treat everyone and more people die. 

 

I agree

 

16 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

To point A, the mayors of NYC and LA have said so. 
 

 

How can you you quotes from non professionals (politicians no less) to try to strengthen your good post?

How can they possibly know or give you any pertinent advice?

 

16 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

Expectations for demands on the healthcare systems in those states suggest a return to normal conditions by 7/1 at the latest. This timeline has been confirmed by Dr. Fauci.

 

I've watched every press conference this past week. Fauci never confirmed any such thing, and they've been updating their projections daily.

 

Quote

The silver lining for areas currently hard-hit is that they will achieve herd immunity faster. 

 

Did this happen in Italy or Spain? They are still losing thousands per day. There is your real life experience and absolute 100% true fact of what happens when you have the "it can't happen to me" mentality. Note their mortality rates, and their length of time is the same as everyone else.

 

Flattening the curve by extremely rigorous testing and super strict quarantine (see South Korea) is and was the answer all along... note their curves, their mortality rates. 

 

Which example has USA following? Definitely not South Korea.

 

Anyways, likely so much of the world is already infected anyways. I suspect Corona's been out for a very long time beyond China's borders even before January, and likely some deaths from "serious flu" was Corona. I know a few people who never ever get sick, however were flat on their back for the first time in over 20 years this past winter season with fever, cold symptoms, etc etc 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Hoopster95

[pyrateslife4me84]

5 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

That is the absolute best website for tracking all this. I found it fascinating when I found it the other day. Peak here in NJ should be April 9th. Its gonna be hell all over the country this month. It does drop to almost nothing by June 1. By May its very low also. Long way to go. Doctors are Nurses are absolute Angels of America. 

Absolutely. April will be devastating in America. 

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Correct me if I didn't get your point B....

No matter whether this "curve is flattened" and this extends this pandemic, or those that are supposed to die all die quickly due to no social distancing, you are saying to have said the exact same amount of people would die either way. Therefore social distancing has no effect of saving lives, just extending those lives that would die anyways.  

 

Point A... what evidence are you sourcing?

 

By the way, the charts above... what are they for & where are they from? Do they imply there will be zero cases in mid May in Louisianna?

The charts are from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.  They can be found here https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[Hobby3333]

Come on guys.  All you have to do is drink two bottles of wine and you will have the answers you seek.  Don’t make this hard

[Hoopster95]

14 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

The charts are from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.  They can be found here https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Thank you for this. I watched Dr. Brix speak but did not look for the website or the company that produced it.

Models are only as good as the date that's been entered... I guess in a couple months we'll see how good this model is, specifically made for hospital resources, and compare to the other dozens of models they quoted.

[pyrateslife4me84]

27 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Thank you for this. I watched Dr. Brix speak but did not look for the website or the company that produced it.

Models are only as good as the date that's been entered... I guess in a couple months we'll see how good this model is, specifically made for hospital resources, and compare to the other dozens of models they quoted.

This model is unique as it is publicly available and updated daily. Our “efforts” over the last week have already led to the projected total deaths rising almost 14000. Well-done, America. 

[jamesboat]

14 hours ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

None of us have any idea what we are talking about, here. I think cruises will return this summer. I’m genuinely curious to see who ends up correct. 
 

 

You point out that many cities around the world appear to be peaking.

 

That doesnt mean much for this topic.

 

The small island countries that are cruise destinations are not going to let any ships in anytime soon. Thankfully, none of them have seen widespread virus infections, which means theyre not about to welcome the 10,000 daily cruise passengers who may or may not be infected.

[gerig]

7 hours ago, Hobby3333 said:

The COVID19 will not even reached its peak in Florida or Texas by the end of May.  RCCL needs to do the right thing and cancel all cruises until September 2020. 

Can you make that 2 days earlier?  Supposed to cruise Oasis August 30th,

[SNJCruisers]

4 hours ago, jamesboat said:

 

 

The small island countries that are cruise destinations are not going to let any ships in anytime soon.

 

So how about 6 days at sea and a visit to a private island?

3 hours ago, gerig said:

Can you make that 2 days earlier?  Supposed to cruise Oasis August 30th,

 

Sounds like the perfect prognostication to me since I'm on that same cruise.

[A&L_Ont]

3 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

So how about 6 days at sea and a visit to a private island?

 

Sounds like the perfect prognostication to me since I'm on that same cruise.

Don’t forget about hurricane season. 

[time4u2go]

3 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

So how about 6 days at sea and a visit to a private island?

 

Sounds like the perfect prognostication to me since I'm on that same cruise.

The private islands are part of other countries (Bahamas and Haiti).

[bobmacliberty]

10 hours ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Thank you for this. I watched Dr. Brix speak but did not look for the website or the company that produced it.

Models are only as good as the date that's been entered... I guess in a couple months we'll see how good this model is, specifically made for hospital resources, and compare to the other dozens of models they quoted.

 

Agreed.  Who knows how accurate the model is/will be.  They also have some assumptions about social distancing built in that could be highly variable (but hopefully within their confidence limits).  See their FAQ page.  What I like, is that the model is built for the for the health care industry to help manage resources.  They don't (as far as I can tell) have other political or profit motivations.  Unless someone has a fundamentally better model, this should be as accurate as it can get.

 

As for your earlier question about whether Louisiana will have no cases in June, here is what their FAQ says about this question (not LA specific)

Length of the epidemic

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

[RKHOOKER]

Australia’s chief medical officer advised that it is most probable the infection rate of people is between 5 & 10 times higher than the current amount of positive cases in all countries around the world.  There is a very high percentage of people carrying the virus with no symptoms.  That’s why social distancing is imperative.

[JAMESCC]

3 hours ago, RKHOOKER said:

Australia’s chief medical officer advised that it is most probable the infection rate of people is between 5 & 10 times higher than the current amount of positive cases in all countries around the world.  There is a very high percentage of people carrying the virus with no symptoms.  That’s why social distancing is imperative.

Yes sir, that is why we are going through all this. If I hear another person compare this to car accidents I'm gonna explode. The flu is dumb enough but at least its an infection. 

[jamesboat]

7 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

So how about 6 days at sea and a visit to a private island?

 

Those private islands are staffed by locals, so I wouldnt count on it.

 

The islands and other small ports (including Alaska!) simply do not have the money or infrastructure to deal with a pandemic. The best course for all of them is to keep the doors closed as long as possible.

 

I could see Mediterranean cruises returning first, but with heavy restrictions, ie, only locals. That would benefit MSC and Costa, for example, but not the lines aimed at Americans.

[Hobby3333]

I really don’t know when any cruises will sail again.  My best guess is September but who really knows.  One option that I think might happen is that a lot of the ships from Europe come to the States for a period of time.  Lots of cabins and if this does happen supply and demand kicks in.  The prices will be cheaper.  But who knows?

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, Hobby3333 said:

I really don’t know when any cruises will sail again.  My best guess is September but who really knows.  One option that I think might happen is that a lot of the ships from Europe come to the States for a period of time.  Lots of cabins and if this does happen supply and demand kicks in.  The prices will be cheaper.  But who knows?

But where would they cruise to?  As pointed out above, the typical cruise destination islands may not want ships for quite some time.

[John&LaLa]

This is interesting

http://crew-center.com/royal-caribbean-use-three-australia-based-cruise-ships-repatriate-crew-members-home

 

[Biker19]

 

5 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

This is interesting

http://crew-center.com/royal-caribbean-use-three-australia-based-cruise-ships-repatriate-crew-members-home

 

It doesn't say anything about bringing new crew on:

 

Quote

Around 600 Indonesian, Filipino, Indian and Chinese crew from Radiance of the Seas will be transferred via tender boats on Spectrum of the Seas. The ship will arrive in Bali on Thursday, April 16, where 261 Indonesian crew will disembark. The next port of call will be Manila where Spectrum of the Seas is expected to arrive on Wednesday, April 22, to disembark 577 Filipino crew. The final stop of the voyage will be the Port of Shanghai where Spectrum OTS is scheduled to arrive on Monday, May 11, to disembark 522 Chinese crew. Royal Caribbean will also try to arrange charter flights to send 299 Indian crew members back home from Bali.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Biker19

[Iamcruzin]

9 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

So how about 6 days at sea and a visit to a private island?

 

 

 

Sounds like a perfect day at Corona Cay.

[Biker19]

10 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

This is interesting

http://crew-center.com/royal-caribbean-use-three-australia-based-cruise-ships-repatriate-crew-members-home

 

I assume this is the reason Quantum is going to Shanghai - to offload its crew - I guess it had a 2 week head start on the process.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Biker19

[Billy Baltic]

A lot of talk of where the ship would go if cruising was to restart but very little about who would want to work on them. It might not be easy to find crew. 

[gatour]

22 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

 

It doesn't say anything about bringing new crew on:

 

Thanks John, that was an interesting link.

 

I imagine at this point they are going into a minimum manning mode. Keeping the enough engineering staff onboard to keep the lights on.  Enough kitchen staff to feed the remaining crew.  Laundry personal.  Things like that.

 

Not a real need to keep all of the room stewards, bar staff, waitstaff on board nor replace them.

[Junkhouse]

18 hours ago, Hoopster95 said:

Anyways, likely so much of the world is already infected anyways. I suspect Corona's been out for a very long time beyond China's borders even before January, and likely some deaths from "serious flu" was Corona. I know a few people who never ever get sick, however were flat on their back for the first time in over 20 years this past winter season with fever, cold symptoms, etc etc 

We went to Italy over Christmas, this was when there was little or no news about the virus.  The 3rd day in Rome I caught something. I've had the flu and pneumonia in the past but this felt like a combination of the 2, but not as severe symptoms  I had dry cough, low grade fever for a day, headaches, and lost a lot of my sense of taste and smell.  It took me a month to get rid of this, and when I finally went to the doctor 3 weeks into it, I was given medicine that didn't do any good until it finally went away over a week later.  Also a friend was in Spain at the same time and he caught something nasty too. Unless I get it before, I am going to get tested after this settles down.  I also had the flu shot this season and the pneumonia vaccine.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Junkhouse

[steveru621]

7 hours ago, RKHOOKER said:

Australia’s chief medical officer advised that it is most probable the infection rate of people is between 5 & 10 times higher than the current amount of positive cases in all countries around the world.  There is a very high percentage of people carrying the virus with no symptoms.  That’s why social distancing is imperative.

 

Australia had a curious initial response to Covid 19.  After we left Radiance on March 15 it was necessary for us to spend a few days at the Hilton Sydney CBD.  We witnessed large crowds of people and absolutely no social distancing what-so-ever.  Then after we left the government started the 14 day quarantine.  This was in the middle of urgent emails and Facebook posts from relatives and friends in the U.S.sounding the alarm.